November 18, 2019--Big Stuff

"He only cares about the big stuff. He doesn't give a shit about Ukraine."

Last week so said Gordon Sondland, Trump's million-dollar, pay-for-play ambassador to the EU who was having a gay old time galavanting around Europe on the taxpayers' dime until he realized that his casual testimony before the House impeachment committee was likely perjury and if it was proven to be so might land him in the slammer for a decade or more. 

Not exactly his retirement plan. He had been thinking that if he flattered Trump enough and served as his all-purpose butt boy he, rather than Rudy, would wind up Trump's second-term secretary of state.

Forget that. Now for him, with what happened to Roger Stone vividly in mind, it's all about saving his own skin. So expect him to spill the beans as he amends his testimony for a third time later this week. I expect him to throw Trump under the bus before Trump does this unto him. 

So, forget the million he contributed to the Trump inauguration. He'll never miss it. It will be worth it in the stories he'll have available to share with his West Palm Beach drinking buddies.

Also, expect soon to hear from John Bolton and of course private attorney Rudy. Bolton has already begun to open up and it is reliably reported that America's Mayor is under criminal investigation and likely will want to cut a deal. That will require him to turn on Trump.

Speaking of Rudy, I've been thinking about his serving Trump pro bono. For someone totally obsessed with power and money--especially the latter--what's it about that he's not charging for his work for Trump?

The answer leads to Ukraine. It also explains why Trump has been so devoted to destroying the reputation of our former Ukraine ambassador, Marie Vovanovitch, and why he has been so obsessed with undermining the reformist administration of President Volodymyr Zelensky before it can even get launched.

Ambassador Sondland is wrong--Trump does give a shit about Ukraine because it is a place where Trump feels he can off load the evidence that he and the Russians colluded to fix the 2016 election and pin the blame on Ukraine. This would please Putin and allow Trump to remove the sanctions imposed on him while simultaneously assuring that corruption is encouraged in Ukraine because from Paul Manafort's and Rudy's examples he is aware that a corrupt Ukraine is an ideal place to make, steal, and launder big money. 

This suggests that big money is the "big stuff" ambassador Sondland had in mind.

September 30, 2019--Ukraine Fall Out

We should stay focused on the House of Representatives' move toward the impeachment of Donald Trump. That is obviously the most important and promising news of the last two, three years.

But also of consequence is the effect it will have on the 2020 election. Concern that it could tip things in Trump's direction was the primary reason Nancy Pelosi was so reluctant to proceed. She remembered how Bill Clinton's approval rating went up while his impeachment unfolded.

So what should we expect?

Unlike Trump, Clinton was in his second term and the economy was booming. Not as currently primarily for wealthy people. So, I am not expecting to see Trump's number rise. In fact, in just the one week since Ukraine Gate was exposed they appear to be plummeting.

Expect then to see Trump take a political hit. Enough, perhaps, to upend his reelection chances.

What then about the Democrats?

I am anticipating that as we get deeper into all that was going on between Ukrainian officials and oligarchs and Trump, his children Giuliani, Paul Manafort (remember him?), and many others there will be much more fall out. Ukraine, after all, is primarily a place known as a money laundry.

Fairly or not, therefore, expect to see Joe Biden driven from the race.

Again, fairly or not expect to see his son Hunter Biden dragged deeper into the mess. Does anyone believe that if his last name wasn't Biden he would have been invited to serve on the board of Burma Holdings, a Ukrainian natural gas producer?

He served on that board from 2014 to 2019, which happens to be among the same years that his father was Barack Obama's Vice President. That didn't hurt his employment prospects.

We know that Trump will hammer away at this. Who could expect him not too. It is teed up for him.

And so Joe Biden will have to leave the race because Democratic voters really do care about draining the swamp. And to make the case that Trump made the swap swampier, Biden needs to not be our nominee. He is already being characterized as part of the problem. By Democratic activists. And as a result he has little chance of being nominated. 

By remaining in the race he will only further sully his reputation.

The main political beneficiary? That's easy--Elizabeth Warren.

March 19, 2019--Two Predictions

For the Democratic presidential nomination I predict it will come down to three finalists--

In third place, Kamala Harris; the runner up will be Bernie Sanders; and the winner--Joe Biden (assuming he cuts out the rapidly wearing-thin coy act and gets in the race).

Biden will select Harris to be his running mate and they will go on to defeat Trump or Mike Pence.

Can we vote now?

Second prediction--

The Mueller report is about to land and, as a courtesy, the special counsel informed Trump's attorneys that he and members of his family are about to be indicted. Trump as an un-indicted co-conspirator.

The FBI will not break into Eric's, Don Junior's, or Jared's homes because as big-game hunters the sons' places are likely armed to the teeth with elephant guns. They will thus be invited to turn themselves in by the end of the month.

So Trump will be faced with pressure to pardon them and perhaps Paul Manafort and others while he's at it. To obviate this, we will learn that Mueller has referred their cases and turned over the evidence he has amassed to the pardon-proof prosecutors of the New-York-City-based Court of the Southern District of New York.

These impending arrests have Trump crazed, off his pins, and thus he has been launching a record number of vitriolic tweets, including two this weekend again about John McCain and five about suspended Fox News personality, Janine Piro. In total, a clinically-concerning 50. 

Further evidence of his desperation is the fact that he and Melania went to church last Sunday.

If there is a just God, that will not help.

March 8, 2019--Trumpian Justice

Paul Manafort yesterday evening was sentenced to just 47 months in prison. Not 47 years. Or, following the sentencing guidelines, not the 19 to 24 years many former prosecutors and defense attorneys were calling for.

What happened? A "mere" 47 months for Manafort, found guilty of eight significant felonies?

Rich, white-man justice is part of the answer.

As a CNN commentator said, almost stunned to silence, if an 18-year-old black kid broke into someone's apartment and stole a TV, he would likely have been sentenced to more time. Much more.

If this is part of the answer, the other part, even more disturbing is that Manafort is the first person to be the beneficiary of Trumpian justice. 

Trumpian justice was first articulated by Trump himself when he said that even if he shot and killed someone on Fifth Avenue, he would not be convicted of a crime.

Manafort's trial results and sentencing are less dramatic examples.

First, he was the beneficiary of Trump jury nullification. 

