August 3, 2018--Trump's Friday Night Massacre

With the Paul Manafort trial under way and with hints that the Mueller investigation may be close to culminating, Trump seems more and more panicked and out of control.

In one of his flood of tweets yesterday he ranted again about Attorney General Jeff Sessions, pressing him to end the "witch hunt" that is "hurting the country." 

Legal scholars say that this public pressure by the president in itself may constitute obstruction of justice. Trump's lawyers are once again frustrated that they are unable to get him to calm down and not do himself even more harm than he has already inflicted through his rash public statements. 

How likely is that? 

From the prosecution at the Manafort trial required via "disclosure" to reveal the evidence they have against him, Trump for the first time is seeing the details of the strong case the government is presenting. The likelihood that Manafort will be convicted or, for Trump more threatening, will flip before the end of the trial (it happens all the time) has him unhinged.

And then, again through discovery and Michael Cohen beginning to reveal the goods he has on Trump and his family, Trump may be getting glimpses of the devastating case about to come crashing down on him. 

Thus his mouthpiece Rudy Giuliani is racing from cable news network to cable news network to try to get out front of the story. For example, for the first time preemptively acknowledging there "may" have been some kind of thus far undisclosed meeting (collusion meeting?) prior to the infamous one in Trump Tower about the "dirt" the Russians had on Hillary.

As a result, here's what I expect to happen in the next few weeks as Trump learns even more about what he is facing. Nothing short of the end of life as he has known it--

In his version of the Saturday Night Massacre, he will fire Jeff Sessions, his deputy Ron Rosnestein, and Robert Mueller himself.

Since he realizes at some point desperate to save himself, in spite of the consequences, he will feel compelled to do this, why wait while more and more of the Manafort case leaks out and as he continues to learn more about what Mueller is about to report? It's like when needing an operation the waiting can be the worst part.

Don't for a minute think this will cause a "constitutional crisis." under normal circumstances it would. But with Trump nothing is normal.

The Democrats will call it a crisis but since they at the moment have no congressional power to do anything more than rant, will run out of gas in less than a week. The networks also will move on. And don't expect more than a handful of Republican senators and representatives to do more than give lip service to the situation. More than anything else, as they face reelection, they are afraid of his base.

In regard to that base, at the rally the other night in Tampa, Trump with intent whipped his supporters into a frenzy against the reporters present to show them and the rest of us their violent potential. It was a scary display of his power.

As upsetting as all this is, it may have its good side--

It assures that in November, in a landslide, Democrats will take control of the House of Representatives and perhaps even the Senate. This will result in early 2019 in Trump's impeachment. Not his conviction in the Senate (60 votes are required), but as a result he will be largely neutered.   

Of course, his dead enders will remain but they are more about bluster than anything resembling perverse courageousness. Thus  don't expect pitchforks and torches. It will be bad enough. But this situation needs to be cauterized. And that will be. We've seen and been through worse.

Trump Tampa Rally