May 3, 2017--Jack: One Smart Cookie

This time I called Jack.

I was so upset by President Trump's erratic behavior during the past 48 hours that I wanted to talk to a fervent supporter of his in the hope he could talk me down, get me to see things in a different light. Or, failing that, talking with him would give me the opportunity to vent. Irrationally, to hold him responsible for the Trump presidency.

Considering what was going on in Washington I knew Jack wouldn't be reaching out to me so I dialed him up. I got his answering machine and left a neutral-sounding message so as no to scare him off. He called back in less than half an hour.

"I know why you're calling."

"Really?" I tried not to sound aggressive or sarcastic.

"You never do. I mean, call.  So I assume it's not to talk about the weather, which by the way, is beautiful. Fifty-five and sunny."

"You're right, I'm calling to talk about your boy." So much for my trying to sound moderate.

"What is it about? North Korea?," he said in a mocking tone, "NAFTA? The Philippines? Andrew Jackson and the Civil War?"

"All of the above and then some. What's going on with him? It looks as if he's spinning out of control."

"It's Trump being The Donald. That's the two sides of him, Trump the serious person and The Donald, the adolescent."

"If you're feeling this way, considering that to you he can do no wrong, things must be worse than I imagined."

"Let's talk about North Korea," Jack said, sounding reasonable.

"Shoot. Sorry, not 'shoot,' I mean go on."

"You're all upset that he's willing to meet with Kim Jong-un?"

"No, in fact," I said, "under the right circumstances I'd be in favor of that. Maybe it could help calm things down. I mean Trump is talking about the possibility of 'a major, major conflict.' I don't think even supporters like you are eager to see that."

"Not eager, but if all else fails I'd rather see military action soon rather than after Kim has nuclear weapons and missiles that can reach the United States."

"I don't know what to say about that. I can't think my way to a solution. It could come to . . . I can't say the words."

"So," Jack asked, "are you all bent out of shape because you didn't like Trump calling Kim a 'smart cookie' and that he'd be 'honored' to meet with him?"

"That's closer to what's making me crazy."

"So let me try to help you out."

"I'm listening."

"If we want to avoid war, which could easily kill and maim millions, including thousands of Americans, and if China is not willing to fully pull the plug on the North Koreans, and if resuming the six-party talks we had during the Clinton and Bush administrations is a nonstarter, a one-on-one between Kim and Trump might be the last best hope before declaring war."

"You mean art-of-the-deal style?"

"Trump fancies himself the best negotiator ever and probably thinks, grandiosely, that he could strike a deal with Kim. I think he sees some of himself in Kim. Or Kim in himself. Someone very connected to his father, who, when his father died and Kim was only in his twenties, took control of the country and has seen it get stronger.

"There was a long article in your New York Times on Sunday about how the North Korean GDP is growing and small businesses are coming into being. Obviously I'm not seeing any of this as good, particularly the brutal ways in which Kim consolidated and maintains his power. But it is a version of the truth and is sort of similar to Trump's life. What you in one of your blogs called 'the daddy problem.' Again, no value judgements intended. I'm simply trying to be coldly objective."

"It's not easy to go along with this--Kim is a monster--but I'm not hanging up on you."

"Well, Stalin was a much bigger monster who killed tens of millions of his own people and your boy Roosevelt thought he could deal with him, again, one-on one. Didn't he at one of the conference among the wartime allies, near the end of the Second World War, didn't Roosevelt push Churchill aside so he could have direct access to Stalin? And they did make some deals, didn't they? Historians tend to feel Roosevelt wasn't at the top of his game--he died shortly thereafter--but this is still a potentially valid historical parallel."

"So Trump would be 'honored' to meet with him? That Kim is a 'smart cookie.'"

"I could do without that. It was a stupid way to put it, but that was The Donald speaking."

"He can't walk that one back. Even Republicans are going crazy about it."

"I also thought that was stupid and . . ."

"'Thought' or 'think'? What tense do you mean?"

"'Thought.' Past tense because I have a new view about it now."

"Which is?"