In Alexandria, VA he was tried for 18 counts but convicted of only eight. The other 10 were hung because one juror held out for a non-guilty verdict. Jurors interviewed after the trial ended said that the holdout was an immovable Trump supporter and only agreed to guilty findings on eight of the lesser charges in order to end the impasse and be allowed to go home.

This Trump-supporting juror must have been encouraged by the many things the presiding judge, T.S. Ellis III, said to the jury during pretrial motions and during the trial itself. On a daily basis he berated the prosecutors and even before the first witness was called declared that the only reason the Mueller team of prosecutors was pressing the case was because they wanted to force Manafort to flip in his support of Trump.

And then yesterday, during sentencing, he proclaimed that Manafort, in addition to what he might or might not have done to bring him before Ellis's court "led an otherwise blameless life."

He must not have been paying attention during the trial. Or, and this is the scary part, the judge too may be a Trumpian, which means that anything associated with Trump by definition is either not criminal nor if anyone associated with Trump is convicted of a felony he will receive a low-ball sentence. 

The judge did all he could to avoid a guilty verdict but when the jury ignored him and found Manafort guilty Ellis gave him a version of a slap-on-the-wrist.

This sentencing will likely be extended when Manafort next week is sentenced by another judge after pleading guilty to additional felonies, but what we saw with Ellis is chilling and does not bode well for the future when there will likely be more Trump-related prosecutions presided over by other closeted Trumpians lurking in the crevices of the judicial system.

February 19, 2019--Master of Distraction

Being the master of distraction can cut two ways. With Trump, adept at this dubious art, it does and then some.

Take the National Emergency.

Trump was on the ropes. The Democrats in Congress (read Nancy Pelosi) were dug in. They were not going to give him even "one dollar" for his Wall. If he didn't agree to compromise (read "fold") the government would come to a halt and as with the December shutdown, Trump would lose politically and again see his poll numbers tank. They were heading then to the low 30s, pretty much for him a potential 2020 electoral disaster. 

The media covered this wall-to-wall. Even Trump's enablers on Fox News and talk radio (read Laura Ingraham and Rush Limbaugh) were restive and cranky, with Ann Coulter, hitting him literally below the belt, when she called him a "weenie."

So Trump rolled out his thus far most ambitious distraction--he made up and then declared a national emergency, knowing, but not really caring, that it will take forever to get through the courts and ultimately wind up with the Supremes who will likely declare it unconstitutional. Even Clarence Thomas might see things that way. Actually, ignore that--there is no way that he will. But expect Roberts to assure that minimally it will be a 5-4 decision.

In truth, for Trump, the more time it takes to work its way through the judicial system, the more we will be taking about nothing but,  which is his hope. It's about distraction and that's the definition of distraction--talking about something else.

As we saw on Friday the media immediately switched from obsessing about the battle Trump was having with Congress and began talking about only the emergency. To help them and to fill time they rolled out professors of constitutional law, former federal prosecutors, and Pulitzer Prize winning columnists. 

I said to Rona, if this keeps up for another two weeks I'm going to learn so much about the law that I'll be prepared to take the Bar Exam.

But there were a couple of sub-headlines buried on page 16 that ground on relentlessly. Stories that were not about the constitutional crisis but rather about Robert Mueller's investigation. 

At about the same time Trump was holding his rambling, sing-song news conference in the Rose Garden where all the questions were about the "emergency," Mueller prosecutors were in court calling for the presiding judge to sentence Trump's former campaign manager, Paul Manafort, to 24 years in prison. Effectively a life sentence for the 69 year-old Manafort. 

So expect that we will soon be back to paying 24/7 attention to Trump's legal troubles. Troubles exacerbated ironically by his use of the national emergency distraction because even some Republicans feel Trump by declaring it abused his power. Which is an impeachable offense. It was one of the charges against Nixon.

Thus, the default on all of this is the Mueller investigation. It is not going away. It is ultimately distraction proof.

For example, it is reported that Manafort is already singing like a canary and Roger Stone may be the next to flip.

January 18, 2019--Next Under the Bus

Two nights ago, on CNN, Rudy Giuliani unleashed another drunken rant. As with previous ones, embedded in the incoherent parts was genuine news. 

This time it was back to the persistent subject of collusion, Trump's default bête noire. It appears to be the one thing that always gives him grief.

Running out of cards to play, collusion is a clever thing for Trump to obsess about because (1) it is not a crime, and (2) it keeps folks from focusing on conspiracy, which is related to collusion but is a crime. A serious one.

Wednesday night Rudy took Trump one step further down the path to impeachment. And with BuzzFeed's overnight report that Trump instructed Michael Cohen to lie to Congress about plans for a Trump condo in Moscow, things are looking precarious for the president.

"I never said that there was no collusion," Rudy in effect said, "In fact, I wouldn't be surprised if there was collusion. I've said that before [lie] and I said if there was the president wasn't involved in it [lie]. About senior campaign staff? That I couldn't say. [lie]"

There's a pattern here, which I suspect will play out again next week when Mueller likely moves to reveal more of his findings. The pattern is that every time Rudy reveals something new shortly thereafter the Mueller team takes some serious action. Rudy serves as a kind of harbinger.

This may be because as a courtesy and possible requirement that prosecutors through the discovery process share their allegations and exhibits with the defense, Rudy in that way earlier this week may have gained a preview of what is to come--perhaps even that Trump himself did in fact collude with the Russians or, minimally, knew that senior members of his campaign staff did. Thus, the need to distract, obfuscate, and blame others.

In regard to who those others might turn out to be take note of the "senior staff" reference because they are the ones who Trump will attempt to blame. In other words, throw under the bus to save his own skin.

Like me are you thinking these senior campaign staff may include Paul Manafort (who was campaign manager for months), son-in-law Jared Kushner, and oldest son, Don Junior? If not them, who else?

If I had been a senior member of the Trump campaign staff at about now I'd be taking to drink. Or thinking about a pardon. We may be getting close to pardon time.

November 29, 2018--Triple Agent Paul Manafort

Paul Manafort may be all the bad things he has pled guilty to and even worse all that juries have found him guilty of, but though he may not be the shiniest penny, in regard to things important to him (money and power, especially money) he may actually be brilliant.

