February 21, 2019--Putin

The Mueller investigation is reaching a crescendo. 

The New York Times story that yesterday was widely read and circulated revealed how Trump for more than two years has attempted to cover up and undermine that investigation. In fact it shows how Trump attempted to have Mueller fired, as if that would pull the plug on it. He forgot to recall how when Nixon fired almost everyone during the Saturday Night Massacre it didn't end the Watergate crisis but instead was like adding an accelerant such as gasoline to an already smoldering fire.

For some time I have been arguing here that though Mueller and the Attorney General might be fired, minimally, what Mueller has unearthed will come to light. I feel certain that he or members of his team have copied emerging iterations of their report on a jump drive and, if all else fails, will make sure the public learns what they have uncovered.

All they need to do is make a copy on a thumb drive that would fit easily in a pocket, walk out the door, and call 1 800 New York Times. A version of the same thing Daniel Ellsberg did to circulate the formerly secret and devastating Pentagon Papers.

I also have speculated that as his work begins to wrap up, as an additional strategy to make sure the public and Congress is informed, he will begin to allow the leaking of key findings. To that end, I suspect someone high up in Mueller's operation is the key source for the Times story.

So expect more leaks and ultimately copies of the full report. Bootleg if necessary. 

It is possible that the new Attorney General, Robert Barr, will act honorably, not seeing himself as former acting AG, Matt Whitaker, perceived to be his role--Trump's protector. As he was quoted in the Times, Whitaker was the person designated to "jump on a grenade" for Trump. Which incidentally he did not do when asked to by his president.

And while Mueller is at it, in addition to the 25 Russians and three Russian companies he has already charged with crimes, why not, as Rona wryly suggested yesterday morning, indict Vladimir Putin? Though he would not be extradited to face trial in the United States, it would make quite a statement about how we view the rule of law and, though our president is, we aren't Putin's puppets.

September 26, 2018--Jack: Freaking Out

"Not me. You." Jack was on the line.

"Huh?"

"Freaking out. You must be freaking out because it looks like the president is about to fire a whole lot of folks, starting with that weasel Rosen-Rosen, or whatever his name is."

"To tell you the truth, I am a little. I mean, freaked out about where this might be headed and maybe how Trump will figure out how to get away with murder."

"You mean like the Clintons and Vince Foster?" He laughed at that reference.

"Not a bad one," I said, "I'm impressed you remember that conspiracy theory with all the ones circulating these days."

"I never forget anything," Jack boasted. From what I know about him, though we disagree about pretty much everything, he does have an amazing memory.

"But to tell you the truth," Jack said, "if Trump fires Rosen and replaces him with some flunky who fires Mueller and while he's at it fires Session and half the senior people in the White House, there'll be a lot to be made crazy by. That's why Hannity and the other Fox people are urging him, publicly begging him not to fire Rosenberg."

"The Fox world is one I don't really know my way around in. Half the time when I tune in for a while to see what they're spinning (and the hosts do seem to get the same talking points every day so if you listen to one it's like listening to them all), I don't know what they're talking about. It's like they speak in shorthand or code with their unhinged viewers. So weren't you also surprised that they were pressuring Trump not to fire anyone? I would have thought after Rosenstein was outed by the New York Times, which revealed that early in his history as deputy attorney general he thought about wearing a wire to gather evidence about Trump that could then be used to invoke the 25th Amendment to remove him from office. Wouldn't Fox want Rosenstein out of the picture?"

Jack said, "One could come to that conclusion. Especially if one doesn't get what's going on." [That someone he referred to being me.] "How firing Rosenthal and the rest of them would be a political disaster for Trump. It would be at least as big a nightmare as Nixon's Saturday Night Massacre. There are a few clever Democrats and they are setting an obstruction of justice trap. If Trump fires Rosenthal it will be viewed as his doing so to get him off the case. To stamp out the investigation of Trump, his family, and his American and Russian associates."

"In other words, to obstruct justice?"

"Yup."

"If you're right about this," I said to Jack, "and I think you may be, those Fox people really do have Trump's back."

"Yes and no."

"Because?"

"Because it may be too late."

"Really? I mean, I hope so."

"By now Mueller has tons of evidence from all the Trump people who have flipped, the people they deposed, and of course Mueller has access to all of Trump's and his people's tax and financial records."

"I suspect this is true, but wouldn't pulling the plug on Rosenstein and reining in Mueller put a lid on things? Bury evidence and documents from public view with Trump slipping out of the noose?"

"That wouldn't work," Jack said, "because I suspect a pretty complete Mueller report has already been drafted with him waiting for the best time to drop it. I suspect soon after the midterms. If he's allowed to do that, we'll all see it then. All the ugly details."