"Maybe, maybe underlined, it's Trump not just being crazy but crazy like a fox. He may be figuring that the best way to get to Kim is through a combination of credible threat and flattery. Again, like Trump himself who seems to be threatenable and desperate for flattery. If I'm right about this, Trump may be focussing on the big picture--more than anything else he wants to avoid a major war and make a deal. So he's willing to make himself seem weak or vulnerable while at the same time flexing military muscle."

"Not uninteresting. But that assumes he's a normal person. Trump, that is. And Kim for that matter. They may both be crazy."

"Could be," Jack said.

"What you're suggesting is that maybe Trump can put aside his own colossal ego for the sake of finding a way out of this seemingly hopeless situation."

"Now, you're talking," Jack said.

"This is very, very speculative and doesn't fit my image of Trump as being out of control. But I'm willing to suspend my disbelief for awhile to see if you're right."

"The Andrew Jackson business, however," Jack said, "Is crazy. And not like a fox.

May 9, 2016--Paul Ryan's Waiting Game

The race for the Republican nomination for president in 2020, yes 2020, has already broken out and Paul Ryan is the front runner.

About this one, unlike this past year when he "reluctantly" agreed to save the GOP from itself by agreeing to become Speaker of the House and later, appearing before as many American flags as one finds at a Donald Trump rally, he made speeches of the sort that only presidential candidates utter since he was . . . running for president. Again, blushingly hoping that the Republican nomination process would break down and once again his party would appeal to him to again save them.

Well, that didn't work out so well for him, did it.

Now we have Donald Trump as the presumptive nominee and what has Paul been up to? Running again in his faux-reluctant way for president in 2020.

Too soon? He is a marathon runner, albeit as we found out four years ago when he was Mitt Romney's running mate, he lies about his times.

Here's how the boyish Speaker is hoping it will unfold--

Stealthily, he does everything he can to make sure Hillary Clinton gets elected in November, then he hopes for her to have a failed presidency (as Speaker he can assist with that). And then, come the next presidential election cycle, announces with a sigh that he is running for the 2020 nomination, again not because he really wants to be president but because the country needs to be saved from four more years of Hillary.

Note all the "saved" allusions. Consciously using religious language he represents himself that way--doing God's work as a secular savior.

Do not be fooled by his self-denying, pious-sounding concerns about the current rupture (I almost wrote Rapture) in the Republican Party--the widening divide between the Paul Ryan-style conservatives and the more atavistic, nationalistic Trump wing that has achieved a version of a coup d'etat.

His heartfelt mien is less about the state of the party than the state of his ambition.

He had a chance to grab a brass ring in 2012 and was waiting around this year to be summoned after the nomination process crashed and burned and the Republicans were plunged into the chaos of an open convention with the nation turning its lonely eyes to him.

Failing this, we now have Plan C.

Ultimately kicking and screaming, Ryan tepidly endorses and thereby contributes to Trump's losing--a pretty good bet. With Trump an electoral disaster, still enough Republicans are reelected to the House and Ryan retains his speakership. He drags his feet on President Clinton's legislative agenda, and this undermines her effectiveness, and then in 2019, again without exposing his boundless striving, declares her a failed president and announces that he is again reluctantly, once more for the sake of the Party, stepping aside as Speaker and thereby becomes the presumptive GOP nominee for 2020.

Keep an eye on what should be a fascinating piece of political theater on Thursday when Trump meets in Washington (not at the Trump Tower) with Ryan and other senior Republican leaders. They will likely miscalculate how much Trump is willing to say and do to assure them that now that he is the all-but-certain  nominee he will begin to play by their conventional rulebook.

I suspect that Trump will use the occasion to trot out some of his self-promoted dealmaking skills. These include his likely not wanting to make a premature deal. Trump's supporters would likely be disillusioned if he did. At least at this point.

His best political posture is still to play the outsider game. It got him this far and I suspect Trump feels it will continue to be his best strategy for November. Thus, we should be aware of the likelihood that Trump is as eager to run against the Republican establishment as the Democrats. Perhaps, more so.

In the meantime, I suggest everyone read The Art of the Deal where Trump talks about the importance of being willing to walk out of negotiations. And Ayn Rand's Fountainhead for insight into the radical ways in which  Paul Ryan sees the world.

January 12, 2016--The Art of the Deal

I didn't catch her name. On Morning Joe last week a Republican pollster, not well predisposed to Donald TRUMP, said she had spent the weekend reading Donald TRUMP's Art of the Deal.

