November 29, 2011--Smoked-Filled Room
Since there appears to be a chance that Ron Paul might have the ground game and money in place in Iowa to win the caucus there in early January, I thought I should conclude my visits among the GOP candidates by offering a word or two about him. Particularly how his strict constitutionalist libertarianism and stubborn consistency yield an array of policies that range from the inspired to the ridiculous.
At the inspired end are his positions on military intervention (we should get involved overseas only when directly threatened and with the unambiguous endorsement of Congress); drugs (we should end the war on them); the death penalty (he's against it); torture and the so-called Patriot Act (he's against both).
At the lunatic end of the policy spectrum are his views about Medicare and Social Security (since they are not explicitly mentioned in the Constitution he opposes them); the Federal Reserve (he would abolish it and allow banks to print and circulate their own currency--how 18th century); and he would eliminate the CIA and the Civil Rights Acts since, again, they are not included in the original, unamended version of the Constitution.
When he embraces these policies it leads to his casually accepting the idea that if a sick person cannot afford to pay for his care he should be allowed to die in a ditch (he once actually said this). Or his hometown of Galveston should not be helped by any government to recover from the devastating 2008 Hurricane Ike (he voted against FEMA aid).
But he has his fervent followers and funders. If you travel around Iowa and Florida and places in between the only lawn signs you see are for Paul. There is not one in sight for Romney.
Having said all this, I will take a pass on saying much more about Dr. Paul because with Newt Gingrich's rise (and lack of fall in spite of the "liberal" position on immigration he staked out at last week's debate), I see something else gathering steam. I mean smoke--a brokered convention.
In the past all conventions were brokered. Party leaders met and in legendary smoke-filled rooms bargained with each other over whom to nominate. With the primary and caucus system in place for both major parties brokered conventions these days are rare. Candidates come in with enough delegates in hand to win the nomination on the first ballot.
The last brokered conventions occurred some decades ago--Republican Thomas Dewey was nominated this way in 1948 as was Democrat Adlai Stevenson four years later. The last nominee produced by a brokered convention who won the presidency was Franklin Roosevelt in 1932. So it admittedly is a rare occurrence.
This election cycle, however, things might revert to past practice.
Traditional Republican Party leaders have been reluctant to get on board Mitt Romney's bandwagon, such as it is, and fewer than a quarter of GOP primary voters say they will vote for him in the primaries. Because most of the states in which primaries are scheduled will divide delegate proportionately--the winner does not take all the delegates--it is quite possible that in Georgia, Texas, Illinois, Missouri, Tennessee, and Idaho, among many others, Romney will get this 25%, Newt his 25%, Paul his 15%, Bachmann her 15%, Cain his 10%, and Perry his 10%. (I am assuming that by March when the proportionately-divided primaries are held Santorum and Huntsman will have dropped out.)
If this were to occur--and it could--in Tampa in August at the Republican convention a number of nomination ballots will be taken and if there are no back-room deals struck between the announced candidates the convention would in effect be turned over to the GOP establishment who would undoubtedly try to convince a Jeb Bush or a Mitch Daniels to get in the race. And one of them, or a Mike Huckabee, could win the nomination.
Among other things it would push the less-than-popular Mitt and corrupt and hypocritical Newt aside and generate a lot of excitement. A version of the kind of enthusiasm, forgive the comparison, Sarah Palin brought to the otherwise moribund McCain campaign three years ago.
The media loves an exciting political horse race and so does the public. It's like a reality TV show. For this reason as well, it is not a stretch to imagine the unfolding of such a tumultuous scenario. During the summer doldrums it could be fun. Better than reruns.
At the inspired end are his positions on military intervention (we should get involved overseas only when directly threatened and with the unambiguous endorsement of Congress); drugs (we should end the war on them); the death penalty (he's against it); torture and the so-called Patriot Act (he's against both).
At the lunatic end of the policy spectrum are his views about Medicare and Social Security (since they are not explicitly mentioned in the Constitution he opposes them); the Federal Reserve (he would abolish it and allow banks to print and circulate their own currency--how 18th century); and he would eliminate the CIA and the Civil Rights Acts since, again, they are not included in the original, unamended version of the Constitution.
When he embraces these policies it leads to his casually accepting the idea that if a sick person cannot afford to pay for his care he should be allowed to die in a ditch (he once actually said this). Or his hometown of Galveston should not be helped by any government to recover from the devastating 2008 Hurricane Ike (he voted against FEMA aid).
But he has his fervent followers and funders. If you travel around Iowa and Florida and places in between the only lawn signs you see are for Paul. There is not one in sight for Romney.
Having said all this, I will take a pass on saying much more about Dr. Paul because with Newt Gingrich's rise (and lack of fall in spite of the "liberal" position on immigration he staked out at last week's debate), I see something else gathering steam. I mean smoke--a brokered convention.
In the past all conventions were brokered. Party leaders met and in legendary smoke-filled rooms bargained with each other over whom to nominate. With the primary and caucus system in place for both major parties brokered conventions these days are rare. Candidates come in with enough delegates in hand to win the nomination on the first ballot.
The last brokered conventions occurred some decades ago--Republican Thomas Dewey was nominated this way in 1948 as was Democrat Adlai Stevenson four years later. The last nominee produced by a brokered convention who won the presidency was Franklin Roosevelt in 1932. So it admittedly is a rare occurrence.
This election cycle, however, things might revert to past practice.
Traditional Republican Party leaders have been reluctant to get on board Mitt Romney's bandwagon, such as it is, and fewer than a quarter of GOP primary voters say they will vote for him in the primaries. Because most of the states in which primaries are scheduled will divide delegate proportionately--the winner does not take all the delegates--it is quite possible that in Georgia, Texas, Illinois, Missouri, Tennessee, and Idaho, among many others, Romney will get this 25%, Newt his 25%, Paul his 15%, Bachmann her 15%, Cain his 10%, and Perry his 10%. (I am assuming that by March when the proportionately-divided primaries are held Santorum and Huntsman will have dropped out.)
If this were to occur--and it could--in Tampa in August at the Republican convention a number of nomination ballots will be taken and if there are no back-room deals struck between the announced candidates the convention would in effect be turned over to the GOP establishment who would undoubtedly try to convince a Jeb Bush or a Mitch Daniels to get in the race. And one of them, or a Mike Huckabee, could win the nomination.
Among other things it would push the less-than-popular Mitt and corrupt and hypocritical Newt aside and generate a lot of excitement. A version of the kind of enthusiasm, forgive the comparison, Sarah Palin brought to the otherwise moribund McCain campaign three years ago.
The media loves an exciting political horse race and so does the public. It's like a reality TV show. For this reason as well, it is not a stretch to imagine the unfolding of such a tumultuous scenario. During the summer doldrums it could be fun. Better than reruns.
posted by Steven Zwerling at
4:53 AM
0 Comments:
Post a Comment
Subscribe to Post Comments [Atom]
<< Home