January 3, 2019--Weakman Trump

Many on the left, even before he took office, concerned about his authoritarian inclinations, were fearful that Trump would intentionally morph into a Mussolini-style strongman. That he would become an American fascist.

That can still happen as panic sets in, as various investigations press in on him, as it becomes more and more apparent that he is totally corrupt, having committed serious felonies in both his personal and presidential life, a fully authoritarian Trump may emerge. 

But with impeachment and possible criminal indictments looming, instead of Trump the strongman we may see Weakman Trump. 

His signature initiatives, one domestic and two international are collapsing and to preserve them and himself he will be required to do more than compromise--he will need to capitulate.

As I write this he is in the early stages in the process of caving in to the new Democratic leaders of Congress. In the White House Situation Room of all places, they are witnessing Trump in the throughs of trying to wiggle out of the political responsibility for the unpopular government shutdown. 

The real reason for the shutdown has to do with Trump's highest-priority domestic campaign promise--not that the government needs to be slimmed down, but that he will build a wall and Mexico will pay for it. He is the one who linked the two with the shutdown as a bargaining chip that he gambled the Dems would trade away to fund their supposed favorite thing--more big government.

Two-thirds of Americans are unhappy with the shutdown and blame it on Trump while the same two thirds oppose Trump's "nonnegotiable" line drawn in the Rio Grande--his most conspicuous, base-pandering campaign promise--that he will build a "beautiful" wall and Mexico will pay for it.

If nothing else, Trump knows how to read polls and he sees that both the shutdown and the wall are losing political gambits. With the shellacking he took during the recent midterm elections and the current unpopularity of him and his policies, with 2020 looming, not to say a possible Mueller report, he is seeking a way to back down and save a little face. Usually it is the Democrats who cave. This time (thus far) they are hanging tough and enjoying the spectacle of Trump twisting in the proverbial wind.

Then there are the international messes Weakman Trump is desperate to get behind him. In at least two cases, both leading campaign promises--to withdraw from the Middle East, especially Syria, and to get North Korea to denuclearize--his impulsive decision to bring home all American troops from Syria is not working out. Some key Republicans have taken the lead in criticizing him and he has already agreed to allow the withdrawal timetable to swell from 30 days to four months. In fact expect those four months to stretch out further. 

And it is clear that the only deal Trump's real strongman friend, North Korea's Kim Jong-un, will agree to is not to destroy any of their nuclear weapons or delivery systems until the U.S. withdraws American soldiers from South Korea, ends joint military operations with our longtime allies, eliminates sanctions, and removes our nuclear weapons from the region.

A weakened Trump, if he wants to continue to take credit for making a deal with North Korea (and, politically, to feed his base he has to) he will need to do some fancy tap-dancing to cover up the caving that will be required to get out of this dilemma. 

My concern--often weak men are more dangerous than strong ones.

November 27, 2018--South of the Border

Silly me, all along I thought Trump would wag the dog when Robert Mueller's findings were about to be published by bombing nuclear installations in North Korea or Iran. To distract from the main Mueller takeaway--the indictments of half the Trump family--he would start a war either place and watch his approval ratings soar. 

Don't they always when a president shows muscle? Like Lyndon Johnson and Richard Nixon did in the early days in Vietnam, Ronald Reagan did in Grenada, as George H. W. Bush did in Panama and Iraq, as Bill Clinton did in Bosnia, and George W. Bush did in Afghanistan and again in Iraq. Approval numbers in all instances went off the charts. 

But then (is there a lesson here?) in almost all cases the numbers came crashing back to earth. In fact so low for LBJ and Nixon that for this and other reasons they both wound up having to resign the presidency. (Lesson here as well?)

But now I think Trump's first (note that--first) wag situation will not be with Iran or North Korea but along the 1,900 mile border with Mexico.

With our border patrol people already using teargas and rubber bullets à la Israel to contain asylum seekers and Trump authorizing the use of "lethal force" if they or the military he has deployed to the area have rocks thrown at them, the visuals are already so intoxicating to the cable-news-addicted president that how can he be expected to resist a wider, more telegenic little war? And of course not have to worry that these fleeing Guatemalans might lob nukes on San Francisco or Trump Tower in New York City.

While all this excitement is going on who will care about the beans spilt by former campaign manager Paul Manafort or former fixer Michael Cohen? Who will notice that Trump pardons Don Junior, son-in-law Jared, and Ivanka? Who will pay attention to the legal spatting about the constitutionality of subpoenaing or indicting a sitting president?

After running this riff by Rona, she said, "A little snarky, don't you think?"

"Maybe a little," I said, "But this is serious."

"And for something this serious you think snark is the right tone? Thousands in the caravans are suffering and back in their home countries there are millions more being preyed upon by violent gangs, collapsed economies, and governmental corruption."

"So what are we supposed to do? Open our borders and let anyone in who wants to work and live here? I agree the situation is serious but what are we realistically supposed to think much less do? I get the demagoguery and the rhetoric, how Trump is playing with these people's lives for his own political purposes. To feed his base of terrified haters. If you were president what would you do?"

"It is very complicated," Rona said, "Look at what happened to poor Hillary the other day. When she said in an interview in The Guardian that 'Europe needs to get a handle on migration because that is what lit the flame' of nationalism in England, Western Europe, and with Trump the U.S. too. She got beat up, most claimed, for not getting off the stage and letting the next generation of Democrats move into the spotlight. But I think she was castigated because she told the truth. The truth that American liberals don't want to deal with because they fear it will alienate some members of their own base--those who want more open borders and a permissive approach to immigration."

"What we need," I said, "Is a whole new immigration policy. It needs to be humanitarian and efficient but also has to place limits on who we can admit to the country and need for our economy. That's the hard part."

"We can and should talk more about this because I can't figure out what I would like to see. But in the meantime I agree with you about Trump. You can safely bet your last two dollars that he's hoping for some significant violence along the border to justify a more and more aggressive response by our security forces. Sort of like how Lyndon Johnson jumped on a supposed incident in the Gulf of Tonkin off North Vietnam to justify a major ramping up of our commitment to defeat the Vietcong. My guess is that Trump is looking for his Gulf of Tonkin opportunity to take the focus off Mueller."

"In the meantime," I said, "Back to the snark."

October 11, 2018--October Surprises

In election cosmology an October Surprise is a news event deliberately created, timed, or occurring spontaneously that influences the outcome of an election, particularly for the presidency.

