November 5, 2018--What Are We So Afraid Of?

It is not inappropriate, the day before the most consequential midterm election in memory--perhaps in all of American history--to explore the power of the defining political issue--Fear.

This time around, we really do have nothing but fear itself to fear.

Fear is the central theme, the emotion being evoked by the defining presence in the campaign--Donald Trump, who has nationalized the process. 

Rather than this election being about Congress, which by definition is what midterm elections are--they occur midway through a president's term of office, usually his first term, by its nature it is about 435 separate House of Representatives and this year 35 separate Senate contests--Trump has turned it into something different, something unprecedented. 

Because of Trump's behavior--daily or twice daily rallies, endless political tweets and interviews--this midterm is a version of a presidential reelection campaign. In this case, Trump is seeking something resembling reelection (or minimally a vote of confidence) after fewer than two years in office. 

He has absconded with the electoral process and has tried to make it all about him. 

I suspect he has succeeded. 

Instead of the Democrats having an outside chance to pick up two or three Senate seats (and thus regain the majority), as a result of Trump's endless campaigning the Republicans are likely to flip a couple of seats and thus hold onto the majority, and rather than a Blue Wave that would see Democrats flipping 50 seats in the House, it looks as if 30 is more likely (which thankfully is just enough to regain the speakership).

This is the conventual wisdom. But I worry since this also feels like deja-vu all over again, Remember how "everyone" thought Hillary would easily defeat Trump in 2016? 

Retrospectively we know that fear then was also something Trump was perversely skilled at stoking.

This time, he has focused on the alleged threat represented by a so-called "caravan" of Central Americans heading north through Mexico toward the U.S. border. Taking his talking points from Fox News, Trump, without foundation, tells those attending his rallies that not only do the marchers include "very tough people, "M-13 gang members, but also how many are infected with exotic diseases, including leprosy (which though not easily contagious sounds very frightening and, for the Evangelicals in his base, is the disease most frequently mentioned in the Bible).

Caravans of asylum-seekers are not new. There have been any number of them over the years. Most recently, in April, on Trump's watch, 1,500 headed toward San Diego. About 300 made it. Only 14 were arrested. Almost all others were mothers with young children. Objectively not much of a threat but rich fodder for demonologizing.

The current caravan is estimated to be larger. Still 800 miles from the border, based on the April numbers perhaps 700-800 will reach U.S. Customs at about Christmas time. Impartial observers report that as in the past most are mothers with children.

Nonetheless, this minimalist threat is enough to incite Trump's most fervent followers. His order to send up to 15,000 U.S. troops to join the 20,000 border patrol agents in defense of the border (which is illegal for the military to do) is a fearful over-deployment of resources. But it does contribute to fear about the magnitude of the threat. It is thus more a political than a tactical move. After Tuesday, no matter the results, expect this military ploy to evaporate from the headlines.

More disturbing, what has happened to us? To Americans? Why have we become so fearful? How can it be that this caravan of women and children is enough to paralyze more than a third of the population?

Have Americans who responded so bravely to real threats such as the attack on Pearl Harbor and on 9/11 the World Trade Center, become such wusses that we need the Army to protect us from women and children in flip-flops marching 1,000 miles to seek asylum?

For a depressing number of Americans the answer appears to be yes.