November 12, 2012--White Men

Before we administer last rites to the Republican Party let's recall that just four years ago George W. Bush was in the last months of an eight-year presidency and before Clinton we had 12 years of GOP presidents--Bush 41 and the very popular Ronald Reagan.

But, yes, the demographics are inexorable. As everyone is noting, the percentage of white voters continues to slip (down last week to "just" 72 percent of the electorate) while Hispanics particularly are the fastest growing population cohort and they are trending more and more toward the Democrats--George W. Bush got 44 percent of the Latino vote in 2004 while Romney's portion shrank to 27 percent.

People, thus, are saying that unless the Republicans erect a bigger tent that is more inclusive of women and people of color they will be doomed to irrelevancy as demography becomes political destiny.

I, on the other hand, say that Republicans are just one appropriate candidate away from recapturing the White House as soon as four years from now. Think Jeb Bush (who has a Hispanic wife) paired with Governor Susana Martinez of New Mexico. That to me sounds like a potential winning ticket.

To get there all the GOP needs to do is join the Democrats in a compassionate immigration policy--let John McCain resurrect the deal he made with Teddy Kennedy and get his colleagues to go along with it. Or allow the comprehensive bill introduced yesterday by Senators Chuck Schumer and Lindsey Graham to proceed.

Even the Fox News right-wing demagogue Sean Hannity has already switched positions on immigration. To quote him:

We've gotta get rid of the immigration issue altogether. It's simple for me to fix it. I think you control the border first, you create a pathway for those people that are here, you don't say you gotta home. And that is a position that I've evolved on. Because you know what--it just--it's gotta be resolved. The majority of people here--if some people have criminal records you can send' em home--but if people are here, law-abiding, participating, four years, their kids are born here... first secure the border, pathway to citizenship... then it's done. But you can't let the problem continue. It's gotta stop.

If it took Hannity just a couple of days to "evolve" on the subject, I predict this will soon become the Republican party's talking point. The next time I see my Florida neighbor, Dick Morris, I expect he'll be wearing a sombrero.

Then the GOP needs to endorse and vote for a moderate set of policies that would appeal to a majority of women. Politically, they can continue to oppose abortion except in cases of rape and incest but support funding for other forms of reproductive and women's health. Even via Planned Parenthood.

They would then attract more Hispanic voters (especially those who are Catholic and socially conservative) and increase their already majority appeal to women voters. Let's recall that last week Romney got 53 percent of the married women's votes while Obama garnered only 45 percent.

So progressives like me should stop gloating about the outcome of this election and get to work rebuilding one important part of the former Democratic base--white men.

They make up 33 percent of the electorate. More than equal to Hispanics and African-Americans combined. Shrinking in numbers and self-esteem though they are, they are still to be reckoned with.

From Lincoln's day onward they voted overwhelmingly for Democrats. Until Eisenhower and then Nixon began to implement a "Southern Strategy," white men in what used to be the "Solid South" could be counted on to reflexively vote for Democrats. When Lyndon Johnson in 1964 and 65 rammed civil rights legislation through Congress, even he, a Texan, in the1964 landslide election lost five former Confederate states to Republican Barry Goldwater. And by last week, even non-Christian Romney won all but two of the former Confederate states--Virginia and Florida.

To offset the GOP's attracting more female and Latino voters as soon as 2016, Democrats need to begin to stop their gloating about last week's election and their assertion that the country's relentless demographic evolution is trending in a progressive direction. Yes, there will be more people of color and single women (at the core of Obama's constituency) but still about a third of the electorate will be frustrated white guys.

With Hillary Clinton the likely Democratic candidate four years hence, though back in 2008 she had widespread appeal among white men in the Rust Belt, this was in Democratic primaries and not the general election when a majority of them, if she had won the nomination, would likely would have voted for John McCain.

To appeal to these potential swing voters Democratic candidates need to cut down on the hot rhetoric about social issues such as same-sex marriage and women's reproductive health. Not back away from vigorously supporting them but by dampening some of the language used to make the case. It is especially important to show white men respect and not make them feel they are neanderthal Yahoos if they are not passionate about these important matters.

And Democrats would be wise not to be perceived as pandering to Hispanics and blacks and Asians when seeking their votes. These white men feel threatened by the changed role of women and the growth in the number of immigrants and new Americans who are people of color.

We may not like this and want them to accept these changes to "their" America; but if we seek to be sensitive to them and try to serve them better and secure more of their votes on Election Day, we need find ways to talk directly to them, understanding and addressing their issues and frustrations.

They hate the Ivy League educated elites who they feel are running the country and, with the exception of Fox News, the mainstream media. So, for example, it wouldn't be a bad idea, when Obama nominates Supreme Court justices, to select excellent candidates who began their education at community colleges and went to public universities and law schools. We currently have enough--all--who went to Harvard-Yale-Columbia. And when he restocks his cabinet he should name some white men who came up the hard way and talk the talk.

The Joe-Six-Pack stereotype should be shelved and respect when deserved should be the political order of the day.