March 27, 2019--Methinks The Attorney General Doth Protest Too Much

In less than one page of William Barr's three-page letter (it is three pages of text and one page of addresses and signatures), he mentions three times that neither Trump nor members of the Trump campaign "conspired or coordinated with the Russian government in its election interference activities."

In the section of the letter, "Russian Interference in the 2016 U.S. Presidential Election," the Attorney General obsessively drives home this conclusion. 

First mention--

"The Special Counsel's investigation did not find that the Trump campaign or anyone associated with it conspired or coordinated with Russia in its efforts to influence the 2016 U.S. presidential election. As the report states: “[T]he investigation did not establish that members of the Trump Campaign conspired or coordinated with the Russian government in its election interference activities.”

Second mention--

"As noted above, the Special Counsel did not find that any U.S. person or Trump campaign official or associate conspired or knowingly coordinated with the IRA in its efforts, although the Special Counsel brought criminal charges against a number of Russian nationals and entities in connection with these activities."

Third mention--

"But as noted above, the Special Counsel did not find that the Trump campaign, or anyone associated with it, conspired or coordinated with the Russian government in these efforts, despite multiple offers from Russian-affiliated individuals to assist the Trump campaign."

And then in the "Obstruction of Justice" section, the AG and his deputy, Ron Rosenstein, again in less than one page, repeat their questionable determination that Trump did not obstruct justice.

In both cases once was clearly not enough. Why might that be?

As with Hamlet's protesting mother the truth lies elsewhere than claimed.

December 20, 2018--Trump's Distractions

If you are wondering why Donald Trump is ordering the removal of all U.S. military forces from Syria, declaring ISIS defeated even those they aren't--up to 30,000 ISIS fighters remain--the answer by now should be familiar: this retreat, which he initiated without consulting Congress or his State Department or Pentagon, is to distract us from the Michael Flynn fiasco and the humiliating collapse of his own private family slush fund, the Donald J. Trump Foundation.

You do have to admit that pulling the Syria withdrawal seemingly out of a hat is impressive in one way--who but Trump has our 2,000 troops on their radar screen ready to be brought home as a distraction from his political troubles. As of 5:00 am this morning on the New York Times webpage it is the lead story. Flynn and the Foundation are buried somewhere. He managed to turn both into one-day stories.

But don't mishear me--Flynn and the Foundation will contribute to bringing him down, especially when we get to see what is redacted in the Flynn charging memo: that he and Flynn openly conspired to play politics and strategic footsie with the Russians. As I have speculated here, Flynn was likely wearing a wire during some of those conversations, including in the Oval Office, and these tapes will turn out to be Trump's smoking gun.

And if you are wondering why Trump seems so adept, so quick in coming up with distractions of the Syria kind I suspect there is a simple explanation for that too--he has a pre-bickered list of them in his jacket pocket which he can pull out at a moments notice. 

(Ever think about why he never buttons his suit jackets? Not because they don't fit any more after he's gained at least 50 pounds since moving into the White House where the vanilla ice cream is available by the bucket, but to allow easy access to the distractions list.)

Investigative reporter that I am, from unnamed sources I have a copy of the list which I will share with you--

DJTRUMP DISTRACTIONS

Withdraw troops from Iraq

Withdraw troops from Afghanistan

Withdraw troops from Honduras

Withdraw troops from Japan

Withdraw troops from South Korea

Withdraw troops from Germany

Withdraw troops from all NATO countries

Withdraw troops from all bases in the United States
Start war with Honduras
Start war with Panama
Start war with Costa Rica
Start war with Mexico
Start war with California

Fire all Internal Revenue Service personnel

Fire all traffic controllers

Fire Ron Rosenstein

Fire Sarah Huckabee Sanders

Fire Kellyanne Conway

Fire Kellyanne's husband

Fire Jeff Sessions

Fire Rex Tillerson

Fire Reince Priebus

Fire Sean Spicer

Fire Jeff Sessions

Throw Sessions under the bus

Trow Spicer under the bus

Throw Kellyanne under the bus

Fire Wolf Blitzer

Fire Rachel Maddow

Fire Mika Brezezzzinzki

Throw Mika Bzezinzkiz under the bus

Throw Don Jr. under the bus

Throw Eric Trump under the bus

Throw Jared Kushner under the bus

Throw Ivanka under the bus

Throw Melania under the bus

Fire Omarosa

Fire Alec Baldwin

Fire Donald Trump

November 6, 2018--Final Predictions

While people are still voting and before there are any results, to distract myself here are a few predictions and speculations--

The numbers in the Senate will remain the same with the GOP continuing to hold a one-seat majority.

