July 20, 2006--Geopolitical Jujitsu

Trying to understand what’s going on in the Middle East is never easy. It’s even more difficult in Wyoming at 7,000 feet with no radio that works, no TV, and the NY Times that gets to you two days late. When it gets to you at all. Which is only occasionally. About as often as the rain. It’s very dry here.

The Casper Star Tribune does arrive but it’s filled with news about forest fires, churches’ fried chicken dinners, and the latest rodeo results. Just about all the news any sane person should ever be asked to handle. But since I have to get back to New York, eventually, I feel an obligation to attempt to keep up with things my friends are right now, in the heat, obsessing about. And what I too too soon will need to join in about. So here goes what I think, without the benefit of any articles from the Times to link below.

Up to now, when attempting to understand what is going on in that region, I’ve been OK with The Law of Unintended Consequences. You know, when you do something, trying to achieve some sort of result, and something you didn’t intend happens. You could say that a lot of what is going on in the Middle East could be thought to provide proof of this Law,

But not enough, it seems to me. I suggest we think about a different kind of law for that complicated and maddening piece of global real estate—The Law of Jujitsu. According to this law you do something and you get the opposite of the result you’re seeking. Furthermore, you get an equal and opposite result, like in one of the laws of physics, where the force that you exert in the situation comes right back at you at at least the level of intensity originally applied. And further still, jujitsu-like, ironically, you are defeated as the result of your opponent using your own strength and tactics against you.

Here’s one generic example—folks in the West invented all sorts of and the Internet. All very powerful things about which we are proud and which we have been very good at turning into desirable products that are in great demand globally. In fact, because they are so pervasive, and some feel subversive of local values and cultures, in those places they are forbidden. But, and here’s the jujitsu example, those very people doing the banning of these instruments of Western penetration and influence use these things to retaliate against us—cell phones not only allow people like Bin Ladden to communicate with his followers but they are also used to detonate bombs on trains; TV and DVDs that are not be used to watch Western programs such as MTV allow images of American “occupiers” of Islamic lands to be seen in every village and hut in the Moslem world (and they also allow leading mullahs to get their messages directly to the people they want to mobilize as well as provide the means to show hostage tapes and beheadings); and suicide bombers use video cameras and tape to record and distribute their final words and messages in an effort to recruit others to their cause. Jujitsu!

Applying this Law to the current situation may also be useful in trying to understand what’s going on. I know my New York friends won’t like this, but let me here claim that Bush and his administration went into Iraq to remove a tyrant, bring freedom and democracy to millions of Iraqis, and from that successful example to set off a Democratic Domino Effect throughout that region—Saudi women would be driving cars, Kuwaiti women would be voting, and even in Lebanon and Gaza there would be free elections.

So, according to the Jujitsu Law what happened? The US did get rid of Saddam and helped bring about democratic elections which, to no one’s surprise who knew how to count, led to a government (allow me for the moment to call it that) dominated by Shiites. You know, the folks who run Iran. Beginning to see the jujitsu point?

Next the US got bogged down in Iraq. No matter what Bush, Rummy, and the generals claim, in that part of the world the fact that we are stuck there, hiding in various Green Zones, suggests weakness, not strength. With all our high-tech equipment and magnificent young people on the ground we are being pinned down, some would say defeated, by Improvised Explosive Devices—homemade bombs. Sounding familiar? Echoes of, sorry but it’s true, Viet Nam? Paper Tiger in fact.

This perception of US weakness (and I’m not talking here about “resolve” which for the moment we’re good at) has had the further jujitsu effect of emboldening the Shiite leaders of Iran, who have exerted more and more influence in the southern, Shiite slice of Iraq—where the democratically-elected government is largely located. So arguably, when the US leaves, whenever that is and no one there is in a hurry—they are comfortable waiting centuries to settle scores—isn’t it likely that the Iranians will control whatever is left of the old Iraq?

Then, back to the jujitsu theme: we did have a democratic election in Palestine—the first Domino. And what happened? The hated and feared Hamas won a solid victory. Again, the total opposite of what we wanted (and expected?). That result too should not have surprised anyone—the Arafat remnant was corrupt and Hamas did a much better job among the people in supplying services such as schools and health clinics. Wouldn’t you, if you lived there, have voted for Hamas? At the risk of getting my phone tapped and bank account spied on, I confess I would have.

So what have we been doing about the results of that free election? The usual--attempting to undermine the winners, including I contend encouraging, at least tacitly, the Israelis to reinvade Gaza.

Finally let me apply the jujitsu law to Hezbollah and the recent Israeli attacks on them. First, who unleashed Hezbollah? It would appear to be Iran. Their chief supporters and weapons suppliers. Why? Again seeing the US weakened by the boomerang effect of its own strength, they think there is an opportunity for the Shiite Hezbollah to expand their power throughout all of Lebanon. They already have a significant number of seats in the Lebanese parliament and cabinet (again, thank you democratic elections); and with the US reluctant to become directly involved in another part of the region, Iran unleashed its surrogates, thinking, if America can’t seem to figure out what to do about Iran’s move to build atomic weapons, seeing the powerlessness of all our power, it looked like a good time to say “Go.”

So Israel, understandably, bombed Hezbollah-controlled southern Lebanon and, to teach the government a lesson, significant parts of Beirut, and for good measure the roads and bridges connecting Lebanon and Shiite-led Syria.

In Jujitsu terms Israel will “win,” they have the weapon systems and know-how to do that; but in the winning, they, with us, will be the losers: Islamic people world wide will see images of Israeli bombs killing Arab women and babies on TV or via the Internet and there will be more terrorism, more flare ups that we will not be able to respond to or control.

The best evidence that this jujitsu approach is a helpful way to think about this horrendous situation is the fact that just a few days ago leaders of corrupt Arab governments in Egypt, Saudi Arabia, Jordan, etc., rather than doing what they would be expected to do—condemn Israel for their incursions and bombings—actually publicly condemned Hezbollah and its external sponsors. Why? Because these leaders are shaking in their boots, afraid they are the next to go as this jujitsu works its way around the region.

The only ones happy about this mess are the Shiite radicals and Islamists. And of course my good friends the Rapture folks who are looking forward to the imminent end of the world.

But if you have to be someplace when Armageddon comes to your town, I recommend Wyoming. The news may never even reach you. Or at worst it will be a few days late. In any case, you won’t care because you’re already in heaven.