April 28, 2020--The Andrew Cuomo Show

New York governor Andrew Cuomo is having a moment.

New Yorkers I know who for years have not paid any attention whatsoever to the politics of the Empire State are setting kitchen timers to remind them to tune in to his seven-day-a-week Andrew Cuomo Show about the status of coronavirus and what he has encouraged and ordered us to do to reduce the chances that we will catch it and how to seek help if we do.

Unlike someone we know, he is not recommending Lysol enemas. 

That's some of the point--Cuomo is looking good in part because he is not Donald Trump. He is so outperforming the odious president that comparisons can be painful to watch.

Many have become so cynical that they are wondering if Cuomo is mainly interested in positioning himself to scoop up the Democratic presidential nomination this summer if 77-year-old Joe Biden falters. Or, they suspect, Cuomo may already be thinking about 2024 when he will be only 65. 

But even a glance at Cuomo's record reveals he is more than just the latest political heartthrob who gives good press conference. Though that in itself is welcome.

He record of accomplishment, especially when it comes to big and bold infrastructural projects, is more impressive than that of any recent governor as well as any president since Franklin Roosevelt. Yes, that FDR.

Let me list the top five or six--

In the news yesterday there was a report about the L-Line subway in NYC that runs from the hippest part of the new Brooklyn to Union Square Park in Manhattan. The L's tunnel under the East River was badly damaged by super storm Sandy. For seven years the city struggled to come up with the best way to restore it. The ultimate plan included suspending service for three years and was budgeted to cost upwards of a billion dollars.

Cuomo stepped in, claiming that was too long to wait and too much to spend. He offered an alternative plan that he claimed would take 12 months and cost less than a billion.

He was right. Though the governor was mocked by experts who insisted he was overreaching and didn't know what he was talking about, the L Train will be reopened this week, six months ahead of schedule and $100 million under budget.

And then, after languishing unfinished for many decades, the massive project to extend the Second Avenue Subway, Andrew Cuomo got it back on track (pun intended). Relentlessly pressed by him the work was completed, ahead of schedule and again below budget.

Also, there are two massive bridge projects that he pushed to completion--the replacement of the Tappan Zee Bridge across the Hudson River (now named for his father, former governor, Mario), and in Brooklyn, the replacement of the perpetually traffic-clogged Pulaski Bridge.

Another project that was stalled for decades is the conversion of the 42nd Street post office to a new Penn Station, the nation's busiest railroad terminal. Pressed by the governor, work is finally underway.

Even more remarkable, also talked about for decades, is the replacement of LaGuardia Airport, which then Vice President Joe Biden, not inappropriately, compared to a "third world airport."

To quote Barack Obama, at a time when many wonder if America is any longer capable of doing "big things" in eight years, Andrew Cuomo has demonstrated that with the right leadership we can.

So, if he's running for president, more power to him.  

Mario Cuomo Bridge

November 19, 2018--Ice Storm

For a moment late last week it did feel as if the world was ending. It didn't, but perhaps we got a preview.

In the West, mainly in California, it felt that the entire state was being consumed in flames, with hundreds, perhaps thousands incinerated. It felt literally hellish. 

Some of the millennialist persuasion, always alert to signs of the End, claimed that it was in fact the (upper case) End and that the Antichrist was in our midst (someone other than Hillary Clinton this time) and the Rapture was imminent.

And in the East, not nearly as deadly or terrifying, the entire region was shut down in tri-state gridlock that was the result of a paralyzing snow and ice storm. Though "only" 6.4 measurable inches fell in New York City, a city that both never sleeps and prides itself in shrugging off 20-inch blizzards, this time, as the storm struck at rush hour, we more than blinked.

Commutes that typically take up to two barely endurable hours, on Thursday evening stretched from five to 10 hours. Yes, 10. There was a 20 car collision on the westbound side of the George Washington Bridge that took more than 12 hours to untangle. After an hour or two of frustration, sitting stalled in cars, commuters realized they were hopelessly stranded and that they would soon run out of gasoline and as a result would not have heat, they abandoned their cars and did who knows what or went who knows where.

Even in solid-as-a-rock, New York City, even in our shady West Village, half the trees either lost main branches or collapsed entirely under the weight of the ice and snow. There were cars that were abandoned near midnight on our block between Broadway and University Place. Trapped between fallen trees. At least they were only blocks from various subways that thankfully continued to run. If the subways had shut down without notice, I can't begin to imagine what would have happened. Even in the secular Big Apple I suspect that there would have been more than a few conversions to Evangelicalism.

