September 11, 2013--Briefly: Putin & Syria

If you are wondering why Vladimir Putin appears to be helping President Obama out of his Syria dilemma--having drawn a red line he cannot enforce without securing congressional approval, which is likely not forthcoming, the answer is simple and involves, no surprise, crass self-interest.

Putin on the one hand would like to see Obama, who he can't abide, weakened and the United States' reputation taken down a notch or two; but on the other hand he is primarily concerned about his own political and literal skin--

If his ally, Syria's president, Bashar al-Assad goes down, following Saddam Hussein, Hosni Mubarak, and Muammar al-Gaddafi, there will be chaos on Russia's southern flank and an incentive for radicals in Russia's Islamic republics to ramp up their own rebellion against Russian domination.

The Cechnyans, to be sure, are watching carefully what is happening in Syria, what the U.S. will ultimately do, and most significant for their future, Putin's response to all the complexity and uncertainty.

Thus, Putin's decision to bail out Obama is really to rescue Assad from being significantly weakened by an American military strike and, ultimately, to save himself.