November 5, 2010--Sarah In 2012

As the votes were being tallied Tuesday night, the race for the presidency in 2012 officially got underway.

The first hint of this was when some pundit on CNN, after it was clear that Marco Rubio had defeated Charlie Crist and Kendrick Meeks in the Senate race in Florida, suggested that since his was an inspiring story of the son of a Cuban exile making history wouldn't elevating him to national prominence represent an opportunity for the Republicans to restore their credibility with Hispanics after all their recent anti-immigrant ranting. Maybe even by putting young Rubio on the ticket as the GOP vice presidential candidate for 2012.

I cynically thought, absolutely--Rubio could be the Latino Dan Quayle.

Or as one passionate supporter of his on election night exclaimed without irony, "He's our Cuban Barack Obama. He gives us hope."

There was no mention of his total lack of national much less international experience or the fact that he looks 25 or that he is being investigated by the IRS for having used a GOP credit card to pay, illegally, for personal expenses. All that seems to matter these days for someone to be considered vice-presidential material, to be one heartbeat from the presidency, is that he is attractive and a Cuban-American.

But there is of course a much better example of attractiveness--Sarah Palin.

Arguable, Tuesday was her night.

More than 60 soon-to-be=sworn in Tea Party representatives and senators were heartedly supported by her and they will constitute a body of support if she chooses to give up some of her lucrative TV and personal appearance deals to run or the GOP nomination. (See New York Times story linked below.)

On her own private "news" outlet, FOX News, questioned by the soft-balling Chris Wallace, who playfully suggested that she would not run in 2012 because she was having too much fun and making too much money, in her beguiling and disingenuous way she said that she might if someone doesn't step foreward in her party to represent the needs of the people.

We know, especially now that Obama looks so vulnerable, that there are at least 20 GOP hopefuls already lined up, probably including Rubio, who I suspect by later today will be encouraged to skip the VP run and go for the presidency itself. So there is no lack of contenders eager to represent Palin's version of "the people."

But even with a room full of other GOP aspirants, this in no way means that she will not run for who among the contenders has the best chance to win the nomination? The nominees from both parties who most appeal to the bases are the ones who typically are nominated since it is the activists who, through their energy and passion, control the process. And the GOP base loves Sarah Palin.

And then, if she is nominated and loses the election, she can get right back to Fox, to "writing" books, and the lecture circuit where she will command even higher fees per appearance.

Conventional wisdom suggest that unless nominees move to the center, after running to the left or right during primary season, they are unelectable. This version of wisdom suggests, especially in the case of an ideological true-believer such as Sarah, who are reluctant to compromise, that they are unelectable in general elections.

But the same chatterers who assert this with such certainty not too many months ago were certain that the Tea Party was a Fox News perpetrated joke. Good for entertainment and media sound bites but without the lifting capacity to get anyone elected.

And then came along Scott Brown in Massachusetts who won Ted Kennedy's Senate seat with significant Tea Party support. Though his victory was discounted by the mainstream media since his opponent, Martha Coakley, was such an inept candidate, the Tea Party claimed him and they were off to the races.

After that there was Tuesday.

If you concede that Sarah Palin could win the GOP nomination but believe she would not be able to marshall the broad appeal required to defeat Obama, think again. We are living in very roiled times and if the economy is still dormant two years from now anyone opposing Obama would have a good chance of becoming president.

If you need further proof of the power of the Palin Effect, tune in Monday night to America's top-rated TV show--Dancing With the Stars. There you will find Sarah's daughter Crystal, a "teenage activist" as she styles herself, who has the chutzpah to command big fees as she runs around the country to speak, as an unwed mother, in support of abstinence. Crystal who seems lovely but who you will quickly find has no dancing ability whatsoever, has managed to avoid elimination by a vote of viewers while others who can really shake their booties have week-by-week fallen by the wayside.

Then be forewarned that these same DWTS voters are quite capable of showing up at the polls on Election Day.

20 million voted last week for their Dancing With the Stars favorites. That's about a third of the total number needed to be elected president of the United States.