February 26, 2020--Fidel & Bernie

With less than a week to go before the crucial Super Tuesday primaries where 40 percent of the Democratic delegates will be up for grabs,  Bernie Sanders, who has been running for president for many years is finally being vetted by his opponents and the media.

For example, until last weekend during a 60 Minutes interview, he had not been pressed about the cost to taxpayers of his ambitious social programs, including how he would pay for them. 

He fumbled around in his response and it was clear he didn't have those numbers readily at hand. He finally said Medicare for All would cost $30 trillion but when asked what about other programs such as free college tuition and forgiving student debt, testily he said--"Well, I can't--you know, I can't rattle off to you every nickel and every dime." 

Nickels and dimes?

This was an irresponsible version of an answer for programs that would cost Americans many trillions more.

When a few months ago Elizabeth Warren was pressed to reveal the cost of her healthcare program, also Medicare for All, when she released a detailed budget, with costs also running into tens of trillions and no meaningful plan for how to play for them, she was rightfully excoriated and her poll numbers--she had been in first place--began to slip. To a point where she is no longer realistically viable. 

Sanders, just a few days ago, for the first time, was asked about his comments some years back that appeared to show support for Fidel Castro's agenda and spoke about how the first thing Fidel did in 1959 when he took power was institute an island-wide literacy program. Not a word about the brutal side of Castro's rule. Bernie came off sounding as if he was an apologist for the communist presidente.

Rather than saying his views about Castro were expressed some years ago, that they have "evolved," and he no longer has such a favorable opinion of Fidel--though that would be a fib--a day or two later he doubled-down in another interview while his advisors shrugged, claiming this was just an example of Bernie being Bernie. Unlike traditional politicians he is not a hypocrite and is "consistent" in his views. (Some would say rigid.)

Though there is something attractive about a presidential candidate being a truth teller, doesn't Sanders recognize that this time around it's all about winning and that some prevaricating is a small price to pay if it contributes to ridding us of Trump?

Also lurking, waiting to be exposed and mocked are his favorable views of the Sandinistas and Soviets. Apparently while on his honeymoon trip to Moscow he came away a fervent admirer of the chandeliers in the Moscow subway and by implication the USSR system.

This positive assessment of Castro and the Soviets may cost him the election because by giving Fidel a pass, it is hard to see Sanders carrying Florida and in a close Electoral College election it could again come down to Florida, Florida, Florida.

Sanders is making it too easy for Trump to caricature him.

If you think I am being unfair to Sanders by demagoguing Castro, back in my college days I helped establish a Fair Play for Cuba chapter in New York City, met Castro and Che Guevara, and read Jean-Paul Sartre's On Cuba cover-to-cover three times!

This is not about Cuba but Sanders' candidacy.

I got over my infatuation with the Cuban Revolution before I turned 25. Bernie at 78, not so much.

Fidel Castro in New York 1959

February 3, 2020--Vetting Bernie

Elizabeth Warren has been put through the ringer ever since she revealed details about how she was proposing to pay for her version of Medicare for All.

As she should have been. As all the leading candidates should have been. We need to know if they are offering pie in the sky or policies that make sense and are affordable.

This sort of scrutiny comes with the territory when running for president. Especially when taxpayers assess the highlights of a candidates' domestic agenda that would cost us tens of trillions in additional taxes or increased debt.

Warren was second or third in the national polls when she showed voters her numbers; but since getting into the budgetary weeds about her plans she has slipped. She's now locked in fourth place as her numbers continue to slide.

The main political beneficiary of her descent is the other most progressive candidate--Bernie Sanders. Depending on the poll, he has moved solidly into second or even first place. Tied with or ahead of Biden.

In spite of his rise Bernie has not been seriously vetted. He got this far on a pass. It might be good to wonder why.

For example, according to Steve Rattner, though Warren disclosed her health plan would cost tens of trillions of dollars more than currently being spent on Medicare, the additional cost to taxpayers for Sanders' Medicare for All proposal over ten years, rarely discussed, could be as much as twice that.  ($30-40 trillion versus her $20.5 trillion).

Looking at the cost of some of their other plans Bernie's continue to be much more expensive--

For the Green New Deal, Warren would spend $3.0 trillion more than we currently budget for environmental  programs whereas Sanders' additional spending would reach $16.3 trillion. More than five times as much.

For free college tuition, Warren budgets $610 billion while Bernie would spend less--"only" $480 billion.

To eliminate student debt, Warren would allocate $640 billion, while Sanders would increase the budget by $1.6 trillion. Four times as much.