For someone so seemingly unimpressive he somehow managed to amass millions--tens or hundreds of millions--mainly by finding ways to be of serious service to some of the world's sleaziest operatives in some of the most complicated and corrupt regions of the world. Especially in parts of the former Soviet Union, more specifically, primarily in Ukraine.

He also managed for a while to put on a glittering show of opulent living, with houses and apartments in Manhattan (including in Trump Tower), East Hampton, and Brooklyn as well as his reputed million-dollar bespoke sharkskin wardrobe.

But now we see him being wheeled in and out of courtrooms, looking pathetic in an orange prison jumpsuit, seemingly brought low. But who knows, considering his slimy skills, he may be hatching a way to fool almost everyone and manage to walk away largely unscathed.

This could be because, after working in Eastern Europe where nothing it was it seems and there is someone scheming to cut you down at every turn, he has so mastered the art of subterfuge that he may have found a way to work for the Russians (Putin) and Trump while pretending to be working for Robert Mueller. 

In other words he may have figured out how to operate as a triple agent, playing these three sides against each other. 

And through one of the seams that connect these pieces Manafort may find a way to slither out to some version of freedom.

Working with the Russians, Manafort has more goods on Trump to market that are essential puzzle pieces that fit with the covert material the Russians already have on Trump--remember that dossier and what it allegedly contains about Trump's escapades with, among other transgressions, prostitutes in Moscow. If Manafort working as a secret agent for the Russians is true, think of the resulting additional leverage they have on Trump. It helps explain Trump's wimpy behavior when it comes to anything Putin.

Working concurrently for Trump as his campaign manager (my favorite part--for free) he managed to keep the Trump-Russia collusion going while on the surface doing all the basic gofer things campaign managers routinely do like getting a platform written that everyone can agree to and ultimately ignore.

And then, with Robert Mueller, the very smartest of his handlers, Manafort seemingly turned the tables on Trump to become a valuable resource to the special counsel and his investigators. In that role, other than Trump's boys who know all the family felonies, by ratting on Trump and his inner-inner circle, Manafort could help Mueller connect all the illegal dots while auditioning for the part of star witness before grand juries, congressional committees, and eventual impeachment hearings and criminal trials. For these services Manafort could expect to be rewarded by not having to do any jail time and might even wind up with his own show on Fox News.

That seemed to be where things were headed until a few days ago when Manafort was discovered to have been lying to Mueller's team. As a result Mueller puled the plug on Manafort, leaving the investigation bereft of anyone who could testify with direct knowledge about the BIG picture.

Furthermore, in his role as a secret agent mole within the Mueller operation, a few days ago we learned from Trump's lawyers that Manafort's lawyers have been colluding with them, leaking to Trump's people inside information about the workings and strategies of the Mueller probe. 

When it comes to Manafort so much is complicated and seemingly self-inflicted. 

So much so that most of the print and cable legal analysts are left scratching their heads, frustrated that they can't seem to make sense of Manafort's recent moves--lying to Mueller and his people after making a sweet deal to get a reduced sentence by cooperating truthfully. Apparently  as a result of lying to Mueller, Manafort seems to be facing at least a decade of hard jail time.

It could turn out that Manafort blew it. But it may mean he will be pardoned with gratitude by Trump for undercutting arch-villain Mueller (he will be pardoned in a matter of just weeks) and figure out a way to skulk back to Ukraine where he can live out the rest of his natural life in whatever splendor Ukraine has to offer. This assumes, of course, that he will find a way to keep from getting killed by a Putin hit squad.

In Manafort's line of work, you win some and you lose some.

November 27, 2018--South of the Border

Silly me, all along I thought Trump would wag the dog when Robert Mueller's findings were about to be published by bombing nuclear installations in North Korea or Iran. To distract from the main Mueller takeaway--the indictments of half the Trump family--he would start a war either place and watch his approval ratings soar. 

Don't they always when a president shows muscle? Like Lyndon Johnson and Richard Nixon did in the early days in Vietnam, Ronald Reagan did in Grenada, as George H. W. Bush did in Panama and Iraq, as Bill Clinton did in Bosnia, and George W. Bush did in Afghanistan and again in Iraq. Approval numbers in all instances went off the charts. 

But then (is there a lesson here?) in almost all cases the numbers came crashing back to earth. In fact so low for LBJ and Nixon that for this and other reasons they both wound up having to resign the presidency. (Lesson here as well?)

But now I think Trump's first (note that--first) wag situation will not be with Iran or North Korea but along the 1,900 mile border with Mexico.

With our border patrol people already using teargas and rubber bullets à la Israel to contain asylum seekers and Trump authorizing the use of "lethal force" if they or the military he has deployed to the area have rocks thrown at them, the visuals are already so intoxicating to the cable-news-addicted president that how can he be expected to resist a wider, more telegenic little war? And of course not have to worry that these fleeing Guatemalans might lob nukes on San Francisco or Trump Tower in New York City.

While all this excitement is going on who will care about the beans spilt by former campaign manager Paul Manafort or former fixer Michael Cohen? Who will notice that Trump pardons Don Junior, son-in-law Jared, and Ivanka? Who will pay attention to the legal spatting about the constitutionality of subpoenaing or indicting a sitting president?

After running this riff by Rona, she said, "A little snarky, don't you think?"

"Maybe a little," I said, "But this is serious."

"And for something this serious you think snark is the right tone? Thousands in the caravans are suffering and back in their home countries there are millions more being preyed upon by violent gangs, collapsed economies, and governmental corruption."

"So what are we supposed to do? Open our borders and let anyone in who wants to work and live here? I agree the situation is serious but what are we realistically supposed to think much less do? I get the demagoguery and the rhetoric, how Trump is playing with these people's lives for his own political purposes. To feed his base of terrified haters. If you were president what would you do?"

"It is very complicated," Rona said, "Look at what happened to poor Hillary the other day. When she said in an interview in The Guardian that 'Europe needs to get a handle on migration because that is what lit the flame' of nationalism in England, Western Europe, and with Trump the U.S. too. She got beat up, most claimed, for not getting off the stage and letting the next generation of Democrats move into the spotlight. But I think she was castigated because she told the truth. The truth that American liberals don't want to deal with because they fear it will alienate some members of their own base--those who want more open borders and a permissive approach to immigration."