Arizona and Texas will flip from Republican to Democratic with Beto O'Rourke emerging as the brightest new Democrat star. By Thursday, no, by tomorrow he will become the frontrunner for the 2020 presidential nomination and two years from now will defeat Mike Pence.

Obviously, this means that Donald Trump, for one reason or another, will not serve out his first term. Early next year he will declare Mission Accomplished and turn the keys to the Oval Office over to Pence.

In the House we will see a real "wave election." Still stung for getting 2016 wrong (no one predicted Trump would win, including Trump himself), pollsters and media pundits are being very conservative this time in analyzing the data and making projections. The consensus going in is that the Democrats will eek out just enough flipped seats (they need 23) to take control. I suspect they will do much better, winning close to 50 currently Republican-held seats.

As it should be, this will be the headline. 

Anticipating this, Trump in recent days has been saying he's been concentrating exclusively on the Senate. There are too many seats in the House for him to pay attention to, he said, and thus he won't be surprised if the Democrats take control of the House. "We'll work it out," he has been saying. 

Since he's all about winning, "losing" the House will be what will motivate him to not run in 2020. Better to declare victory than try to deal with losing.

In early January the Democrats, who will control all House committees, will begin a judicious number of investigations. To launch too many will make it look as if there is in fact a witch hunt going on, that the election to Democrats was all about the opportunity to overturn the 2016 election. 

These congressional investigations, where the Dems will have subpoena power, will focus on Trump's finances. Especially his business dealings with the Russians. The Mueller report, which will be submitted within the month, will cover the same ground, and with both dominating the discourse it will make Trump crazier than anything else that might be revealed about him. In a panic he will fire Attorney General Sessions, Rob Rosenstein, and Mueller himself. 

But this will not impede the House's work. The genie is coming out of the bottle and it will lead to Trump's downfall. Giving up the presidency will not stall this momentum much less end the investigations.

Most important, tomorrow's results will be the beginning of the end of the Trump presidency and will ultimately lead to his own more personal decline because there is so much corruption and criminality waiting to come to light that even he, as nimble as he has been at surviving (his whole life has been about wiggling out of trouble) will not be able to squirm free. After decades, his luck is finally running out.

This is why people today are voting in record numbers: it is to say to him--"Enough."

Unpacking the polling data later this week we will discover that ten percent of his supporters will have either stayed home, not voted because they can't bare to vote for Democrats, or held their noses and pulled the lever for those who opposed Trump.

Republican survivors in Congress who have been among his enablers will begin to abandon ship. All they care about is having power; and with Trump now a liability, they will cut and run. Even Lindsay Graham will be looking for another macho man to suck up to. 

In addition, there is considerable pent-up schadenfreude that needs to and will be expressed. 

My final prediction is that all will begin to turn out for the best, The system will have been shown to work. That's a very big thing.

September 24, 2018--Rosencrantz & Rosenstein Are Dead

Friday afternoon the New York Times, in a bombshell report, revealed that deputy attorney general, Ron Rosenstein, after just two weeks on the job, was so upset by the president's aberrant behavior that he thought seriously about "wearing a wire" to record some off the mayhem. 

He even thought about talking to the vice president and attorney general (his boss) about the possibility of invoking the 25th Amendment, which sets forth the conditions under which a president can be removed from office. Mind you, again, all this after just two weeks on the job.

Not only did Rosenstein contemplate this but he also told work colleagues about his concerns. Hence, the leak to the Times and the revelations.

This may have a devastating affect on the Mueller investigation in that he reports to Rosenstein and could easily wind up being fired by Trump along with the deputy AG, thereby potentially driving a stake in the heart of Mueller's efforts.

From this self-inflicted error, Trump must feel as if he died and went to heaven. 

Just as Trump was reeling from Paul Manafort flipping and the Kavanaugh nomination potentially collapsing he gets handed a get-out-of-jail-free card by his nemesis, Ron Rosenstein.

How stupid is Rosenstein? Let me count a few of the ways--

If he was so upset by what he was witnessing in the Trump White House and needed to talk about it are FBI and Justice Department colleagues the best people to whom to confess? We can only assume that as soon as Rosenstein finished unburdening himself and drifted down the DOJ hall they speed-dialed 1-800-New York Times. They had some story to share!