"I can only wish that you're right. But . . ."

"Let's say your Rosenman does get fired and an acting DAG is appointed by Trump. Ordinarily it would need the deputy's approval to release the findings and recommendations. Or not. Mueller or whomever follows him reports to the deputy attorney general. The findings go to the new DAG who could decided to squelch them, claiming they're too sensitive or whatever."

"So there you go," I said, end of story."

"As usual you're forgetting two very big things," Jack said, "First there are the midterms. All signs point to a big turnover in the House. If the Dems take over, and I suspect they will, as of January 2nd they'll begin their own investigations and will have the power to subpoena everything Mueller gathered. Probably even calling him as a witness."

"I'm tracking this."

"And then there's one more even bigger thing." He took a deep breath, "I assume you know all about the Pentagon Papers?"

"I do."

"Hundreds, thousands of pages were copied at a time when the only way to do so was to Xerox it page-by-page. Now, in a few minutes the whole friggen Mueller report can be copied onto a thumb drive, put in a jacket pocket, taken home, and plopped in the mail to the New York Times or Washington Post. In other words there's no way to hide it. To keep it from the public. So the Fox people wanted to help Trump from making things even worse for himself." 

He paused to gather himself, "And that's why I'm freaking and why you shouldn't be."

"Of course I hope you're right. Maybe I'll be able to sleep tonight."

"Really, one final thing--with Trump I could be wrong about all of this. He could just as easily fire Rosen-Rosen on Thursday, in part to distract from the Kavanaugh hearings, and get his replacement to . . . ."

Jack broke off and I was left as confused as ever.

Rosen-Rosen

August 3, 2018--Trump's Friday Night Massacre

With the Paul Manafort trial under way and with hints that the Mueller investigation may be close to culminating, Trump seems more and more panicked and out of control.

In one of his flood of tweets yesterday he ranted again about Attorney General Jeff Sessions, pressing him to end the "witch hunt" that is "hurting the country." 

Legal scholars say that this public pressure by the president in itself may constitute obstruction of justice. Trump's lawyers are once again frustrated that they are unable to get him to calm down and not do himself even more harm than he has already inflicted through his rash public statements. 

How likely is that? 

From the prosecution at the Manafort trial required via "disclosure" to reveal the evidence they have against him, Trump for the first time is seeing the details of the strong case the government is presenting. The likelihood that Manafort will be convicted or, for Trump more threatening, will flip before the end of the trial (it happens all the time) has him unhinged.

And then, again through discovery and Michael Cohen beginning to reveal the goods he has on Trump and his family, Trump may be getting glimpses of the devastating case about to come crashing down on him. 

Thus his mouthpiece Rudy Giuliani is racing from cable news network to cable news network to try to get out front of the story. For example, for the first time preemptively acknowledging there "may" have been some kind of thus far undisclosed meeting (collusion meeting?) prior to the infamous one in Trump Tower about the "dirt" the Russians had on Hillary.

As a result, here's what I expect to happen in the next few weeks as Trump learns even more about what he is facing. Nothing short of the end of life as he has known it--

In his version of the Saturday Night Massacre, he will fire Jeff Sessions, his deputy Ron Rosnestein, and Robert Mueller himself.

Since he realizes at some point desperate to save himself, in spite of the consequences, he will feel compelled to do this, why wait while more and more of the Manafort case leaks out and as he continues to learn more about what Mueller is about to report? It's like when needing an operation the waiting can be the worst part.

Don't for a minute think this will cause a "constitutional crisis." under normal circumstances it would. But with Trump nothing is normal.

The Democrats will call it a crisis but since they at the moment have no congressional power to do anything more than rant, will run out of gas in less than a week. The networks also will move on. And don't expect more than a handful of Republican senators and representatives to do more than give lip service to the situation. More than anything else, as they face reelection, they are afraid of his base.

In regard to that base, at the rally the other night in Tampa, Trump with intent whipped his supporters into a frenzy against the reporters present to show them and the rest of us their violent potential. It was a scary display of his power.

As upsetting as all this is, it may have its good side--

It assures that in November, in a landslide, Democrats will take control of the House of Representatives and perhaps even the Senate. This will result in early 2019 in Trump's impeachment. Not his conviction in the Senate (60 votes are required), but as a result he will be largely neutered.   

Of course, his dead enders will remain but they are more about bluster than anything resembling perverse courageousness. Thus  don't expect pitchforks and torches. It will be bad enough. But this situation needs to be cauterized. And that will be. We've seen and been through worse.

