May 29, 2018--Kim & Trump Together At Last

Don't be taken in by all the on-again off-again business about whether Donald Trump and Kim Jong-un will or won't meet on or about June 12th.

They'll meet. 

About that you can bet the house. And they will make a deal. Or a version of a deal, including possibly a faux deal. They'll be OK with that since anything resembling one will work. Will work for each of their purposes.

Never before have there been two political adversaries who so desperately need a deal. And so we will have one.

Kim's country is falling apart. Not that for decades, since his grandfather's rule, has there been much remaining to fall apart. Pretty much everything has been collapsing since the Second World War. Though one would not even be able to notice how fallen apart things are, especially after dark, since with the exception of the capital, Pyongyang, there is no power and thus there are no electric lights.

That should be the worst of the situation. Even more dire, most North Koreans are grossly undernourished if not out and out starving with parasitical worms common in most North Koreans' digestive systems.

But there is a small North Korean elite who are loyal to Kim as long as they keep getting their goodies (electricity, TVs, things to buy, and overseas trips and bank accounts). If they sense that Kim is imperiled by unhappy elements within the country and thus might be in danger of being overthrown, the military might rise up and preemptively do the overthrowing. 

Kim has had dozens from the elite killed, including, especially brutally, family members. As a signal that he can play rough. But he could be more precariously in office than he appears to be from our vantage point halfway around the world.

So any deal would prop him up, particularly if some of our sanctions were lifted and things for ordinary North Koreans improved. After Kim and Trump meet, if we see lights burning at night across the country, we'll know things are getting better.

Evidence that Trump will be satisfied by any version of a deal is his more than usual refusal to do any prep work prior to the summit. Briefing papers have been prepared but he has refused to be briefed. He plans to wing it, guided by his "instincts," which he has previously proclaimed are the best in all of history.

He knows making a deal, even one in which he makes more concessions than Kim, will boost his approval ratings by at least 10 points and this could help Republicans in November maintain control of the House. And if that were to happen, there will be no impeachment. 

So the stakes for Trump are very high.

A deal would also allow Trump yet more leverage when it comes time to savage the Mueller report and the inevitable additional indictments that will be forthcoming this fall or winter.

Then there is the Nobel Peace Prize. If they make a deal it would be difficult for the Swedish Academy not to award one to Trump (and Kim) and this would allow him to further obliterate all traces of Barak Obama and his presidency. More than anything else, perversely, Trump's controlling obsession.

Why, one might wonder, would Kim trade away his nuclear weapons based on promises from the world's most dishonest and untrustworthy leader?

Again, things for him are desperate and it's the only card he has to play.

That reminds me a joke. One of my father's. He had only two or three jokes in his repertoire, so pay attention.

It's about sardines.

Louie gets a call from his friend Dave. "Louie," Dave says, "Do I have deal for you. A warehouse full of canned sardines. And they're yours for a special price. Only $5,000." So Louie buys the sardines.

A week later, Louie calls his cousin Murray and says, "Murray do I have a deal for you. A warehouse full of canned sardines. Priced especially for your only $7,500." 

Sight unseen Murray buys the sardines and after a few days calls his friend, Steve, "Steve," he says, "Do I have a deal for you. A warehouse full of sardines. They're for sale at a special price just for you--$10,000."

This sounds like a good deal to Steve and after sending Murray a check he goes to the warehouse to check out his sardines. They are in huge shipping crates. He opens a crate and then one of the cans of sardines.

They smell awful. "I'll try another one," he thinks. "This one must be a defective tin." But the next one and the one after that are also spoiled. 

So, angry, he calls Murray to complain that all the sardines are rancid. 

Murray is not surprised and tries to calm Steve down.

"You don't understand," Murray says. "These are not eating sardines. They're buying and selling sardines."

So Kim will tell Trump that he has a deal for him. He's willing to denuclearize because his atomic weapons are not for bombing purposes but for trading purposes.

At least let's hope so.

On Sale at the White House Gift Shop

November 8, 2017--Jack: The Great Destraction

"So how are things in Moscow?"

"What?" I was busy and shouldn't have picked up Jack's call. I knew it would lead to aggravation.

"You know. Where you are."

"You mean New . . . ? Oh, I get it. New York City. Moscow. Communism."

Jack was already chuckling. "You and your comrades in Moscow by the Hudson must be feeling pretty good about my boy."

"Pretty good about Trump? That'll be the day. Maybe because he hasn't yet got us involved in a nuclear war? To be fair to him I should give him another a day or two to get one started."

"I mean how he's doing in Japan and South Korea. On his trip to Asia."

"In what way is he doing anything I might feel good about?" Jack again had me hooked. I should have hung up. We got back to New York just a few days ago after being powerless as the result of a tropical storm and we were having enough trouble adjusting to all the craziness in the city after six months in small-town Maine. I didn't need him making matters worse.

"I'm referring to what he just said about our talking with the North Koreans. How maybe there are signs that diplomacy could be working. He said that Tuesday at a press conference in South Korea. That didn't make me happy, but for you and your pansy friends that should have been music to your ears."

"I've heard this before. But before yesterday the last thing he said about trying to make a deal with them was to publicly tell his Secretary of State not to waste his breath talking to 'the little rocket man.'"

"That's the Trump I love," Jack said. "Republican and Democratic presidents wasted 25 years trying to get them to give up their nuclear weapons and what did that get us? During that time they developed atomic and hydrogen bombs and missiles that can almost reach America. I'm no fan of war. I was in the army. But we may be left with no option except nuking them. So when Trump talks about negotiations that buys them more time to figure out how to build bombs small enough to fit on their biggest missiles. Someone this morning on your favorite show, Morning Joe, said they're only a year away from being able to do that."

