August 17, 2020--In Plain Sight

Not hiding in plain sight, last week, without even having to listen closely, Trump told us why he is messing with the postal service:

To interfere with the gathering and counting of mail-in ballots.

This is an example of what political pundit John Heilemann calls Trump's propensity to either project or confess 

It is Trump's view that there is massive fraud when it comes to these ballots and claims, with a straight face, that he wants to insure that everything is on the up and up.

Is there a bridge in Brooklyn for sale?

The good news may be that he is shooting himself in the foot.

How so?

For example--if voters who want to make sure their ballots count change their minds about voting by mail and decide to do so in person, whose demographic--Trump's or Biden's--is more likely to be able and willing to wait in line for three hours to vote?

A 67 year-old white guy with a beer belly or a 32 year-old teacher who jogs five miles a day?

It may be for this reason that behind the scenes Mitch McConnell is pleading with Trump to back off. He knows mail-in ballots traditionally favor Republicans.

Mitch is right. Play on Donald.

June 9th Primary In Georgia

August 11, 2020--Biden's Bunker

With friends I was debating Joe Biden's pre-election strategy.

Specifically, if his decision to spend the campaign in his Delaware basement office was wise or misdirected.

For the most part my friends were all right with it.

"He's way ahead in the polls," one put it, "Including in almost all the swing states, so why mess up a good thing with his making controversial comments and gaffs."

Others chimed in, "Look, all that we should care about is getting rid of Trump so if this means Biden remains isolated, we shouldn't care. If he's elected there will be plenty of time for him to be out and about."

"I'm coming to have a different view," I said,"I'm concerned that his remaining in self-imposed  quarantine can be attacked politically. Trump, who is out and about, can say Biden is too old to be in public because he's afraid he'll catch the virus and die. Or, Trump can say Biden doesn't want to be unscripted because he'll say something stupid. I remember Jimmy Carter running for reelection from the confines of the White House. Not wanting to be seen campaigning because the Iranians were holding dozens of Americans hostages. They called it the Rose Garden strategy. How did that workout?"

"Reagan was elected," I said.  "So, I worry about Biden."

"In addition Trump gets to fly around the country claiming he's trying to get money to the unemployed while Biden is holed up." 

"Not a bad point," one of my friends said, "Biden emerged from his bunker the other day for an interview with the Association of Hispanic Journalists and stepped right in it, saying that there's more diversity among Latinos than black people. These kind of gaffs aren't doing him any good."

Another friend summed it up, "So back to the basement he goes."

August 3, 2020--Conspiracy Theories

Sounding agitated, Maureen, who called, said, "You know me, right?"

Rona said, "Yes, for certain. Why do you ask?" For Maureen, who is always unflappable, it's unusual for her to sound frustrated.

"You know I'm a rational person, not inclined to believe anything that's not backed up by evidence?"

"That pretty much describes you," I said.

"Well, I'm beginning to wonder."

Simultaneously, Rona and I said, "Tell us what's going on."

"Do you know what Steve Bannon's up to?"

"Steve Bannon?" surprised, I said, "I haven't heard anything from him or about him for ages."


"That's my point," Maureen said, "He's always so accessible. He loves being in the spotlight. So his disappearing from sight is not like him." 

"And you're thinking?" Rona asked. 

"That he must be up to something not good."

"Like what?" I said.

"I'm thinking he's working on Trump's campaign. Maybe even running it or pulling the strings of those who appear to be in charge."

"Not uninteresting," Rona said.

"He's open about liking chaos, including fulminating it. And what are we seeing? Trump's campaign is all about chaos. He makes everyone crazy, including changing strategies every five minutes, and then puts himself forward as the only one who can solve the problems he created."

"That sounds right to me," Rona said.

"And we wonder when the latest distraction arrives--many of them perversely clever--like creating chaos in Portland which then 'justifies' sending in U.S. troops--we wonder who is coming up with these ideas because Trump clearly is not smart or strategic enough to do so. And he doesn't appear to have anyone on his official staff, including Steven Miller, clever enough to come up with these devious schemes. So, to me, all roads lead to Bannon."