With the upcoming midterm elections, since Donald Trump has kidnapped them and made the hundreds of congressional contests all about him--in effect, a referendum on his presidency--by nationalizing these individual races, it would not be unexpected for him to come up with a whopper of an October Surprise. One that would underscore what he claims to be his achievements (tax cuts, renegotiating NAFTA, withdrawing from the Iran deal, a strong job market) a surprise designed to motivate his base to vote for candidates he supports. Essentially, any and all Republicans running for office.

Recent examples of October Surprises include leaking the news in 2000, when George W. Bush was locked in a tight contest with Al Gore, that some years earlier Bush had been cited in Maine for driving while under the influence.

Four years later, to undermine Bush's reelection chances, Osama bin Laden released a videotape in which he took credit for the 9/11 terrorist attack in the hope that this would remind voters of Bush's failures.

The 2008 stock market crash weakened John McCain's chances in his race against Barack Obama. Republicans in general were blamed and the onset of the Great Recession boosted the chances of all Democrats, especially Obama's. So much so that the Democrats took control of both houses of Congress.

And then most recently, in 2016, it is generally agreed that FBI director James Comey ruined Hillary Clinton's candidacy when in late October he summarily released thousands of emails of hers that, even though they contained nothing disqualifying, reminded the voting public that she was not trustworthy.

What then might Trump have in mind for us during the next few weeks? We know he shapes a daily political drama to dominate the news cycle and thus I suspect there will be at least two surprises of magnitude that will suck up all the media oxygen. I predict there will, unprecedented, be at least two such surprises since for Trump more is never enough.

One will involve foreign affairs, the other will focus on domestic theatrics.

Secretary of State Mike Pompeo recently spent a week in Asia. In China but more interesting in North Korea. After his Korea visit he said little progress was made in denuclearization talks. I wonder.

My guess is that he brought with him for Kim Jong-un one of those love letters Trump mentioned the other day. Letters so steamy that even the exhibitionist president said they were too amorous to disclose.

Trump's to Kim likely included a plea--

"Help me out please! I'm about to get shellacked in the midterm elections and need your help. Maybe you could blow up a big missile or two on live TV. I could then say you're on track to getting rid of all your nukes. Of course that's really unnecessary. I just need a good show one of these mornings. Maybe you could time it so it could be shown on Fox & Friends. My favorite."

Then domestically, a couple of days ago, without a formal announcement, Trump launched the Month of the Woman. It began with UN ambassador Nikki Haley announcing on live TV in the Oval Office that she is resigning. 

There they were, Trump and Haley together shamelessly flirting with each other. 

The Month of the Woman will culminate with Trump appointing Dina Powell, a woman, to replace Haley. Unless Trump can convince daughter Ivanka to allow him to appoint her. One advantage for her--it would get her out of Washington (which she hates) and back to New York City.

Recognizing that the so-called "gender gap" is hovering at about 30 points, some are saying it's not a gap but a chasm, realizing that, Trump will do all sorts of things between now and November 6th to focus on how good his presidency has been for women and then will hope that at least a few will show up at the polls in November and vote for him.

If women come out in a wave of votes for Democrats, he'll need more than a couple of surprises to keep him from being impeached in January. There aren't enough angry old white guys to keep him politically safe. We'll see, then, if he can bamboozle enough women to vote for Republicans as he did in 2016.

I'm saying, more than anything else, Kim has to come through for him.

August 17, 2018--A Pocket Full of Distractions

I finally figured out why Trump doesn't button his suit jackets. Until now I thought it was a vain attempt to hide his William Howard Taft-like girth. 

Now I realize it was for another, to him more urgent reason--to give him quick access to the list of distractions he has secreted away in his inner jacket pocket so it is always ready at hand for him to refer to in order to change the subject when he does something wrong or makes a fool of himself. To distract us and the media. 

To change the subject, for example, from Omarosa and the N-word tapes to cancelling former C.I.A. director John Brennan's security clearance. 

Trump has this list nearby in the same way he has the nuclear codes at the ready. Those are schlepped along wherever he goes by a military aide in the so-called "football." 

The list of distractions, to him much more important, Trump carries himself. Close to the heart.

I was able to sneak a look at the list the other day, and for the sake of checks and balances and the historical record I here for the first time reveal what's on it.

He has the distractions categorized--so, for example, there are distractions in waiting about immigrants. They include--

Point out serious felonies perpetrated by illegal immigrants to remind your supporters they are murders and rapists.

Announce all children separated from their parents at the border have been reunited.

Claim Chuck Schumer and Nancy Pelosi support amnesty.  

Mention Nancy Pelosi along with "no-collusion" at every opportunity or whenever her name comes to mind.

Under the distraction category Women--

Mention Maxine Waters every time you appear in public. Remind people that she supports Nancy Pelosi and this is evidence of her low IQ.

Talk about how smart you are: where you went to college, your IQ, how much money you are worth. About that, triple what your personal accountant itemized on your most recent 1040 form. (Don't worry about the tax implications)

Invite Laura Ingraham, Janine Piro, and Megyn Kelly to the White House for, like Obama, lunch on the lawn. (Don't mention Obama)

On August 26th, National Dog Day, announce you've changed your mind about Hillary Clinton. (Your supporters will stop chanting "Lock her up" every time you mention her name. Instead, they will bark)

Announce that you and Melania will be adopting a shelter dog. (You're the first president since FDR not to have one)

African-American distractions include--

Talk about black people who are some of your best friends: Don King, Mike Tyson, Dennis Rodman. Invite them to lunch on the White House lawn. (Consider inviting Obama, who is a black African)

Invite Miss Universe Pageant winner Paulina Vega to lunch on the White House lawn. (She may be from Colombia but she is still black)

Call Nancy Pelosi a low-IQ dog to demonstrate you are not a racist.

There are many media distractions. Here's just one that touches a few bases--

Announce you're going on Don Lemon's show to talk about your black friends. (He's black)

It's on CNN. (This shows the intrepid side of you--your willingness to venture into enemy territory. It's not the same as visiting Afghanistan, but we all know that's the last place in the world you'll be visiting.)

And with Lemon you get a three-fer: His blackness, CNNness, and his gayness. (He's out of the closet)

Then there are North Korea distractions--

Reprieve "Little Rocket Man." (To flatter him consider "Big Rocket Man")

Shoot down a North Korean jet off the coast of South Korea.

