March 20, 2020--Coronavirus

I've been wanting to write about COVID-19 but thus far have been unsuccessful.

Everything meaningful seems to have been explored, even what we might learn from Daniel Defoe's 1722 novel, Journal of the Plague Year, which is about the 1665 Bubonic Plague. Quit a bit, actually.

But when reading about the current flu season (as distinguished from COVID-19) I have a few questions. 

I am hesitant to pose them, concerned that I will be viewed as being insensitive or, minimally, not yet ready to go along with the conventional wisdom.

Let me begin by citing a few statistics from the Centers for Disease Control (CDC)--

As of yesterday morning in the U.S. there were between 36 and 51 million cases of the 2020 flu.

They have led to between 17 and 24 million medical visits.

In turn, there have been 37,000 to 67,000 hospitalizations.

Tragically, there have been 22,000 to 55,000 deaths.

In regard to the coronavirus, as of yesterday morning there were 10,691 confirmed cases in the U.S.

Of these, 10,424 were so-called "active cases" and 64 (or 1 percent) "serious or critical."

There have thus far been 160 deaths nationwide.

I am not good with numbers and even less adept at statistics. For example, in regard to the 2020 flu data, I do not know why there is such a wide disparity in regard to hospitalizations and deaths. But the comparative numbers between COVID and the basic 2020 flu are stunning enough to cause me to be skeptical about what we have thus far faced and what is ahead of us.

I know I am comparing apples and oranges--the 2020 flu has by now nearly run its course whereas COVID-19 is in its early or mid stages. And the viruses that do the infecting emerged from two very different kinds of pathogens.

But again, in spite of this they are both viruses and the huge difference in the numbers suggests that we should be talking publicly about this as it might contribute to refining our approach to data collecting and reporting and double-check to make sure our health policy is as effectively targeted as possible.

With that said, we should take every precaution that is recommended. It would be irresponsible to behave in any other way.

Still, can those of you who know how to run and understand numbers straighten me out? 

Or is it possible that we as a nation are doing a little overreacting?