Trump Tampa Rally

April 12, 2018--Watergate History Lesson

Who knows. 

Before I finish drafting this we may be at war with Syria and Russia; Paul Ryan will have a $5.0-million-a-year job with Goldman Sachs; Devin Nunes will be in line to become the new Speaker of the House; Ron Rosenstein, Jeff Sessions, and Robert Mueller will have been fired; the tariffs we and China have been spatting about will have been rolled back or ramped up; Ron Pruitt will be the new Attorney General; and North Korea will have cancelled the anticipated meeting with Donald Trump. 

And, I almost forgot, Michael Cohen will have "flipped" and will become Mueller's latest star witness. No more "taking a bullet" for Trump for Cohen. However, there will be nothing new to report about Stormy Daniels. 

But the day is still young.

In case we still have a country left when I get up from typing, allow me to again remind those younger than I (which is about everyone) how Richard Nixon's Watergate troubles ended.

As the noose was tightening on him the tapes of White House conversations were subpoenaed by special prosecutor Archibald Cox. Nixon resisted releasing them. He ordered Attorney General Eliot Richardson to fire Cox. He refused and was fired. 

Nixon next ordered Deputy Attorney General William Ruckelshaus, second in command at the Department of Justice, to fire Cox. He too refused and, on the evening of October 20, 1973, was fired.

The Saturday Night Massacre was under way.

Third in line was Solicitor General Robert Bork. Nixon ordered him to fire Cox and, after giving it some thought, ever-ambitious Bork agreed to do so. Cox was fired and quickly cleared out his office. But he did speak to the press and in an impassioned statement asked, "Whether ours shall continue to be a government of laws and not men is now for Congress and ultimately the American people to decide."

Nixon next, with Bork's backing, attempted to thwart the appointment of a new special prosecutor, but the courts ruled that the special prosecutor had the power to prosecute the president and also ruled that Cox had been illegally fired. He thus ordered the president to appoint someone to take Cox's place. 

Reluctantly, Nixon then appointed Leon Jaworski, who continued the investigation in a fair and impartial way and ultimately cooperated with the House of Representative's Judiciary Committee which moved to impeach Nixon.

But before the committee could complete its work Nixon, urged to do so by senior Republican members of Congress, on August 9, 1974, resigned the presidency.

Lesson--

Above all be patient. It took 26 months from the time of the Watergate break in to Nixon's resignation. It took 15 months from the time Cox was appointed and Nixon resigned.

Mueller and his team have been at their investigation for only 11 months. I know most of us would like this work to be completed and Trump back in Trump Tower (assuming the fire is out) or the Metropolitan Correctional Center. But none of this will happen quickly.

I have been saying for some time here that it will all come down to November's midterm election. If the Democrats take control of the House, Trump will be publicly investigated (regardless of Mueller's fate) and soon after that impeached. However, he is unlikely to be found guilty by two-thrids of the 100 senators, but his impeachment alone should lead either to a Nixon-like resignation or, if he seeks reelection, defeat at the polls in November 2020.

Which means, beginning now, that we all have to redouble our efforts to elect Democrats this fall.

Archibald Cox

February 6, 2018--The Nothing-Burger

With the release of Congressman Devin Nunes's pathetic three-and-a-half-page memo about the investigation of Russia's role in our 2016 presidential election, the fact that it is widely considered to be a nothingburger, for Donald Trump it makes matters worse. Much worse.

If it had been a something-burger, a full, well argued and sourced document that called the integrity of the investigation into question, if it provided incontrovertible evidence that the FBI and the Department of Justice were conspiring to remove Trump from office, Trump would not have to lie, claiming, as he did, that it "totally vindicates" him--the evidence for that would speak for itself--he could take a few leisurely victory laps to show the electorate that all along he has been telling the truth while the government has been concocting a case against him, his family, and his inner circle.

He wouldn't need to fire anyone. Even Robert Mueller would have been exposed as corrupt and possibly indictable and would have no choice but to resign in disgrace. 

Trump would not have to pardon anyone--there would be no one to pardon--nor would he be forced to testify. What would there be to question him about? And with Mueller out of the way, no one to do it.

But the fact that the Nunes memo is acknowledged by many to be a "dud," from Trump's perspective it changes everything.

Every hour that goes by, the serious media and the Democrats are chipping away at the memo, exposing more and more of its untruths and intentional omissions. Even a few Republicans have raised questions about its validity.

For example, the person the Trump people have been comfortable having as the fall guy, goofball Carter Page, according to Nunes, turns out to be a bit player in comparison to George Papadopoulos, who, by turning state's evidence, threatens to bring about the Fall of the House of Trump.

