March 11, 2015--iWatch

Though many financial analysts and new media savants are predicting that Apple will sell tens of millions of iWatches, though I know relatively little about the new media and less about iSales, I am predicting that the new watch will be Apple's version of New Coke.

Though some kids are probably already camped out in front of Apple stores around the world waiting for the April launch, the watch is going to be an embarrassing flop.

For two or three basic reasons--

First, since to make the watch perform buyers will also need a switch-on iPhone to power the watch's features, the watch will not replace the phone but rather live off it as a version of an electronic parasite, draining down the phone's battery life, which already, even without the watch living off it, can be a problem for heavy iPhone users.

Second, who really needs an iWatch? What's so new about it that millions will shell out at least $350 to buy one? The fact that you can monitor your heart rate continuously? What Millennial 20-year-old cares so much about that that they'll want to have their heart thumping away all day on their wrist? I think not that many.

Third, the new Apply leadership forgot one of Steve Job's most important insights--to make sure that even if a new product does not initially address an unmet need, at the very least it should be sleek and aesthetically beautiful.

The iWatch looks more like a Mickey Mouse watch than a MacBook Air. It's chunky, the opposite of sleek and cool. And how many young people wear watches these days anyway? Almost none. So how will Apple convince millions of them to buy a clunky watch with a cheesy plastic band that looks more like those Medical Alerts old folks wear to call 911 in an emergency?