Doesn't Rosenstein have a wife with whom he could share this? One who would say, "I hear you darling, but one thing--make sure not to talk about any of this in the office. Especially anything about a wire or the 25th Amendment."

I know I'm sounding cynical but Mueller's investigation is as a result more precarious and Republicans now have validation for their conspiracy theories--witch hunt, rigged investigation, Deep State. I wouldn't be surprised to see GOP poll numbers increase for their midterm election candidates.

To be frank, between now and November 6th all I'm interested in is winning. Until then I don't care who's telling the truth or, for that matter, what the truth is. We're in a political life-and-death struggle and everyone has to be persistent, ruthless, and smart.

In other words, behave like Republicans.

August 3, 2018--Trump's Friday Night Massacre

With the Paul Manafort trial under way and with hints that the Mueller investigation may be close to culminating, Trump seems more and more panicked and out of control.

In one of his flood of tweets yesterday he ranted again about Attorney General Jeff Sessions, pressing him to end the "witch hunt" that is "hurting the country." 

Legal scholars say that this public pressure by the president in itself may constitute obstruction of justice. Trump's lawyers are once again frustrated that they are unable to get him to calm down and not do himself even more harm than he has already inflicted through his rash public statements. 

How likely is that? 

From the prosecution at the Manafort trial required via "disclosure" to reveal the evidence they have against him, Trump for the first time is seeing the details of the strong case the government is presenting. The likelihood that Manafort will be convicted or, for Trump more threatening, will flip before the end of the trial (it happens all the time) has him unhinged.

And then, again through discovery and Michael Cohen beginning to reveal the goods he has on Trump and his family, Trump may be getting glimpses of the devastating case about to come crashing down on him. 

Thus his mouthpiece Rudy Giuliani is racing from cable news network to cable news network to try to get out front of the story. For example, for the first time preemptively acknowledging there "may" have been some kind of thus far undisclosed meeting (collusion meeting?) prior to the infamous one in Trump Tower about the "dirt" the Russians had on Hillary.

As a result, here's what I expect to happen in the next few weeks as Trump learns even more about what he is facing. Nothing short of the end of life as he has known it--

In his version of the Saturday Night Massacre, he will fire Jeff Sessions, his deputy Ron Rosnestein, and Robert Mueller himself.

Since he realizes at some point desperate to save himself, in spite of the consequences, he will feel compelled to do this, why wait while more and more of the Manafort case leaks out and as he continues to learn more about what Mueller is about to report? It's like when needing an operation the waiting can be the worst part.

Don't for a minute think this will cause a "constitutional crisis." under normal circumstances it would. But with Trump nothing is normal.

The Democrats will call it a crisis but since they at the moment have no congressional power to do anything more than rant, will run out of gas in less than a week. The networks also will move on. And don't expect more than a handful of Republican senators and representatives to do more than give lip service to the situation. More than anything else, as they face reelection, they are afraid of his base.

In regard to that base, at the rally the other night in Tampa, Trump with intent whipped his supporters into a frenzy against the reporters present to show them and the rest of us their violent potential. It was a scary display of his power.

As upsetting as all this is, it may have its good side--

It assures that in November, in a landslide, Democrats will take control of the House of Representatives and perhaps even the Senate. This will result in early 2019 in Trump's impeachment. Not his conviction in the Senate (60 votes are required), but as a result he will be largely neutered.   

Of course, his dead enders will remain but they are more about bluster than anything resembling perverse courageousness. Thus  don't expect pitchforks and torches. It will be bad enough. But this situation needs to be cauterized. And that will be. We've seen and been through worse.

Trump Tampa Rally

April 20, 2018--Trump's End Game

Many of us have been comforted by the belief that even if Robert Mueller is fired and his report gets squelched, even if President Trump pardons 20 or more people, everyone from son-in-law Jared Kushner to Paul Manafort to Michael Flynn and especially his personal lawyer, Michael Cohen, all or most of them would still be prosecutable by state attorney generals such as New York's Eric Schneiderman for violating state law because presidential pardons pertain only to federal law.

For example, if Cohen secured a home equity loan from a New York bank, claiming it was to renovate his apartment but then used it to buy Stormy Daniel's silence, he might have committed bank fraud and thus could be pursued by Schneiderman.

Well, it may turn out, not so much.

