March 5, 2014--Putin

About Vladimir Putin, George W. Bush famously said, "I looked the man in the eye . . . [and] was able to get a sense of his soul."

This was after their first meeting in Slovenia and things, to Bush, felt warm and fuzzy.

Subsequently, the new Secretary of State Hillary Clinton met with her Russian counterpart, Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov in March, 2009 in Switzerland, and to symbolize that she and Barack Obama were hoping for a "reset" in U.S.-Russian relations, gave him an gift-wrapped, actual reset button that she swiped from a Jacuzzi tub in Geneva.

On the other hand, there is Iran where Russia seems reluctant to endorse strong action in response to Iran's seeking to develop nuclear weapons and less than reluctance, intransigence in fact, when it comes to joining the West in intervening in the civil war in Syria, a client state of Russia's.

And now there is Ukraine.

It is feeling to some that the Cold War has resumed and people such as John McCain are sounding almost giddy about the possibility of dusting off the nukes.

If Barack Obama were to look in Putin's eyes, something he has clearly avoided doing, he would likely see the old KGB colonel residing there. he would peer into cold, emotionless, bitter killer's eyes. He might conclude that Putin is no partner for peace and stability but rather never stopped fighting the Cold War and couldn't care less about what the U.S or anyone in Europe might feel about his dictatorial, aggressive stance toward former coerced members of the Soviet Union.

But maybe, maybe Obama might see something else.

Back in 2008, the last time Putin's Russians intervened militarily in a former Soviet republic, in Georgia, Russia lived in a very different world. They were not then, as now, a fully integrated part of the global, especially Western economy.

There is lots of talk right now that European leaders will not act that tough when if comes to imposing economic sanctions because they are so dependent on Russian energy resources--mainly natural gas--with much of that coming west through pipelines that crisscross Ukraine.

But less discussed is the reaction within Russia to all of this saber rattling by another countervailing force--that of the hundreds of Russian plutocrat billionaires. They have a huge stack in seeing international market stability. They can't be happy seeing their wealth affected by the collapsing ruble and looming sanctions on their far-reaching operations and investments. Do not underestimate their political power. Particularly if the growing crisis further threatens their ill-gotten gains.

Then there is, my own speculation--Putin not wanting to spend his remaining years isolated in Russia, rejected by other members of the G-8. With his new girlfriend he appears to enjoy being out and gadding about, especially welcomed in places such as France where the food is so much better that Russian stuffed cabbage.