July 26, 2020--Upset

After revealing here that I was planning to watch all four days of the Republican convention one friend who read my piece asked why I was going to torture myself that way. "Why not instead watch a movie or tune into the new Perry Mason?"

"To know thy enemy," I said. 

"I get it," she said, "Maybe I'll try to do the same thing."

After the first night, another friend called to ask how I did. I confessed that the convention so upset me that I stopped watching at about 10:30.

"I stopped at 9:00," she said, "Shortly after we spoke on the phone. I spent the rest of the night listening to West-coast jazz," she said, still sounding languid. 

"What upset you?" she said, "As if I don't know--Everything? All of it? Right?"

"Yes and no," I said.  

"Tell me about the 'no,'" she said.

"They were disgusting. All the presenters. Nikki Haley was the worst. She was almost drooling in anticipation of running for the presidency in four years. Her speech was like an acceptance speech. Most of it was about her family and childhood. But she also was so praiseworthy of Trump, sucking up to him, that she said, she really did, that he was in the vanguard of those fighting to save 'Western Civilization.'"

"So that's why he loves Putin so much," my friend said, "Another protector of Western Civilization. But, say more about what down deep upset you so much. Putin is old news as is Haley's interest in running for the presidency."

"You really know me, don't you," I said. "You know it was something else that got to me that made me so agitated."

"So tell, tell."

"I was as upset as I was not because of how bad the Trump people were, but because of how good they were. Even Donald Jr. came off looking substantial. When I realized that in their own perverse ways they were doing well I gabbed the remote and began surfing, looking for a Perry Mason rerun."

"I'm getting this," my friend said, "It may also have been why I didn't watch very much. I couldn't stand the idea of seeing them, in their own terms, doing well or even decently. I needed to see them screw up, making a mockery of themselves."

I said, "It also upset me to see how relatively organized they were. And that they could muster a version of diversity. They put on more than a few African-American and Latino folks. Not just a bunch of white guys clutching six-packs. I know I'm being stereotypical, but really, they did credibly and that upset me."

"Me too," my friend confessed.

I then said, "At least since the late '60s the Republicans have been working on their political revolution. You remember Kevin Phillip's, The Emerging Republican Majority? It was published in 1969 and became a kind of road map for how to take power. Including competing for anything up for grabs, from dog catcher to governor to senator to president. Republicans for many decades have been working on taking power at the local, state, and national levels. And have had a lot of success."

We paused to catch our breaths and think about all the things we discussed that had upset us so much. 

My fiend finally said, "I think you're right, but Biden is still going to win. And big." 

"I agree," I said. "But we'd better work our asses off to make sure that happens."

Kimberly Guilfoyle--Don Junior's Gilrlfiend 

July 20, 2016--Melania's Speech

The flap about Melania Trump's speech yields good gossip and obvious material for late night comedians, but it is important in other, revealing ways.

Thirteen months ago when I wrote here about why we should take Donald Trump's candidacy seriously and not dismiss him as a narcissistic comedian, I quoted a friend who told me why he was putting out lawn signs to show his support for Trump.

Though he had never been to New York City he surprisingly knew about Trump's efforts to fix the problems with the ice skating rink in Central Park. How the city government had struggled for years and spent millions to fix it but still it produced slurry and not ice and thus could not be used.

Frustrated, in a few months, at his own expense, Trump repaired it and since that time many thousands have enjoyed it.

To my friend, this was in effect a metaphor for his enthusiasm for Trump--no matter his policy views (and they were as confused then as now), Trump, he was convinced, knew how to get things done and would make our government work again in behalf of all Americans.

Then there was Melania's speech. No matter how it was composed, by Mrs. Trump or a gaggle of speech writers, it in fact does almost word-for-word plagiarize--there is no other word for it--Michelle Obama's 2008 convention speech.

Is this an example of Trump competency?

Who are the hack writers who were hired to produce perhaps the convention's most important speech? The one that was to humanize the Donald, to show his sensitivity to women? In political terms this was to be another ice skating rink. A way to demonstrate that he knew how to do business, to make things great again.

But all it reveals is careless disregard for the public, especially for those who doggedly supported him and waited on line for hours to attend his rallies and cheer him on. Instead, it shows how he takes people for granted and feels entitled to their support and belief in him.