"That's pretty interesting," I said.

"Thank you. But here's what's worrying me."

"What's that?"

"I'm becoming a conspiracy theorist!"

"Yes and no," Rona said, "What you're saying about Steve Bannon is quite plausible. It helps explain a lot of behavior, which is always a good thing when you're theorizing. Often the simplest explanation in plain sight is the best one. So, maybe that will also be true for this."

"I sure hope so," Maureen said, "Being a conspiracy theorist is the last thing I want to become."

Rona said, "But this one about Bannon I like.

July 23, 2020--Trump's War

Many on the left--me included--have assumed that close to Election Day, if he found himself slipping badly in the polls, a desperate Trump would start a war of distraction. 

Not a war with China or Russia or even Iran, but one of Reagan size--remember Grenada? A wag-the-dog sort of war. Just sufficient for Trump to rally enough voters to the cause to reelect him.

We may now be at that moment. Trump is losing to Biden among virtually all demographic subgroups and in all six key swing states. Trump is flailing around, having lost more than a full step.

His war may turn out to be one against America. Against the cities of America. Against cities with Democratic mayors. Against cities with large African-American populations.

Cities such as Portland, Oregon. Soon against Detroit and Philadelphia and Chicago and New York.

He calls it Operation Legend. I call it treason.

July 21, 2020--A Mandate for Biden

More than 100 days before Election Day we were nonetheless talking about making sure we got back to the city in time to vote. 

I quipped, "The Boy Scout in me makes me want to be prepared."

Bill said"You live in New York City, no?"

"We do," Rona said. 

"That means you don't have to vote," he said.

"We don't have to vote?" After years of our talking about politics I was more than a little surprised to hear him say that. 

"Dems always win in New York. Even a ham sandwich would be elected if it was a Democratic one," Bill said, "So your vote doesn't count. Biden doesn't need it. He'll get the usual 80 percent of New York's votes and 100 percent of the Electoral College vote so you can stay in Maine through Thanksgiving. No rush to leave."

I knew he was being playful but ignored that. There isn't anything about the upcoming election that I think is amusing. So I said, "You're right. He'll carry New York easily but my vote, every vote this time around is essential because Biden needs a mandate."

"Go on."

"For a number of reasons."

"I'm listening."

"First, a close result will likely encourage Trump to take a page from the 2000 election playbook when Bush and Gore essentially tied in Florida and the issue was decided by the Supreme Court. They wound up giving Bush the presidency. We can expect Trump to do something similar. So a big vote for Biden, including in New York and California where Dems do almost as well, will discourage vote challenges, including appeals to the Supreme Court."

"Fair point," Bill said. 

"More important," I said, "an electoral mandate for Biden, say with him receiving more than 55 percent of the national popular vote, would make it unlikely that Trump could get away with ignoring the vote altogether and refuse to vacate the White House on Inauguration Day."

Bill said, "About this I'm skeptical. If Trump is in any way serious about ignoring the will of the people I'm not sure how the vote totals would deter him."

"I'm not sure either," I sighed, "but I think it's urgent for us to do anything and everything we can to help Biden. Including to actually take office after receiving a mandate. With all the New York votes he can muster. Thus, we're returning to the city no later than mid October. And a couple of weeks later, voting."

Bill smiled.

June 10, 2020--Kool Aid

Desperately in need of the oxygen they provide, an embattled Trump announced he will soon resume mega-rallies. Perhaps as soon as later this week in Texas. 

Polls show Trump and Biden in a statistical dead-heat in the Lone Star state. Four years ago Tump carried Texas by nine points. But Texas is now trending blue, and that has Tump's attention. One thing he knows is how to count. For example, if Biden wins Texas, he will be elected. It's as simple as that.

At these rallies there will be no social distancing, masks will not be in evidence, just thousands of defiant Trumpers in MAGA hats packed together in stifling, virus-ladened arenas.

