July 21, 2020--A Mandate for Biden

More than 100 days before Election Day we were nonetheless talking about making sure we got back to the city in time to vote. 

I quipped, "The Boy Scout in me makes me want to be prepared."

Bill said"You live in New York City, no?"

"We do," Rona said. 

"That means you don't have to vote," he said.

"We don't have to vote?" After years of our talking about politics I was more than a little surprised to hear him say that. 

"Dems always win in New York. Even a ham sandwich would be elected if it was a Democratic one," Bill said, "So your vote doesn't count. Biden doesn't need it. He'll get the usual 80 percent of New York's votes and 100 percent of the Electoral College vote so you can stay in Maine through Thanksgiving. No rush to leave."

I knew he was being playful but ignored that. There isn't anything about the upcoming election that I think is amusing. So I said, "You're right. He'll carry New York easily but my vote, every vote this time around is essential because Biden needs a mandate."

"Go on."

"For a number of reasons."

"I'm listening."

"First, a close result will likely encourage Trump to take a page from the 2000 election playbook when Bush and Gore essentially tied in Florida and the issue was decided by the Supreme Court. They wound up giving Bush the presidency. We can expect Trump to do something similar. So a big vote for Biden, including in New York and California where Dems do almost as well, will discourage vote challenges, including appeals to the Supreme Court."

"Fair point," Bill said. 

"More important," I said, "an electoral mandate for Biden, say with him receiving more than 55 percent of the national popular vote, would make it unlikely that Trump could get away with ignoring the vote altogether and refuse to vacate the White House on Inauguration Day."

Bill said, "About this I'm skeptical. If Trump is in any way serious about ignoring the will of the people I'm not sure how the vote totals would deter him."

"I'm not sure either," I sighed, "but I think it's urgent for us to do anything and everything we can to help Biden. Including to actually take office after receiving a mandate. With all the New York votes he can muster. Thus, we're returning to the city no later than mid October. And a couple of weeks later, voting."

Bill smiled.

June 10, 2019--No Need to Vote

I've been hearing from friends who live in blue states that they're not planning to vote next year.

"You must be kidding," I've been saying. "You're lifelong liberals, Democrats, you can't abide Trump, and yet you plan to sit on your hands in November? The 2020 vote may turn out to be our last chance to rid ourselves of him. I'm not sure I want to be involved with you if this is your plan."

"Before you cut me off," one said, "I live in deep-blue Massachusetts. There we can already chalk up the Electoral votes for whoever the Democrats nominate."

"Or California where I live," another said. "Last time around it gave Hillary more than a four-million vote plurality. So what does my vote mean?"

"Then there's New York," one of my oldest friends said, "My vote won't count there either. The Democrat always wins at least 60 percent of the vote."

"I can't believe I'm hearing this," I said and was tempted to change the subject so we could remain friends.

"What's the counter argument?" my California friend asked, "So Biden or the nominee wins by 'only' three-and-a-half million popular votes. But still he cleans up in the Electoral College."

"You're right that what happens with the Electoral votes will determine who becomes president but the national vote also counts in some big ways."

"Enlighten me."

"First of all the potential size of the Democratic plurality will contribute to repudiating Trump. He won't be able to claim that there's fraud if the vote against him adds up to many millions. No matter what states the votes come from. As we know he's all about size."

"Fair point."

"Then there are the potential political consequences. With a big plurality the winner's coat tails will be longer and maybe more Democrats will be elected to Congress. This then could contribute to what legislation gets enacted and, perhaps most important, who can get confirmed to the Supreme Court. In other words, the size of the vote could enable the winner to claim a mandate. Pressure by the electorate to push Congress to protect the environment, women's rights, a sensible approach to foreign affairs. All sorts of things you support that have been gutted by Trump and his administration."

In general, after these conversations pretty much everyone says they will rouse themselves vote to help run up the numbers.

We'll see.