April 16, 2010--SCUDS

I have a cousin who lives in Israel. In Jerusalem. Though his parents are among the so-called Ultra-Orthodox, he is quite secular. He doesn't wear a yarmulka, he isn't Kosher, and if he had his druthers he'd move to the United States. He is here now visiting family members and looking around to see if he might find work. He has dual U.S.-Israeli citizenship.

The other day, over brunch, the conversation drifted toward what life is like in Israel and U.S.-Israeli relations. In regard to the latter, there was much talk by him and other family members about how though Barack Obama says the right things about U.S. support for Israel, his actions suggest he is really more pro Palestinian.

When I argued that there will be no peace or security for Israel until and unless they make a two-state deal with the Palestinians who surround them I was looked upon with skepticism and, worse, as if I were naive. He didn't express it quite this way, he is entirely too nice, but I could sense him wanting to say, "What do you know from the comfort of your life in America? You don't know what it's like living with your enemies."

In fact, more directly, my young Israeli cousin said, "Obama wants us to stop building more settlements. But we have to. Our enemies are right there in East Jerusalem, and the reason we are building more housing there is so we can secure ourselves by living right next to them." Some of my other cousins nodded in agreement.

Again out of politeness, mine this time, I did not say, but thought, "How does living closer to your enemies protect you? If you have enemies, wouldn't you want to put more distance between you and them? Or try to make a deal with them in which you both agree to end hostilities?"

We changed the subject before I could tell him that I see the Israelis to be on a ruinous path. At some point the U.S., in spite of the powerful Israeli lobby here, will realize that being joined at the hip with Israel is not in our best strategic interest--it engenders hatred for us in many dangerous parts of the world--and the best way to be a helpful ally is to press them to make a deal with the Palistinains. Endless confrontation will inevitably lead to a war of annihilation.

Further, as more time goes by the more likely it is that the Palestinians and other Arabs who live in Israel, and are citizens, will outnumber the Jews. At the moment, about 25 percent of the population of Israel are Arab Israeli citizens and they are growing in number much faster than Jewish Israelis. At some point, to contain them, Israel will likely feel compelled to set up its own version of an Apartheid system. Such a system is already half in place, with all sorts of restrictions placed on Arab citizens, but is likely to expand.

Most disturbing, before too long, the states that surround Israel, especially Iran and Syria and and Hezbollah which is located in the Syria-dominated parts of Lebanon, will so build up their offensive military capacities, that there will be no more Seven Day Wars, where Israel, with a tiny population, will be able to dominate the region with one hand tied behind its back.

Arguably, Israel "lost" the recent "war" in Gaza and, earlier, the one against Hezbollah in southern Lebanon. The next one will be even more dangerous to Israel's survival unless the U.S. in a major way intervenes directly. And how many in the U.S., if push comes to shove, will agree to join a third or fourth war in the region? Maybe only John McCain.

In truth, my cousins and I made little progress. We were all pretty dug in. But then on Thursday I saw three articles in the New York Times that offered evidence for the views I had been attempting to articulate. I will be forwarding them to my cousins as soon as I finish this.

The first reports about how nuclear weapons officials are now saying that Iran will, within the year, be able to begin to produce weapons grade nuclear material. What wonderful news.

Second, at his press conference the other day, after the nuclear proliferation summit in Washington (a historic one we might have noticed if the media could have dragged themselves from focusing most of their attention on Tiger Woods and the increasing number of kidnapped blonde girls in Florida) the Times reported that President Obama spoke about how a deal between Israel and the Palestinians was in "America's strategic interest." Not only Israel's. But ours too. Amen.

And third, there was an article (linked below) which reported that Syria has been supplying sophisticated, accurately-targetable Russian SCUD missiles to its Hezbollah friends in Lebanon. And that Hezbollah is securing them in underground bunkers. SCUD missiles that can easily reach and do serious damage to Tel Aviv.

So, I say to my truly wonderful and talented cousin, moving into the Arab Quarter of Jerusalem and the other occupied territories will not make you safer but rather will make things worse. Much worse.