No matter what health risks his most fervent followers will be exposed to, all that matters to Trump is that they will be there for him, to lift his spirits during this his darkest, most politically perilous hour.

This lack of concern for their very lives reminded me of the victims of the Jonestown cult.

Remember it? Back in 1978 charismatic cult leader, Jim Jones got hundreds of followers from his California-based Peoples Temple to join him at his compound in Guyana to wait for the end of the world.

Settled there and feeling the encroachment of governmental authorities who were concerned about what they were learning Jones was up to, he cranked up the intensity of orgiastic life in the compound.

Then one afternoon Jones assembled his people for a Kool Aid party. What they didn't initially know was that the Kool Aid was laced with cyanide. 

But in spite of this they kept downing the sugary concoction.

As a result 909 died, making it one of the largest non-governmental mass murders in history.

Resisting the temptation to link Jones and Trump too cavalierly, it does not feel too much of a stretch to suggest that Trump's lack of concern for his people (and the rest of us) is not so dissimilar to Jones's disregard for members of his "temple."

Thus, by the end of this election season, Tump is likely to be responsible for the sickness and deaths of scores of his most passionate supporters. 

He claims he is the leader of a movement. To me it seems more like a death cult.

May 14, 2020--The Haters

Politico earlier this week identified a constituency of voters who had not previously been identified--Haters.

These haters hate all the candidates but come November still push themselves to vote.

They have been polled and you might be surprised (and encouraged) by the findings.

Here, from Politico--

President Donald Trump is losing a critical constituency: voters who see two choices on the ballot — and hate them both.

Unlike in 2016, when a large group of voters who disliked both Trump and Hillary Clinton broke sharply for Trump, the opposite is happening now, according to public polling and private surveys conducted by Republicans and Democrats alike.

It's a significant and often underappreciated group of voters. Of the nearly 20 percent of voters who disliked both Clinton and Trump in 2016, Trump outperformed Clinton by about 17 percentage points, according to exit polls.

Four years later, that same group — including a mix of Bernie Sanders supporters, other Democrats, disaffected Republicans and independents — strongly prefers Biden, the polling shows. The former vice president leads Trump by more than 40 percentage points among that group, which accounts for nearly a quarter of registered voters, according to a Monmouth University poll last week.

Interesting, no?

May 7, 2020--Michelle Obama For Veep

For well over a year, fending off concern from friends about my political mental health, I have been talking about a dream ticket to run against Trump--Michelle Obama is drafted to run against Trump and wins in a historic landslide.

Now there is talk about another less dramatic and more realistic dream ticket that could also win in a walk--Biden (for president) and Michelle Obama (for VEEP).

Here is what "The Hill" had to say about this yesterday afternoon--

A Biden-Obama ticket would have a high probability of winning the White House, very possibly by an epic landslide, and winning control of the Senate as well as the House. 

A Biden-Obama victory would represent the historical greatness of the Democratic Party, would decisively change all three branches of government, and would powerfully change the course of American and world history.

Here's how I would frame the deal--privately, Biden tells Obama he would serve for three years and then resign from office, allowing her to become president and get well situated for a run of her own in 2024.

Michelle Obama continues to be America's most admired woman and also I am sure has a deep interest in restoring the Obama legacy. 

I am sane enough to know this is improbable, but desperate times require bold action. More unusual things have happened.

January 30, 2020--Chaos Theory

If you're obsessing as I am about the Trump impeachment trial, your focus is likely on the struggle about witnesses.

Almost all Republican senators appear to oppose having any and want to get to the business of exonerating Trump to allow them to get home in time to watch this weekend's Super Bowl. (This is literally true.)

And it appears that all Democratic senators will vote to include witnesses. Especially John Bolton.

To include witnesses and documents the Dems have to secure at least four maverick Republicans to get to the required 51 votes. This Kabuki drama is being fueled by the cable news networks that like nothing better than covering political horse races.

Republican senators are saying if four members of their caucus bolt and vote with the Democrats to call witnesses, as a quid pro quo, they will insist on subpoenaing Hunter Biden, who, along with his father, they contend, is at the center of all things Ukrainian. Including corruption. 