Bomb Syria

Bomb Tehran.

Bomb Venezuela.

Bomb Pyongyang.

Nuke Pyongyang.

Bomb San Fransisco (Nancy Pelosi's district).

Finally, there are the firings distractions--

Fire chief of staff Kelly.

Fire Jeff Sessions. (The attorney general)

Fire Stephen Miller. (Your senior advisor)

Fire Kellyanne Conway. (Counselor to the president--you)

Fire Sarah Huckabee Sanders. (Your press secretary)

Fire Mike Pence. (Forget that you can't do that. Fire him anyway)

Fire Sean Spicer. (Ignore that you already did that)

Fire Michael Flynn (Ditto. Fire him again)

Fire Steve Bannon. (Ditto)

Fire Paul Manafort. (Ditto)

Fire Anthony Scaramucci. (Ditto)

Fire Omarosa. (Ditto)

Fire Jared. (Your son-in-law)

Fire Ivanka. (Your daughter)

Fire Melania. (Your wife)

Fire Barron. (The youngest of you 3 or 4 sons)

Fire Nancy Pelosi. (Soon again to be Speaker of the House)

June 13, 2018--Trumped In Singapore

He couldn't wait to get out of town. 

After a total of about three of hours of meetings--first a one-on-one 45 minutes with Kim Jong-un, then a brief lunch and another meeting that included advisors (John Bolton among them so Kim and the North Koreans could see the man who most wants to nuke them), then, like a couple of kids who stole their parents' car, after showing Kim the interior of the president-mobile (called the Beast by the Secret Service), and a brief press conference where all the questions were about North Korea and not Stormy Daniels, Trump hustled up the steps to Air Force One, told the pilot to put the pedal to the metal, and raced away before he could trade more away to the North Koreans than he already had. For example, casually agreeing without a quid pro quo to end annual "war games" the U.S. has for decades engaged in with the South Koreans.

What had occurred and who won and who lost was revealed in the maximum leaders' two faces--Kim's was all private smiles for what he had accomplished (getting the president of the United States, the president of the most powerful nation in the entire history of the world, to fly 18,000 miles for a few hours of handshakes and, especially, thousands of photographs) while not needing to agree to anything much less actually having to give up anything such as his intercontinental nuclear missiles that are capable of reaching Chicago.

Trump's face, on the other hand suggested that he was either choking on what they served at lunch or knew how snookered he had been by that 34 year-old nut-job who, it turns out, is no nut-job but a brilliant manipulator who should not be laughed off but taken seriously, very seriously.

Kim is the one who channeled The Art of the Deal while the coauthor forget its dos and don'ts.

Why this might be is worth thinking about.

Both men needed this meeting. Many assumed it was Kim who leads a country that is beyond falling apart. He doesn't even have a plane that could get him safely from Pyongyang to Singapore. Forget providing electricity or food for his people.

Trump was holding all the cards, it was thought, including the crazy card--his advisors whispering to Kim that Trump is so deranged and uncontrollable that unless he was genuflected to might actually bomb North Korea back to the Stone Age. Though most of the country already is in the Stone Age.

The truth is that Trump is the desperate one. 

Kim might have a few more generals and family members who want to topple him but he can take care of that pretty easily--poison them or let his dogs literally tear them apart.

Trump, though, has Robert Mueller. Does more need to be said?

As further evidence that Trump is off his feed was his pathetic attempt the day before the summit to trash Justin Trudeau, who, as a result, is not just off the charts in popularity in Canada but I have friends who want to lure him to the U.S. so he can serve as our president.

But the evidence I want to share about Trump's mental health, in case you missed it, was the semi-coherent spritz he offered about North Korean real estate.

He actually said--

They have great beaches. You see that whenever they're exploding the cannons into the ocean [Huh?]. I said look at that view. Wouldn't that make a great condo beyond that?
You could have the best hotels in the world right there. Think of it from a real estate perspective [!]. You have South Korea, you have China, and they own the land in the middle. How bad is that? Right? It's great.

In spite of myself I'm beginning to feel sorry for him.

June 1, 2018--Jack: Base-Ball

"I don't want to talk about politics," Jack said, waving us off before we could even say hello after running into him in on a perfect morning in downtown Damariscotta.

"I unfriended half my Facebook friends because of politics," he said. I suspected that included me since I haven't seen any postings from him for at least two months. 

"I'm just trying to get the renovation work done on my house and want to lead a calm life. The politics talk has been making me crazy."

I said, "I understand, but you know it's your own fault." He looked at me skeptically and tried to walk on. I trailed after him. "How can you literally run away from the discussions you initiated for months? Years?"

"Like I said," he said with his back half turned away, "I'm through with talking. I want to concentrate on living."

"I'm not blaming Trump's election of you," I said, "But you bear some responsibility. You talked him up for months before he ran and after he beat the odds and won the nomination, all you wanted to talk about was Trump, Trump, Trump. You remember--'your boy?'"

"I need to get back to work," he said but stopped racing ahead and turned toward me, slowing down so I could keep up with him. I'm a little wobbly on me feet, he's full of energy.

"So are you having a bit of a change of heart?" I suspected this might be why he didn't want to talk and had unfriended so many people. Avoidance. Feeling, perhaps, that he was in fact partly responsible for Trump's election but was feeling some disenchantment.

"I don't agree with everything he says or does. Nobody does. But I do agree with some of his issues."

"Some? That surprises me. I would have thought from our conversations that you'd be a happy camper. But give me some examples of things with which you agree and especially those with which you disagree."

"I believe in the tariffs. All around the world they're taking advantage of us. Even our so-called friends  Europe, Canada, and of course Mexico. They're killing us. Especially the Chinese. So he's right now moving, in fact today, to impose them. On steel and aluminum. He promised to do that during the campaign. And by the way, one thing you'll have to agree about--he is good at keeping his campaign promises."

"Even the crazy ones like tariffs. Most Republicans don't agree with them," Rona said. She had caught up with us. "They believe in the free market. That it will take care of everything, including inequality, if the government stops trying to manage the economy. Conservative politicians and economists say this. For every job saved by these kinds of tariffs three down the supply chain are lost."

"We'll see how it works out," Jack said, avoiding eye contact. But he made no effort to move on.

