October 2, 2019--What's Up With Australia?

Before we could sit, John Allan said, "What's up with Australia?" His face with his new beard made him look cherubic. His eyes were as lively as I had seen for some time. He looked as if he had shed ten years since we had coffee with him just a few days ago.

"What's up with you?" I asked. 

"I was taking a shower and listening to NPR and they seemed to be talking about Australia. Is anything going on down there?" He was grinning and winking.

"I think I know what you're referring to," I said, "Trump."

"Right you are," John said, clapping his hands, now smiling playfully, "Remember George Papadopoulos? A low-level Trump operative who was stirring around looking for dirt about Hillary for the 2016 election? He somehow managed to meet with a high-level Australian diplomat in London who told him the Russians had stuff that could undermine Hillary's campaign. Including, I think, that the Ukrainians had their hands on a server that held thousands of her emails."

"I'm with you," I said, sliding into the booth.

"So, according to NPR Trump recently asked his cultural conservative pal, the Australian prime minister, Scott Morrison, who rose to prominence by leading the effort to close Australia's borders to refuges and immigrants, Trump asked him if he would help Attorney General, Trump's poodle, Bill Barr, who was traveling the world to gather information about the origins of the Mueller probe."

"He can't give that up," Rona said, "Even though he dodged the Mueller bullet, he's still obsessed with it."

"He never can let go of anything, especially anything critical of him," John said. "Even the smallest things. But that's just the beginning of the breaking news. All afternoon on Monday, beginning about 4 o'clock, there was one bombshell after another. First, we learned that Rudy was subpoenaed by three House committees to turn over to them documents about his Ukraine-related dealings."

"Next," Rona said, "we heard that Secretary of State, Mike Pompeo, was on the line during Trump's call with Ukraine president Zelezney. The 'do-us-a-favor' call that may turn out to be the smoking gun that brings Trump down."

"Then," John said, "there was the breaking news that Barr is on an undisclosed worldwide trip to gather dirt about his own FBI and the CIA. Specifically what they did to undermine Trump and help bring about the Mueller investigation. Barr's in Italy now."

"From the look of him," I said, "he's spending most of his time in trattorias."

"Nasty, nasty," John said, enjoying every word and tidbit of news and gossip, "We could go on," he said.

"I think it's the beginning of the end," Rona said. She's not prone to be optimistic about these matters.

"That's why you're looking so energetic and youthful," I said to John, "It's not just your beard." 

"I got some sleep and woke up at two in the morning, not as usual to anxiasize, but to see if there was any new news since I had gone to bed."

Rona said, "Speaking of sleep, I heard from my sister that my brother-in-law, for the first time in more than two years, had a good night's sleep."

March 28, 2019--Randy Paul

Did I hear or was I hallucinating that Kentucky Senator Rand Paul wants the Senate to investigate Barack Obama's alleged role in launching the Mueller investigation?

If you've noticed that some of the crazies who wait outside federal courts or the Department of Justice, the one's who wear clothes made from American flags, carrying FISA signs, they are alluding to Obama supposedly getting the FISA court to authorize illegal wiretaps of Trump associates in order to trap Trump in one nefarious scheme or another.

Paul must be having fantasies of hauling Obama before the Foreign Relations Committee and grilling him about his roll in getting the investigation of Trump going.

This would assure that Paul would be welcomed back to Mar-a-Lago after being banned from Palm Beach as the result of leading the opposition to Trump's trumped-up national border emergency. Remember that one?

Jilted Paul, shivering in Kentucky, sees Lindsay Graham hanging in the sun with the Trumps and it makes him crazy. He knows, though, that any attacks on the Clintons and Obamas gets one a ticket south on Air Force One.

Even if Paul has to caddy for his beloved Mr. President it also assures him some attention from Trump's people and a leg up on another (disastrous) run for the Oval.

Actually, I'd love for this to happen. Can you imagine the mincemeat Obama would make of that committee and especially the pathetic Paul? Just ask Mitt Romney what it's like to debate Obama. 

That would be worth the price of admission.

February 19, 2019--Master of Distraction

Being the master of distraction can cut two ways. With Trump, adept at this dubious art, it does and then some.

Take the National Emergency.

Trump was on the ropes. The Democrats in Congress (read Nancy Pelosi) were dug in. They were not going to give him even "one dollar" for his Wall. If he didn't agree to compromise (read "fold") the government would come to a halt and as with the December shutdown, Trump would lose politically and again see his poll numbers tank. They were heading then to the low 30s, pretty much for him a potential 2020 electoral disaster. 