Even if neither coast provided hints of a biblical ending it did offer more than a glimpse of how our country, the world is collapsing under the weight of overpopulation (rarely mentioned as it urgently should be), overconsumption, climate change, and the related collapse of infrastructure. 

Driving from Maine to our city home we got a full taste of the latter. 

I generally hate the FDR Drive which runs north-south along the East River, but because of the aggressive flow of traffic that didn't allow me to shift lanes we wound up swept onto it, forced to go south on the FDR at 125th Street. (Confession--I did not as yet have my NYC driving chops and for the city was driving too passively.) This last few miles took almost an hour of tense stop-and-go driving. Not helped by the lack of lighting in the half dozen tunnels one has to negotiate, not aided by white lines to help keep everyone in lane, and with a road surface that felt it was built and not maintained for a hundred years. Only a modest exaggeration.

"Worse than a third world country, what a way to welcome visitors to the city," I muttered to Rona, with whom, as a result of the driving tension, I was already spatting.

She grumbled something at me and that was our last exchange in 40 minutes of mounting aggravation.

In fact, they have been working on the FDR for almost as long as I have been driving (about 50 years) and rather than things improving the road surface it is getting worse and about to collapse entirely.

Two weeks later (actually, a couple of days after the storm with fallen trees and limbs still not removed from our street), we needed to take the car to the VW mechanic in Brooklyn for its annual inspection and assorted repairs. 

We took the Manhattan Bridge between Manhattan and Brooklyn. As with the FDR, they have been working on the road surface for more than three decades and since traffic was slowed because of volume and potholes, we were able to catch closeup views of the road surface as we inched along. 

It is sad to report that in spite of all those years of effort in many places the potholes are so gouged out that one can see the East River flowing beneath the bridge.

Doing something about infrastructure is more than a subject for political oneupmanship. We will see that aspect of it played out as soon as the Democrats take control of the house. It is more about taking care of some of society's essential assets. What would happen to NYC, for example, to in fact the nation, if both the FDR and Manhattan Bridge collapsed? As I feel certain one day not too far from now they will. What will workers do if their commutes routinely require 4-5 hours each way? When every day is like last Thursday?

Extrapolate this across the country and, what with the incessant fires, perhaps the Preppers have it right and the End is approaching.

November 28, 2017--The Highways of North Korea

Recently there were two dramatic attempts to escape from North Korea. One was caught on videotape as the defector raced south along a highway that led to South Korea and freedom.

On the tape we see him chased by North Korea border guards who fired 45 shots at him. Five struck home. Amazingly he was not killed, but rather was rescued by five South Korean soldiers who risked their lives to pull him to safety.

He is apparently resting comfortably in a hospital in the South, watching in fascination a steady stream of CSI reruns.

Doctors treating him reported that like the other escapee, his digestive system was full of parasitical worms. Some as long at 11 or 12 inches! They said this is evidence of how malnourished North Koreans are. They may have nukes and missiles but the regime does not have the resources or inclination to feed or treat its citizens.

The tape went viral. I asked Rona if she had seen it. She hadn't so we found it on YouTube. There it was in real time and slow-motion.

"Amazing," Rona said. "What a brutal situation." 

She leaned closer to the computer screen to get a better look at the escape. "Did you see that highway?"

"Highway?"

"The road he raced down."

"I didn't notice it."

"Take another look." We played the tape again.

"I think I see what you mean."

"How perfect the road surface is."

"I see that now," I said.

"Not a crack in it, no potholes, no bumps, no deterioration."

"Even the left-turn graphic on the surface looks as if it was just painted."

"When you think about the roads in Maine and New York City," Rona said, "it makes me angry that ours and our bridges are collapsing while those in about the poorest country in the world are in perfect shape."

"So when it comes to infrastructure who lives in a Third World country?"

Rona not answering was the answer.

March 27, 2017--The System (Sort Of) At Work

In response to my Saturday blog, "The System At Work," where I argued that the defeat of the Republican's attempt to repeal and replace Obamacare was evidence of the system working and that this should be comforting to the fear many progressives have had that Donald Trump is a crypto-fascist, an American Benito Mussolini, a very good friend wrote--

System working? Sort of. 

They will find other ways to gut Obamacare instead of fixing it. The system is way broken. The American people come last. No one wants to find real solutions which would alienate each sides gerrymandered bases.  