The speech also reenforces another narrative about Donald and the other Trumps: that they are grifters.

People who have made their way and their inflated fortune by duping and in other ways taking advantage of people who look up to and respect them. Or who are symbiotically attracted to the glittering image the Trumps fraudulently project to the world.

Grifters who shamelessly will even steal another person's words.

Whether she knew she was being used or not, ironically grifted, Melania the night before last doomed the Trump candidacy to the proverbial scrapheap of history.

July 13, 2016--Trump's VEEP

Even after the FBI director essentially indicted Hillary Clinton, according to yesterday's NBC tracking poll, she still leads Donald Trump by three percentage points. Though this is within the margin of effort, Clinton remains in the lead. And a lead is a lead.

With the GOP convention only five days away, to overtake Clinton, Trump needs to do at least three things--

The convention itself needs to be engaging, even entertaining since so much of what got Trump here in the first place was, how else to put it, amusing. Even his frequent but unpredictable gaffs.

Then he has to deliver a vice presidential candidate who is relatively uncontroversial--which should rule out Chris Christie (Bridgegate) and Newt Gingrich (forced to resign the House speakership). Trump needs a VEEP who has gravitas, knows the world, and could credibly step into the presidency if Trump is in one way or the other unable to serve.

Third, equally important, he has to stop being a jerk.

This latter requirement will likely prove to be most difficult because just by not inviting Clint Eastwood to speak to a stool will assure he has a better convention than Mitt Romney. And almost any VP candidate, compared to Trump, will add seriousness to the ticket.

But a jerk he will likely still continue to be.

In regard to his vice president, without Christie and Gingrich, the consensus seems to be swinging toward Mike Pence, the governor of Indiana.

He has the right kind of congressional and gubernatorial experience to fill in some of those gaps for Trump, but he is unknown and so boooooring.

This has some advantages considering that Trump now might benefit politically by being a bit more boring--to demonstrate that he is not devoid of gravitas--but Pence would not bring any sizzle to the ticket. And some sizzle, some energy could be useful as Trump's act begins to feel stale.

With Jack at the Bristol Diner, like us a liberal, we discussed Trump's VEEP conundrum, made much more challenging because of his alienating so many senior Republicans. To the point that every day one or another announces he or she will not attend the convention or vote for him.

Of course, with the GOP and Trump's base having the Bushes stand him up and hint they will not be voting for him, this alone to many on the right is encouragement enough to firm up their decision to vote for him.

But this election, like most, will be determined by the five-to-10 percent who are truly independent and undecided. What Trump VEEP would appeal to them?

"Easy," I said, "Condi Rice." Feeling proud of myself for this long-shot prediction, I looked from Jack to Rona.

"She'd never agree to it," Jack said, "The Bushes would never talk to her again."

"The Bushes are finished," Rona said. "Who cares if they won't talk with her?"

"Doesn't she feel any loyalty to them?" Jack said.

"Look, she thought seriously about running for the GOP nomination in 2008 and Jeb had his eye on that. There's loyalist and then there's ambition."

"What does that mean?" I wondered, thinking further about what Jack had said.

"She's only 61," Rona pressed on, "Prime time for anyone who wants to be president. At the moment she's on the faculty of Stanford and on a few corporate boards and after being George W. Bush's National Security Council advisor and then his Secretary of State, life must feel boring to her."

"She could help continue to fight the wars that Bush and his team started."

"She's actually less hawkish than Hillary," I said.

"And if she agreed to do this for the party," Jack said, getting into the possibility, "it would help line up support for her for 2020 if they lose or for that matter if they win and Trump gets bored after one term and decides not to run for reelection."

"Of course," Rona said, "there are the obvious demographics she would bring to the ticket."

"Another thing that would appeal to Trump is that she's a football fanatic and loves golf."

"She's one of only two female members of the Augusta National course. She might even be able to sneak Trump in for a round or two. For certain he's not a member. They wouldn't have him even if he somehow managed to become president."

"I like it," Jack said, "I don't mean I like it enough to vote for them, but from an excitement, gravitas and political junky perspective, it would be a home run."

