September 18, 2015--TRUMP Is Cooked

The Donald's long free ride is almost over.

Reflecting on Wednesday's debate, most observers agree that Carly Fiorina "raised her profile," largely by the forceful and classy way she took on TRUMP. Especially calling him out about the way he speaks about women, very much including Fiorina where most of his smears have been about her appearance and, more significantly, her failed time as CEO of Hewlett-Packard.

When she took him on, from attendees she received the only sustained applause of the night.

His repost, with a shrug, a pathetic, "She's really got a beautiful face."

To have any chance at all of recapturing the presidency, the Republican candidate will have to connect with women. Fiorina, as TRUMP also an "outsider," may turn out to be that ideal candidate.

I suspect TRUMP's numbers will remain high but stalled while Fiorina's will rise considerable, propelling her into third place, with Ben Carson, who did not do himself all that much good on Wednesday, remaining for the moment in second place.

The danger for The Donald is that unless, shark like, he keeps moving forward, he will reveal how vulnerable his support is. It depends entirely on promoting the image that he is all about winning--for himself and for the American people. He promises to make everyone rich. Not just with a chicken in every pot and a car in every garage. But rich.

If he begins to look like a loser, or not that special, the air will begin to come out of his balloon. You can't these days (thankfully) run down women the way he has without it eventually catching up with you.

That began to happen at the Reagan Library debate Wednesday evening.

Regarding Carly Fiorina--in spite of what she contends, she was a failed CEO at HP. All the growth she proudly points to as evidence that she was successful, claiming at the same time that she was pushed out because of internal board politics, though some of the latter is true, all the revenue growth she spotlights was because of the purchase of Compaq computers, her biggest strategic move, which quickly turned out to be a fiscal disaster for the company and a personal one for her.

She deserved to be fired and that will haunt her and make her as vulnerable as TRUMP as she rises in the polls and undergoes the resulting scrutiny.

Which in turn will bring us back to Jeb Bush. Languishing in the polls and thus far unable to speak coherently for more than two minutes, the other night, after two hours of hesitation and inarticulateness, perhaps after TRUMP was defanged by Fiorina, Jeb began to find his way. He emerged for the first time as the political pro he is supposed to be. If he can manage to keep that up he could be this cycle's comeback kid.

The problem--by the time he finally woke up viewers were already asleep or had tuned back to ESPN. No one any more was watching the debate and I suspect as a result it will take some time before GOP voters gives Jeb a second or third look.

Bottom line--they will and it will come down to Bush (who wants to put British Margaret Thatcher on our $10 bill), TRUMP (who would choose Rosa Parks), Carson (who would select his mother) and Fiorina, who had the best answer--make no changes, "Women are not a special interest group."

The rest can begin to pack up.

August 18, 2015--TRUMP: "He's Cooked"

"He's cooked," Joey said.

"What do you mean? I thought you believe he's going all the way."

"I thought so too until Sunday."

"Go on."

"Everything was cool at that stupid Iowa State Fair where all the candidates have to turn out and have their pictures taken hugging the butter pig."

"Butter pig?" This was new to me. But Joey is following the GOP campaign closely and I learn things from him every day. Especially about Donald TRUMP.

"Yeah, they have a pig there made out of butter. Sort of a butter sculpture. And all sorts of horrible food to eat that the candidates are forced to pretend to enjoy in order to appeal to Iowans or whoever.  Apple pie on-a-stick and Kernal Klusters and deep fried cherry pie. Can you believe it? Not that I'm a gourmet," Joey said, rubbing his considerable stomach.

"And your boy TRUMP? He hugged the pig?"

"I think he was intending too but the crowds around him were so big he couldn't get there. In the meantime, though, he arrived in a TRUMP helicopter, which was a big sensation. I mean, hasn't anyone who lives there ever seen a helicopter?'

"Probably not," I said, "And?"

"After TRUMP got off he had the pilot give kids rides. Without even asking their parents to sign consent forms. That tells me he's serious about running. Not just doing it out of ego or wanting all the attention he's getting. Don't get me wrong, he loves that."

"That's obvious."

"Did you listen to what he said to the press? How big money people buy candidates? How Jeb Bush is a 'puppet'--he called him that--because when the people who give him millions want something from him they just pull the strings. There's not much new with that. Every day he takes on another one of his opponents with zingers. Like Carly Fiorina a few days ago, pointing out that she was a failure when she was the CEO of Hewlett-Packard. Which, by the way, is true.

"But what was new was how he talked about himself. He casually confessed he does the same thing. He gives money to politicians and they answer his calls and do what he asked them to do. That that's the way the system works. He's giving voters a perspective from inside the system of the rich and powerful. How it really works and how he knows since he's been a part of it."

"It's like he's being a 'traitor to his class,' as people accused Franklin Roosevelt of being."

"Exactly. That's TRUMP's appeal. He is ripping the veil back to reveal how things are rigged against average people. This is potent political stuff.

 "So then, why is he cooked?"

"Because on Sunday, after hitting a home run at the Iowa Fair, on his Internet page he issued a position paper on immigration. He actually called it that. A three-part plan that calls for building a fence along the border (getting Mexico to pay for it); a commitment to assuring that any immigration plan 'must improve jobs, wages, and security for all Americans'; and, in the words of the New York Times, the plan includes 'strengthening the enforcement arm of the Immigration and Customs Enforcement office to be paid for by eliminating tax credit payments to illegal immigrants.' Whatever that means."

"What's so wrong with that? He's trying to sound presidential."

"Does any of this sound like Donald TRUMP?"

"Not really, but doesn't he have to--"

"Doing this sort of thing turns him into an ordinary politician. All the others have dozens of position papers and three- or ten-part plans for everything from education to cutting taxes. The kinds of things consultants write after looking at the poll numbers and, which TRUMP says, the candidates don't believe and abandon right after getting elected. They come up with three-part programs to get elected, not to guide them if they do get elected."

"I think I'm getting your point."

"He has to be careful not to be drawn into their game. If he does, he loses. His game is to be his bigger-than-life self and expose their game. Not play it."

"I think I agree with your analysis, including . . ."

"Or he'll be cooked?"

I nodded.