When asked to explain how they would pay for these and other programs they both talk about instituting wealth taxes. When one looks at the numbers, however, Warren's increased taxes on the very rich would yield $3.75 trillion while Bernie's would net just a little more--$4.35 trillion.

In both cases additional trillions would be required to make their proposals revenue neutral. Good luck with that.

We all know that if any of these programs could be approved by Congress their cost would be added to the federal debt. The same place where Trump's trillions in tax cuts for the mega-rich fester.

If we want to defeat Tump at the polls in November we had better do some of own vetting before Trump and his henchmen do it for us.

November 4, 2019--Stupid Is

Until Friday my favorite stupid thing was Trump releasing what he calls a "transcript" (which it isn't) of his July 25th "perfect" telephone call with Ukraine president, Volodymyr Zelensky. In effect, a confession that he did indeed commit a crime when he tried to lure Zelensky into digging up dirt on the Bidens.

Next most stupid would be Trump reading the full 8-pager on TV in what he is calling a version of a Franklin Roosevelt's fireside chat. 

With a six-pack at my side, I'd want to soak up every word and nuance of the reading. Unless Trump redacted it further, it would underline its confessional nature. 

Next for Trump would be for him to actually shoot someone on Fifth Avenue (where, from a New Yorker's perspective, Trump will thankfully no longer be living) to see if he could get away with it. 

The answer to that one--yes he would.

Now, in a perverse bipartisan trope, Elizabeth Warren has done something almost equally stupid--at the end of last week she announced how she, if elected, would pay for her Medicare for All plan.

First, all 130 million who have private medical insurance would no longer be covered that way because if her proposal was enacted all would lose that coverage. How politically stupid is that? That the 130 million of us who have even far from perfect private insurance would trust the government to do a better job of providing medical insurance then, say, Aetna of Humana?

Then, continuing the stupid theme, she acknowledges that her plan would cost an additional $20.5 trillion. That's "trillion" with a "T."

This would double our current national debt since there is no way Congress would pass legislation to get billionaires and corporations to pay for it via dramatically increased taxes.

The plan put forth by Warren will likely derail her candidacy. Just as she was catching up with or passing Biden and Sanders in the polls, on Friday she dropped this plan, hoping it would slip by unnoticed. 

Quite the contrary--her plan, going forward, is how she will be characterized and mocked by Trump and her Democratic opponents. It's already happening. I can only imagine the nicknames Trump has in store for her.

What is it with Democrats that we are so prone to self-sabotage? Just as I was feeling better as Nancy Pelosi and the House moved the impeachment process into strategically smart higher gear, Warren does this. 

It could be politically even worse if her plan calls for free health care for undocumented immigrants. I can't yet bring myself to research that. It is already bad enough.

September 10, 2019--Jack: Elizabeth Warren

A quivering Jack slid into the banquette next to me.

"You seem all excited this morning."

"Why shouldn't I be," he said to me. Rona had her head buried in the Times.

"Because the hurricane didn't strike Alabama?"

"I can't believe people are still talking about that," Jack said, "What's the big deal?"

"It shows Trump as either geographically challenged or unhinged."

"Could be both," I added with a snicker.

"Or maybe as you wrote," he turned to face me squarely, "That he's trying to nudge Alabamans to replace their Democratic senator with a Republican."

"A sexual predator no less."

Ignoring that, he said, "Look, I only have a minute. Let me get to what I want to talk with you about."

"What's got you all excited?"

"The latest CBS poll. I read about it this morning and raced right over to see you."

"I didn't see it yet," I said, "Enlighten me."

"It has Poca . . . I mean Elizabeth Warren in the lead. About one point ahead of Biden. But still in the lead."

"I thought you were ignoring polls," from behind the paper, Rona said, "It's too early blah, blah, blah. The polls don't capture Trump's people accurately, blah, blah, blah."

"This one's a little different," Jack said, "It tallies . . ."

"To save you time, let's agree that you're now interested in polls because they contain news you like."

"I'll acknowledge that," he said, smiling, "But let me tell you what this one shows."

"Go on," Rona sounded weary.

"It projects the delegate count. How delegates to the Democratic convention will vote for the various candidates. It shows Warren with slight leads over Biden and Bernie. What's interesting is that Biden's and Sanders's numbers are holding steady while Warren is picking up delegates from other candidates' supporters. Candidates like Kamala Harris and Beto O'Rourke who are slipping further and further behind."

"This whole thing feels bogus to me," I said, "As far as I know no one yet knows who the delegates are going to be. So how can they be polled?"

Jack didn't respond, so I asked, "What else do you have on your mind? There must be more than this flimsy material."

"I'll admit this polling business is a little technical for me, but you have to agree that Warren is doing better and better."