"You really want a trade war with China just when we need them to help us with North Korea?"

"The Chinese are smart. That can do two things at at the same time. Like walk and chew gum. As long as they see it to be in their best interest."

"Speaking of the Chinese," Rona pressed on, "How are you feeling about all those million-dollar trademarks the Chinese recently awarded First Daughter Ivanka? Just days before Trump went against all advise to prop up that Chinese telecommunications firm, ZTE, that everyone, including Republicans, say is a threat to our national security. This feels like play for pay to me."

"Not my favorite thing," Jack mumbled.

"Anything else not your favorite thing?" I poked him, "You said that there are things Trump is doing that you disagree with."

"I'm not sure he should be meeting with the North Koreans. I mean, do you think they're going to give up their nuclear bombs just because Trump acts nice to them and agrees to meet? I doubt it. I think Kim and his henchmen are very smart and are looking to buy time while finishing the work to build missiles that can reach America. They did the same thing with Clinton, Bush, and Obama. Our presidents thought they were making progress with the current Kim's father all the while they cheated and perfected their nukes and missiles."

"So why do you think Trump seems so eager to take a deal?"

"You mean other than winning the Peace Prize?" I nodded. "It's all about his base. People like me," Jack fessed up, "To appeal to them, us, by moving down the checklist of his campaign promises. We talked about that already. He's doing everything he can to get his people to turn out in November and vote. To try to keep the majority in Congress. Especially the House because if he can turn that tide or blue wave around he won't be impeached."

"I agree with that," I said. "You might think about it as base-ball."

Jack moaned, "What a terrible pun. But I do agree. It's all about them. And me. At the moment I've had it about up to here. I'm focused on getting my house painted."

"A lot of people on both sides are concentrating on their houses. On their lives. They, we, are also fed up with everything political. We need a break. Distractions," Rona said, "But those of us who want to see things change in Washington had better not be passive and withdraw from the battle. Tending to our gardens. Our future is at stake."

"I would agree with that," Jack said, "But about the specifics we still disagree. Though I'm not happy with everything. That I'll admit. I'm not in the same place I was 18 months ago. Maybe one day we'll meet in the middle."

"As long as it's my side of the middle," Rona said.

Jack reached out to hug her and then ran off.

Damariscotta 

May 29, 2018--Kim & Trump Together At Last

Don't be taken in by all the on-again off-again business about whether Donald Trump and Kim Jong-un will or won't meet on or about June 12th.

They'll meet. 

About that you can bet the house. And they will make a deal. Or a version of a deal, including possibly a faux deal. They'll be OK with that since anything resembling one will work. Will work for each of their purposes.

Never before have there been two political adversaries who so desperately need a deal. And so we will have one.

Kim's country is falling apart. Not that for decades, since his grandfather's rule, has there been much remaining to fall apart. Pretty much everything has been collapsing since the Second World War. Though one would not even be able to notice how fallen apart things are, especially after dark, since with the exception of the capital, Pyongyang, there is no power and thus there are no electric lights.

That should be the worst of the situation. Even more dire, most North Koreans are grossly undernourished if not out and out starving with parasitical worms common in most North Koreans' digestive systems.

But there is a small North Korean elite who are loyal to Kim as long as they keep getting their goodies (electricity, TVs, things to buy, and overseas trips and bank accounts). If they sense that Kim is imperiled by unhappy elements within the country and thus might be in danger of being overthrown, the military might rise up and preemptively do the overthrowing. 

Kim has had dozens from the elite killed, including, especially brutally, family members. As a signal that he can play rough. But he could be more precariously in office than he appears to be from our vantage point halfway around the world.

So any deal would prop him up, particularly if some of our sanctions were lifted and things for ordinary North Koreans improved. After Kim and Trump meet, if we see lights burning at night across the country, we'll know things are getting better.

Evidence that Trump will be satisfied by any version of a deal is his more than usual refusal to do any prep work prior to the summit. Briefing papers have been prepared but he has refused to be briefed. He plans to wing it, guided by his "instincts," which he has previously proclaimed are the best in all of history.

He knows making a deal, even one in which he makes more concessions than Kim, will boost his approval ratings by at least 10 points and this could help Republicans in November maintain control of the House. And if that were to happen, there will be no impeachment. 

So the stakes for Trump are very high.

A deal would also allow Trump yet more leverage when it comes time to savage the Mueller report and the inevitable additional indictments that will be forthcoming this fall or winter.

Then there is the Nobel Peace Prize. If they make a deal it would be difficult for the Swedish Academy not to award one to Trump (and Kim) and this would allow him to further obliterate all traces of Barak Obama and his presidency. More than anything else, perversely, Trump's controlling obsession.

Why, one might wonder, would Kim trade away his nuclear weapons based on promises from the world's most dishonest and untrustworthy leader?

Again, things for him are desperate and it's the only card he has to play.

That reminds me a joke. One of my father's. He had only two or three jokes in his repertoire, so pay attention.

It's about sardines.

Louie gets a call from his friend Dave. "Louie," Dave says, "Do I have deal for you. A warehouse full of canned sardines. And they're yours for a special price. Only $5,000." So Louie buys the sardines.

A week later, Louie calls his cousin Murray and says, "Murray do I have a deal for you. A warehouse full of canned sardines. Priced especially for your only $7,500." 

Sight unseen Murray buys the sardines and after a few days calls his friend, Steve, "Steve," he says, "Do I have a deal for you. A warehouse full of sardines. They're for sale at a special price just for you--$10,000."

This sounds like a good deal to Steve and after sending Murray a check he goes to the warehouse to check out his sardines. They are in huge shipping crates. He opens a crate and then one of the cans of sardines.

They smell awful. "I'll try another one," he thinks. "This one must be a defective tin." But the next one and the one after that are also spoiled. 

So, angry, he calls Murray to complain that all the sardines are rancid. 

Murray is not surprised and tries to calm Steve down.

"You don't understand," Murray says. "These are not eating sardines. They're buying and selling sardines."

So Kim will tell Trump that he has a deal for him. He's willing to denuclearize because his atomic weapons are not for bombing purposes but for trading purposes.

At least let's hope so.

On Sale at the White House Gift Shop

May 2, 2018--Let's Make A Deal

With Kim Jong-un saying last Sunday that he will give up his nuclear arsenal if Trump pledges not to invade North Korea, Kim and Trump could conclude a deal in less than half an hour. 

