July 28, 2020--Playing The White Card

There was a tsunami of political polls last week.  They tell one consistent story--Joe Biden is increasing his lead over Trump in every demographic category but one. 

Be it the ABC-Washington Post, Quinnipiac, or even the Fox News poll, Biden has opened double-digit leads among senior citizens, young voters, Hispanics, and African Americans among others.

The one demographic outlier is support for Trump among white voters. In the aggregate, across all age groups, 49 percent of white voters support Trump while 42 percent say they plan to back Biden. And with white people without college degrees Trump's lead is even larger--an unfathomable 57 to 35 percent.

This is both curious and significant. Curious because it stands out so starkly while on the other hand it is concerning since white people make up 61 percent of all voters and that means if Trump does exceptionally well among them he has a fighting chance to be reelected.

Is it "only" racism that is responsible for these numbers? 

I suspect for a good half of them it is. But that gets us just part way there. Racism is deeply rooted. Slavery, for example, has existed in America for more than 400 years. That is the definition of deeply rooted.

What then about the other reasons a majority of white people appear to support Trump?

Is it racism that a large percent of them are attracted to Trump's tell-it-like-it-supposedly is style? Especially when he attacks the coastal elites in the media, universities, and among the professional class?

Is it racism when Trump talks about the concerns of suburban "housewives" and a percentage of "stay-at-home moms" find his message resonates? And then there are Trump men who, proverbially, want their woman "barefoot and pregnant."

Is it racism when some white women like their men extra-macho and somehow, though hard to believe, find Trump to be attractively so?

Of course, some of this also includes a racist component. For example, the suburban women he is desperate to appeal to are white women, the same white women 52 percent of whom voted for him in 2016. When Trump turns his attention to suburban women he is not thinking about women of color.

My bottom line--the business of gender and race and voting is more complicated and unpredictable than it at first might seem. Thus the reasons why, say, a large percentage of white women voted for Trump four years ago and might do so again needs to be understood, even if one dislikes what is discovered.