December 1, 2009--Why I Worry About Pakistan
What is it that someone said about the minds of the young and the future? I think it was, "'Give me the child until he is seven, and I will show you the man."
I was reminded of this the other day when I read in the New York Times the results of a recent poll of Pakistani youth (linked below). If these portend the future, we all should be worried. The headline might be, "Tell me about the minds of the youth and I will tell you the fate of the nation."
To quote the Times report, Pakistanis between 18 and 29 are “ a deeply frustrated . . . generation that feels abandoned by its government and despondent about its future.”
Only about one in ten has confidence in the government, most see themselves as Muslims rather than Pakistani, and very few see any prospect whatsoever that there will be jobs much less careers for them in the future. A combination that in another time and another place was referred to as “social dynamite.”
Considering the demographic bulge—the fact that these young people represent a disproportionate percentage of the total population in a country where the population has increased by almost 50 percent in only 20 years (twice the world average)--and considering the state of education, the economy, and the opportunity structure (there is little good to say about any of these), David Steven, a fellow at the Center for International Cooperation at NYU, said that though there might be social and economic change that would alter this unhealthy dynamic, it is more likely that “the other route will lead to a nightmare that would unfold over 20 to 30 years.” (My emphasis.)
We are talking about youth where only one in five have permanent full-time jobs, where half confessed that they do not have the skills needed to enter the workforce (assuming there is work for them), and one in four indicated that they could neither read nor write.
Trust in government is virtually nonexistent and thus most say that they assign their loyalty and identity to religion. Fully 75 percent see themselves as Muslims rather than Pakistanis. Not surprisingly, only a third polled saw democracy as the best system for them, about as many called for Islamic law (shariah) for their country, while another 7 percent advocated dictatorship as their preferred form of government.
All this in a country that by the most conservative estimates already has at least 50 nuclear weapons in its arsenal and the means to deliver them to distant targets.
It of course is appropriate to be concerned about North Korea and Iran, but my nightmare scenarios all center on Pakistan. Thus, like what he says or not, there will be huge implications for us tonight when President Obama announces his plans for this dangerous region.
I was reminded of this the other day when I read in the New York Times the results of a recent poll of Pakistani youth (linked below). If these portend the future, we all should be worried. The headline might be, "Tell me about the minds of the youth and I will tell you the fate of the nation."
To quote the Times report, Pakistanis between 18 and 29 are “ a deeply frustrated . . . generation that feels abandoned by its government and despondent about its future.”
Only about one in ten has confidence in the government, most see themselves as Muslims rather than Pakistani, and very few see any prospect whatsoever that there will be jobs much less careers for them in the future. A combination that in another time and another place was referred to as “social dynamite.”
Considering the demographic bulge—the fact that these young people represent a disproportionate percentage of the total population in a country where the population has increased by almost 50 percent in only 20 years (twice the world average)--and considering the state of education, the economy, and the opportunity structure (there is little good to say about any of these), David Steven, a fellow at the Center for International Cooperation at NYU, said that though there might be social and economic change that would alter this unhealthy dynamic, it is more likely that “the other route will lead to a nightmare that would unfold over 20 to 30 years.” (My emphasis.)
We are talking about youth where only one in five have permanent full-time jobs, where half confessed that they do not have the skills needed to enter the workforce (assuming there is work for them), and one in four indicated that they could neither read nor write.
Trust in government is virtually nonexistent and thus most say that they assign their loyalty and identity to religion. Fully 75 percent see themselves as Muslims rather than Pakistanis. Not surprisingly, only a third polled saw democracy as the best system for them, about as many called for Islamic law (shariah) for their country, while another 7 percent advocated dictatorship as their preferred form of government.
All this in a country that by the most conservative estimates already has at least 50 nuclear weapons in its arsenal and the means to deliver them to distant targets.
It of course is appropriate to be concerned about North Korea and Iran, but my nightmare scenarios all center on Pakistan. Thus, like what he says or not, there will be huge implications for us tonight when President Obama announces his plans for this dangerous region.
posted by Steven Zwerling at
5:02 AM
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