February 14, 2007--Libya, North Korea, and ____ ?

We appear to have made a deal with North Korea.

In effect, they will verifiably give up their nuclear weapons program and we will supply them with various forms of aid, including for their energy and food needs. And we are even dangling before them the possibility of moving toward “normalizing” relations. (See NY Times article linked below.)

I suspect this is a good deal and one that has a good chance of working for at least six reasons—

First, one of the signatories to the agreement is China and there is no way that North Korea either politically or culturally can go back on a deal struck with the Chinese.

Then, it’s a good deal for North Korea. What, after all, at the end of the day are they going to do with a few nukes that were in truth versions of duds and a bunch of rusty missiles that they couldn’t even shoot straight?

Third, for giving up in truth very little strategically the North Koreans will be getting a lot, a lot of cash and energy and food aid from the U.S., China, Russia, and Japan. Not to speak of what the South Koreans are for certain going to provide. I can already see the business elites in Seoul celebrating all the looming investment possibilities.

Fourth, the North Koreans can feel that they made the Evil Empire (us) blink. This allows them to save face when in fact they are giving up the weapon systems that are the very things that earned them a place on the world map—without nukes they’re just another backward place where half the population is starving to death.

Fifth, related to this, the way the deal is structured allows the North Koreans to feel they are a part of the world community, no longer pariahs. In the spirit that a picture is worth a thousand words, the front page photos of the very public handshakes between all six parties to the agreement is something Kim Song-Il is for certain going to disseminate widely.

And finally, it must be a good deal because former UN ambassador John Bolton and his fellow neo-cons are already leading a rising chorus of criticism Even before the ink is dry they’re screaming that the U.S. will be overcompensating the North Koreans, offering much too much in aid and other concessions as our quid to their quo. Won’t this, to quote them, show other evil-doers that “bad behavior will be rewarded”?

To this latter point I say, I hope so. There is a lot of bad behavior on display around the world, some of it quite dangerous. No need to make a list. Don’t we need to figure out how to deal with this? One way is to go to war; the other is to try to come to some sort of deal. To say you have to behave well before we’ll talk with you is at best just plain naïve.

What the agreement with North Korea suggests is that even when dealing with a hermetically sealed nation ruled but an indisputable tyrant, there is always the possibility of coming to some sort of deal that more or less works for both sides. Isn’t that they way things work in the real world?

So in fairly short order we’ve seen the “evil” Muammar Qaddafi agree to destroy his weapons of mass destruction and now there is North Korea. You may not be the biggest fan of the Bush administration but their agreeing to act, forgive me, “generously” in both situations is the way victorious or hegemonic powers have always behaved in order to bring about peace and reconciliation.

Which leads one to wonder--what next. I say, keep your eyes on Tehran.