"What we need," I said, "Is a whole new immigration policy. It needs to be humanitarian and efficient but also has to place limits on who we can admit to the country and need for our economy. That's the hard part."

"We can and should talk more about this because I can't figure out what I would like to see. But in the meantime I agree with you about Trump. You can safely bet your last two dollars that he's hoping for some significant violence along the border to justify a more and more aggressive response by our security forces. Sort of like how Lyndon Johnson jumped on a supposed incident in the Gulf of Tonkin off North Vietnam to justify a major ramping up of our commitment to defeat the Vietcong. My guess is that Trump is looking for his Gulf of Tonkin opportunity to take the focus off Mueller."

"In the meantime," I said, "Back to the snark."

November 20, 2018--Jack's Take

"I know, you think I've been ignoring you"--that had occurred to me--"Well, I have been. Since Election Day." Jack was on the line. 

"How," Jack said. "did Obama put it after the 2010 midterms? That he and the Democrats took a 'shellacking'? Well, that just happened to us. Republicans in general and Trump and his people specifically. As he put it, it was as if he was on the ballot. Which is true. He made the election all about him and try as he might to spin what happened as a big win it was a disaster."

"I agree with this but frankly I'm surprised you are feeling this way. You prided yourself for having been the first person in town to put out Trump lawn signs. And the first person I know who very early on--when he seemed like a joke--to have predicted that not only would Trump win the nomination but also that he would win the election."

"Well let me then be the first Trump person you know to predict that if he runs for reelection (and that is not a certainty) he will lose. Except for two things."

"What pray tell are those?"

"Number one, if you guys nominate Bernie or, number two, you nominate Warren. Two losers. Even a weakened Trump would easily beat either one of them. They're going to win Pennsylvania or Ohio or Michigan or Florida or Wisconsin? States that the ultimate winner needs to carry? Get real. This is not going to happen with a candidate who will be almost 80 in 2020, who's from Brooklyn originally and now from Vermont, a socialist no less? Or a Harvard professor who's from Massachusetts? From my perspective it should only happen."

"I don't entirely disagree with you," I said, "The Dems this time around were really smart about who they ran for Congress. Military veterans, some in the right places who are social conservatives, a few deficit hawks, some who go to church regularly, and others who support the Second Amendment. Up in Maine one of the Democrats running for the House--and who won, Jared Golden--ran a whole bunch of commercials that included video of him on a rifle range."

"Yeah, they ran a lot of Republicans who pretended to be Democrats."

"Not true," I said, "the people I am talking about are mainly Democratic moderates and they appealed to a lot of people who in the past were called 'Reagan Democrats' because for decades they had voted the straight Democratic ticket but switched to vote for Reagan after the Democrats began to run candidates who were too elitist, too liberal, too out of touch with average people. Like Michael Dukakis."

I continued, "But what about the Mueller investigation? What happens if he issues a report that exposes all sorts of criminal activity carried out by Trump and his family?"

"That would be the best thing that could happen to us."

"What?" I was incredulous, "It's only 10:30 in the morning but have you been drinking?"

"No, and I'm taking my meds." He chuckled, sounding like the old swaggering Jack.

"I'm glad to hear that, but deal with the issue--what will happen when Mueller exposes all sorts of crimes--big ones--backed up with  emails and recordings of cell phone calls and the corroborating testimony of Michael Cohen, Paul Manafort, and a half dozen others? I fail to see how that could that be good news from your perspective."

"Look, it's obvious that all Republican in Congress and the right-wing media are terrified that if they say anything critical of Trump--forget negative--he will support people when they are up for reelection to go after them in primaries. No matter what he does a core of Republicans, maybe half of them, will stick with him and vote as he tells them to vote. Even, remember, if he kills someone on Fifth Avenue. In other words, Trump would primary anyone who says a critical thing about him. At least that's what has them shaking in their boots." He paused to hear my reaction.

"I need to run in a few minutes so could you speed this up?"

"You're back in New York, the Big Satan, for a couple of days and already you're in a rush."

"Well, I am. I happen to have a doctor's appointment."

"Nothing too serious, I hope."

"I'll let you know the next time we talk. But, please, finish your thought about Mueller."

"Simple--his report will give these quivering Republicans political cover."

"I think I see where you're heading with this."

"If Mueller provides conclusive evidence of high crimes and misdemeanors, Republicans will begin to back away from Trump, claiming their behavior--behavior they look forward to displaying since softening up their rhetoric is the only way to save themselves. They will say, 'What are we supposed to do with this mountain of evidence? Ignore it?' They have no choice but to back away from Trump while absolving themselves of blame. They might even fool enough people to win some primaries, rescuing themselves because by 'reluctantly' (put that in quotes) accepting what Mueller reports they will be able to pretend that they were reluctant Trump supporters all along. It will remove what wind is left in Trump's sails. It will be like hiding behind Mueller's skirt. This is why the ever-slippery Lindsay Graham is sounding as if he is uncoupling himself from Trump. He'll soon be on the lookout to find someone new to cuddle up to."

"I can see all of this happening. But why, from your perspective, is this good news? With your boy, Trump being brought down?"

"Here's the dirty little secret." Jack lowered his voice as if not wanting to be overheard. "Because Trump is being exposed as a loser. His whole thing has been to present himself as a winner. Remember during the campaign he kept saying, 'There will be so much winning you'll get tired of winning?'"

"I remember that."

"Well, after Election Day and the Mueller report he won't be able to get away with saying that anymore. Seeing nearly 40 Republican seats in the House flip to Democrats doesn't look like winning. Especially to Republicans in Congress who care only about their version of winning--getting reelected. Wait and see what will happen to Republican senators up for reelection in 2020 if they stay rafted up with Trump."

"But you already have him either not running in two years or if he does defeated by a Dem other than Sanders or Warren. So you have me totally confused about what you think or would like to see happen. Not what Republicans in general or members of Congress are up to. Let me put it to you directly--do you want Trump to be reelected or defeated? Or maybe just disappear?"

Half ignoring me, Jack said, "After last Tuesday there's blood in the water and everyone in Congress knows that. The Mueller report will just be the clincher. But crucial nonetheless since the Republicans can use it to justify their own independence from Trump and will not need to depend on riding his coat tales."