What else would need doing besides Trump figuring out the  theatrics of the summit meeting?

If Trump didn't require more than a day in Moscow in 2013 to run the Miss Universe Pageant, talk about a Moscow Trump Tower, and do whatever that night in Moscow's Motel 6, the situation with North Korea, thanks to Kim, is shaping up to be even more of a walk in the park.  

Of course Trump will make that pledge if that's all it takes. No need for dozens of diplomats (which we, by the way, no longer have) to work on the devils in the details. All Kim has to do is agree to having a couple of UN disarmament people resident in North Korean to make sure Kim complies. And all Trump has to do is, well, not very much. 

No need for Kim to schlep all the way to Singapore or Mongolia to meet. He doesn't have a dependable airplane to get him there anyway and the train he rides around in is so ladened with bombproofing that it can rumble along at only 22 miles per hour. He'd have to leave Pyongyang tomorrow to get to Singapore by mid May. 

To make things simple and convenient they could meet on Air Force One. Trump could fly it into Pyongyang Sunan International Airport and Kim could use an Uber to get to the meeting.

I'm making light of this because I think I may be hallucinating. I temporarily increased my meds last week and I don't trust myself these days.

But the more serious side of me senses the makings of a deal. To sign off on one there needs to be self-interest on all sides. 

And there is.

Let's start with South Korea. If we stumble into a war on the peninsular, which was feeling more and more likely just before the Olympics--remember "little rocket man" and who had the bigger nuclear button--military experts estimated that in the first half hour up to half a million Koreans would be killed. Of course, Pyongyang would be bombed back to the Stone Age and Seoul to the Iron Age, there would be no winners, very much including the global economy. So hyper-capitalistic South Korea doesn't want to go there. No more Samsung? No more Kia? No more Hyundai? 

Also, nationalist South Korean president Moon would very much like to shrug off the heavy American presence and hand, freeing his country of client statehood.

China also would like to see the U.S. less dominant in Asia. It is their goal to have us withdraw our 23,500 troops from Korea and for us to be less dominate in the regional economy. And our diminished role advances China's aspirations and worldview. 

Of course they would have to figure our a way to deal with a new Tiger Economy, millions of refugees wanting into China, and the possible unification of Korea. Korea would instantly become the new Germany and thus an economic power to reckoned with. China would have to figure out how to accommodate and/or co-opt that.

What a deal would mean to North Korea is evident. People there would have electricity and food, the roads would be fixed and Kim would have an Air Force One of his own. He also could use the money that participating in winning the Nobel Prize would provide. Perhaps for Kim, more than anything else, he would morph from pariah status to player on the world stage.

Trump too in important circles is a pariah but if he were to sign off on such a deal he would have a chance to get off that schneid. It might even help Republicans win more seats in the House of Representatives than currently projected and make it less likely that Trump would be impeached. It might also be an incentive for him to declare mission actually accomplished and decide to turn the keys over to Mike Pence.

He also could use the Nobel cash.

Kim at Pyongyang Airport

April 23, 2018--Contortions

It has been painful to witness progressives, Democrats twisting themselves into contortions as they attempt to come to grips with what is happening with the North Koreans.

Their problem is less with Kim Jong-un and the North Koreans than with how to think about and react to Donald Trump's involvement.

Remember how during the 2016 primaries he said it would be his "honor" to meet face-to-face with Kim? He was roundly criticized and mocked by both his Republican and Democratic opponents as being naive and inexperienced in the world of global diplomacy. He was chastised for asserting that traditional forms of diplomacy (which included many months of pre-summit negotiations between lower-level staffs) were the necessary prerequisites to meetings between heads of states. Particularly hostile ones.

Think Kissinger meeting privately with Zhou Enlai before Nixon would consider getting together with Zhou much less Mao.

Failing to recall how neophyte Barack Obama was roundly criticized and mocked by his political opponents (Hillary Clinton leading the pack) during the 2008 campaign when he declared he would be willing to meet face-to-face with the leaders of Iran and North Korea in the search for peace, progressives, opposing Trump now in such ahistorical, knee-jerk fashion are being, well, intentionally forgetful, hypocritical, or both.  

So now we not only have a heads-of-state meeting on the books for late May/early June, but we appear to have Kim making all sorts of preemptive concessions about his nuclear weapons program.

First he announced he was suspending all testing of missiles and nuclear warheads. Then, again without demanding anything in return, he announced over the weekend that he will be shutting down his nuclear weapons research and fabrication facilities. He wants, he says, to turn his focus to the collapsed North Korean economy.

This latter promise is discombobulating progressives. On Saturday and Sunday, for example, on CNN and especially MSNBC, former senior Obama national security advisors and staff have been all over the airwaves struggling with how to think about and respond to these overtures.

First, and most appropriately, they expressed skepticism, warning that the North Koreans for decades have made promises of this sort that they haven't kept. Then they dismissed the evidence that the extra-severe sanctions imposed on the North Koreans, mainly by the U.S. and China, have led to the further hollowing out of the North Korean economy, such as it is, and this is forcing Kim to the table. 

They are ignoring this evidence because, as with Kim's pledge to scale back his weapons program, not to have criticized what seems to be unfolding would give tacit if not overt credit to Trump, as unlikely and crazy and as confounding as what may be happening might turn out to be. 

Liberals so despise Trump that they cannot bear to give some credit, much less offer any praise for his leading the effort to bring this about.

Most outrageously, if Trump pulls this off he would be a leading candidate to receive a Nobel Peace Prize. If the unthinkable were to occur, he as well as Obama would have one. 

Worse--all of us in our heart-of-hearts know Obama didn't really deserve his whereas if we manage to make a verifiable deal with the North Koreans, Trump will have earned his.

Sometimes the world is too confounding to deal with. This may turn out to be one of those occasions.

Kissinger and Zhou Enlai

March 23, 2018--Trump & Friends

Donald Trump's appointment of John Bolton to serve as his National Security Advisor is the most dangerous in a long series of high-level hirings.

Bolton does have the semblance of an appropriate resumé--he served for a time as Ambassador to the UN during the George W. Bush presidency (though because of his extreme hawkish views he was never confirmed by the Senate: his was a seemingly endless "recess" appointment)--his positions on Iran and North Korea are such that it will be difficult to sleep through the night.

