December 3, 2018--Cozying Up

He wouldn't agree to fly the flag at the Capital at half mast and it took two days after he died for him to squeeze out a few words of condolence. 

So, after treating John McCain's death shabbily I've been wondering why Trump so quickly had appropriate words to offer about his passing and generously ordered Air Force One to fly to Houston to bring George H. W. Bush's body back to Washington. 

When thinking about Trump's true feelings about Bush and his sons "generous" and "appropriate" aren't words that come quickly to mind. 

This from a man who during the campaign mocked Jeb for having "low energy" and who said, "We need another Bush in office about as much as we need Obama to have a 3rd term." In Trump's political cosmology that's about as nasty as it gets--including Bush and Obama in the same sentence.

But there you are.

Could it be, then, that behaving with uncharacteristic moderation is Trump's way of thanking our 41st president for dying at just the right time to distract the nation and the media from the bad news for Trump emerging daily from the Mueller investigation?

Since for Trump it's always about himself, now that we know him as intimately as we do, this helps explain his unexpectedly thoughtful behavior. 

Though Trump resents and hates his betters (a very long list that includes all former presidents except Jackson, about whom he in fact knows nothing), he has an instinct for spotting his betters and for our outer-borough president that includes the Kennedys, Obamas, and Bushes. With each he has a complicated hate-love relationship. 

Trump so craves positive attention that by thrusting himself into the events that are following H. W.'s death he likely hopes that by cozying up some of the personal characteristics that made 43 respected might rub off on him. 

This is a case of legitimization by association.

The tributes flowing in about Bush do not fit Trump's character but since he is not someone to be shy about pushing his way into all available spotlights, during the services expect Trump to be on camera more than anyone other than Bush family members.

In any list of Bush qualities, Trump palls by comparison. 

Among the many things being said about George H. W. Bush, he was thought to be temperate, inclusive, generous, bipartisan, thoughtful, informed, collaborative, modest, ethical, graceful, gracious, moderate, self-effacing, playful, and deferential. 

He was far from perfect and he should not be over-adulated now that he is gone, but even without the inclination to forget limitations and faults after one's passing, this still sounds like the real George H. W. Bush. 

Inverting this list, where generous becomes greedy and modest become narcissistic, would produce an accurate picture of the man who now occupies the former president's chair in the Oval Office.

Then, by this week's end Mueller will be back on the case and places for Trump to hide from culpability will be even more limited. Also, Bush's example won't be able to help protect Trump from himself. In fact, attempting to claim he is worthy of sharing in our former presidents' example Trump will find that the spotlight not only illuminates but can also scorch.

March 24, 2016--Jeb! for President

Jeb Bush tiptoed through the Florida primary, not saying a word much less endorsing anyone.

Most thought--no surprise.

He was sitting on the presidential sidelines while his erstwhile ingrate mentee, Marco Rubio, though on political life support, was at that time the only one left in the GOP field who had a chance to cut into "low energy" Jeb!-tormentor Donald Trump's overwhelming lead in the Florida polls.

This made psychological as much as political sense--it was asking too much to expect Jeb! to forget and forgive Little Marco. With Rubio all but certain to go down in flames in their home state, did Jeb! want to be associated with more loss. His own political demise was enough for him to bear--the only adult male Bush not to become president.

Think again.

I say that because we shouldn't be fooled by the meaning of Jeb!'s endorsement the other day of Ted Cruz.

This is not about helping Lying Ted win the nomination but about Jeb! Bush's resumed campaign for the presidency. Ambition and political fantasies run deep in the Bush family.

Here's the plan--

Though patrician Bush cannot see Cruz as anything but an interloper in his family's party, right now he is a useful stalking horse.

With Bush and other tattered establishment types coalescing around support for Cruz, it is surely not to help him become the nominee much less president. In truth he is hated more than Donald Trump. Trump is opposed because he's not playing ball in all the old and corrupt ways: he's too much of a loose cannon. He might actually want to do something about "people dying in the street." Thus current support for Cruz is tactical, situational.

The Jeb! plan is to help him get enough delegates to deny Trump a majority and thereby force a brokered convention. And at that point, for the moment, dump him. Thus, the outcome of that brokering will not be a Cruz nomination. It will not be a Kasich nomination. It will not be a Trump nomination. It may though be a Trump riot.

After a few inconclusive ballots, deadlocked and frustrated delegates will turn to someone other than Cruz, Kasich, or Trump.

Who might that be?

We already know Romney is interested (he too has a daddy problem when it comes to presidential ambition) but has had his two chances. We know Paul Ryan is interested--though he demurred that he didn't want to become Speaker and pretend-reluctantly "gave in" only when the distraught party turned to him to save them from themselves--and thus his current coyness fits the pattern of his particular kind of under-the-radar ambition. But he was a flop last time around as Mitt's running mate. Usually one gets to be just one savior in a lifetime.

And now we know Jeb! is interested.

Though Jeb! was a disastrous candidate through South Carolina, he actually could be the best one for the GOP to turn to. Among other things, if he could show some spunk, the big money boys might find their way back to him. And against Hillary, he could win maybe a dozen states and perhaps help Republicans retain control of the Senate.

At the GOP convention, by the fourth ballot the still-contending candidates will be feeling desperate. Some of them, realizing they have no shot at the presidency, begin to shop around to see who might make the best deal. The best deal to satisfy their ambitions.

Rubio has 166 delegates but no future in politics. He is leaving the Senate in January and is an unlikely candidate to become the Florida governor in 2018. We see how much his constituents like him--they voted for Trump in the Florida primary by almost two-to-one.

"How does US attorney general sound to you?" a Jeb! operative will ask a Rubio operative. Sounds good to Rubio. Done deal.

Kasich will have 200-300 delegates and for them he gets Treasure. Secretary of the Treasury.

Then, as Jeb's looks around there is the candidate he endorsed sitting with at least 600 delegates.

He's from Texas, is a Latino, and has all those delegates.

"How does VEEP sound . . .?" That's an easy one.

So at the end of the day, after enough Trump delegates do their ugly thing, we will have Jeb!-Rubio versus Hillary-Julian Castro.

If Mother campaigns with him maybe he could win 15 states. But still not the winning combination.

I think he wouldn't even carry Florida. My mother's old friends, the Ladies of Forest Trace, some of whom were Suffragettes, can't wait to see a woman in the White House. But not as First lady.