"But," Jack continued, still hushed, "Here's the secret--Trump will lose even to Elizabeth Warren."

"What?" It's that bad for him? I thought you said she or Bernie would lose? Now I'm totally confused."

"To tell you the truth I was trying to make myself feel better. I wasn't thinking things through. I was trying to begin to reconcile myself to a very unpleasant situation. The prospect of Warren or Sanders in the White House."

"But, remember me and my lawn signs," Jack said, "In the prediction business I have a pretty good track record. Though next time around things won't turn out so good."

"Again, what are you predicting? We're on the phone but I can feel you smiling. Like you're playing with me. And now I have to go, without enough time to be able to figure out what you're saying about your own position."

"Good luck with the doctor," he said, laughing and hanging up.

September 24, 2018--Rosencrantz & Rosenstein Are Dead

Friday afternoon the New York Times, in a bombshell report, revealed that deputy attorney general, Ron Rosenstein, after just two weeks on the job, was so upset by the president's aberrant behavior that he thought seriously about "wearing a wire" to record some off the mayhem. 

He even thought about talking to the vice president and attorney general (his boss) about the possibility of invoking the 25th Amendment, which sets forth the conditions under which a president can be removed from office. Mind you, again, all this after just two weeks on the job.

Not only did Rosenstein contemplate this but he also told work colleagues about his concerns. Hence, the leak to the Times and the revelations.

This may have a devastating affect on the Mueller investigation in that he reports to Rosenstein and could easily wind up being fired by Trump along with the deputy AG, thereby potentially driving a stake in the heart of Mueller's efforts.

From this self-inflicted error, Trump must feel as if he died and went to heaven. 

Just as Trump was reeling from Paul Manafort flipping and the Kavanaugh nomination potentially collapsing he gets handed a get-out-of-jail-free card by his nemesis, Ron Rosenstein.

How stupid is Rosenstein? Let me count a few of the ways--

If he was so upset by what he was witnessing in the Trump White House and needed to talk about it are FBI and Justice Department colleagues the best people to whom to confess? We can only assume that as soon as Rosenstein finished unburdening himself and drifted down the DOJ hall they speed-dialed 1-800-New York Times. They had some story to share!

Doesn't Rosenstein have a wife with whom he could share this? One who would say, "I hear you darling, but one thing--make sure not to talk about any of this in the office. Especially anything about a wire or the 25th Amendment."

I know I'm sounding cynical but Mueller's investigation is as a result more precarious and Republicans now have validation for their conspiracy theories--witch hunt, rigged investigation, Deep State. I wouldn't be surprised to see GOP poll numbers increase for their midterm election candidates.

To be frank, between now and November 6th all I'm interested in is winning. Until then I don't care who's telling the truth or, for that matter, what the truth is. We're in a political life-and-death struggle and everyone has to be persistent, ruthless, and smart.

In other words, behave like Republicans.

September 19, 2018--Trump On Thorazine

Whatever meds the White House staff are lacing into Trump's Big Macs I want to get me some.

Last week former Trump campaign manager and money launderer, Paul Manafort went down, pleading guilty to dozens of felonies as part of a flip deal with the Mueller investigation, effectively joining the prosecution team in its probe of Trump's criminal empire.

It is now obvious that shortly after the midterms Mueller will move to indite First Son, Donald Jr, and First Son-In-Law, Jared Kushner, with Manafort, by then Mueller's favorite canary, chirping about the true nature of what went on in Trump Tower and Trump and his family's ongoing dealings with Russia, especially Russian oligarch money cleansed and passed through as bailout loans to Trump through that global financial laundromat, Deutsche Bank.  

One would have expected a torrent or vicious tweets from Trump, savaging everyone from Manafort to Mueller to Jeff Sessions to Hillary Clinton and Barack Obama.

But, no, since Friday, there has not been even one hot tweet. Or, for that matter, a cool one. Nothing whatsoever about Manafort flipping. Not even a reiteration of the preposterous idea that flipping should be illegal.

Then there is the response to the accusation that Supreme Court nominee, Brett Kavanaugh, more than 35 years ago, attempted to rape a 17 year-old girl. From a man who devoted so much effort attempting to stifle women from telling their stories about their sexual escapades with him, including by paying them hush money, to say the least, it comes as a surprise that Trump yesterday sounded almost normal when he said that we should respect Kavanaugh's accuser's right to tell her story, "to be heard," even if it delays by a week or so a vote to confirm his lifetime appointment to the highest court in the land.

There is one single truth that is revealed by both of these responses--Trump is scared. Terrified. As he should be. The circle is closing, the end is near, and he knows it.

Anything is now possible. Including this semblance of reasonableness which to Trump proceeds political self-imolation or surrender.

August 22, 2018--The Fall of the House of Trump

On split-screen TV, on the same day, during the same hour, with the conviction of Donald Trump's campaign manager Paul Manafort, the guilty pleas of Trump fixer Michael Cohen, who will now sing like a canary, with the reminder yesterday that former National Security Advisor and confessed felon, Michael Flynn is still spilling the beans to the Mueller investigators, and the promise of more troubles to come (like the indictment of Don Jr?), well short of two years into his presidency, before our eyes, Trump World is unraveling.

As a result we can expect to see a great deal of desperate, out of control behavior by our deflating president.

There will be firings, there will be pardons, expect an intensification of insults and threats to soft targets such as Little Rocket Man, expect distractions, including some wave-the-dog military action. Expect more unhinged rallies like the one last night in West Virginia, and of course there will be more tweet storms with Mueller and Sessions in the crosshairs as Trump also continues to savage Omarosa, Maxine Waters, Nancy Pelosi, and Hillary. 

Melania will disappear from sight (also yesterday she announced she's about to take off on a solo trip to some "s-hole" countries in Africa) as will the Kusners. Unless Jared as well finds himself under the Mueller bus.

One thing not to expect--more than a handful of critical comments from wimped-out Republicans. They helped create Trump, rode his coattails to congressional leadership, doubled their bets on him as the midterms approached, and now will trickle down to insignificance with him. 

It is too late for these "rats" (Trump's word) to abandon ship. Live by him, die by him. As Tennyson wrote, to class up this sordid tale, we are seeing "Nature red in tooth and claw."

