February 13, 2019--Trump: Size Maters

A dozen years ago a friend bought an apartment in one of Trump's glittering New York City residential towers. 

The first time we visited the concierge stationed at the gold lamé reception desk directed us to apartment 8C. 

In the elevator we struggled with what button to push to get us there. Struggled because there were no buttons for 1 through 8. Just one for 8 and others for higher floors.

"Don't worry about it," Rona said, "Just press 8 and we'll see what happens. Worst case scenario we'll go back down to the lobby and ask them how to get to the lower floors. I mean in a situation where many floors seem to be missing. If you live on 7, for example, what do you do?"

I shrugged and pressed 8. Silently, the doors slid shut. Then, almost instantly a bell pinged, the elevator glided to a smooth stop, and the doors opened. Tentatively, we got out and searched from door to door in the dimly lit hall before finding 8C.

Once inside the apartment, still wondering how we got to 8 so quickly, while getting the grand tour, I looked out the window toward East 62nd Street and noticed we weren't all that high up. In fact, it looked as if we were on the first or, at most, the second floor. One or two levels above the lobby entrance.

After settling in with a drink, I asked my friend about being on the eighth floor while it seemed that we in fact were at most on the second.

Smiling, he said, "That's Donald Trump for you. Always exaggerating, always hustling. He's brilliant at that. You pay a lot more for being on the eighth floor than the second."

I recalled that yesterday when reading about Trump's rally in El Paso.

About 30 minutes into it, he said he was being challenged by "a young man who's got very little going for himself except he's got a great first name." He was referring to Beto O'Rourke who was leading a counter rally and is thinking about running for president. 

Trump said, "So we have, let's say, 35,000 people tonight. He has 200 people, 300 people. Not too good," Trump claimed, "That may be the end of his presidential bid."

Trump as we know is not that good at estimating crowd size. Or, referencing Marco Rubio, dealing with size in general. Recall how Trump claimed, still contends that his inauguration had the largest crowd in history, even though the Mall in Washington was more than half empty. And about what Rubio implied about the size of Trump's hands, the less said the better.

The El Paso County Coliseum where Trump had his rally holds 6,500 and was full. In addition the El Paso fire department estimated that another 5,000 who couldn't get in watched on big screen TVs. 

O'Rourke's rally, which was a half mile away was outdoors, occurred at the same time as Trump's, and, the police estimated, attracted up to 10,000. In other words, at least as many as Trump's.

I suspect Beto will join the race (among other things he needs a job) and though I think he has little chance of winning the nomination, political rockstar that he is, he sure can draw a crowd. At least in his hometown.

   

December 28, 2018--How Now, Dow Jones

Talk about behavioral economics where individuals making purchases such as a house, overpay because they are emotionally drawn to it and ignore running the numbers carefully because if they did they might discover there are rational reasons to negotiate a better price or keep house shopping even though by acting that way with their best economic interest in mind they might not be able to make a deal for a house they "love." 

Love? Letting emotion take control of a decision to buy a house of one's dreams is the very definition of behavioral economics. 

House of one's dreams? You get the point.

This is why, I suppose, that I was disappointed two days ago when the Dow Jones' measure of stock prices soared by over 1,000 points. An all-time one-day record. I should have been elated since this meant that the value of our investment portfolio did very well indeed. 

I realized I wasn't happy because an historic surge such as Wednesday's was good for Trump who is claiming that since he was elected the market reached record highs. He sees the Dow as the litmus test of his presidency.

But wanting nothing but bad news for him so he will either resign or lose in 2020, I allowed my feelings to subvert what was in my own best economic interest and thus, I spite of my good fortune, I was unhappy. 

In my case this might be considered behavioral politics.

And, by the end of Thursday the Dow was up an additional 260 points. More personal good news for me but I am still feeling unhappy that Trump will have more to brag about. 

But yet, fair and balanced, I need to note that since Election Day 2016, the day Trump was elected, the Dow, from that day through record-setting Wednesday, is up 2,633 points, or 13.3%. The Trump Rally. Ugh.

*   *   *

Then there was Trump's surprise trip to American troops stationed in Iraq.

Shamed into it, Trump finally got around to flying there so he could spend 20 minutes on the ground with American troops deployed in a war zone.

Mission accomplished.

Melania accompanied him to hold his hand and from the bulky look of him he was clearly wearing a bombproof vest under at least a size 65 leather jacket.

While there, someone asked if he had any safety concerns, like the ones he had during Vietnam time when his daddy got him declared 4F, unable to serve, because of a bone spur in one of his feet. A spur, incidentally, that did not deter him from playing football.

About concern for his safety, he said-- 

I had some concerns for the institution of the presidency because--not for myself, personally. I had concerns for the first lady, I will tell you. But if you had seen what we had to go through, with the darkened plane, with all the windows closed, with no lights on whatsoever, anywhere--pitch black. I've never seen it. I've been in many airplanes--all types and shapes and sizes. I've never seen anything like it.

Concern for the institution of the presidency? Spoken like the commander-in-chief he is.