December 12, 2006--"Thanks Condy"

Remember the Domino Theory?

For those of you too young to remember this was what worried the Cold Warriors and Neocons on the 1970s—that unless we achieved a military and political victory in Vietnam all the other Southeast Asian countries (Cambodia, Laos, Thailand) would fall to the Communists like tumbling dominos.

This of course didn’t happen. In fact just last week George Bush, who managed to avoid serving in Vietnam, made his first trip there and the Congress passed legislation normalizing trade relations with this former evil enemy. Hideously, 58,000 U.S. soldiers died there all to make Vietnam a trading partner.

But before I move too quickly to jettison the Domino Theory, a version of it seems to be unfolding in the Middle East. From a U.S. perspective, a perverted version.

Actually, it was still an operative theory when we jauntily marched off to war in Iraq four years ago. Remember how we were told that it would be “a piece of cake” and that we would be welcomed with open arms because of a pent-up desire in the region for American-style democracy and products? And that after Iraq embraced our way of life all the other countries nearby would begin to do the same—in effect, we would witness a series of dictatorial dominoes fall to be replaced by democratic governments.

To test the viability of that theory, though we know we have a mess on our hands in Iraq, we should take a look at how things are working out in the neighborhood. Egypt had a limited kind of open election not too long ago as did the Saudis, and in Kuwait didn’t they even let women begin to do some voting? Then the Lebanese have a coalition government that includes Hezbollah; and didn’t they recently expel the Syrian military which was, for all intents and purposes, occupying their country? No wonder Condi Rice was so positive about the regional situation the other day when Bush was in Jordan.

But before we imbibe too much of whatever kind of Kool-Aid she is drinking, let’s take a brief look at the “facts on the ground” in Lebanon.

Just last week, the NY Times reports, there were a series of truly massive demonstrations in Beirut, all peaceful and joyous and all calling for the current government to resign. (Article linked below.) Prime Minister Siniora was reported to have been “puzzled” by the size, duration, and demands of the protestors. Don’t we have a democratically elected parliament, he opined, and doesn’t my cabinet fully represent all the country’s political factions and ethnic groups—Sunnis, Shia, Christians, and of course Hezbollah which recently “defeated’ Israel in the south? What do these people want anyway?

Well, what the protesters appear to want is a new government, one effectively controlled by the increasingly popular Hezbollah. In fact, the Christian leaders, seeing the handwriting on the wall, aligned their party with Hezbollah and are saying, in support of the demonstrations, that isn’t this very kind of popular uprising the U. S. has endorsed in places such as Ukraine? So why not here too? But now the U.S. is claiming that that was there and this is here—and we are thus calling what is going on in Lebanon a coup d’etat.

So the dominos seem to be toppling ,and it is no wonder that one of the signs on prominent display in Beirut read, “Thanks Condy” [sic].

Thank you indeed.

And by the way, where has Condi/Condy been since the Baker-Hamilton Iraq Study group issued its scathing report? We haven’t heard a word from her about the now universally condemned policy for which she was a handmaiden. Perhaps she’s in an undisclosed location?