Just two days ago the New York attorney general asked Governor Andrew Cuomo and the state legislature to pass a new law to cover a potential loophole in the current law that might not allow the state to prosecute anyone who had received a blanket federal pardon by a president. That to do so might be a technical form of double jeopardy.  

A quick analysis of how possible it would be to pass such a law suggests it could be quite unlikely. Though the New York Senate has a slim Democratic majority it is hard to believe that it is solid enough to go along with Schneiderman's request.

And so . . . 

In this circumstance, "and so . . ." is not very comforting.

Also on Wednesday, at his press conference in Florida with Japan's prime minister Abe Trump, Trump was asked if he is going to fire deputy attorney general, Ron Rosenstein, or Robert Mueller. His response, "Well, they're still here."

They are, and more germane, so is he. Trump will continue to be here, he is gambling, even as the circle of protection closes in on him.

Here's how that might work--

Of course he pardons everyone in sight who has been investigated, questioned, deposed, or indicted by Mueller's people. That could include pardoning himself  

Then he fires everyone in sight associated with the Justice Department (Rosenstein, Sessions, Mueller) and in the federal southern district in New York City where the Michael Cohen case now resides.

Then all the Trump-associated lawyers move to shut down the possibility of any state attempting to prosecute him or any of his people via state law, claiming that would constitute double jeopardy.

There of course would be a firestorm of outrage. A "constitutional crisis" (whatever that means). All but Fox News and the right-wing crazies on talk radio would seethe, investigate, and run six-inch high banner headlines decrying these step toward a tyrany. And it would be that. A big step in that direction.

Some would see this scenario to be unlikely. Trump would instantly become the most reviled president in history. His ego is such that he wouldn't willingly take on all the abuse that would be heaped upon him. He'd rather take his chances. This could include impeachment, though he wouldn't be convicted. 

Most constitutional lawyers say that sitting presidents can't be criminally indicted. Couple that with the knowledge that the two presidents who have been impeached (Nixon, though he came close, never was) were not convicted and tossed out of office by the Senate. 

Thus, in Trump's mind there is a case to be made for standing pat. For letting things play out. In fact, Bill Clinton became more popular after being impeached. Andrew Johnson is a whole other story.

Trump has already been more fully exposed (almost literally) then any other president. ("Best sex ever!") He perversely seems to thrive on being humiliated. It's the old story of not caring what's said about you as long as they spell your name correctly and keep the spotlight on you.

So, he could be thinking, ride it out. How long will members of Congress go on cable news and rail about him and what he is bringing down upon the country? More than two weeks? I doubt it.

And so there he might continue to sit. Still with Air Force One available to whisk him back and forth to Mar-a-Lago. And he'll continue to be commander in chief, having his hands on all those terrible toys.

I know this is darkly pessimistic. But if any of it is true we have to face it and deal with it.

So here then is the good news--

THIS SCENARIO IS IN OUR HANDS TO RESIST AND OVERCOME.

By voting first in November and then in 2020. 

It really isn't that difficult. We don't need to take up arms. We just need to vote and get everyone we know to do so.

If the Democrats take over the House, investigations and articles of impeachment will follow quickly. If Democrats gain control of the Senate, though there will not be enough of them even with a few courageous Republicans to convict him--that requires a two-thirds vote--but Trump will be effectively neutered. That will get us safely to 2020 when he will be eminently defeatable. As long as we don't get stupid and nominate someone sure to lose. A list of those to follow one day soon. Hint--it includes Bernie and Warren.

Then the rebuilding will begin. Don't forget, we fought a Civil War that tore the country apart. But we survived and emerged stronger than ever.

Eric Schneiderman

April 14, 2108--Wagging the Dogs

I tend not to be conspiratorial minded, but these days I am hard-pressed to maintain this posture.

I mean, is it a coincidence that the military action we are taking against Syria seems to be occurring at the same time as James Comey's book is about to be published?

What better way is there to keep the former FBI director's book off the front page then stumbling into a potential war with Russia?

Is it a coincidence that President Trump was egged-on to take a very tough position on Syria by British Prime Minister Theresa May who is also attempting to keep her collapsing political fortunes off the front pages? 

They both may have personal interest in wagging the dogs of war.