A few reflections--

If the Republicans are so eager to haul the Bidens in to testify under oath they can arrange that for later this afternoon. 51 votes are all that are needed to compel that and with 53 members the GOP already has the votes they need to force the Bidens to appear before the House.  

Speculate away as to why they do not seem eager to do so. My view is that they really do not want to have even the Bidens as witnesses since they know there is no significant dirt there to stir up and one never knows what will leak out if there is an open process. Perhaps, the truth.

And, if they are ready to vote to keep Trump in office, they also have the votes for that and could get that done in time for the kickoff.

I therefore see it to be likely that Mitch McConnell has the votes to squelch any move to call witnesses and therefore will let the witnesses and expulsion votes occur on Friday. He and Trump and all but two or three Republican senators are on board for that. They also assume the public, 75 percent of whom want witnesses, will be upset about a Senate coverup but within just a week or two will have moved on to the next outrage. Call it outrage overload. 

If you've been following what I've been writing you know none of this disturbs me. In fact, the opposite as I wrote last week--"the worser the better." 

The more things drift toward chaos, the better it is for Democratic chances to defeat Trump in November and take control of the Senate. The voting public will make Republicans pay for this shameful coverup.

I would feel otherwise and be focused on the upcoming House votes--on witnesses and Trump's fate--if there was any chance of attracting, say, 10 Republican to vote with the Democrats. That would be a different story with very different outcomes. 

I am thus a proponent of chaos. 

January 23, 2020--The Worser the Better.

I'm hearing from people who are so frustrated that they are stepping back from paying attention to the 2020 election. They can't take any more either from or about Trump.

They are trying to do other things with their lives. Things such as listening to music, reading again, talking to their spouses, and watching diverting programs on TV. Rona and I, for example, via Netflix, have been working our way through the 153 episodes of Gilmore Girls--seven years worth!--and immersing ourselves in Miles Davis CDs. 

I can't say that I blame my exhausted friends. They need to get their rest. And a grip.

The current predicament is the struggle to disengage from the day-to-day while still obsessed with the impeachment trial underway in the Senate. Not exactly a sitcom, but still it's an historic event and hard to click away from. And how much Shark Tank can one take?

Those who I'm hearing from haven't yet managed to kick the Trump habit and can't stop themselves from watching the trial. It will take awhile for them (and me) to detox. 

Is there a 12-step program we can join?

Knowing that there is no way for Trump to be removed from office by the Senate--Mitch has the votes to prevent that--we are zeroed in, therefore, on whether or not my Maine senator Susan Collins, to save her political skin, can find three others to vote with her to force McConnell to subpoena witnesses. Actually, not witnesses but John Bolton, who claims he has a story to tell. It must be a really good one because he has a $5.0 million book deal.

I've been saying to friends who see having Bolton testify as the meaning of life that they are failing to keep their eyes on the prize. That prize is making sure Trump is defeated in November. If we agree about that, the best way to help that along would be for the Republican-controlled trial to turn into a fiasco, including screaming, yelling, and ignoring the Chief Justice who is presiding and will plead for civility.

McConnell does not agree to witnesses and will ram a vote to acquit down the throats of his people. And once Bolton's book is published (I suspect right after Labor Day) everything he has to say will enter he public record just weeks before the election. That will be the October Surprise.

All the major news outlets will clamor to interview him. He will appear on the five Sunday talk shows and be on Sixty Minutes for the full hour. Reviews will be published above the fold on the front pages of the Times, Washington Post, and WSJ.

What Bolton will have to say will be a disaster for Trump.

The only down side? Trump will try to get us into a distracting hot war.

But one way or the other, Trump may be cooked.

In sum--the worse things get the better they are.

January 2, 2020--Jack: Impeachment

"I can't believe you guys stepped in it."

"Make it quick Jack, I only have a few minutes for you." 

This was not true, I had time on my hands as I usually do during the holiday season, but I was in no mood to get involved with him. I'd rather be staring at the ceiling. 

