January 11, 2019--About to Be Snookered

The Democrats are about to be snookered. By, who else, Trump.

Here's how it will work--

First Trump finds himself in a losing face-off with Nancy Pelosi about reopening the government. The polls at the moment show Trump to be the intransigent one as well as the principal advocate for an unpopular concrete or steel wall.

As the crisis builds and the implications for nearly one million federal workers and contractors become dramatically clear--many do not have enough money to put food on the table or get their children desperately needed health care--and so the focus shifts from the wall and settles on dozens of disturbing human interest stories. At this stage it becomes all about "humanitarian" concerns. Even the unempathetic Trump indicated he shares these feelings during his Oval Office speech.

At this stage Trump begins to talk more and more about his power, in a fabricated "crisis," to declare a national emergency. And here's where it starts to get tricky for the Dems.

If he does declare an emergency (and, running out of options, it looks as if he will) it will effectively include the redeployment of Pentagon money and troops for the fabrication of a few miles of wall. Enough to enable Trump to declare victory and get a few photos of himself at the border in a hard hat, "supervising" the construction. 

Also, as a corollary, by invoking emergency powers Trump will in effect end the shutdown. This way he will co-opt the Democrats' agenda to reopen the government and not authorize one dollar for the wall. 

As a result, all the contested issues will become moot. The government will reopen and Defense Department money for the wall will be made available.

But here's the trickiest situation--will the Dems take Trump to court in a likely losing attempt to bock this? If they do, won't it appear that Trump wants the government to open while the grinchy Dems will in effect be calling for the courts to keep it closed?

Politically, who wins this one?

It's pretty obvious. 

Since the Dems for the moment have the upper hand I'd urge them to play it. In other words, make a deal. Look like the adults. Move on and focus on investigating Trump.