He favors withdrawing from the nuclear weapons deal with Iran and recently attempted to make the case for a first-strike military attack on North Korea.

The National Security Advisor does not have to be confirmed by the Senate so we will have to figure out a way to live with his having the unraveling Trump's ear. This will not be easy.

To quote Rona again, she says that what's going on is that Trump is setting up a version of Fox & Friends in the White House. With CNBC's Larry Kudlow as his new chief economic advisor, with Fox News' Joe diGenova as his new chief lawyer, and with Fox's John Bolton as his new National Security Advisor, right there in the Oval Office he has his very own Trump & Friends.

My question is who from Fox will be his next Secretary of Defense (Sean Hannity?) and weather "girl"?

March 7, 2018--Korea

Finally, maybe, perhaps, could it be at last that there is some good news from Korea?

Change often comes about in unexpected ways.

South Korean leaders worked hard to convince North Korea to join an all-Korean contingent of athletes at the recent Olympics. 

Even maxim-leader Kim Jong-un's sister attended, sitting in the VIP box fewer than 10 feet from Vice President Pence, who did not even have the manners to smile in her direction. (His wife travels with him wherever he goes to keep him from paying attention to beautiful young women.)

Things felt so frosty that it seemed as if Trump couldn't wait for Pence to leave so he could get on with the business of nuking Pyongyang.

For the new president of South Korea, Moon Jae-in, having North Koreans participating in figure skating and ice hockey was less about sports or medal counts than high-stakes geopolitical politics.   

Moon ran for office as a new-style leader who would not wake up every morning with his marching orders delivered to him by our ambassador (assuming we ever again have one) but as one who would find his own way on the Korean peninsular, especially testing to see if there is any chance to make a deal for some sort of rapprochement before we, "fire and fury," incinerate both Koreas.

That opportunity may be coming into focus. Earlier this week high-level South Koreans travelled north where they had substantive discussions with their North Korean counterparts, including in the North Korean delegation, Kim's sister--the "Korean Ivanka." 

After the two days of meetings Kim announced that he would order the suspension of missile and nuclear testing during any talks Moon might be able to broker between the North and the United States. Further, Kim hinted, he is willing to discuss the denuclearization of North Korea, America's and the world's ultimate objective.

Trump's response? Moderate. Reasonable. Rational. No tweets about "Little Rocket Man" and "whack job." Just indications of appropriately skeptical openness to Kim's initiative.

Could this be, might this be, perhaps this represents . . .

I am reluctant to compete these sentences and jinx the situation.

But here's the framework for a deal. Admittedly, a stretch--

We agree to discussions (remember during the campaign how Trump said he would be willing to meet with Kim, that to do so would be "his honor"). South Korea, China and even Russia eagerly await the results and, back-channel, encourage Kim to be negotiable. 

After a couple of months, there is the outline of the deal--

In exchange for ratcheting-back their nuclear program, on route to reducing it, the North agrees not to develop nuclear weapons that are small and dependable enough to be delivered by their ICBM missiles that already have the capacity to reach the United States.

In return, we agree to draw down our military presence in South Korea, withdrawing the bulk of our current contingent of 23,500 troops. The UN agrees to deploy inspectors on both sides of the border to guarantee that North Korea and the U.S. fulfill their commitments.

Longer term, the country is unified, following the examples of Vietnam where there is now one Vietnam, and Germany where there is now one Germany. To help in the process, the economic behemoth, South Korea, devotes trillions to the modernization of North Korea, which in turn over time also becomes an economic powerhouse.

Trump one way or the other is forced to give up carrying out any tail-wag-the-dog actions in a desperate attempt to deflect attention from the now rapidly encroaching Mueller investigation. He has to settle for stumbling into helping to promote world peace.

Kim Jong-un and Donald Trump share the Nobel Peace Prize. Trump finally, with this at least, reaches parity with his predecessor. 

OK, too much, scratch that. But they are widely adulated. Enough so that Trump decides not to run for reelection, reminding us endlessly how he fulfilled all his promises. How the mission has been accomplished.

In fact, if anything like this plays out, unlikely partners as Kim and Trump are, they would deserve a lot of credit.

January 4, 2018--Let the Games Begin!

Kim Jong-un and Trump Donald-un are at it again. We've moved from "Little Rocket Man" to back-and-forths about whose nuclear button is bigger than whose. (Fortunately, on both sides, there are no such buttons.)

Do you think these world leaders have a size problem? We know that "Little Marco" Rubio felt that way about candidate Trump's hands and other body parts. 

This ends the entertainment portion of this posting. 

The rest is perhaps even hopeful.

Remember back in the early 1970s, after 20 years of estrangement between the United States and "Red" China, both sides were looking for a face-saving way to begin to engage each other.

The U.S. ping pong team was in Japan competing in the world table tennis tournament. Since they were in the neighborhood, the People's Republic of China invited them to come to Beijing for a series of exhibition matches. 

Never mind that our team was trounced. What turned out to be important was not the ping pong but the fact that this represented the beginning of communication between both sides which culminated in 1972 with fierce Cold Warrior Richard Nixon visiting China, most remarkably sitting down to talk with maximum leader, Mao Zedong. The rest is the history we are living with today.

There may be, may be something similar happening right now on the Korean peninsular.

With the Winter Olympics less than a month from opening in South Korea, in his annual New Years address to the world, North Korea's president Kim Jong-un hinted that he would like to talk with his South Korea counterpart, Moon Jae-in, about the possibility of the North sending athletes to the games. I suppose in the tradition that enemies put aside their weapons to compete in the Olympics.

Quickly, President Moon took up Kim's offer. They or their representatives have already made plans to meet in the demilitarized zone as early next week and they have already reconnected the hot line between the two Koreas. We know that when they meet they will be talking about more than ski jumping.

Obervers in Asia and the West are noting that this is an attractive strategy for each side--for Kim it shows some flexibility in regard to talking to those who oppose him and his nuclear program. It also, as many are putting it, "drives a wedge" between two erstwhile allies--South Korea and the United States. Presuming that if Moon agrees to meet it will be in defiance of Trump, president of South Korea's longest time ally, the United States.

On President Moon's side of the table, it shows his independence from the United States. That his is not a puppet regime. We have been a huge presence there from the years of the Korean War until today. Nearly a remarkable 70 years. Currently there are 37,500 U.S. military personnel in South Korea, and for decades we have been the the major patrons of most South Korean political leaders.