"I'm talking about impeachment. Especially what your Dems are up to."

"Going after Trump, that's what we're up to. And I say, it's about time."

"So he's got you snookered too. I love that." I could hear him chuckling. 

"I repeat--I only have a few minutes for you."

"I'll bet you never heard of this one." I stifled myself, not responding, and so Jack continued, "She fell right into his trap. Trump's" He paused, trying to engage me. I continued to hold my tongue, "How did this whole impeachment thing get started?"

"Enlighten me." I didn't know where he was going with this.

"By Trump ordering the release of the written transcript of his conversation with the newly-elected president of Ukraine. The so-called extortion or bribery conversation where he told Zelensky he would release the authorized military assistance money to Ukraine if they agreed to dig up dirt about the Bidens."

"Of course I know about that. It was pretty stupid for your boy to try to get away with that."

"At the time a lot of media people and liberals were also gleeful, thinking he gave them the smoking gun up front. With Nixon the smoking gun was at the end of the impeachment process with Trump it was up front. Your people thought he shot himself in the foot and off they raced to get impeachment going. You remember, I'm sure, that Nancy didn't want to go there. She was worried that like with Clinton if Trump got impeached by only the Democrats his favorables would go up. It would help him get reelected. But when he released the transcript Pelosi couldn't continue to duck going for impeachment. She had no choice but to unleash Schiff."

"So far, we agree."

"Good. Now let's look at this from where the situation is going rather than where it is--stalled in the House because Nancy doesn't want to send the articles of impeachment to Mitch in the Senate until she has rules in place to call witnesses and examine subpoenaed documents. Mitch is happy about her slowing the process down because as soon as he gets back from New Years he'll start to claim the Dems are engaged in a coverup. They know Trump is not going to be voted out of office. That the Democrats are engaged in a witch hunt. Blah, blah. You've heard all this before. But best of all Nancy is playing right into his hands. She's been smart up to this point but very soon her political strategy is going to come crashing down."

I said, "About this we disagree. Mitch is going to have to allow a few witnesses since if he doesn't it will look like what it is--that he and his senators are engaged in a coordinated coverup. Can you imagine what Bolton and Rudy have to say as witnesses? They may turn out to be the real smoking guns."

"Some of this could happen," Jack said, "but it won't matter. Whatever the Dems come up with--witnesses, emails, stuff like that--Trump is not getting kicked out of office. He's going to be found not guilty and ten minutes after that vote he'll embark on a 10-city Exoneration Tour, boasting there was no collusion, no bribery, no obstruction. Then he'll get the Clinton bump."

"What a nightmare," I said under me breath.

"If you see things unfolding that way--and I'm sure you do," he chuckled again, "it's obvious Trump is behind the whole thing. He's the only one smart enough to come up with this scenario and sucker the Democrats into moving against him. He wanted to be impeached. He engineered the whole thing. And now he'll expose Nancy's failed strategy and take Biden down at the same time. Sort of like a trick shot in pool. Two for one. And that will leave the Democrats with Bernie as their candidate. A trifecta for our president."

My head was throbbing. Was I ever sorry I answered the phone. I swore that next time . . .

September 30, 2019--Ukraine Fall Out

We should stay focused on the House of Representatives' move toward the impeachment of Donald Trump. That is obviously the most important and promising news of the last two, three years.

But also of consequence is the effect it will have on the 2020 election. Concern that it could tip things in Trump's direction was the primary reason Nancy Pelosi was so reluctant to proceed. She remembered how Bill Clinton's approval rating went up while his impeachment unfolded.

So what should we expect?

Unlike Trump, Clinton was in his second term and the economy was booming. Not as currently primarily for wealthy people. So, I am not expecting to see Trump's number rise. In fact, in just the one week since Ukraine Gate was exposed they appear to be plummeting.

Expect then to see Trump take a political hit. Enough, perhaps, to upend his reelection chances.

What then about the Democrats?

I am anticipating that as we get deeper into all that was going on between Ukrainian officials and oligarchs and Trump, his children Giuliani, Paul Manafort (remember him?), and many others there will be much more fall out. Ukraine, after all, is primarily a place known as a money laundry.

