April 17, 2014--Today's Luddites

A young friend who is making his way quite nicely in the IT field (he is a software builder with investable ideas for a company of his own) was talking the other night about the Luddites.

In addition to being impressed that he knew anything at all about them, he had interesting things to say about today's version.

We began by comparing the power of the Gutenberg Revolution with the advent of the Internet--"I think," he unsurprisingly said, "that the Internet will prove to be an even more powerful cultural and work-shifting technology. Everything is and will change, from knowledge acquisition to the way work is structured."

Though two generations removed from his, though feeling threatened by so much change that I do not and never will fully understand, I agreed. But, I wondered, as we moved on to compare the structure of work brought about by the Industrial Revolution with the Cyber Revolution, that the changes we are seeing globally are likely to be much more disruptive than those brought about when we shifted, less globally, from an agriculture-based economy to one dominated by machines and mass production.

"You're making my point for me," he said, wanting to retain control of the direction of the conversation. "But though I am in my small way contributing to these paradigm-shifting developments, I am worried about some of the trends that I see, unintended consequences--there are always some--that may not turn out to be either benign or progressive."

"Say more," I said, pleased to cede the direction of the conversation to him.

"In the past, the actual, historic Luddites got it wrong. They thought that brining waterpower and machines to the manufacture of textiles would both alienate labor further and ultimately lead to fewer jobs--machines would replace workers."

"What you're saying is correct. They did go about literally and metaphorically smashing the very machines that they felt would replace them."

"And they turned out to be wrong. Right?"

"Say more."

"Rather than replacing workers, though many were dislocated and/or needed to learn machine-based skills, over time the capital invested in mechanization, which temporarily shifted the economic balance more toward capital (things like machines and factories) than workers and wages, over time--and this is important--the balance shifted: more workers were ultimately needed and the demand for them, plus unionization, led to higher wages."

"Correct. Classic economic theory," I said, wanting to sound relevant, "says this is what happens historically as the result of capital outlays and aggregation."

"But back to my but," he pressed, "I do not see this happening now. And maybe it will not happen even during the upcoming decades."

"What won't be happening?" I admitted to myself that he was leaving me behind.

"IT, information technology . . ."

"I know what IT is."

He smiled at me. "It may turn out that IT will permanently not only dislocate workers but also make much of human, hands-on work work itself redundant."

"Redundant?"

"OK, obsolete. No longer needed. And, here's the worry, this may wind up permanently replacing the old, classic economic model. We may see a longterm shift in the balance between capital and wages. A shift in the direction favoring capital. The data in many countries, very much including ours, are trending in this direction."

"OK. But what about the Luddites?"

"Well, it may be a generational thing--with people from, forgive me, your generation serving as the contemporary Luddites. You, I mean they," he smiled again, "may be decrying these cyber innovations because you, I mean they, are feeling left behind by more than age. But, they may be right."

"Slow down. You're losing me. Right about what?"

"That the new machines, actual and virtual, will in fact replace hands-on workers (except maybe in health care and restaurant work). Replace them for the foreseeable future. Maybe permanently. Maybe if displaced, redundant workers acquire new skills there may not be enough jobs for them. Look at what goes on in auto assembly plants these days. Cars are now made more and more by robots. Yes, at the moment humans have to make the robots but after they are deployed (capital investment) very few actual workers are needed. Just maybe to grease the machines and manipulate them via computers."

"Wow," I couldn't help but say. "That's quiet a future you're presenting."

"To be truthful, these are not only my ideas. There are people who know tons more than me about this who are studying what's going on and alerting us to the changes."

"I know that," I said. "I've been reading some of their stuff too."

"And I'm seeing it where I work. What in the past would have required dozens of workers requires very few. Considering the economic size and reach of a Google and a Facebook, to mention a couple, they have relatively few workers. That's one reason they're so profitable. And my own guess is that if you look at them five years from now they'll be even bigger and will have even fewer employees. This is a very big deal." I

"Could you pour me a little more wine? I need some." I slid my glass toward him.

While doing so, he concluded, "In other words, you Luddites are right!"

December 12, 2013--On Demand

We're trying to cut back on our TV watching; but with all the newfangled ways to watch, this is proving to be difficult.

Our cable systems both in New York and Maine for some years have offered On Demand as part of their basic package. It in theory allows one to watch favorite shows after their initial broadcast date, and so if you were out late on Monday night you could catch Dancing With Stars later in the week. I say theoretically because we have used On Demand only sparingly since I've not always been able to figure out how to make it work and at those times I was able to, On Demand service often was experiencing technical difficulties.