Thus, there will be no victory lap for Trump. In fact, Mueller seems to be increasing the pace of his staff's work to get as much done as possible before Trump tries to pull the plug on the investigation.

The shabbiness of the Nunes memo will also put Trump in higher gear. If it doesn't in fact exonerate him, what is he left with to do?

With the clock running out he may accelerate the firing of Rosenstein and Mueller as well as pardon all close to him who are in danger of being indicted. 

This would be the Saturday Night Massacre times ten. 

But with Republicans in the House of Representatives, very much including the now unmasked sycophantic Speaker, Paul Ryan, rolling over for Trump, all the Democrats will see themselves able to do is express outrage, jump up and down, go on MSNBC, and hope to take control of the House of Representatives in November.

What might the public do? Envision mass marches on both sides with some ugly clashes. Shades of the anti-war demonstrations and counter-demonstrations of the 60s and 70s.

The saddest thing is that no matter what Trump might do, he will still have his 35 percent of unquestioning supporters and the whole thing could turn out to be at most a two-week story.

But then again, and this is the scenario I am betting on, Ryan may emerge from his bubble and see his reputation collapsing. If that happens, he will begin to distance himself from Trump--fearing he will lose his speakership in November--which would  make it acceptable for enough Republicans in the House to join with Democrats to act like patriots and not the historical disgraces they currently are. 

There are already a few signs of this, including the fact that yesterday all GOP members of the House Intelligence Committee (what a misnomer) voted to release the Democratic rebuttal to the Munes memo. And with the stock market in danger of crashing that in itself will give the lie to Trump's claim that because of him there is a thriving economy. Remember, it still is the economy, stupid.

January 25, 2018--Mueller's "Whitewash"

I have a Facebook friend who has been consistently pessimistic about everything involving Donald Trump and the fate of the world. Among other things he expects to see nuclear war with North Korea breaking out this year.

He is very angry and may be right on all counts as he is smart, successful, and well informed.

Here's a recent, slightly edited example from his postings--

I'm now worried that Mueller is going to do a whitewash. I cannot understand why he hasn't brought in Trump's lying son or Kushner and his wife. At first I thought it was because he knew if he did Trump would fire him. But now I don't know. They all need to go to jail if not for lying than for money laundering and tax evasion. They must be deterred from ever seeking public office. I'm worried.

Thinking about this and the list of witnesses Mueller has interviewed and is planning to seek testimony from, it is curious that the Kusners and Trump's sons are not on the list. Trump himself, though, clearly appears to be.

Traditionally with investigations and prosecutions of this kind, where there may be collusion, obstruction of justice, and conspiratorial behavior, prosecutors work their way up the witness food chain. From, in this case, the likes of George (Coffee Boy) Papadopoulos to Paul Manafort to Michael Flynn to Jeff Sessions to Steve Bannon and then on to members of Trump's inner-inner circle, including ultimately the president and his potentially implicatable family members.

So what is Mueller's logic of seemingly not seeking testimony from Trump's sons, daughter, and beloved son-in-law?

I've been struggling to make sense of these curious omissions and have finally come to what I now see to be very clever. This should have been apparent to me sooner as Mueller is nothing if not clever.

The special counsel is intentionally not planning to include the children in his investigation and thus will not charge them in his ultimate findings.

Keeping his eye on the big picture--Donald Trump and what he did that is potentially indictable or impeachable in order to cleanse the system, Mueller does not want to incite Trump even more than he is fulminating at present.

Mueller suspects that if he moves against any of the children, Trump will go off the rails and immediately pardon them, disband Mueller's team, and fire Attorney General Sessions and Mueller himself, precipitating a constitutional crises that will make Watergate look no more troubling than a parking ticket.

As a backup to a version of likely mass firings reminiscent of the Watergate Saturday Night Massacre, in addition, the main thing from a Mueller perspective, is to get enough work completed, enough evidence double and triple checked, enough of the mosaic of evidence pulled together into a coherent and convincing narrative, and to insure enough channels are in place to leak all of this to the public and Congress if it hits the fan before he completes his work. 

Mueller wants to make it certain that Americans get the full report of his findings. To, if necessary, leak them so no matter what Trump does to him and his staff, the truth will out.

The bottom line for the investigation and for us is what Trump knew and then did. If our democracy is to survive we need to know the peril in which we have been so that we can recover what has already been lost. Everything Mueller does should be viewed in this critical light.

May 10, 2017--Firing James Comey

Many are saying that Donald Trump's firing of FBI director James Comey smacks of Watergate. We had the Saturday Night Massacre then and the Tuesday Night Massacre last night.

This comparison doesn't sound like a stretch to me. 

