February 17, 2010--Evan, Sarah, and Hillary?

Evan Bayh's joining Sarah Palin in retirement from political office in order, like her (wink), to serve the American people better from out of office, made me think about what he might really be up to.

Actually, also like her, maybe he is quitting the fray in order to serve his own personal political ambitions while freed from being tied down to a day job. It is widely thought in Indiana that he will run for governor in 2012 and after winning (the Bayh name there is revered) gin up a campaign for the 2016 presidential race. He is still brooding that Barack Obama didn't pick him to be his vice presidential running mate and, who knows, rather than pursuing the governorship in two years maybe he'll try to get even with Obama by attempting to wrest the nomination from him.

It has happened before--a sitting president having to take on challengers in order to secure a second-term nomination. In 1968, for example, anti-Vietnam-War candidate Eugene McCarthy challenged President Lyndon Johnson and did well enough in the early primaries to force LBJ to declare that he wouldn't seek reelection. And then more recently, in 1976, Ronald Reagan mounted an almost-successful effort to deny the Republican nomination to then sitting president Gerald Ford.

So keep an eye on Evan.

And while you're at it, keep an eye on Hillary. Yes, her.

Though after Obama was elected, assuming he would win reelection in 2012, she indicated that she would not be a candidate eight years later in 2016. By that time, she said, she would be 68 and that was too old to mount another grueling campaign. And then, when he named her to be his Secretary of State, she announced that this would be her last political job.

But then a month or two ago, she let it be known that if Barack Obama is reelected she would not serve during his second term. Everyone assumed that she was already feeling the weight of her impossible assignment and was looking forward to a less demanding life. Who could blame her.

Then two days ago, while in Saudi Arabia, she was quoted as saying that she didn't fear a Sarah Palin presidency and wouldn't move to Canada if she were elected.

This caused me to wonder if maybe Hillary is still thinking about the presidency. She could have held off announcing after just one year as Secretary of State that she was in effect a lame duck and she could easily have dodged the Sarah Palin question, saying it isn't proper to talk about American politics while out of the country.

If I were Sigmund Freud I would think that maybe she has the presidency very much in mind. At least somewhat subconsciously.

She might very well be thinking, when considering Sarah Palin's prospects, "I'll be damned if I let that empty dress become the first female president. It's bad enough that Madeleine Albright beat me to becoming the first women to serve as Secretary of State."

And if she confided this to me I would ask, "You mean that though you'd be 68 in 2016 you would be again willing to run around Iowa and New Hampshire?"

And if she were being completely honest with me, she might say, "Well, how does running for the nomination at 64 sound to you?"

"You mean," I would incredulously say, "You are thinking about running against Barack Obama in 2012?" She would likely just smile back at me. "And if you did, what would your campaign look like? I mean, what would be your case to unseat him?"

"We're talking very theoretically, right?" I would nod. "Well, I might say that it grieves me to say this but I was the one in White House discussions who had to push him to take a tough line against Iran and pressed for the surge in Afghanistan. He was committed to dealing with these issues diplomatically. He is inclined that way, and that doesn't work in the dangerous world in which we find ourselves. You need someone tougher in the White House. And that's me. I'm the one still better prepared for those 3:00 AM phone calls."

Clearly she would be warming to the subject. "And on the domestic front?"

"Well, with a touch of disappointment and sadness, I would say that here too he has not been as effective as I and the country hoped. What significant legislation got passed by Congress? We have no health care reform, unemployment is still unacceptably high, nothing got accomplished about the energy or the environment or education. I too believe in a bipartisan approach but clearly this hasn't worked. Look how polarized we have become. And he, as nice as he is, didn't have the necessary toughness to twist arms and threaten members of his own party to get them to vote for things he and Americans cared about. I am someone who can do that.

"And remember, toward the end of the primary campaign the last time around, I was the one who did well in Ohio and Pennsylvania where the economic situation was hitting people the hardest, and that's where even an unfriendly press said I found my voice. Remember that? And do you remember who won those final primaries? I did. And I can do it again. That is, if I decide to run."

From the way she sounded to me, if she had confessed her inner thoughts, it appears that she is at least half way there. She could be the Gene McCarthy of 2012. And might be the best one to take on the Glenn Becks and Sarah Palins.