But recently, either I've gotten better at this or they have improved their service and so we've been glued to the screen more than we would like.

Homeland has contributed to our undoing.

We'd been reading and hearing about it for quite some time and, desperate to find something decent to watch, and not interested enough to even check out the Duck people or the Kardashians, we reluctantly subscribed to Showtime so we could watch the first two seasons via On Demand.

There are 13 episodes a year and we knew that if we got hooked we'd have to watch two year's worth,  26, before being up-to-date sufficiently to enjoy the current, third season.

And hooked we became even before watching half of the first episode. We fell quickly in love with Carrie, Sergeant Brody, and the Mandy Patinkin characters and stayed up until 1:00 AM, intoxicated after watching the first four episodes.

Rona said to bleary-eyed me, "How about one more? Just one more?"

"You said that at 11 o'clock, two episodes ago, and here we are and it's well past midnight. We can always . . . There are more than twenty . . ." I think those were my last words before I nodded off.

When I got up at later in the morning, about 6:30, unusually--since Rona likes to sleep to at least 8:30--she was literally lying in wait for me.

"Are you OK?" I mumbled, half-asleep.

"I'm fine. Just waiting for you to get up so we can watch a couple of episodes before breakfast."

"You've got to be kidding. Can't we wait until after we've had coffee?"

"I thought we could then finish the first season. We'd only have seven or eight to go and . . ."

"Seven or eight translates into seven or eight hours! Are you sure that . . ."

Rona was already heading downstairs to get the coffee going.

We gulped our coffee and by 7:30 I was fiddling with On Demand--which fortunately was working--and we plowed through the rest of the initial season.

"And then this evening we can get started on season two," Rona chirped.

This was two weeks ago. By now we have watched both the second season of Homeland and are up to date with this year's episodes--three to go. We are on tenterhooks to see what will happen to Brody in Iran. Will they kill him off? Will he rehabilitate his reputation by helping to overthrow the Iranian government? Will . . . ?"

And while we've been at it, to be able to tune into other TV shows we missed, we subscribed to Netflix and got our hands on all 13 episodes of House of Cards, which, as with Homeland, we joyfully watched marathon-style. Kevin Spacey is so deliciously evil.

Eager to be set for season two, I did a little googling and found that Homeland was not released in the normal way--assuming anything of this sort is normal these days. Produced by Netflix itself, not a traditional source of programs, all 13 episodes were released the same day--February 1, 2013--which meant that someone thus inclined could watch all 13 that day or in any way they wished to space them out: two at a time, one-by-one each week at the same time like a normal TV series, or whatever.

"Welcome to the brave new world of TV," Rona said when I reported this to her.

"Actually, it's welcome to the brave new world of the Internet since I'll bet most of House of Cards' younger viewers watched it on their computers."

"Or smart phones or tablets," Rona added. "Whatever those are."

I have a friend who works for a technology start up. I asked him, "Is it true that you can work whatever hours are best for you? From home as well as the office? Do they give you free snacks and take care of your dry cleaning and pets?"

"I don't have a pet; but, yes, I can bring my dry cleaning to the office and do my thing from anywhere. That's the way I work," he said, sensing I wasn't getting it.

"And the people you report to are OK with that?"

"As long as I get the job done and they like my work product. But, you know, there's a new manager who wants us to work more collaboratively, including taking breaks at the same time so we can have coffee together and chat."

Since I had been thinking about TV, I asked how much he watched.

"Quite a lot, though I don't actually have a TV. I pretty much stream everything."

"I was wondering about that," I said and told him about our experience with On Demand and Netflix.

He smiled, amused that someone as technologically skeptically and illiterate as I would be venturing into this new territory. He didn't have to add--someone from my generation!

"Here's what I worry about," he is informed and well-read for someone from his generation, "I'm concerned that these ways of working and entertaining ourselves are contributing to a generation of people who have no ability to suspend gratification--that we're becoming an on-demand world."

"That concerns me too."

"A nation of people bowling alone."

With his thoughts preoccupying me, I still can't wait to see what happens to Brody in Iran and if Kevin Spacey gets his comeuppance February 14th when all 13 second-season episodes of House of Cards will be streamed by Netflix.

"Get your rest," Rona suggested.