"It was all there," she said, "Back in 1987, when it was published, he laid it all out."

"What out?" one of Joe Scarborough's other guests asked.

"How he operates. How he does his thing. To use one of his favorite words, how he wins."

"I'm not sure if I ever read it," Joe confessed.

"Well, you should," she said. "In fact, everyone in the media covering the election should. This may sound harsh, but any major media person who hasn't read it should be fired. I mean, taken off the campaign trail."

This seemed harsh, but when I related it to Rona, she said, "She was right. If you're a serious journalist, or pretending to be, you should do your homework. If not, you should be fired."

"I guess that pertains to me too," I said, not the least bit modestly. "But in my case I would have to fire myself."

"Rather than do that why don't you get the book and read it?"

Well, I did, and sure enough it's all there. What TRUMP's been up to and why he thus far has been successful beyond anyone's expectations. Except his own, of course.

To prevent nausea, I suggest reading only chapter 2, "Trump Cards: The Elements of the Deal." The rest, about his growing up and details of some of his biggest deals, do not add much insight.

And of course, in The Art he is talking primarily about real estate deals, but it's obvious that some of his maxims, insights, and urgings are applicable to other situations--such as running for president!

Since I know most of you are unlikely to read even that, here are some of the highlights that pertain to what he has been doing as candidate TRUMP since I suspect that he is playing things as if he wants to strike a deal with Americans--for them to make a deal with him to be their president.

The chapter is subdivided into 10 or so parts--

Think Big--This one goes without saying. In this case thinking big means thinking about winning the presidency.

Protect the Downside and the Upside Will Take Care of Itself--Here he reveals that he believes in the power of negative thinking. He represents himself as the opposite of a gambler, very conservative in practice, always being prepared with options and fallback positions if he can't get exactly what he wants.

Early last week, for example, when asked about the extravagance of some of his claims, he revealed with self-insight--"I can tone it down." And note that recently he has. He's even released a few position papers and promised that if he's elected he'd change his hairdo since he would not have time to tend to it since he'd be "working his ass off as president."

Maximize Your Options--This is related to the previous point. Never get painted into a corner by not having alternatives to propose. The bottom line it to get what you want directly or indirectly.

Know Your Market--Now we're getting closer to the heart of the TRUMP approach. You need to "know what the public wants and deliver it." Few would argue that he hasn't figured out what much of the voting public wants.

Use Your Leverage--Know you strengths and vulnerabilities. Use your strengths to overcome your vulnerabilities. Most important, "The worst thing you can possibly do in a deal is seem desperate to make it . . . . Leverage is having something the other guy wants."

Enhance Your Location--The ultimate cliché about real estate is that it's all about location, location, location. For TRUMP this is only partly true. Locations can be enhanced by the right kind of marketing and branding. TRUMP's name on something makes up for a less than ideal location.

A cousin of mine couldn't by a place in TRUMP Tower--the best location of all of The Donald's buildings at Fifth Avenue and 57th Street--because all the apartments were sold. But he was willing to pay the same top-dollar per-squre-foot price at TRUMP Plaza, "all the way over" on Third Avenue. A TRUMP name and amenities trumped sacrosanct physical location.

Get the Word Out--The TRUMP heart of the matter. See if any of this sounds familiar:

You need to generate interest, and you need to create excitement. . . . One thing I've learned about the press is that they're always hungry for a good story, and the more sensational the better. It's in the nature of the job, and I understand that. The point is that if you are a little different, or a little outrageous, or if you do things that are bold or controversial, the press is going to write about you. I've always done things a little differently, I don't mind controversy. . . . 

The funny thing is that even a critical story, which may be hurtful personally, can be very valuable to your business. . . .

Pay close attention to this--

The final key to the way I promote is bravado. I play to people's fantasies. People may not always think big themselves, but they can still get very excited by those who do. That's why a little hyperbole never hurts. People want to believe that something is the biggest and the greatest and the most spectacular. 

I call it truthful hyperbole. It's an innocent form of exaggeration--and a very effective form of [self] promotion.

There you have it. Direct from the source. Put out there nearly 30 years ago.