Though I understand this view and acknowledge she may be right, I sent a note back to her in which I said--

For me the system working is more than "sort of." 

I've been arguing here for more than a year, as more and more progressives saw Trump to be our own Duce, that we need to give the system a chance to bring him to ground. So, of course, as a result of the repeal-and-replace fiasco, immodestly I think my predictive ability is being confirmed. 

For example, almost as many "moderate" Republicans as Freedom Caucus Republicans were set to vote "no" because they felt the health plan before them was too severe.  

Even more potent an argument for the system working is the diminishment of Trump's perceived power. His perceived power is at least half his appeal and I expect to see it erode further as more people feel released to abandon him. His approval numbers are already at all time lows. And have been falling. Then of course there is the Russian connection ticking. Wait 'til we hear more about the Trump part of that connection. 

This of course doesn't mean we will see an outburst of progressive legislation and behavior. For me it means very little will get done and all things considered that's a good thing. This may also very well mean that Trump will be a one-term president.  

Further, expect to see Ryan go after the Freedom crazies. Mainly to seek vengeance and also to protect his speakership. Rather than the Freedom Caucus being empowered by what happened they are weakened. Note that "only" 15 of the 29 of them were "no's." That means almost half defied their own leadership. 

I also think Trump will back way away from anything having to do with health care. It never was a priority for him. Too wonky a subject and too divisive  A virtual policy tar baby. Just ask Nixon, Hillary, and Obama. I expect to see him focus exclusively on tax cuts and infrastructure. The two things I think he actually cares about and about which he at least knows something. OK, a little. 

He'll need Dems for both and we'll see if he gets them. I suspect only for infrastructure and corporate tax cuts will the Dems play along. They don't want to prop Trump up or help him become successful. Then Ryan won't need the 14-29 Freedom votes. He can make them irrelevant by working with a handful of Democrats.

My friend also wrote that--

Steve Bannon still wants to try to destroy administrative state. Cabinet departments now have fairly low level loyalist appointees who spy and report back on the civil service professionals.

To that, I said--

Having eyes in the departments is not in any way new. Pretty much every modern president has had his plants in most departments. If I were president, I'd want some loyalists there too to keep an eye on who was working on my agenda and who was freelancing. So I don't worry too much about that.  

I worked a lot in a few federal departments in my day and knew a number of people who were there to report back to the Clinton, W, and Obama White Houses. This sort of thing is also common in corporations and NGOs. Like it or not, this is basic management stuff. A way of trying to maintain control of large, bureaucratic institutions. 

But of course I could be wrong about this and if pushed could make the case that all is perilous and that we are doomed. I'm not wired  that way and thus will continue to keep an eye on the system at work.  

Only 65 days into the Trump admin and I already see progress at whittling down the scary stuff. Including Bannon's agenda which after this debacle has little chance of being realized. Expect Trump to move closer to the advice of the practical people (Jared Kushner--when he and Ivanka return from skiing is Aspen) and less to the ideological Steves (Bannon and Miller). I think Trump's already had his fill of the latter.  

He now has a glimpse of what the far-right are really about. They are not his natural constituency--he ran mainly as a populist. Bannon helped guide him into the healthcare mess since the bill that was finally pulled represented "progress" on reducing the administrative state--the end of Obamacare and the beginning of the end of Medicaid.  

So, in sum, I'm OK with the direction in which I see this headed. I'm optimistic about the rest of the domestic agenda. That is won'r get through Congress. 

To me, if you really want to make yourself crazy think about N. Korea, Russia, far-right crazies in Western Europe, laptop bombs . . . sadly I could go on. 

But in spite of this I plan to have a good weekend. I hope that's true for you as well.

And I know she will also continue to challenge me and keep me in line. That's what good friends are for.

She qualifies.

July 16, 2015--TRUMP

Is Donald (all caps) TRUMP just a joke? In the front seat in the Republican clown car?

Pretty much all Democrats agree that he is someone to make fun of (even David Letterman came out of retirement to make fun of him) and most of the other Republican pretenders to the 2016 nomination hope he is just an egotistic entertainer who can't live without the spotlight and will soon move on.

He may be cartoon like, but in other important ways he is resoundingly not. If he stays in the race for the GOP nomination after the current blast of publicity fades (as it most likely will) and spends a few hundred million of his own money (not likely--he is a tightwad and exaggerates his wealth) not only will he help define the future Republican Party but also give the other front runners fits since he actually has a chance to become the nominee.

