August 30, 2019--Trump's Second Thoughts

If I believed he had first thoughts I might feel a bit optimistic that Trump is having second thoughts about his ill-begotten China tariff policy which, if implemented, would drag the global economy down to the same level England will shortly experience after they Brexit.

For weeks Trump has been in full Twitter as he excoriated China and its leaders and how they dishonestly manage their economy. All to our disadvantage, Trump has been fulminating.

But then last Friday when the Dow Jones Average shed 700 points Trump hit the panic button. He has been using the Dow as his personal barometer of how well the economy has been doing on his watch. 

Not so good the bears were now saying. Talk of inflation was also in the air. Not the kind of economic news any president wants to run on when seeking reelection.

And so he had second thoughts. 

When asked about the tariffs during the G-7 meeting in France he said that sure he is having second thoughts. He has them all the time about everything. And "that's a good thing." 

It is easier, of course, to have multiple thoughts about everything if you don't believe in anything other than your own wellbeing. 

But as with so much, it depends on the second thoughts. To rethink engaging in a ruinous trade war, having real second thoughts is a good thing. With emphasis on "real." 

What is in fact underway with China is not anything resembling normal negotiations or diplomacy but rather a play on Trump's part to enhance his domestic political standing. Period.

Here's how it is working with the tariffs but it equally applies to how he approaches background checks or immigration. Actually, with Trump how it applies to everything.

He's a master of having it both ways, or even more than both ways. In his case, this is easy to get away with since his supporters (a shrinking pool polls are now showing) are low-information voters (I'm trying to be kind) and as such are not as concerned as evidence-based voters when it comes to flip-flops and contradictions and facts.

For Trump's people he is incapable of flip-flopping or acting inconsistently. Wherever he says, whatever he does is by definition true and consistent. If it comes from him, truth is not the issue. Though in a perverse way it is because, ex cathedra, whatever he says or does is or becomes the truth.

Then there are direct political advantages for him to having multiple thoughts about the same thing--it gives his believers (and  I consider them believers) more to embrace, more to accept, more rituals and incantations by which to be guided.

So, when it comes to tariffs some of his supporters can be for them while others can oppose them, all the while both being for HIM. Which after all is the point.

December 28, 2018--How Now, Dow Jones

Talk about behavioral economics where individuals making purchases such as a house, overpay because they are emotionally drawn to it and ignore running the numbers carefully because if they did they might discover there are rational reasons to negotiate a better price or keep house shopping even though by acting that way with their best economic interest in mind they might not be able to make a deal for a house they "love." 

Love? Letting emotion take control of a decision to buy a house of one's dreams is the very definition of behavioral economics. 

House of one's dreams? You get the point.

This is why, I suppose, that I was disappointed two days ago when the Dow Jones' measure of stock prices soared by over 1,000 points. An all-time one-day record. I should have been elated since this meant that the value of our investment portfolio did very well indeed. 

I realized I wasn't happy because an historic surge such as Wednesday's was good for Trump who is claiming that since he was elected the market reached record highs. He sees the Dow as the litmus test of his presidency.

But wanting nothing but bad news for him so he will either resign or lose in 2020, I allowed my feelings to subvert what was in my own best economic interest and thus, I spite of my good fortune, I was unhappy. 

In my case this might be considered behavioral politics.

And, by the end of Thursday the Dow was up an additional 260 points. More personal good news for me but I am still feeling unhappy that Trump will have more to brag about. 

But yet, fair and balanced, I need to note that since Election Day 2016, the day Trump was elected, the Dow, from that day through record-setting Wednesday, is up 2,633 points, or 13.3%. The Trump Rally. Ugh.

*   *   *

Then there was Trump's surprise trip to American troops stationed in Iraq.

Shamed into it, Trump finally got around to flying there so he could spend 20 minutes on the ground with American troops deployed in a war zone.

Mission accomplished.

Melania accompanied him to hold his hand and from the bulky look of him he was clearly wearing a bombproof vest under at least a size 65 leather jacket.

While there, someone asked if he had any safety concerns, like the ones he had during Vietnam time when his daddy got him declared 4F, unable to serve, because of a bone spur in one of his feet. A spur, incidentally, that did not deter him from playing football.