But Moon, who recently come to power as a "liberal" has sought to put some distance between us and his country. So this wedge may be just what he is seeking--some measure of independence from our influence.

In a frenzy of threatening tweets about Pakistan, the Palestinians, Iran, and North Korea, President Trump has indicated he has no problem with the two Koreas talking with each other.

Perhaps he too is hoping that this small opening, not unlike the ping pong diplomacy of the 1970s, will lead to a way for us to back off while saving face. 

This has not been Trump's MO--backing off or looking for ways to save face--but one never knows with someone as unpredictable and as embattled as he. Maybe he will switch to becoming as obsessed with Pakistan or Venezuela as he is with North Korea. In his world, that could be a version of a good thing. And it does fit an America First agenda of sorts, though Pakistan has at least 100 nukes and I'm not sure provoking them as he recently has is such a good idea.

It is fragile things of this sort that we hope for and cling to.

November 28, 2017--The Highways of North Korea

Recently there were two dramatic attempts to escape from North Korea. One was caught on videotape as the defector raced south along a highway that led to South Korea and freedom.

On the tape we see him chased by North Korea border guards who fired 45 shots at him. Five struck home. Amazingly he was not killed, but rather was rescued by five South Korean soldiers who risked their lives to pull him to safety.

He is apparently resting comfortably in a hospital in the South, watching in fascination a steady stream of CSI reruns.

Doctors treating him reported that like the other escapee, his digestive system was full of parasitical worms. Some as long at 11 or 12 inches! They said this is evidence of how malnourished North Koreans are. They may have nukes and missiles but the regime does not have the resources or inclination to feed or treat its citizens.

The tape went viral. I asked Rona if she had seen it. She hadn't so we found it on YouTube. There it was in real time and slow-motion.

"Amazing," Rona said. "What a brutal situation." 

She leaned closer to the computer screen to get a better look at the escape. "Did you see that highway?"

"Highway?"

"The road he raced down."

"I didn't notice it."

"Take another look." We played the tape again.

"I think I see what you mean."

"How perfect the road surface is."

"I see that now," I said.

"Not a crack in it, no potholes, no bumps, no deterioration."

"Even the left-turn graphic on the surface looks as if it was just painted."

"When you think about the roads in Maine and New York City," Rona said, "it makes me angry that ours and our bridges are collapsing while those in about the poorest country in the world are in perfect shape."

"So when it comes to infrastructure who lives in a Third World country?"

Rona not answering was the answer.

November 8, 2017--Jack: The Great Destraction

"So how are things in Moscow?"

"What?" I was busy and shouldn't have picked up Jack's call. I knew it would lead to aggravation.

"You know. Where you are."

"You mean New . . . ? Oh, I get it. New York City. Moscow. Communism."

Jack was already chuckling. "You and your comrades in Moscow by the Hudson must be feeling pretty good about my boy."

"Pretty good about Trump? That'll be the day. Maybe because he hasn't yet got us involved in a nuclear war? To be fair to him I should give him another a day or two to get one started."

"I mean how he's doing in Japan and South Korea. On his trip to Asia."

"In what way is he doing anything I might feel good about?" Jack again had me hooked. I should have hung up. We got back to New York just a few days ago after being powerless as the result of a tropical storm and we were having enough trouble adjusting to all the craziness in the city after six months in small-town Maine. I didn't need him making matters worse.

"I'm referring to what he just said about our talking with the North Koreans. How maybe there are signs that diplomacy could be working. He said that Tuesday at a press conference in South Korea. That didn't make me happy, but for you and your pansy friends that should have been music to your ears."

"I've heard this before. But before yesterday the last thing he said about trying to make a deal with them was to publicly tell his Secretary of State not to waste his breath talking to 'the little rocket man.'"

"That's the Trump I love," Jack said. "Republican and Democratic presidents wasted 25 years trying to get them to give up their nuclear weapons and what did that get us? During that time they developed atomic and hydrogen bombs and missiles that can almost reach America. I'm no fan of war. I was in the army. But we may be left with no option except nuking them. So when Trump talks about negotiations that buys them more time to figure out how to build bombs small enough to fit on their biggest missiles. Someone this morning on your favorite show, Morning Joe, said they're only a year away from being able to do that."

"Do we really need to talk about this depressing subject? Out the window here in Manhattan all I'm hearing are ambulance and fire engine sirens after months of listening to the sound of water in the bay and the birds in the trees and bushes. And now from you, there's more upsetting noise. So, give me a break and change the subject."

"OK. How about your girl."

"My girl?"

"Hillary."

"Not my favorite person. I had to hold my nose to vote for her. But you guys continue to be obsessed with her. She seems to be your favorite person. Don't you think it's time to fall out of love and move on?"

"Are you kidding me. She's the gift that keeps on giving. While you guys are locked in on Trump and the Russians, we have Hillary making life fun for us. A few years ago we had Benghazi. Now we have that uranium business and the fact that Hillary is behind the famous BuzzFeed dossier that supposedly lists Trump's alleged involvement with the Russians. And just the other day, when these were no longer on the front page, Donna Brazile came out with her book about how Hillary rigged the nomination, sabotaged poor Bernie, and bankrupted the Democrat Party. What a trifecta."

"But Hillary lost. She's irrelevant. Trump was elected and is the president. So he's the one that counts. If we're talking scandals and maybe criminal activity, the focus appropriately should be on him. Not her. You're trying to change the subject. Shifting the focus from him where it belongs to her who no one cares about anymore."

"Au contraire," Jack said, "To Trump people--and there are still a whole lot of us--she's still front and center. In fact, so much so that there should be a special prosecutor to look into her collusions. Just tracking down how Hillary sold 20 percent of our uranium to Russia justifies having someone other than Mueller to investigate it."

"Most of the stuff about her is made up. It's part of all the conspiratorial thinking you and your friends are so good at. But be that as it may, answer one more question for me before I have to go."

"I'm listening."

"Let's assume that Hillary did all sorts of bad things when it comes to the Uranium One deal."

"As they say, if it's true, 'Lock her up.'"

"OK. She's convicted of something and even goes to jail. This is preposterous but to shut you up for a minute let's assume that. So here then is the point--this is no way lets Trump and his people off the hook about all the corrupt and likely illegal things he and they did. Focusing attention on Hillary doesn't mean taking the spotlight off him. Were capable of doing two things at the same time--probe her dealings and keep the Mueller investigation of Trump going."