No one in Congress is writing a profile in courage.

And don't expect anything Trump perpetrates to protect him beyond Election Day. Even if Mueller is fired, like the Pentagon Papers, his report will see the light of day and, as a result, after Democrats win control of the House in early November, investigative hearings will begin January 2nd, Trump will be impeached by the House by the fall of 2019.

Though he will not be convicted by the Senate even if Democrats retake the majority since that requires an impossible 67 votes.

But in spite of this Trump will not retain the presidency beyond 2020. Knowing he can't win reelection, after declaring "mission accomplished," expect him to opt out for "health reasons." He will do a Nixon and turn the keys to the White House over to Mike Pence. Another nightmare in waiting.

But rather than focusing on that, let's enjoy the moment and the evidence from yesterday that the "system" may be working.

Paul Manafort Mugshot

August 3, 2018--The Donald, Jr.

"What is it Udai? Are you and your brother Qusai in trouble again? Here's twenty. Now go away."

"But Daddy . . ."

"Don't you see I'm busy. I'm trying to round up 150 thousand. That moron Cohen-Head tells me that bimbo what's-her-name insists on cash or a check or who-knows-what. He thinks I'm made of money. 

"I've had it with him. All he does is call me up to beg me to come to Passover or his kid's bar mitzvah. He thinks I'm Jewish like that gorgeous sister of yours. 

"And he mumbles all the time. I can't understand a word he says. He keeps telling me to talk slower and louder. He must be going deaf. Or you'd think he's trying to make a tape recording or something. What a jerk.

"I wish someone would shoot him already. Let's see if he really wants to take a bullet for me. One of these days I might just do it myself. And like I keep saying I could shoot someone and my people wouldn't blink an eye. My favorables would probably go through the roof. Like Reagan's or Lincoln's."

"But Daddy . . ."

"Didn't I tell you I'm busy? Here's another five. Take Qusai with you and go play in traffic."

"But Daddy I just got an email from some Russian woman lawyer--Natalia Vaseline or something. I never can pronounce their names. They're all Greek to me."

"To make a loan to us? They're rolling in it. We got a shit-load from Deutsche Bank. It's a regular Russian laundromat."

"It's not about money, it's about Hillary. They have dirt."

"What? What's this dirt business?"

"This lady lawyer said they had a lot of dirt on Hillary and her campaign and want to take a meeting with us--I don't mean with you but with me and Qusai and Jared and that weasel Manafort."

"What does she look like? You know some of those Russians . . . If you were a man I could tell you stories."

"We can always say it's about adopting Russian children. Nobody would care about that or want to know the specifics. Not even CNN."

"Remember--no collusion. And while you're at it see if they can get their hands on Hillary's server. And her 30,000 emails. See if they have any tapes of Clinton fooling around when he was in Moscow. He's there all the time making deals for their uranium and he likes the ladies. We could leak it to Hannity."

"I'll remember to ask. But are you sure we should meet with them because . . ."

"As long as I don't know about it. You see me winking? Remember no collusion." 

"I already forgot we talked."

"Good boy. Here's a hundred. Take Qusai out for a nice lunch."

Above--Saddam Hussein With Udai and Qusai 

August 3, 2018--Trump's Friday Night Massacre

With the Paul Manafort trial under way and with hints that the Mueller investigation may be close to culminating, Trump seems more and more panicked and out of control.

In one of his flood of tweets yesterday he ranted again about Attorney General Jeff Sessions, pressing him to end the "witch hunt" that is "hurting the country." 

Legal scholars say that this public pressure by the president in itself may constitute obstruction of justice. Trump's lawyers are once again frustrated that they are unable to get him to calm down and not do himself even more harm than he has already inflicted through his rash public statements. 

How likely is that? 

From the prosecution at the Manafort trial required via "disclosure" to reveal the evidence they have against him, Trump for the first time is seeing the details of the strong case the government is presenting. The likelihood that Manafort will be convicted or, for Trump more threatening, will flip before the end of the trial (it happens all the time) has him unhinged.

And then, again through discovery and Michael Cohen beginning to reveal the goods he has on Trump and his family, Trump may be getting glimpses of the devastating case about to come crashing down on him. 

Thus his mouthpiece Rudy Giuliani is racing from cable news network to cable news network to try to get out front of the story. For example, for the first time preemptively acknowledging there "may" have been some kind of thus far undisclosed meeting (collusion meeting?) prior to the infamous one in Trump Tower about the "dirt" the Russians had on Hillary.

As a result, here's what I expect to happen in the next few weeks as Trump learns even more about what he is facing. Nothing short of the end of life as he has known it--

In his version of the Saturday Night Massacre, he will fire Jeff Sessions, his deputy Ron Rosnestein, and Robert Mueller himself.

Since he realizes at some point desperate to save himself, in spite of the consequences, he will feel compelled to do this, why wait while more and more of the Manafort case leaks out and as he continues to learn more about what Mueller is about to report? It's like when needing an operation the waiting can be the worst part.

Don't for a minute think this will cause a "constitutional crisis." under normal circumstances it would. But with Trump nothing is normal.

The Democrats will call it a crisis but since they at the moment have no congressional power to do anything more than rant, will run out of gas in less than a week. The networks also will move on. And don't expect more than a handful of Republican senators and representatives to do more than give lip service to the situation. More than anything else, as they face reelection, they are afraid of his base.

In regard to that base, at the rally the other night in Tampa, Trump with intent whipped his supporters into a frenzy against the reporters present to show them and the rest of us their violent potential. It was a scary display of his power.

As upsetting as all this is, it may have its good side--

It assures that in November, in a landslide, Democrats will take control of the House of Representatives and perhaps even the Senate. This will result in early 2019 in Trump's impeachment. Not his conviction in the Senate (60 votes are required), but as a result he will be largely neutered.   

Of course, his dead enders will remain but they are more about bluster than anything resembling perverse courageousness. Thus  don't expect pitchforks and torches. It will be bad enough. But this situation needs to be cauterized. And that will be. We've seen and been through worse.