"It does look like that. But why this sudden interest in Warren? I assume she's not one of your favorites."

"It means if she somehow holds on and wins the nomination get ready for four more years of The Donald."

"My recurrent nightmare," Rona said, still using the paper as a scrim.

"Don't be so gleeful," I said, "Polls still show Biden with pretty good leads. Of likely voters not fictitious delegates. In fact, in the early primary states--Iowa and South Carolina among others--Biden appears to be increasing his lead. And they show him trouncing Trump."

Jack said, "But if Warren wins the nomination Trump gets reelected. After Hillary do you think this country's ready for a woman?"

"I do," I said, "And polls, again polls, show that."

"But this woman? Warren wants Medicare for all, the end of private health insurance, student loan forgiveness--a trillion dollar item--free college--another trillion--open borders, including free food stamps and health insurance for even illegal immigrants. And more trillions, I think it adds up to three trillion, for climate change. I could go on. If she wins the nomination I can hear Trump saying, 'Thank you, thank you. There is a God,'"

"Be careful what you wish for," Rona had folded and put down the paper. "She was supposed to get killed when she first ran for the Senate in Massachusetts but won overwhelmingly. And now we're seeing her rising in the polls and doing very well when it comes to raising money for her campaign."

"Speaking of that," Jack said with a toothy grin, "Also in that paper of yours, on the front page," he tapped it where it lay on the table, "there's a story about how though she says she rejects the practice of going after wealthy donors she has been doing that for years and as a result has tens of million stashed away in her campaign war chest. What a hypocrite. I can't wait until the Republicans and the media get their hands on that."

"Funny, about that," I said, "I come to a totally different conclusion."

"I'm all ears."

"It shows me she's pragmatic. Not just an ideological policy wonk. She's in it to win it. That she's willingly to do what she has to do to gather the resources she needs to prevail. Even if it makes her vulnerable to the charge that she's 'just another politician.'"

"Like you're socialist friends you live in dreamland. I live in the real world where things are not so clear."

"And I live in a world," I said, "where Trump's approval ratings are slipping below 40 percent."

Jack had slid out of the booth and, without a goodbye, headed for the door.

August 1, 2019--Dem's Losing Strategy

Trump must be licking his abundant chops.

Here's what the most progressive Democrats are cooking up to confront him with--

Implement Medicare for All, claiming that it will cost middle-class people less for heath insurance because they will eliminate all expensive private plans. So most of the million who are currently insured via their employers will need to seek government-run alternative coverage. Many will have to find different doctors but it will be good. Trust us.

While they're at it they will "decriminalize" illegal border crossings and thereby make undocumented immigrants eligible for free health care as well as education benefits such as Pell Grants and student loans. It will be good. Trust us.

How this will be paid for isn't part of the discussion but we know it will cost trillions, most of which will be added to the debt. Taxing the top one percent isn't going to cover the cost of very much of this. As usual, average people will have to pick up the tab.

And never mind of course that none of this will find its way into legislation. Though as Elizabeth Warren said, why run for president if you are afraid to "think big."

I say why run for president if you aren't obsessed with defeating Trump, holding off on promoting policies the are politically tone deaf until after the election.

Trump must feel he died and went to heaven. All he has to do is make Warren and Sanders the face of the Democratic Party. Then there are AOC and her Squad colleagues ready to caricature.

June 28, 2019--Winners & Losers

Picking winners and losers from this week's Democratic debate is easy--

There was one big loser. Joe Biden. Forget what he had to say (which is easy to do). Just look at him. He's OLD. Very old. And an old 76 at that. Expect his numbers to plummet. People like me desperate to find someone who can as assuredly as possible defeat Trump need to move on.

There were three big winners--

The third place winner was Elizabeth Warren. It was not that hard to imagine her in the Oval Office. At least there would be someone there with knowledge and energy. 

The second place winner was Kamala Harris. Not the biggest winner. Her takedown of Biden will live in debate history.

The biggest winner, though, was Donald Trump. 

This is because whichever Democrat wins the nomination will lose because they all lemming-like, by raising their hands in assent, saddled themselves with impossible to defend commitments they made to illegal immigrants (that they deserve free healthcare as soon as thy cross the border and that the crossing itself should be decriminalized) and to the medically uninsured-- there will be Medicare for all, paid for by phasing out private health insurance. 185 million Americans have private insurance and for the most part like it. 

Also, in the new frontrunner's case, Kamala Harris, it appears that she is calling for a return to forced bussing to reduce segregation in public schools.

The only good news--it's early, very early. Seven months until the Iowa caucuses. These folks, though, need to get their act together.