"And satisfy Trump's and the public's desire to shake things up," I said, rising to my own idea, "To do the unexpected since the same-old-same-old isn't getting the job done."

"Maybe it's making things worse," Rona said.

"I still think it's a long shot. But it's fun to speculate."

"It could prove to be an interesting week."

"He'll probably go for Pence," Rona said, sounding glum.

March 24, 2016--Jeb! for President

Jeb Bush tiptoed through the Florida primary, not saying a word much less endorsing anyone.

Most thought--no surprise.

He was sitting on the presidential sidelines while his erstwhile ingrate mentee, Marco Rubio, though on political life support, was at that time the only one left in the GOP field who had a chance to cut into "low energy" Jeb!-tormentor Donald Trump's overwhelming lead in the Florida polls.

This made psychological as much as political sense--it was asking too much to expect Jeb! to forget and forgive Little Marco. With Rubio all but certain to go down in flames in their home state, did Jeb! want to be associated with more loss. His own political demise was enough for him to bear--the only adult male Bush not to become president.

Think again.

I say that because we shouldn't be fooled by the meaning of Jeb!'s endorsement the other day of Ted Cruz.

This is not about helping Lying Ted win the nomination but about Jeb! Bush's resumed campaign for the presidency. Ambition and political fantasies run deep in the Bush family.

Here's the plan--

Though patrician Bush cannot see Cruz as anything but an interloper in his family's party, right now he is a useful stalking horse.

With Bush and other tattered establishment types coalescing around support for Cruz, it is surely not to help him become the nominee much less president. In truth he is hated more than Donald Trump. Trump is opposed because he's not playing ball in all the old and corrupt ways: he's too much of a loose cannon. He might actually want to do something about "people dying in the street." Thus current support for Cruz is tactical, situational.

The Jeb! plan is to help him get enough delegates to deny Trump a majority and thereby force a brokered convention. And at that point, for the moment, dump him. Thus, the outcome of that brokering will not be a Cruz nomination. It will not be a Kasich nomination. It will not be a Trump nomination. It may though be a Trump riot.

After a few inconclusive ballots, deadlocked and frustrated delegates will turn to someone other than Cruz, Kasich, or Trump.

Who might that be?

We already know Romney is interested (he too has a daddy problem when it comes to presidential ambition) but has had his two chances. We know Paul Ryan is interested--though he demurred that he didn't want to become Speaker and pretend-reluctantly "gave in" only when the distraught party turned to him to save them from themselves--and thus his current coyness fits the pattern of his particular kind of under-the-radar ambition. But he was a flop last time around as Mitt's running mate. Usually one gets to be just one savior in a lifetime.

And now we know Jeb! is interested.

Though Jeb! was a disastrous candidate through South Carolina, he actually could be the best one for the GOP to turn to. Among other things, if he could show some spunk, the big money boys might find their way back to him. And against Hillary, he could win maybe a dozen states and perhaps help Republicans retain control of the Senate.

At the GOP convention, by the fourth ballot the still-contending candidates will be feeling desperate. Some of them, realizing they have no shot at the presidency, begin to shop around to see who might make the best deal. The best deal to satisfy their ambitions.

Rubio has 166 delegates but no future in politics. He is leaving the Senate in January and is an unlikely candidate to become the Florida governor in 2018. We see how much his constituents like him--they voted for Trump in the Florida primary by almost two-to-one.

"How does US attorney general sound to you?" a Jeb! operative will ask a Rubio operative. Sounds good to Rubio. Done deal.

Kasich will have 200-300 delegates and for them he gets Treasure. Secretary of the Treasury.

Then, as Jeb's looks around there is the candidate he endorsed sitting with at least 600 delegates.

He's from Texas, is a Latino, and has all those delegates.

"How does VEEP sound . . .?" That's an easy one.

So at the end of the day, after enough Trump delegates do their ugly thing, we will have Jeb!-Rubio versus Hillary-Julian Castro.

If Mother campaigns with him maybe he could win 15 states. But still not the winning combination.

I think he wouldn't even carry Florida. My mother's old friends, the Ladies of Forest Trace, some of whom were Suffragettes, can't wait to see a woman in the White House. But not as First lady.