Fairly or not, therefore, expect to see Joe Biden driven from the race.

Again, fairly or not expect to see his son Hunter Biden dragged deeper into the mess. Does anyone believe that if his last name wasn't Biden he would have been invited to serve on the board of Burma Holdings, a Ukrainian natural gas producer?

He served on that board from 2014 to 2019, which happens to be among the same years that his father was Barack Obama's Vice President. That didn't hurt his employment prospects.

We know that Trump will hammer away at this. Who could expect him not too. It is teed up for him.

And so Joe Biden will have to leave the race because Democratic voters really do care about draining the swamp. And to make the case that Trump made the swap swampier, Biden needs to not be our nominee. He is already being characterized as part of the problem. By Democratic activists. And as a result he has little chance of being nominated. 

By remaining in the race he will only further sully his reputation.

The main political beneficiary? That's easy--Elizabeth Warren.

August 27, 2019--Go For It Donald!

When after the El Paso mass murders I heard that Trump was considering support for stricter background checks for people purchasing guns, I was pleased. 

When because the stock market was falling Trump was getting increasingly concerned about how this would effect his claim that his economic policies were working, especially the tariffs on Chinese imports, but now he was having "second thoughts" about his policies, regardless of his political motivation, I was happy.

When Trump also appeared to have second thoughts about "ordering" American companies to withdraw from China, I again was happy. 

But then when I caught myself hoping he would at last begin to act as something like a "normal" president, I had second thoughts of my own.

I too have been party to the patriotic sentiment that though I didn't vote for him, though I disagree with and often am outraged by his policies and behavior, still, as a responsible American, I have wanted him to succeed. 

For the sake of the country I have wanted whomever is our president to do well. To strengthen the economy, to maintain the peace, to enhance our alliances, to improve our social safety net, to reduce unemployment and the deficit.

In Trump's case, if I am honest, I want to see him fail. 

On his watch, until after the 2020 election I want unemployment to worsen, the stock market to continue to weaken, the debt to grow, our global alliances to be strained, international tension to build, and the Trump Supreme Court and the federal judiciary to hand down regressive, unpopular decisions.

In other words, I want to see things continue to worsen so that the political climate between now and the presidential election is so fractured and roiled that huge majorities in the right states are motivated to vote for whoever emerges as Trump's opponent.

I understand that this may sound nihilistic and will cause pain, but the real nihilist is an out-of-control Trump and as such he is responsible for spreading pain in America and much of the rest of the world.

Then when he leaves office I will resume hoping all our presidents succeed. Or at least I will pretend to.

August 21, 2019--Biden's Women

I'm trying. Trying to get enthusiastic about supporting Joe Biden. But he doesn't make it easy.

It's not just that he's a gaff machine. Most can be written off as a version of charming. Biden being Biden. Like the other day when he mixed up Burlington Vermont and Burlington Iowa.  

Though even with that, benign as it is, and though the contest for the nomination is not "Jeopardy," it also leaves the lingering concern that these kinds of mixups are not just innocent slips of the tongue but are symptoms of, OK I'll say it, old age. He is 76 and at that not a young 76. 

More concerning is the kind of thing he said the other day at a gathering in Iowa of mainly minority voters when talking off the cuff about the academic potential of at-risk children. He said that "Poor kids are just as bright and just as talented as white kids." 

What is one to make of that? This is more than a slip of the tongue. 

But according to Monday's CNN/SSRS poll it didn't put a dent in black voters' support for him. His numbers in fact have risen since June, especially among white women, particularly older white women. They love Biden and appear to be wiling to stick with him almost no matter what.

I am not saying they are like the Trump people who would stand by him even if he shot someone on Fifth Avenue. Actually, maybe even more would vote for him if he did. Biden's supporters appear to be quite locked in. It seems as if they will remain committed to him almost no matter what.

Some of this increasing support for Biden is the result of women coming to his defense as they see him attacked by the other leading candidates. Especially, counterintuitively, the female candidates. 