He has a chance because his brand of anger and racial hatred appeals to at least a third of the GOP primary-voter base. This is different than the general-election Republicans who are a bit more nuanced and tolerant. But it may be enough to get him very close to or all the way to the nomination since his people tend to come from the activist wing of the party.

People are frustrated and angry about their own prospects and what they rightly see to be the decline of America's standing in the world. This began during the inconclusive Korean War and was brought home to American's consciousness when we lost in Vietnam, the first war in our history in which we were defeated. And more recently we are perceived to be ineffectual in the Middle East and, as many feel, are losing to ISIS.

But TRUMP's appeal, though based on this feeling of national decline, is more the result of stagnant income for most Americans and the haunting belief that the American Dream is over for the middle class, whose children, for the first time in history, are not doing as well as their parents.

Rather than blaming structural causes for these frustrating circumstances (an unfair tax system, a weak regulatory environment, the decline of unions, and the resulting rising rate of inequality), TRUMP's people blame government (especially Obama and liberal Democrats), social welfare programs that they feel encourage and underwrite dependency on the government, and above all else, for these angry folks, the millions of illegal immigrants already in the country and the alleged continuing flow of Latin Americans--Mexicans--across our porous boarders.

And then how lucky can The Donald get--escaped Mexican drug lord, El Chapo's son two days ago threatened his life, tweeting--

"Keep fucking around, and I'll make you eat all of your goddamn words."

This gave TRUMP the opportunity to act the selfless tough guy--

He tweeted, "I'm fighting for much more than myself. I'm fighting for the future of our country which is being overrun by criminals. You can't be intimidated. It's too important."

In addition, most Americans are frustrated that we as a people, our governments, cannot accomplish big things.

The country that built the interstate highway system in the 1950s and 60s can't fix our rusting bridges and crumbling roads. Many may ask, Who do you think is more likely to fix our roads--Scott Walker or Donald TRUMP? Who more likely to rebuild our bridges--Jeb Bush or Donald TRUMP? And what about Hillary Clinton? Do you think she could do a better job than TRUMP in making sure our weapon systems work?

So TRUMP may be a joke, but a potent one at that. And, ultimately, perhaps not a joke at all.

September 8, 2014--Two Cheers for Obamacare

I've been wondering why we've been hearing relatively little recently from Republicans about Obamacare. It had been thought that in the run up to the November midterm elections the GOP would be all over it, savaging it as an assault on both our freedom and the federal budget. It was to be their political trump card. The route to majority control of both houses.

Could it be that there is now relative silence because Obamacare is actually . . . working.

Many millions have signed up, and with the exception of some anecdotal horror stories the vast majority with health care coverage for the first time are happy with it; and, perhaps most surprising, in spite of all the scary stories about how the Affordable Care Act would bust the budget, it has in fact not only been cost effective but has already been contributing to deep cuts in the federal deficit.

Just as Obama said it would.

So then two cheers for Obamacare. It is too soon to offer three because, though the nonpartisan Congressional Budget Office's projections show significant downward trends in overall Medicare costs (the result in part of aspects of the ACA law) and thus dramatic deficit reductions over the decade, we still do not know how many more will sign up, how much subsidy they will require, and the nature of the care these new enrollees will require.

The CBO, adjusting for inflation, recently reported that the average amount spent annually per Medicare recipient declined from $12,000 each in 2011 to $11,200 this year and will be reduced further to $11,000 per Medicare enrollee by 2017. Technically, this is called "negative excess cost growth."

All told, the CBO is projecting that, as a result, over the next ten years the federal deficit will be reduced by $715 billion. Nearly three-quarters of a trillion dollars.

To be fair, this good news is not fully the result of the ACA. This downward trend is also a consequence of "young" Baby Boomers becoming eligible for Medicare for the first time and the apparent, not entirely understood, reduction in costly tests, treatments, and drug use. All good things as our health care system has grown bloated with over-testing and the over-selling of unneeded treatments and medications.

This $714 billion in savings dwarfs all deficit reduction plans being discussed, including Paul Ryan's draconian budget.

Wouldn't it be good if we could stop playing demagogic games with the budget and health care and get on to the real problems we face--how to create more jobs, improve the treatment of veterans, fix our crumbling infrastructure, improve public education, and tackle the inequality crisis.

Why am I not optimistic?