April 29, 2016--Apple of Discord

Apple, Inc. by capitalization is the world's largest corporation valued at more than $700 billion.

Earlier this week they reported second quarter earnings.

For the first time in 13 years they not only failed to meet earnings projections but saw revenue fall in comparison to last year's Q2 income by nearly $7.5 billion. Down to $50.6 billion from $58.0.

Third quarter projections are looking even bleaker.

What's going on?

Mainly problems with iPhones, the company's cashest cow since it was first released in 2007.

This past quarter iPhone sales were down by 10 million units--51.2 compared to 61.2 in 2015.

This may be cyclical--people holding on to their current phones in anticipation of rushing to line up to buy the new model later this year. Or, it may be that the air is beginning to come out of Apple's balloon. I almost said bubble.

Since Steve Jobs died, new products have all been pretty much failures. The Apple watch, for example. Anyone know somebody who owns one? I don't.

The Apple we know is still Job's company. What has been and still is profitable are all things designed and marketed during his brilliant time heading the company--iPods, iPads, MacBooks, tablets, and of course iPhones. All the ongoing success derives from the momentum he imparted to the company.

Further, Apple has been the go-to place for consumer electronics in large part because its products have been aesthetically beautiful and, more important, "cool."

Thus Apple is vulnerable because so much of its success depends on its continuing to be convey status.

This could evanesce in a hurry if someone else's smart phone--the Samsung android, for example--is viewed to be cool.

Cool, by definition, doesn't last forever. In fact, iPhones have been most desirable for much longer than the past history of cool things might suggest.

As soon as the kids and hip-hoppers move on to whatever becomes the "latest," that will be when we really will see Apple's earnings and stock value fall off a cliff. This is apparently already happening in China.

If I had any Apple stock, I'd get out of it right now.

March 11, 2015--iWatch

Though many financial analysts and new media savants are predicting that Apple will sell tens of millions of iWatches, though I know relatively little about the new media and less about iSales, I am predicting that the new watch will be Apple's version of New Coke.

Though some kids are probably already camped out in front of Apple stores around the world waiting for the April launch, the watch is going to be an embarrassing flop.

For two or three basic reasons--

First, since to make the watch perform buyers will also need a switch-on iPhone to power the watch's features, the watch will not replace the phone but rather live off it as a version of an electronic parasite, draining down the phone's battery life, which already, even without the watch living off it, can be a problem for heavy iPhone users.

Second, who really needs an iWatch? What's so new about it that millions will shell out at least $350 to buy one? The fact that you can monitor your heart rate continuously? What Millennial 20-year-old cares so much about that that they'll want to have their heart thumping away all day on their wrist? I think not that many.

Third, the new Apply leadership forgot one of Steve Job's most important insights--to make sure that even if a new product does not initially address an unmet need, at the very least it should be sleek and aesthetically beautiful.

The iWatch looks more like a Mickey Mouse watch than a MacBook Air. It's chunky, the opposite of sleek and cool. And how many young people wear watches these days anyway? Almost none. So how will Apple convince millions of them to buy a clunky watch with a cheesy plastic band that looks more like those Medical Alerts old folks wear to call 911 in an emergency?

November 13, 2014--T-Shirts Make the Man

Like so many other things in Silicone Valley this trend likely started with Steve Jobs, for many years Apple's guiding genius.

Once, twice a year he would stride out on stage at their headquarters in Cupertino, CA, for a show-and-tell that featured the latest iPod, iPad or iPhone. Prior to that this was not what traditional CEOs did to launch their latest products. They would hang back in their corner offices and leave it to the sales and PR people to announce new Game Boys or office software.

Jobs, super salesman and egoist that he was, did this himself in dramatic fashion--in dark ambient light with only him, the Apple logo, and the newest MacBook Pro theatrically illuminated. And rather than appearing in a bespoke suit and Turnbull & Asser shirt and tie, he wore lived-in jeans and a body-revealing black mock-turtleneck shirt with the sleeves pushed up.

This became just as much his signature look as Gloria Steinem's aviator glasses or Donald Trump's comb-over. It also set the tone for other IT magnates. Everyone from Microsoft's CEO Steve Ballmer to Facebook's Mark Zuckerberg subsequently took to rolling out new products and services casually dressed. Zuckerberg shows up in his legendary hoodie or, more recently, in his Steve-Job's jeans and short- or long-sleeved T-shirt.

As reported in Tuesday's New York Times, Mark Zuckerberg, in spite of appearances, thinks a lot about his--if I can call it that--attire.

He wears an identical gray T-shirt every day. He said, "I want to clear my life so I have to make as few decisions as possible beyond serving this community." (My italics)

I get it--not having to think about clothes clears his mind. He avoids the angst of needing to think should it be the gray T-shirt again or maybe a blue or black one. It also saves closet space--one drawer is all he needs for a half dozen or so.

In the Times piece he did acknowledge Steve Job's inspiration--well and good--but claimed he is also influenced sartorially by Barack Obama.

Yes, he did comment about the "simplicity" of Obama's wardrobe. He didn't elaborate, but I suppose he means that Obama always turns out in one of his signature navy or dark gray Hart Shaffner Marx suits. Like Zuckerberg that too enables the president to make as few decisions as possible while serving the community. In his case that community being the United States of America.

In the meantime I worry about poor Steve Ballmer, former CEO of Microsoft, and Eric Schmidt, chairman of Google. Both are far from buff, a bit roly-poly and though they try to look sleek and youthful, when they appear on stage to reveal the latest in cloud computing or Google Glasses in their version of Jobs-Zuckerberg outfits, they look a bit disheveled.

But at least they don't try to stuff themselves into T-shirts.