Trump Tampa Rally

April 20, 2018--Trump's End Game

Many of us have been comforted by the belief that even if Robert Mueller is fired and his report gets squelched, even if President Trump pardons 20 or more people, everyone from son-in-law Jared Kushner to Paul Manafort to Michael Flynn and especially his personal lawyer, Michael Cohen, all or most of them would still be prosecutable by state attorney generals such as New York's Eric Schneiderman for violating state law because presidential pardons pertain only to federal law.

For example, if Cohen secured a home equity loan from a New York bank, claiming it was to renovate his apartment but then used it to buy Stormy Daniel's silence, he might have committed bank fraud and thus could be pursued by Schneiderman.

Well, it may turn out, not so much.

Just two days ago the New York attorney general asked Governor Andrew Cuomo and the state legislature to pass a new law to cover a potential loophole in the current law that might not allow the state to prosecute anyone who had received a blanket federal pardon by a president. That to do so might be a technical form of double jeopardy.  

A quick analysis of how possible it would be to pass such a law suggests it could be quite unlikely. Though the New York Senate has a slim Democratic majority it is hard to believe that it is solid enough to go along with Schneiderman's request.

And so . . . 

In this circumstance, "and so . . ." is not very comforting.

Also on Wednesday, at his press conference in Florida with Japan's prime minister Abe Trump, Trump was asked if he is going to fire deputy attorney general, Ron Rosenstein, or Robert Mueller. His response, "Well, they're still here."

They are, and more germane, so is he. Trump will continue to be here, he is gambling, even as the circle of protection closes in on him.

Here's how that might work--

Of course he pardons everyone in sight who has been investigated, questioned, deposed, or indicted by Mueller's people. That could include pardoning himself  

Then he fires everyone in sight associated with the Justice Department (Rosenstein, Sessions, Mueller) and in the federal southern district in New York City where the Michael Cohen case now resides.

Then all the Trump-associated lawyers move to shut down the possibility of any state attempting to prosecute him or any of his people via state law, claiming that would constitute double jeopardy.

There of course would be a firestorm of outrage. A "constitutional crisis" (whatever that means). All but Fox News and the right-wing crazies on talk radio would seethe, investigate, and run six-inch high banner headlines decrying these step toward a tyrany. And it would be that. A big step in that direction.

Some would see this scenario to be unlikely. Trump would instantly become the most reviled president in history. His ego is such that he wouldn't willingly take on all the abuse that would be heaped upon him. He'd rather take his chances. This could include impeachment, though he wouldn't be convicted. 

Most constitutional lawyers say that sitting presidents can't be criminally indicted. Couple that with the knowledge that the two presidents who have been impeached (Nixon, though he came close, never was) were not convicted and tossed out of office by the Senate. 

Thus, in Trump's mind there is a case to be made for standing pat. For letting things play out. In fact, Bill Clinton became more popular after being impeached. Andrew Johnson is a whole other story.

Trump has already been more fully exposed (almost literally) then any other president. ("Best sex ever!") He perversely seems to thrive on being humiliated. It's the old story of not caring what's said about you as long as they spell your name correctly and keep the spotlight on you.

So, he could be thinking, ride it out. How long will members of Congress go on cable news and rail about him and what he is bringing down upon the country? More than two weeks? I doubt it.

And so there he might continue to sit. Still with Air Force One available to whisk him back and forth to Mar-a-Lago. And he'll continue to be commander in chief, having his hands on all those terrible toys.

I know this is darkly pessimistic. But if any of it is true we have to face it and deal with it.

So here then is the good news--

THIS SCENARIO IS IN OUR HANDS TO RESIST AND OVERCOME.

By voting first in November and then in 2020. 

It really isn't that difficult. We don't need to take up arms. We just need to vote and get everyone we know to do so.

If the Democrats take over the House, investigations and articles of impeachment will follow quickly. If Democrats gain control of the Senate, though there will not be enough of them even with a few courageous Republicans to convict him--that requires a two-thirds vote--but Trump will be effectively neutered. That will get us safely to 2020 when he will be eminently defeatable. As long as we don't get stupid and nominate someone sure to lose. A list of those to follow one day soon. Hint--it includes Bernie and Warren.

Then the rebuilding will begin. Don't forget, we fought a Civil War that tore the country apart. But we survived and emerged stronger than ever.

Eric Schneiderman

April 14, 2108--Wagging the Dogs

I tend not to be conspiratorial minded, but these days I am hard-pressed to maintain this posture.

I mean, is it a coincidence that the military action we are taking against Syria seems to be occurring at the same time as James Comey's book is about to be published?

What better way is there to keep the former FBI director's book off the front page then stumbling into a potential war with Russia?

Is it a coincidence that President Trump was egged-on to take a very tough position on Syria by British Prime Minister Theresa May who is also attempting to keep her collapsing political fortunes off the front pages? 

They both may have personal interest in wagging the dogs of war.

And why, all of a sudden, was former Vice President Dick Cheney's chief of staff, Scooter Libby, pardoned by Donald Trump? Not just, I suspect, as a gesture to the base who feel Scooter was persecuted and prosecuted for political reasons by a former special counsel, Patrick Fitzgerald? Forget for the moment that it was during a Republican administration, during George W. Bush's presidency that he was appointed and that Fitzgerald, like Mueller, is a lifelong Republican. 

And where else besides Fitzgerald have I heard anything recently about a "special counsel"? 

Anyone picking up anything about someone called "Robert Mueller"? What might be happening with him and the person he reports to, Deputy Attorney General Ron Rosenstein?

Also, could it be that the timing of the Libby pardon is an unplanned coming together by chance of these incidents?

Or is Libby's pardon a signal to those already indicted by Mueller that if they hang tough and do not turn on their boss pardons down the line await? Is Paul Manafort paying attention?

Then though I am relieved that initial reports indicate our military strike in Syria was tightly targeted and "moderate" (the way this morning's New York Times described it) is the timing and confluence of activities merely coincidental?

Chance, coincidence are always possibilities; but Trump, who we must agree, if nothing else, has thus far figured out how to live a life in which he many times has "gotten away with murder" (until now a figure of speech) in both his private and professional life may be at it again. 

Things are looking quite bleak for Trump right now, especially the threats to him from Comey's published accusations and the ramped-up investigation of his "personal lawyer," Michael Cohen, that nothing emanating from Trump is likely being left to chance. 