"Do we really need to talk about this depressing subject? Out the window here in Manhattan all I'm hearing are ambulance and fire engine sirens after months of listening to the sound of water in the bay and the birds in the trees and bushes. And now from you, there's more upsetting noise. So, give me a break and change the subject."

"OK. How about your girl."

"My girl?"

"Hillary."

"Not my favorite person. I had to hold my nose to vote for her. But you guys continue to be obsessed with her. She seems to be your favorite person. Don't you think it's time to fall out of love and move on?"

"Are you kidding me. She's the gift that keeps on giving. While you guys are locked in on Trump and the Russians, we have Hillary making life fun for us. A few years ago we had Benghazi. Now we have that uranium business and the fact that Hillary is behind the famous BuzzFeed dossier that supposedly lists Trump's alleged involvement with the Russians. And just the other day, when these were no longer on the front page, Donna Brazile came out with her book about how Hillary rigged the nomination, sabotaged poor Bernie, and bankrupted the Democrat Party. What a trifecta."

"But Hillary lost. She's irrelevant. Trump was elected and is the president. So he's the one that counts. If we're talking scandals and maybe criminal activity, the focus appropriately should be on him. Not her. You're trying to change the subject. Shifting the focus from him where it belongs to her who no one cares about anymore."

"Au contraire," Jack said, "To Trump people--and there are still a whole lot of us--she's still front and center. In fact, so much so that there should be a special prosecutor to look into her collusions. Just tracking down how Hillary sold 20 percent of our uranium to Russia justifies having someone other than Mueller to investigate it."

"Most of the stuff about her is made up. It's part of all the conspiratorial thinking you and your friends are so good at. But be that as it may, answer one more question for me before I have to go."

"I'm listening."

"Let's assume that Hillary did all sorts of bad things when it comes to the Uranium One deal."

"As they say, if it's true, 'Lock her up.'"

"OK. She's convicted of something and even goes to jail. This is preposterous but to shut you up for a minute let's assume that. So here then is the point--this is no way lets Trump and his people off the hook about all the corrupt and likely illegal things he and they did. Focusing attention on Hillary doesn't mean taking the spotlight off him. Were capable of doing two things at the same time--probe her dealings and keep the Mueller investigation of Trump going."

Without waiting to hear from Jack, I said, "But let's keep things in perspective--while she may have stolen the nomination from Bernie, with the help of the Russians he may have stolen the election from Hillary. They are not morally equivalent."

Jack didn't respond. 

"Your silence is making my point for me. You're primarily interested in using Clinton as a distraction. To turn attention away from Trump. At the popular radio talkshow level it's working. At least for the moment. You may be good at changing the subject--Trump is actually excellent at that--but Mueller's not going away and day by day, drip by drip, more of Trump's people are being shown to be implicated and at some point, probably two, three months from now, standing back, in full focus, we'll see what Trump himself and his cronies have been up to. It's not going to be a pretty picture and no matter what Hillary did or didn't do, no matter where she is, even if in jail, your boy is going down."

Still nothing back from Jack.

"You all will trot out more things to try to distract us--maybe even a war with North Korea, wag the dog style--but still his colluding and criminal behavior--likely of a financial sort--is not going away. What will ultimately happen I have no idea. But the truth will out. Only his rock-bottom 30 percent of dead-enders will believe all this is the result of conspiracies between the media and the socialists and the Clintons. But even you will know better. You're too smart to be taken in by that craziness, that paranoia"

Not a word from Jack.

"Then be sure to call me. That conversation I look forward to having."

Benghazi Hearing

December 10, 2014--One Jong-un

Isn't it frustrating that we know so little about what's going on in North Korea.

With all our human and technological intelligence assets we don't really know who's in charge, who is slated for execution, what's happening with supreme leader Kim Jong-un's health (minimally he seems to be limping), how his sister has seemingly somehow wheedled her way into his inner circle--assuming he even has one--and what's with those Kim family bouffant hairdos?

OK, so his father and grandfather, as well as Jong-un himself were barely five-feet tall. Not that impressive when it comes to leaders-for-life. The hair adds another inch or two of stature. On the other hand, Napoleon and Hitler weren't much taller and they both sported comb-overs. No wonder Jong-un likes 6' 7" Dennis Rodman so much.

More important, we're not sure if North Korea has two or ten atomic bombs or how close they are to being able to miniaturize them enough to stick one on top of missile capable of reaching our West Coast.

But one thing I do know is that I'm happy not to be Kim's uncle. We do know what that gets you--the firing squad.

Now there's another thing publicly known--there will be no more Jong-uns.

According to the New York Times, back in January 2011, soon after Mr Kim took office (if that's the proper way to describe his ascendency) there was a government document that declared that there can be no more Jong-uns in North Korea. Since it's a common name, anyone with it was required to change it to something else and now no new babies can be named Jong-un.

This should have come as no surprise because the North Koreans did the same thing when his father and grandfather took over.

How charming. But also disturbing. Disturbing because it took nearly four years for the South Koreans, who should have some idea about what's going on in the north, to find out. If we can't keep track of what names are or are not allowed in North Korea how will we ever get a line on their military capacity and intentions.

I suppose one reason that there is no electricity anywhere in the country except the capital, Pyongyang, is to keep both the North Koreans and the rest of us in the dark.