March 23, 2011--It's Bahrain, Stupid
While all eyes were on Egypt and now are on Libya, we should in fact be thinking much more about Bahrain.
A couple of weeks ago I would have had difficulty locating it on a map much less knew it was the base for the U.S. Fifth Fleet. I knew even less about its strategic importance--how the unrest there is about the global struggle between Sunni and Shiite Muslims with huge ramifications for the region as well as our interests.
First, a brief review if you knew as little about Bahrain as I:
Location, location, location. Bahrain is not only about oil and the U.S. naval base; it is about geopolitical real estate. It is an island kingdom that sits in the Persian Gulf 16 miles off the coast of Sunni Saudi Arabia and right opposite Shia Iran. As one way of displaying Sunni solidarity there is a causeway, the King Fahd [of Saudi Arabia] Causeway that connects Bahrain with Saudi Arabia. The very causeway over which Saudi troops and tanks crossed last week as part of their effort to help the Bahrain royal family put down (read slaughter) Shiite protestors who were/are clammoring for more democracy. For Shiites, that is, because they see themselves, rightfully, as both the majority in Bahrain but shortchanged by the Sunni elite.
Oil, Oil, Oil. There is some in Bahrain but, by Persain Gulf standards, very little. What there is is banking, banking, banking; which, for the oil rich, is essential, especially a Bahrainian-style banking system that is designed to protect and hide and launder all those billions and trillions of petrodollars and euros.
Bur above all else, Bahrain in another convenient place where a proxy battle between Sunni and Shiites can take place. I say another since these surrogate struggles have been underway for many centuries throughout the region and during more recent decades when the Saudis supported Sunni-led Iraq in its bloody war with iran; while Iran, to challenge Saudi solidarity with the Lebanese, has been the chief sponsor of the Hezbollah-Shiite regime in Lebanon.
Enter the United States after which an even bigger mess was created. Michael Slackman, in his Sunday column in the New York Times (linked) got it about right.
Since the U.S. did not back the protestors in Bahrain in their grievances, but rather in a mealy-mouthed way merely encouraged the king to make some democratic concessions, the Shiite rebels saw inconsistency in American policy if not outright hypocrisy. Why, they wondered and are now saying more passionately as they are being smashed with the considerable help of the Saudis, why did the U.S. so quickly come to the aid of the Egyptian rebels but not those in Bahrain?
Good question with an obvious answer--Saudi oil and the Bahrain homeport for the Fifth Fleet.
On the other hand, the Saudis are almost as furious with us as the Bahrain Shiites. "What," our good friend King Abdullah of Saudi Arabia, is asking, "were we thinking when we threw our long-term ally, Hosni Mubarak, under the bus [the media's favorite metaphor for what we did to him]? Wasn't he at least entitled to a dignified exit? What would you Americans do me," the king has been wondering out loud, "and my 7,000-member royal family if my own people rose up against what they perceive to be our alleged undemocratic rule? Also, throw us under . . . ?"
More good questions. Though not with easy answers.
Though, actually, maybe there is an obvious one--As long as we get 13 percent of our oil from Saudi Arabia, the king has nothing to worry about. Americans are already getting restive as gas prices again head toward $4.00 a gallon. How would we feel if Saudi Arabia turned off the spigot and it cost us, what, $10 or $15 a gallon?
We would undoubtedly feel we have to do everything militarily possible to keep the Saudi king on his throne. As we are claiming about Libya, we would intervene for humanitarian reasons. This time not because of crimes being perpetrated against the Saudi people by their own government, but for American humanitarian reasons--$10 per gallon gasoline would be a humanitarian enough reason right here in the U.S.A. to get the Fifth Fleet mobilized.
A couple of weeks ago I would have had difficulty locating it on a map much less knew it was the base for the U.S. Fifth Fleet. I knew even less about its strategic importance--how the unrest there is about the global struggle between Sunni and Shiite Muslims with huge ramifications for the region as well as our interests.
First, a brief review if you knew as little about Bahrain as I:
Location, location, location. Bahrain is not only about oil and the U.S. naval base; it is about geopolitical real estate. It is an island kingdom that sits in the Persian Gulf 16 miles off the coast of Sunni Saudi Arabia and right opposite Shia Iran. As one way of displaying Sunni solidarity there is a causeway, the King Fahd [of Saudi Arabia] Causeway that connects Bahrain with Saudi Arabia. The very causeway over which Saudi troops and tanks crossed last week as part of their effort to help the Bahrain royal family put down (read slaughter) Shiite protestors who were/are clammoring for more democracy. For Shiites, that is, because they see themselves, rightfully, as both the majority in Bahrain but shortchanged by the Sunni elite.
Oil, Oil, Oil. There is some in Bahrain but, by Persain Gulf standards, very little. What there is is banking, banking, banking; which, for the oil rich, is essential, especially a Bahrainian-style banking system that is designed to protect and hide and launder all those billions and trillions of petrodollars and euros.
Bur above all else, Bahrain in another convenient place where a proxy battle between Sunni and Shiites can take place. I say another since these surrogate struggles have been underway for many centuries throughout the region and during more recent decades when the Saudis supported Sunni-led Iraq in its bloody war with iran; while Iran, to challenge Saudi solidarity with the Lebanese, has been the chief sponsor of the Hezbollah-Shiite regime in Lebanon.
Enter the United States after which an even bigger mess was created. Michael Slackman, in his Sunday column in the New York Times (linked) got it about right.
Since the U.S. did not back the protestors in Bahrain in their grievances, but rather in a mealy-mouthed way merely encouraged the king to make some democratic concessions, the Shiite rebels saw inconsistency in American policy if not outright hypocrisy. Why, they wondered and are now saying more passionately as they are being smashed with the considerable help of the Saudis, why did the U.S. so quickly come to the aid of the Egyptian rebels but not those in Bahrain?
Good question with an obvious answer--Saudi oil and the Bahrain homeport for the Fifth Fleet.
On the other hand, the Saudis are almost as furious with us as the Bahrain Shiites. "What," our good friend King Abdullah of Saudi Arabia, is asking, "were we thinking when we threw our long-term ally, Hosni Mubarak, under the bus [the media's favorite metaphor for what we did to him]? Wasn't he at least entitled to a dignified exit? What would you Americans do me," the king has been wondering out loud, "and my 7,000-member royal family if my own people rose up against what they perceive to be our alleged undemocratic rule? Also, throw us under . . . ?"
More good questions. Though not with easy answers.
Though, actually, maybe there is an obvious one--As long as we get 13 percent of our oil from Saudi Arabia, the king has nothing to worry about. Americans are already getting restive as gas prices again head toward $4.00 a gallon. How would we feel if Saudi Arabia turned off the spigot and it cost us, what, $10 or $15 a gallon?
We would undoubtedly feel we have to do everything militarily possible to keep the Saudi king on his throne. As we are claiming about Libya, we would intervene for humanitarian reasons. This time not because of crimes being perpetrated against the Saudi people by their own government, but for American humanitarian reasons--$10 per gallon gasoline would be a humanitarian enough reason right here in the U.S.A. to get the Fifth Fleet mobilized.
posted by Steven Zwerling at
5:20 AM
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