December 21, 2017--4:01 In the Morning

It's 4:01 in the morning and as I do when I wake up so early I turned on the radio to get the news. To see if we're at war with North Korea and how the Knicks did last night. (They didn't play and we're not--yet.)

On all-news WINS, the first thing I heard was Senator Orrin Hatch at the victory-lap celebration President Trump organized yesterday to gather kudos to himself after 100 percent of Republican House members and senators voted for the new tax bill.

Orrin, who needs to retire immediately, said, "You're a heck of a leader [meaning Trump]. You've done everything you promised."

I waited for the list of accomplishments but they were not forthcoming. Just waves of love. Speaking about love I was glad pathetic Lindsay Graham didn't grab the mike. It's not a lot of fun getting nauseous on an empty stomach.

I switched to another station and there was some Democrat leader gushing about how this disgraceful piece of legislation will turn out to be a political blessing in disguise for progressives. Once Trump people see how little their taxes will be cut they will feel betrayed and vote in November to flip both the House and Senate to the Democrats.

Dream on, I thought, which is not an inappropriate way to put it at, now, 4:07 A.M.

I'm not so sure "average" Americans will see their taxes lowered so little. Or actually raised, as some on the left are claiming and hoping. Those of us wishing for this may have a rude awakening. Again, as it's now 4:11, not a bad way to think about this.

Here's how things will play out, noting up front that I see this bill to be a disgrace. Even if some middle-class taxpayers will see some cuts as it plays out it will continue the redistributional process begun during Ronald Reagan time (when Orrin Hatch to that point had never seen such a heck of a leader)--the rich pay less while the bottom half pay more. 

First, as early as February most workers who have taxes withheld will see some increase in their take-home pay. Maybe as much as $50 a week. 

This in part will be because the Trump people who will create the withholding tables will sweeten them by front loading them--these workers will find more in their paychecks than they should in order to trick them into seeing the value of the tax cuts to them. When they file their 2018 taxes in early 2019 they will not get any refunds but likely will have to ante up more. By then, if Trump is still around, he'll blame this on Obama and Hillary. And Robert Mueller, if he's still around.

More ominous for liberals who are looking forward to the Trump tax cuts imploding will be the effect of the doubling of the standard deduction.

For couples that will amount to nearly $25,000 per year. For many of the 31 percent who currently itemize, this bump up will amount to a significant tax cut. And it will be a good deal for many more. Perhaps another 10 to 20 percent will stop itemizing because the standard deduction is better for them. As will be the extended tax credit for children. Using the standard deduction will make it much easier to file and, in many instances, will not require an expensive accountant to do the filing. If the number calculating their taxes this way approaches 50 percent, that's a big political story.

Finally, as with the Reagan and Bush tax cuts, folks like me (professionals, managers  government workers) who are progressives and say we oppose the regressiveness of these previous tax cuts, we were actually great beneficiaries of the lowering of the tax rates and the exemptions and loopholes that were laced into the legislation.

This will be especially true for retired people who vote disproportionately. 

In other words, don't expect a tax revolt. It will not get the political job done either next year during the midterms or two years after that. We need to do what many liberals in Virginia did--get out there and run for school boards and state legislatures. Those of us who can't or won't do that, we need to be consistently activated. We can't sit back and wait for things to get better because, on their own, they won't.

As for me----it's 4:49 and time to try to go back to sleep. No radio, and no more Orrin.