Scooter Libby

March 9, 2018--My 3,333rd Blog Posting: Suicide Is Painless

The one thing thus far missing from the Trump Show is a murder or suicide. 

In regard to that he's not keeping up with the Clintons who, according to the conspiracy-minded, as early as their first year in the White House, already had a few.

Vince Foster comes to mind.

He was a colleague of Hillary's in the Rose law firm in Little Rock and her suspected lover. He followed the Clintons to Washington and during the first six months of Bill's presidency served in the administration as deputy White House counsel.

One day, after not showing up for work, Foster was found dead in Fort Marcy Park, shot in the head. 

Many on the lunatic fringe claimed that the Clintons murdered him, though five separate investigations found that Foster, unhappy in Washington, had grown despondent and killed himself. 

For years afterward, Clinton haters did not accept that verdict, including Jerry Falwell, who, through the Arkansas Project, alleged that there were two witnesses who had incontrovertible evidence that Foster was murdered by Bill and Hillary. However, before they could testify, Falwell claimed they were killed in two separate plane crashes.

On late-night talk radio, along with a continuing drumbeat of accusation about Hillary's role in the death of our embassy workers in Benghazi, one can still hear ranting about the murder of Vince Foster.

Thus far with Trump, we hear about Playboy centerfolds and porn stars, but nothing yet about suicides or murders. 

Give them time. He's been in office only 14 months.

As things close in tighter and tighter on Trump and his inner circles, I anticipate there will be a few. 

Would one be surprised if Trump's so-called "outside" lawyer, Michael Cohen, who has created a fiasco out of attempting to obscure and silence talk about Trump's longterm extra-marital affair with porn star Stormy Daniels, took a handful of pills? 

He is clearly one of those Trump enablers who has been with him for years, cleaning up his messes, who feels as if he would take a bullet for Trump. Barring that, killing himself would serve. 

And, of course, this would have the additional benefit of Sean Hannity blaming it on Hillary. 

Then there is the strange case of Sam Nunberg, another Trump hanger-on, who until recently was also available to take a bullet for the big guy and who became a household name earlier this week among cable news devotees as he made the rounds of talk shows, muttering semi-coherently about being subpoenaed by one of Robert Mueller's grand juries. On the Ari Melber show, for example, he was so agitated that Melber and his panelists suspended normal interviewing and tried to talk him down from the ledge. 

As of this morning Nunberg says he will cooperate with Mueller, his is not off the wagon, and though he's still alive, he's on my watch list. 

And, of course, if he does do himself in, Rush Limbaugh can always blame it on Obama.

Would anyone be surprised if Paul Manafort was found dead soon after imbibing some exotic Russian potion? Either administered by the same operative who poisoned the Russian defector and his daughter earlier this week in London (he could have had an open-jaw plane ticket from Moscow to London to Washington to Moscow) or the polonium-210 could have been self-administered by Manafort who at age 68 is looking at 80 years in federal prison. That would make him even older than my 107-year-old mother if he managed to serve his entire sentence.

What with his literal million-dollar custom wardrobe, which he paid for with Ukrainian money, living the rest of his life in a 50 square foot jail in an orange jumpsuit with no belt or shoelaces is not that GQ. 

But again, if Manafort is no more, his demise can be blamed on Huma Abedin or Susan Rice or Eric Holder. 

And, finally, there is Trump himself. From the current look of him it appears as if he is eating himself to death. A few more supersized Big Macs, with his clogged arteries, who knows. 

On the other hand he'll have no one to blame but himself.

January 25, 2018--Mueller's "Whitewash"

I have a Facebook friend who has been consistently pessimistic about everything involving Donald Trump and the fate of the world. Among other things he expects to see nuclear war with North Korea breaking out this year.

He is very angry and may be right on all counts as he is smart, successful, and well informed.

Here's a recent, slightly edited example from his postings--

I'm now worried that Mueller is going to do a whitewash. I cannot understand why he hasn't brought in Trump's lying son or Kushner and his wife. At first I thought it was because he knew if he did Trump would fire him. But now I don't know. They all need to go to jail if not for lying than for money laundering and tax evasion. They must be deterred from ever seeking public office. I'm worried.

Thinking about this and the list of witnesses Mueller has interviewed and is planning to seek testimony from, it is curious that the Kusners and Trump's sons are not on the list. Trump himself, though, clearly appears to be.

Traditionally with investigations and prosecutions of this kind, where there may be collusion, obstruction of justice, and conspiratorial behavior, prosecutors work their way up the witness food chain. From, in this case, the likes of George (Coffee Boy) Papadopoulos to Paul Manafort to Michael Flynn to Jeff Sessions to Steve Bannon and then on to members of Trump's inner-inner circle, including ultimately the president and his potentially implicatable family members.

So what is Mueller's logic of seemingly not seeking testimony from Trump's sons, daughter, and beloved son-in-law?

I've been struggling to make sense of these curious omissions and have finally come to what I now see to be very clever. This should have been apparent to me sooner as Mueller is nothing if not clever.

The special counsel is intentionally not planning to include the children in his investigation and thus will not charge them in his ultimate findings.

Keeping his eye on the big picture--Donald Trump and what he did that is potentially indictable or impeachable in order to cleanse the system, Mueller does not want to incite Trump even more than he is fulminating at present.

Mueller suspects that if he moves against any of the children, Trump will go off the rails and immediately pardon them, disband Mueller's team, and fire Attorney General Sessions and Mueller himself, precipitating a constitutional crises that will make Watergate look no more troubling than a parking ticket.

As a backup to a version of likely mass firings reminiscent of the Watergate Saturday Night Massacre, in addition, the main thing from a Mueller perspective, is to get enough work completed, enough evidence double and triple checked, enough of the mosaic of evidence pulled together into a coherent and convincing narrative, and to insure enough channels are in place to leak all of this to the public and Congress if it hits the fan before he completes his work. 

Mueller wants to make it certain that Americans get the full report of his findings. To, if necessary, leak them so no matter what Trump does to him and his staff, the truth will out.

The bottom line for the investigation and for us is what Trump knew and then did. If our democracy is to survive we need to know the peril in which we have been so that we can recover what has already been lost. Everything Mueller does should be viewed in this critical light.