July 10, 2007--The Fifth Reel

On Saturday, Ryan C. Crocker (that’s his real name), our ambassador to Iraq, when assessing the situation there, said:

In the United States, it’s like we’re in the last half of the third reel of a three-reel movie, and all we have to do is decide we’re done here, and the credits come up, and the lights come on, and we leave the theater and go on to something else. Whereas out here, you’re just getting into the first reel of five reels; and as ugly as the first reel has been, the other four and a half are going to be way, way worse.

(NY Times article linked below.)

Though I’m not sure if he’s talking about Iraq or the film Transformers, he needs to get out of the Green Zone more because there are a few other flicks he should check out because if we’re in a five-reeler and have seen only one half of the first reel, that means, at four-plus years per half-reel (that’s how long we’ve thus far been fighting in Iraq), by my math that means we have about 40 more years to go before we get to the end of his movie.

Didn’t he or any of his masters see The Battle of Algiers? If they had, and it’s only three reels, they would have seen where this one was headed and wouldn’t have had to buy a ticket for the sequel.

But in a way Crocker is right—Nightmare On Saddam Street is about to be over. At least our direct, daily involvement is about to grind down. With all the formerly-hawkish Republicans up for reelection in 2008 getting restless in their seats and about to head for or be sent to the exit, all we are waiting for now is Senator Warner (also up for reelection in Virginia, a state tipping rapidly in an anti-war direction) to suggest using the “redeployment” beard. There are even hints that John McCain, just back from Iraq with his campaign in shambles, may trot out the R-Word.

And the Bush administration is scrambling to keep things from further political disintegration—poor Tony Snow had to stand out on the humid White House lawn this morning to appear on all the network morning shows as well as the three cable news channels. He did his best to spin Republication defection as “honorable” because what Senator Domenici and others are really calling for is a way “to win” with “honor.” Actually what they are calling for is winning their own elections.

This is the good news—our troops will soon begin to redeploy. I suspect, though I support this, that the really bad news will then likely begin. Yes, the Bush team perpetrated arguably the worst foreign policy blunder in U.S. history, pretty much everyone agrees with that; but, since the results of that is the reality the world now tragically faces, who among even the most insightful can sketch out a script for an outcome other than chaos? Five reels indeed.

http://www.nytimes.com/2007/07/10/world/middleeast/10iraq.html?_r=1&hp&oref=slogin