(See the results of the CNN poll which show Biden increasing his lead over his closest rivals--now up by 15 percent over Sanders and 14 percent over Warren, while Kamala Harris has the support of just 5 percent of potential Democratic voters.)

The response to Harris is the clearest example of women coming to Biden's rescue  She challenged, some said attacked, some say disrespectfully took on Biden, Barack Obama's vice President, during the first debate. Her poll numbers blipped up for a day or two as did her campaign contributions, but since that time they have trended downward. Recently they have been plummeting.

Perhaps because as they thought about it, potential Democratic voters perceived her to be more angry than passionately engaged with the issues. 

Some of this may be the result of gender bias--what behavior is considered to be appropriate for a woman when confronting a man--some of it may be Harris's hard-charging style, but some of it is Democrats who want to win in 2020 seeing in Biden the candidate most able to defeat Trump. Still the overarching concern of most Democratic voters no matter their demographics and ideology. And thus his people are quick to protect him.

In a political environment where the conventional wisdom does not apply, some of the familiar realities still pertain--especially about race and gender. We are by no means a post racial society nor are men and women running for public office regarded equally. 

It is ironic that much of this is being played out through Joe Biden's candidacy, considering his history when it comes to women and minorities is far from without blemish.

July 19, 2019--"Spare Me the Revolution"

Tom Friedman is not my favorite columnist. For example, to me he can be a little giddy when it comes to extolling the wonders of globalization.  

But earlier this week he wrote a meaningful op ed, most of which I have included below. It is the best piece I've read about how Democrats are inadvertently conspiring to lose the election to Donald Trump.

It will likely make you angry but it also provides a plausible roadmap for how to win--

I’m struck at how many people have come up to me recently and said, “Trump’s going to get re-elected, isn’t he?” And in each case, when I drilled down to ask why, I bumped into the Democratic presidential debates in June. I think a lot of Americans were shocked by some of the things they heard there. I was.

I was shocked that so many candidates in the party whose nominee I was planning to support want to get rid of the private health insurance covering some 250 million Americans and have “Medicare for all” instead. I think we should strengthen Obamacare and eventually add a public option.

I was shocked that so many were ready to decriminalize illegal entry into our country. I think people should have to ring the doorbell before they enter my house or my country.

I was shocked at all those hands raised in support of providing comprehensive health coverage to undocumented immigrants. I think promises we’ve made to our fellow Americans should take priority, like to veterans in need of better health care.

And I was shocked by how feeble was front-runner Joe Biden’s response to the attack from Kamala Harris — and to the more extreme ideas promoted by those to his left.

So, I wasn’t surprised to hear so many people expressing fear that the racist, divisive, climate-change-denying, woman-abusing jerk who is our president was going to get re-elected, and was even seeing his poll numbers rise.

Dear Democrats: This is not complicated! Just nominate a decent, sane person, one committed to reunifying the country and creating more good jobs, a person who can gain the support of the independents, moderate Republicans and suburban women who abandoned Donald Trump in the midterms and thus swung the House of Representatives to the Democrats and could do the same for the presidency. And that candidate can win!

But please, spare me the revolution! It can wait. Win the presidency, hold the House and narrow the spread in the Senate, and a lot of good things still can be accomplished. “No,” you say, “the left wants a revolution now!” O.K., I’ll give the left a revolution now: four more years of Donald Trump.

That will be a revolution.

Four years of Trump feeling validated in all the crazy stuff he’s done and said. Four years of Trump unburdened by the need to run for re-election and able to amplify his racism, make Ivanka secretary of state, appoint even more crackpots to his cabinet and likely get to name two right-wing Supreme Court justices under the age of 40.

Yes sir, that will be a revolution!

It will be an overthrow of all the norms, values, rules and institutions that we cherish, that made us who we are and that have united us in this common project called the United States of America.

If the fear of that doesn’t motivate the Democratic Party’s base, then shame on those people. Not all elections are equal. Some elections are a vote for great changes — like the Great Society. Others are a vote to save the country. This election is the latter.