And why, all of a sudden, was former Vice President Dick Cheney's chief of staff, Scooter Libby, pardoned by Donald Trump? Not just, I suspect, as a gesture to the base who feel Scooter was persecuted and prosecuted for political reasons by a former special counsel, Patrick Fitzgerald? Forget for the moment that it was during a Republican administration, during George W. Bush's presidency that he was appointed and that Fitzgerald, like Mueller, is a lifelong Republican. 

And where else besides Fitzgerald have I heard anything recently about a "special counsel"? 

Anyone picking up anything about someone called "Robert Mueller"? What might be happening with him and the person he reports to, Deputy Attorney General Ron Rosenstein?

Also, could it be that the timing of the Libby pardon is an unplanned coming together by chance of these incidents?

Or is Libby's pardon a signal to those already indicted by Mueller that if they hang tough and do not turn on their boss pardons down the line await? Is Paul Manafort paying attention?

Then though I am relieved that initial reports indicate our military strike in Syria was tightly targeted and "moderate" (the way this morning's New York Times described it) is the timing and confluence of activities merely coincidental?

Chance, coincidence are always possibilities; but Trump, who we must agree, if nothing else, has thus far figured out how to live a life in which he many times has "gotten away with murder" (until now a figure of speech) in both his private and professional life may be at it again. 

Things are looking quite bleak for Trump right now, especially the threats to him from Comey's published accusations and the ramped-up investigation of his "personal lawyer," Michael Cohen, that nothing emanating from Trump is likely being left to chance. 

Scooter Libby

April 12, 2018--Watergate History Lesson

Who knows. 

Before I finish drafting this we may be at war with Syria and Russia; Paul Ryan will have a $5.0-million-a-year job with Goldman Sachs; Devin Nunes will be in line to become the new Speaker of the House; Ron Rosenstein, Jeff Sessions, and Robert Mueller will have been fired; the tariffs we and China have been spatting about will have been rolled back or ramped up; Ron Pruitt will be the new Attorney General; and North Korea will have cancelled the anticipated meeting with Donald Trump. 

And, I almost forgot, Michael Cohen will have "flipped" and will become Mueller's latest star witness. No more "taking a bullet" for Trump for Cohen. However, there will be nothing new to report about Stormy Daniels. 

But the day is still young.

In case we still have a country left when I get up from typing, allow me to again remind those younger than I (which is about everyone) how Richard Nixon's Watergate troubles ended.

As the noose was tightening on him the tapes of White House conversations were subpoenaed by special prosecutor Archibald Cox. Nixon resisted releasing them. He ordered Attorney General Eliot Richardson to fire Cox. He refused and was fired. 

Nixon next ordered Deputy Attorney General William Ruckelshaus, second in command at the Department of Justice, to fire Cox. He too refused and, on the evening of October 20, 1973, was fired.

The Saturday Night Massacre was under way.

Third in line was Solicitor General Robert Bork. Nixon ordered him to fire Cox and, after giving it some thought, ever-ambitious Bork agreed to do so. Cox was fired and quickly cleared out his office. But he did speak to the press and in an impassioned statement asked, "Whether ours shall continue to be a government of laws and not men is now for Congress and ultimately the American people to decide."

Nixon next, with Bork's backing, attempted to thwart the appointment of a new special prosecutor, but the courts ruled that the special prosecutor had the power to prosecute the president and also ruled that Cox had been illegally fired. He thus ordered the president to appoint someone to take Cox's place. 

Reluctantly, Nixon then appointed Leon Jaworski, who continued the investigation in a fair and impartial way and ultimately cooperated with the House of Representative's Judiciary Committee which moved to impeach Nixon.

But before the committee could complete its work Nixon, urged to do so by senior Republican members of Congress, on August 9, 1974, resigned the presidency.

Lesson--

Above all be patient. It took 26 months from the time of the Watergate break in to Nixon's resignation. It took 15 months from the time Cox was appointed and Nixon resigned.

Mueller and his team have been at their investigation for only 11 months. I know most of us would like this work to be completed and Trump back in Trump Tower (assuming the fire is out) or the Metropolitan Correctional Center. But none of this will happen quickly.

I have been saying for some time here that it will all come down to November's midterm election. If the Democrats take control of the House, Trump will be publicly investigated (regardless of Mueller's fate) and soon after that impeached. However, he is unlikely to be found guilty by two-thrids of the 100 senators, but his impeachment alone should lead either to a Nixon-like resignation or, if he seeks reelection, defeat at the polls in November 2020.

Which means, beginning now, that we all have to redouble our efforts to elect Democrats this fall.

Archibald Cox