In fact, back on March 21st I posted a blog about where they would lead if one were to connect all the dots about how Trump's men were directly involved in the Russian hacking of the presidential election and how this subversion of our election is much, much worse than Watergate.

Anyone wondering why Trump fired Comey, claiming that he did so because of how Comey failed to indict Hillary Clinton, is capable of believing most anything. The truth is much simpler than that. And chilling. 

So below is my posting from March.

Here's what happened and it's pretty obvious.

Admittedly this is speculation but since it explains most of Donald Trump's behavior regarding Russia's tampering in our election, let me air it out--

Last spring when it was obvious Donald Trump would win the nomination and then that summer, after securing it, one or more members of Trump's entourage with on-going Russian connections (fierce supporter General Michael Flynn and/or campaign chairman Paul Manafort) told candidate Trump that their Russian connections, or handlers, indicated that they had the capacity to hack into Hillary Clinton's campaign and in that way dig up enough dirt to help the underdog, Donald Trump, win the election.

As someone who loves winning above all else, Trump with a nod and a wink gave them the go-ahead.

The rest of the election is history.

All the while, the FBI or NSA, as part of their routine work, were tapping into the Russian ambassador's and other Russian officials' electronic communications.

In the process, they stumbled on Flynn's and Manafort's machinations and began a deeper investigation into their work with Russia, including their involvement in the Clinton sabotage effort.

So here's the big problem--

If a version of this is true, the connected dots lead directly back to Donald J.Trump.

Trump of course knows the full extent of this, especially his own direct involvement, and thus the frantic attempt to divert attention from this festering situation and out of desperation turn the heat on his predecessor, Barack Obama, accusing him of "wiretapping" Trump Tower.

Here's how this will unfold--

Flynn or Manafort, eventually facing 20 years in prison, will make a James McCord, Watergate-like deal with the prosecutors and throw President Trump under the bus.

That is unless Trump has already been pardoned by his successor, President Mike Pence.

Left to Right--Manafort, Trump, Flynn

January 31, 2017--Trump's Band of Amateurs

Much of Donald Trump's appeal has been his swaggering claim that because of his experience as a successful businessman he is not some over-experienced, incompetent government type.

The latter, by definition, are incompetent. Look at the mess professional politicians have made. It's time to turn government, whatever small part of it we will leave intact, over to people who know how to get things done. Like build a casino. We'll take our business acumen and apply it to the simple matter of running the government.

Thus, all the generals and CEO types Trump has selected to join him in running USA, Inc.

But so far, just 10 days into his presidency, Trump has already demonstrated that his boys don't in fact know how to get the job done.

Case in point this past weekend is the roll out of the new ban on Muslims from seven Middle Eastern countries. Including Iraq where people who risked their lives to help us fight ISIS are being turned back as they try to come to America.

The Trump immigration roll out was as bungled as the mocked Obama launch of Obamacare.

In Trump's case the immigration-ban mess is a result of intentional choices--rather than recruit and hire a few key staffers who know how things work at the senior executive level he selected the under-experienced Steven Bannon (now frighteningly a member of the National Security Council) and Stephen Miller to be in charge of White House policy.

Together they hatched this plan, opted not to consult with anyone in the Pentagon or Department of Homeland Security, so that Trump could sign the executive order with a ceremonial flourish, believing that all that was required to successfully implement this xenophobic and likely illegal policy was a stroke of the presidential pen.

Trump ran against elites of all kinds but primarily those in the media and government. There is a lot to find fault with in both places, but a certain amount of experience and, more important, competency counts when you want to get big things done in a complex and contested political environment. The Oval Office is not the set for The Apprentice or the Trump Organization.

Even incoming presidents such as Ronald Reagan who famously proclaimed government not the solution to problems but rather the cause of them, stocked his cabinet and the White House with solid citizens who knew how things work when dealing with Congress and the press.

This time around we have Bannon and Miller, neither one of whom has a clue about how things are accomplished in Washington. They clearly do not know that Reagan needed Tip O'Neill as a partner. Or that Bill Clinton had Newt Gingrich.

And, so it appears, neither does Trump who is now bumbling his way through the mess he and his amateur staff devised, including late last night firing his acting attorney general, evocative of Richard Nixon's Saturday Night Massacre

In fact, Trump's response has been so inept that he managed to make things worse. Now at least half the world hates us. All the product of a week's work.

As a result, he is quickly losing control of the agenda and has fewer and fewer Washington friends who he will need if he is to have a successful legislative agenda.

Which, in the end, may be a good things. The less of his agenda the better.

Stephen Miller (left) and Steven Bannon