About concern for his safety, he said-- 

I had some concerns for the institution of the presidency because--not for myself, personally. I had concerns for the first lady, I will tell you. But if you had seen what we had to go through, with the darkened plane, with all the windows closed, with no lights on whatsoever, anywhere--pitch black. I've never seen it. I've been in many airplanes--all types and shapes and sizes. I've never seen anything like it.

Concern for the institution of the presidency? Spoken like the commander-in-chief he is.

February 5, 2018--How Sick Is This?

The Dow Jones Average Friday plunged 666 points. (Note the number.)

Searching for reasons, I found a few--

Since the Devin Nunes memo turned out to be what Bret Stephens in the New York Times called a nothing-burger it is thought that this means it wasn't going to be the get-out-of-jail card Donald Trump's enablers were hoping for. (Talk about a nothing-burger.) If Trump continues to be in peril, it's by definition bad for business.

Then, Alan Greenspan (remember him?) warned that there are currently two bubbles in the financial market--a bond bubble and a stock bubble. That about covers it.

When chairman of the Fed, except when he wasn't, he was considered to be infallible. Partly because of his job but also because, perhaps more important, his words were often intentionally incoherent and thus considered to be as if they were coming directly from the Oracle. As to why incoherent riddles might be considered to be wisdom, it is because the original Oracle's words were in Classic Greek, not Greenspan's metaphoric Greek, as in "It's all Greek to me."

Finally, most put forth as the explanation for the slide in stock values, was the clear evidence that after decades of frustrated waiting, workers are finally seeing an increase in their wages. Up 2.9 percent in January as compared to a year ago.

How sad, how sick is it that what's good for the struggling middle class is bad for business. That's not a nothing-burger. It's a whopper. 

May 30, 2013--Dow Wow!

Though stocks gave back some of their gains yesterday, the Dow Jones Industrial Average is at an all time high. Even pessimistic bears on CNBC are looking less dour, even suggesting that maybe, just maybe this is not another blip or bubble but reflects a much stronger American economy.

Looking for explanations about the positive economic news, some are saying that U.S. investments are doing well because everywhere else--from Europe to Japan and China--things are heading in the opposite direction. South Americans, the French, Russian oligarchs, Middle East sheiks are all looking for safe havens, and America is pretty much it.

No one, of course, is giving Barack Obama any credit, even though the Dow has more than doubled during his watch; housing prices are dramatically rebounding; and Obamacare, though not yet fully rolled out, is already significantly cutting the cost of health care. And we know that if things were doing poorly here he would be getting all the blame He can't win for losing.

Thus I've been wondering again why this is true--why Obama (who has many leadership faults) is so vilified. Listen to late night talk radio if you want a taste of who is living under rocks. The stuff they spew is borderline seditious.

One reason is that he likes to be the smartest person in the room, especially when with Republican members of Congress. At those times there's not that much competition for who's brightest. You've got Mitch McConnell, John Boehner, Paul Ryan, Michele Bachmann, and Barack Obama. Not much of a contest. But if Obama were really smart--I mean politically smart--he'd tone it down to see if there might be some way to get some things done.

And then they also know, in addition to rubbing their faces in their--how to put this--ignorance, he also can't stand them as individuals. He even hates having a very occasional drink or dinner with Republicans. To cite Maureen Dowd, he seems to be missing the "schmoozing gene."

He has those few people he likes and then there is everyone else. Being so obviously contemptuous of his congressional colleagues (including most Democrats) is a huge impediment to working together on some of our really big problems.

Then, of course, there is the problem that he's cool and they're not. Even their children and grandchildren think Obama is cool, and one can only imagine how that makes Mitch and company feel.  Old, cranky, out of touch. Not a good basis for a relationship.

Finally, there is the unspoken issue that probably for many in the GOP trumps all the others--Obama's otherness. His "foreignness," the way he grew up in Indonesia, and the fact that he's . . . black.

It's probably too late for Obama to mend any fences or forge a few good relationships--like the one he clearly has with his bromantic partner Chris Christie--but I would like to see him give it a try. For our sake or, if that is not sufficient motivation, for his place in history