October 10, 2017--Madman Theory

Desperately looking for some evidence that the Trump administration's foreign policy is not totally out of control, I have been speculating (hoping) that somehow in regard to his apparent unhappiness with Secretary of State Rex Tillerson, Trump's seemingly irrational, out-of-cotrol behavior includes some larger logic. 

I have written here that though Trump appears to know nothing whatsoever about history or the ways of the world, he apparently does meet occasionally with Henry Kissinger, Richard Nixon's National Security Advisor and Secretary of State, and from Kissinger may be accepting some tutoring about how to act tough and be effective when it comes to international policy.

With the glaring exception of the Vietnam War, Kissinger and Nixon were able to do that. There was detente with the Soviet Union and the opening to China.

To that end perhaps Trump is learning about Nixon's Madman Theory. I was reminded of this earlier in the week when reading Robert Dallek's excellent, Nixon and Kissinger: Partners In Power, where he makes reference to that.

From Wikipedia, here is a succinct overview--

The theory was a feature of Richard Nixon's foreign policy. He and his administration tried to make the leaders of hostile Communist Block nations think Nixon was irrational and volatile. According to the theory, these leaders would then avoid provoking the United States, fearing an unpredictable response. 

Nixon's Chief of Staff, H.R. Haldeman wrote that Nixon confided to him: 

"I call it the Madman Theory, Bob. I want the North Vietnamese to believe I've reached the point where I might do anything to stop the war. We'll just slip the word to them that, 'For God's sake, you know that Nixon is obsessed about Communism. We can't restrain him when he's angry--and he has his hand on the nuclear button.' Ho Chi Minh himself will be in Paris in two days begging for peace."

In October 1969, the Nixon administration [via Kissinger] indicated to the Soviet Union that the "madman was loose" when the United States military was ordered to full global war readiness alert (unbeknownst to the majority of the American population) and bombers armed with thermonuclear weapons flew patterns near the Soviet border for three consecutive days. 

The [Nixon] administration employed the madman strategy to force the North Vietnamese government to end the Vietnam War. Along the same lines, American diplomats, especially Henry Kissinger, portrayed the 1970 [illegal] incursion into Cambodia as a symptom of Nixon's supposed instability. 

In 1517, Niccolò Machiavelli argued that sometimes it is "a very wise thing to simulate madness."

For the record, Nixon, though through traditional forms of diplomacy was able to make deals with the Soviets and China, the madman strategy itself did not work. 

Attempting to convince our adversaries in Southeast Asia he was crazy did not "force" the North Vietnamese to negotiate the end of the Vietnam War. We in effect lost the war. Over time we unilaterally withdrew our troops; failed to support the ongoing efforts of the South Vietnam government and military; and the North in less than a year triumphed and unified Vietnam into one country, which they then as now control.

So much for my hope that Trump's "madness" might be intentional and prove to be effective.