February 20, 2019--Tony Soprano

I might have misheard but early yesterday morning on CNN someone was talking about the far-reaching powers a president has during national emergencies. He claimed that these powers are so extensive and specific that presidents can arrange for contractors to undertake massive infrastructural projects without putting the work out for competitive bid. In other words he can hire anyone to do almost anything he deems to be important.

I mentioned this to Rona, who said, "Now I get it, in addition to everything else about Trump's emergency boondoggle, when declaring an emergency he has the ability to award sweetheart deals to the likes of his alter ego, Tony Soprano."

"As with everything else," I said, "when it comes to Trump, follow the money. In this case, all the way to the Bada Bing."

February 19, 2019--Master of Distraction

Being the master of distraction can cut two ways. With Trump, adept at this dubious art, it does and then some.

Take the National Emergency.

Trump was on the ropes. The Democrats in Congress (read Nancy Pelosi) were dug in. They were not going to give him even "one dollar" for his Wall. If he didn't agree to compromise (read "fold") the government would come to a halt and as with the December shutdown, Trump would lose politically and again see his poll numbers tank. They were heading then to the low 30s, pretty much for him a potential 2020 electoral disaster. 

The media covered this wall-to-wall. Even Trump's enablers on Fox News and talk radio (read Laura Ingraham and Rush Limbaugh) were restive and cranky, with Ann Coulter, hitting him literally below the belt, when she called him a "weenie."

So Trump rolled out his thus far most ambitious distraction--he made up and then declared a national emergency, knowing, but not really caring, that it will take forever to get through the courts and ultimately wind up with the Supremes who will likely declare it unconstitutional. Even Clarence Thomas might see things that way. Actually, ignore that--there is no way that he will. But expect Roberts to assure that minimally it will be a 5-4 decision.

In truth, for Trump, the more time it takes to work its way through the judicial system, the more we will be taking about nothing but,  which is his hope. It's about distraction and that's the definition of distraction--talking about something else.

As we saw on Friday the media immediately switched from obsessing about the battle Trump was having with Congress and began talking about only the emergency. To help them and to fill time they rolled out professors of constitutional law, former federal prosecutors, and Pulitzer Prize winning columnists. 

I said to Rona, if this keeps up for another two weeks I'm going to learn so much about the law that I'll be prepared to take the Bar Exam.

But there were a couple of sub-headlines buried on page 16 that ground on relentlessly. Stories that were not about the constitutional crisis but rather about Robert Mueller's investigation. 

At about the same time Trump was holding his rambling, sing-song news conference in the Rose Garden where all the questions were about the "emergency," Mueller prosecutors were in court calling for the presiding judge to sentence Trump's former campaign manager, Paul Manafort, to 24 years in prison. Effectively a life sentence for the 69 year-old Manafort. 

So expect that we will soon be back to paying 24/7 attention to Trump's legal troubles. Troubles exacerbated ironically by his use of the national emergency distraction because even some Republicans feel Trump by declaring it abused his power. Which is an impeachable offense. It was one of the charges against Nixon.

Thus, the default on all of this is the Mueller investigation. It is not going away. It is ultimately distraction proof.

For example, it is reported that Manafort is already singing like a canary and Roger Stone may be the next to flip.

February 15, 2019--National Emergencies

Republican Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell unintentionally just set the agenda for the Democrat who will be elected in 2020 to succeed Trump as president.

He was good enough to set both the programmatic and the strategic agenda. With the latter being about how to govern.

Thank you Mitch.

Mitch did this when attempting to discourage Trump from declaring, in his case, a phony emergency.

Do not declare a national emergency, he urged Trump, to get your way with the border wall because if you do you will set a precedent for future presidents. Like the Democrat who will come after you in less than two years. A progressive who might use your precedent to declare emergencies involving gun "rights" and the climate.

When it comes to Trump, McConnell is whistling in the wind because for Trump there are no precedents. A precedent is something that applies to the future, but with Trump there is no such thing as the future. He is all about the now, caring only about himself, ignoring who or what comes next; and thus he will declare an emergency this morning to allow him to reap political credit from his base (meaning Ann Coulter, who two days ago called him a "weenie,"  and Sean Hannity) for building, or pretending to build the wall.

But for a normal person who might become president, governing by the strategic use of national emergencies in an era where nothing can be enacted by a broken and hyper-partisan Congress may make sense and to declare at least two emergencies--one to deal with the scourge of weapons of mass destruction in the hands of murderous people and the other for another genuine emergency, global warming--sounds like a plan for Kamala Harris or Joe Biden or Amy Klobuchar.

January 11, 2019--About to Be Snookered

The Democrats are about to be snookered. By, who else, Trump.

Here's how it will work--

First Trump finds himself in a losing face-off with Nancy Pelosi about reopening the government. The polls at the moment show Trump to be the intransigent one as well as the principal advocate for an unpopular concrete or steel wall.

As the crisis builds and the implications for nearly one million federal workers and contractors become dramatically clear--many do not have enough money to put food on the table or get their children desperately needed health care--and so the focus shifts from the wall and settles on dozens of disturbing human interest stories. At this stage it becomes all about "humanitarian" concerns. Even the unempathetic Trump indicated he shares these feelings during his Oval Office speech.

At this stage Trump begins to talk more and more about his power, in a fabricated "crisis," to declare a national emergency. And here's where it starts to get tricky for the Dems.

If he does declare an emergency (and, running out of options, it looks as if he will) it will effectively include the redeployment of Pentagon money and troops for the fabrication of a few miles of wall. Enough to enable Trump to declare victory and get a few photos of himself at the border in a hard hat, "supervising" the construction. 

Also, as a corollary, by invoking emergency powers Trump will in effect end the shutdown. This way he will co-opt the Democrats' agenda to reopen the government and not authorize one dollar for the wall. 

As a result, all the contested issues will become moot. The government will reopen and Defense Department money for the wall will be made available.

But here's the trickiest situation--will the Dems take Trump to court in a likely losing attempt to bock this? If they do, won't it appear that Trump wants the government to open while the grinchy Dems will in effect be calling for the courts to keep it closed?

Politically, who wins this one?

It's pretty obvious. 

Since the Dems for the moment have the upper hand I'd urge them to play it. In other words, make a deal. Look like the adults. Move on and focus on investigating Trump.