January 3, 2008--No Big Deal In Iowa

With just hours to go before Iowans meet in caucuses to reveal their presidential preferences, all eyes are on what appear to be two extraordinarily close races—polls indicate a virtual tie between Clinton, Obama, and Edward as well as a dead heat between Huckabee and Romney. Nothing like this has ever been true so close to when the balloon goes up.

Yes, Iowa has historically been full of surprises—just ask Howard Dean about that—but since it has an uncanny record of identifying eventual nominees (did I hear that something like eight of the last twelve were Iowa winners?), the media and the larger electorate pay a great deal of attention to the outcome of the funky caucus process Iowans have devised for themselves.

Further, since Iowa is the first place voters actually cast versions of votes in national elections, the major candidates virtually move into the state and spend up to a year there working their way from large rallies (often measured in just hundreds unless Oprah, Bill, or John Mellencamp shows up) to local living rooms.

It’s what the experts call “retail politics” writ large. When after Iowa will a mega-political celebrity such as Hillary Clinton show up at the modest home of some just-plain-folks and hang out with them for an hour over coffee? Pretty much after Iowa, and to some extent New Hampshire, most campaigning will revert to fund-raising events and a rush of TV ads. There’s no other way to carry out a campaign simultaneously in New York, Pennsylvania, Ohio, California, etc.

So let’s speculate about a few potential headlines and the spin surrounding them on the Democratic side that we are likely to hear later tonight and through the days that follow.

If there is a dead heat—

Iowa Vote Indecisive. Clinton, Edwards, and Obama Move On to New Hampshire Where Senators Obama and Clinton are Running Neck-And Neck.

If Edwards comes in first—

In An Upset, Edwards Vaults Ahead of Clinton and Obama. He Now Looms as the Favorite in South Carolina. Millions of Dollars Pour In via His Website. Can He Go All the Way?

If Hillary wins—

Clinton Reestablishes Her Front-Runner Status. Supporters Claim this Again Makes Her Nomination Appear “Inevitable.”

If Obama wins—

Obama Wins Decisive Victory, Upsetting Claim that Clinton’s Nomination Was “Inevitable.” New Hampshire and South Carolina Appear Within Reach.

If outcomes of this kind are political big deals, lost in the shuffle, relegated to the back-story, is an even bigger deal: no one will be including at the top of any of these headlines that Hillary Clinton happens to be a woman or that Barack Obama is an African-American.

This is not to say that for X percent of the voters the fact that Hillary is female influenced them to vote for or against her and that the same is true because of Obama’s race. Let’s not be that naïve.

But what was it that they used to say about Virginia Slims cigarettes?

“You’ve come a long way baby.”

But though cigarette ads are banned and referring to women as “baby” is no longer politically correct, we sure have come a long way baby.