Without waiting to hear from Jack, I said, "But let's keep things in perspective--while she may have stolen the nomination from Bernie, with the help of the Russians he may have stolen the election from Hillary. They are not morally equivalent."

Jack didn't respond. 

"Your silence is making my point for me. You're primarily interested in using Clinton as a distraction. To turn attention away from Trump. At the popular radio talkshow level it's working. At least for the moment. You may be good at changing the subject--Trump is actually excellent at that--but Mueller's not going away and day by day, drip by drip, more of Trump's people are being shown to be implicated and at some point, probably two, three months from now, standing back, in full focus, we'll see what Trump himself and his cronies have been up to. It's not going to be a pretty picture and no matter what Hillary did or didn't do, no matter where she is, even if in jail, your boy is going down."

Still nothing back from Jack.

"You all will trot out more things to try to distract us--maybe even a war with North Korea, wag the dog style--but still his colluding and criminal behavior--likely of a financial sort--is not going away. What will ultimately happen I have no idea. But the truth will out. Only his rock-bottom 30 percent of dead-enders will believe all this is the result of conspiracies between the media and the socialists and the Clintons. But even you will know better. You're too smart to be taken in by that craziness, that paranoia"

Not a word from Jack.

"Then be sure to call me. That conversation I look forward to having."

Benghazi Hearing

October 20, 2017--Sarah Is Pissed With Me

"You've finally gone too far." It was Sarah calling. I know her for more than 35 years.

"I'm listening."

"That blog you wrote about ISIS and Donald Trump."

"From a few days ago. It was the piece about the end of ISIS as an organized fighting force."

"That part of it I was OK with."

"So what has you so agitated?"

"That you assigned credit to that turd Trump for having defeated them on the battlefield. Something your New York Times was skeptical about in two articles published a few days after your blog."

"I beg to differ with your interpretation of the differences between their pieces and mine. Not that my stuff is of the quality of the New York Times. Not even close, but some times I feel I get to a story before they do. So at those times I'm ahead of the Times." 

I thought that was pretty snappy.

"You can make light of this all you want but this finally made me crazy."

"How's that?"

"For at least two years in your pieces you've been an apologist for him. By your taking him seriously you've helped normalize him. To give him the credibility of a regular politician and not the skunk he is. An unqualified and dangerous skunk." I could hear her breathing hard.

"Let's try to calm this down and unpack it. First, about ISIS. I said Trump accepted the strategy Obama set in motion and doubled down on it. In one of the Times pieces they compared how many attacks and how many bombs were dropped on ISIS during Obama's time and Trump's. They concluded Trump authorized more and unleashed our troops more than Obama did and that contributed to ISIS's defeat. That was a part of what I wrote and was also a part of what the Times reported."

"He's a lunatic, a monster, a danger to the world who has his hands on the nuclear codes and you take him seriously? I've had it up to here with you," she shouted.

"Of course I take him seriously. He's the president for ill or good. I know the ill part and try to find a few things that are good. Like maybe listening to his generals when it came to ISIS. I wrote about that too."

"That's the part that torqued me off the most," Sarah spat, "How you could find anything good to say about him."

"Now we're getting to a bigger problem."

"Now, I'm listening," she said.

"I know you'll be offended by this but I'll still take the risk of raising it with you." I waited for permission to put our relationship on the line. It didn't come, but her silence and the fact that she didn't hang up encouraged me to continue.

"Here's one of my big problems with Democrats and liberals when it comes to opposing Trump. It's almost as if they--and honestly, though I love you, I mean you too and, I have to add, me--it's almost as if we so much hate the idea that he might do something or stumble onto something good--like fighting ISIS effectively--that you'd prefer him to do everything wrong. Some call this 'confirmation bias,' where you look for things to support your already-established point of view. In Trump's case, this means that you despise him so much that the only things you pay attention to are the horrendous things he does. And of course, in my view too, almost everything he does qualifies."

Sarah was groaning. "This may sound crazy, but when it comes to a really dangerous situation like North Korea it would confirm your worst fears if he got us into a major war with them. Maybe even using atomic weapons. That would prove once and for all, including the historical assessment of his presidency, that he was, is the worst president we've ever had. If this is at all true, think about it--that his starting a nuclear war would confirm for all time that he is truly crazy and he ultimately led to many millions being killed during his years as president. You'd prefer that than think or hope he can somehow solve our problems with the North Koreans. I know this is unlikely, but it's possible and shouldn't we therefore work to make the possibility more probable? Rather than hope he'll fail with this too?"

"What you're saying is crazy," Sarah said, "He's the one who's a danger to life on earth and still you keep looking around to find good things to say about him? Again, like what you wrote about him and ISIS. How maybe since he listened to reason about how to deal with them he'll do it again when it comes to a bigger crisis like with North Korea."

"We're never going to agree about this," I said. "But one final thing. I've also written pretty extensively about how most of the liberals and Democrats I know did very little to actively defeat Trump and elect Hillary. At most, most of the people I know sent checks to support her campaign or Bernie's. I won't ask what you did though I know you didn't go to any rallies or work the phones. And you live in a purple state. So, and we're speaking frankly with each other, as you accused me, you helped by not being active in the campaign to elect the person you most hate."

"What I did is my own business. You're changing the subject. Turning it on me."

"True, I am changing it. And since I am I have one more question for you--what are you doing about Alabama?"

"Alabama?"

"In the senate race there? To replace Jeff Sessions? There's a lunatic on the Republican side. Judge Roy Moore who tried to get the 10 Commandments displayed at the statehouse. And then there's the Democrat, Doug Jones. He has a chance. In fact, a Fox poll this week has the contest as a toss up. So, if you're so riled up, what are you doing to help elect Jones?" I waited. "Your silence tells me more than I hoped to know. Bottom line--we all have to check ourselves out. Few of us are not implicated. We all contributed to this mess."

Sarah said, "Let's take a time out. I mean in our relationship. I hear you but still disagree. I mean about the role you've played in this. I'm still furious with you. You write this stuff and send it out. You have a lot of followers. Therefore, you have an additional responsibility to be careful with what you say."

"And, love, so do you. Including what you do."

Judge Roy Moore--10 Commandments