That doesn’t mean a Democratic candidate should stand for nothing, just keep it simple: Focus on building national unity and good jobs.

I say national unity because many Americans are terrified and troubled by how bitterly divided, and therefore paralyzed, the country has become. There is an opening for a unifier.

And I say good jobs because when the wealth of the top 1 percent equals that of the bottom 90 percent, we do have to redivide the pie. I favor raising taxes on the wealthiest Americans to subsidize universal pre-K education and to reduce the burden of student loans. Let’s give kids a head start and college grads a fresh start.

But I’m disturbed that so few of the Democratic candidates don’t also talk about growing the pie, let alone celebrating American entrepreneurs and risk-takers. Where do they think jobs come from?

The winning message is to double down on redividing the pie in ways that give everyone an opportunity for a slice while also growing the pie sustainably.

Trump is growing the pie by cannibalizing the future. He is creating a growth spurt by building up enormous financial and carbon debts that our kids will pay for.

Democrats should focus on how we create sustainable wealth and good jobs, which is the American public-private partnership model: Government enriches the soil and entrepreneurs grow the companies.

It has always been what’s made us rich, and we’ve drifted away from it: investing in quality education and basic scientific research; promulgating the right laws and regulations to incentivize risk-taking and prevent recklessness and monopolies that can cripple free markets; encouraging legal immigration of both high-energy and high-I.Q. foreigners; and building the world’s best enabling infrastructure — ports, roads, bandwidth and basic social safety nets.

July 8, 2019--Make American Men Great Again

For more than two years, my sister-in-law, Guest Blogger Sharon, and I have been attempting to understand why so many women, white women, 53 percent of them, voted for Trump. It seems so against their best interests. 

Recently she wrote-- 

I still haven’t totally figured it out, including what role religion may have played. I think there are people whose world view or “values” may trump (sorry) self-interest. Just look at the number of women who voted for a misogynist. Or are so pro-life that they are willing to give up control of their own bodies.

Then I wrote--  

About the women who voted for Trump: like you I've been obsessed with trying to understand this since he was elected. Some of it is a version of Evangelical belief about the appropriate place for women in the social and family hierarchy. "In their place" below men. But I have come to conclude it's less about religion than about gender. 

Likely for most of Trump's white men the women's movement tripped off all sorts of scary bells and whistles. Having in many cases to deal with female bosses; having to deal with dramatic changes in sexual behavior where women have come to assume an almost equal role; needing wives to enter the work force not for career reasons but because the men couldn't earn enough to pay the bills and sustain them as stay-at-home wives and mothers, often with the women earning more than their husbands, as a result feeling dispossessed, these men are angry about their shrinking hegemony within the family and the larger society, and voted for Trump in the belief that he would restore things to their natural, their rightful gender dispensation.  

And then for the these women--they want their husbands back. The ones who could support them, dominate them, and make them feel protected and secure. They too feel that something profound has been abrogated, overturned. Thus, that is what making America great again means to them. It really means how to make men a regressive version of great again. 

To progressive women this represents a retreat from all that has been fought for and accomplished during the past 50-60 years; to conservative women this would represent a restoration of the natural order.

The Dems need to figure out how to relate to this in a non-condescending manner for at least two reasons--they'll lose again if they don't and because it's the right way to engage Trump supporters--with understanding and sensitivity. Doing so, though, doesn't mean we need to roll over and come to agree about everything. Or very much. But we do need to show respect for how they are experiencing life in a changed America, and try to find some empathetic common ground.

Toward the end of Hillary Clinton's campaign, when it finally dawned on her and some of her advisors that they were losing white working-class voters--women as well as men--some of her people who had kept Bill Clinton at arms length from participating in campaign strategizing, realizing he was in fact their best strategist, finally asked him what he thought was going on with these voters, mainly the men. He said, "They're dying of a broken heart."

He was right. And since it was too late to reach out to them in appropriate ways, Hillary Clinton lost their votes and ultimately the election.

Fair warning.