The media covered this wall-to-wall. Even Trump's enablers on Fox News and talk radio (read Laura Ingraham and Rush Limbaugh) were restive and cranky, with Ann Coulter, hitting him literally below the belt, when she called him a "weenie."

So Trump rolled out his thus far most ambitious distraction--he made up and then declared a national emergency, knowing, but not really caring, that it will take forever to get through the courts and ultimately wind up with the Supremes who will likely declare it unconstitutional. Even Clarence Thomas might see things that way. Actually, ignore that--there is no way that he will. But expect Roberts to assure that minimally it will be a 5-4 decision.

In truth, for Trump, the more time it takes to work its way through the judicial system, the more we will be taking about nothing but,  which is his hope. It's about distraction and that's the definition of distraction--talking about something else.

As we saw on Friday the media immediately switched from obsessing about the battle Trump was having with Congress and began talking about only the emergency. To help them and to fill time they rolled out professors of constitutional law, former federal prosecutors, and Pulitzer Prize winning columnists. 

I said to Rona, if this keeps up for another two weeks I'm going to learn so much about the law that I'll be prepared to take the Bar Exam.

But there were a couple of sub-headlines buried on page 16 that ground on relentlessly. Stories that were not about the constitutional crisis but rather about Robert Mueller's investigation. 

At about the same time Trump was holding his rambling, sing-song news conference in the Rose Garden where all the questions were about the "emergency," Mueller prosecutors were in court calling for the presiding judge to sentence Trump's former campaign manager, Paul Manafort, to 24 years in prison. Effectively a life sentence for the 69 year-old Manafort. 

So expect that we will soon be back to paying 24/7 attention to Trump's legal troubles. Troubles exacerbated ironically by his use of the national emergency distraction because even some Republicans feel Trump by declaring it abused his power. Which is an impeachable offense. It was one of the charges against Nixon.

Thus, the default on all of this is the Mueller investigation. It is not going away. It is ultimately distraction proof.

For example, it is reported that Manafort is already singing like a canary and Roger Stone may be the next to flip.

January 21, 2019--BuzzardFeed

Late on Friday did you, like me, feel the air rushing into the balloon and then just as quickly flowing out?

I'm referring to the reaction to the BuzzFeed report that claimed President Trump explicitly instructed his fixer, Michael Cohen, to lie to Congress when he testified before them. 

If true (remember these two little words), this would have Trump pinned in the crosshairs of having committed at least two felonies--witness tampering (technically, suborning perjury) and conspiring to cover up evidence of a crime. Both almost automatically impeachable offenses. 

And so, the responsible media, numerous Democrats in Congress, and almost everyone I know immediately cheered that it was time to stop fooling around with investigations and such and get to the main event--impeachment--as there was now more than ample evidence that Trump was, yes, a crook.

Then a funny thing happened.

The Mueller investigation's spokesperson took the very unusual step of calling aspects of the BuzzFeed report into question. He usually says nothing about everything. So let me quote this--

BuzzFeed’s description of specific statements to the Special Counsel’s Office, and characterization of documents and testimony obtained by this office, regarding Michael Cohen’s Congressional testimony are not accurate.

Trump and his people were gleeful while I and most everyone I know moped. We had thought it was about to be all over and now Trump is taking a victory lap. The head of the witch hunt, he claimed, had just slipped him a get-out-of-jail card.

Not so fast.

Nothing of much consequence happened except a glimpse at the political leanings of most in the media and how beneficial this mess is to Trump as he struggles to save his skin--"You see, witch hunt, fake news, corrupt judiciary. It's all about Democrats trying to overturn the results of the last presidential election."

But I digress. Back to Mueller's spokesman. He did not say that Cohen hadn't lied and he didn't say that Trump is in the clear. Mueller also isn't saying that his office hasn't gathered powerful evidence about Trump and collusion with the Russians. Rather, it is and only is that BuzzFeed's characterization of documents and testimony obtained by the Mueller office are not fully accurate.

This means that Cohen may have lied to Congress (in fact, he already pled guilty to that) and might have documents that he shared that provide corroboration. Which, if true (if true), would be of great consequence.

But friends, there is not yet a smoking gun. We need to be patient, calm down. Grinding is the nature of investigations of this kind.

One further thing--

With Dems in control of the House and investigations about to pop up expect much more leaking as congressional staff learn more about what is to be learned. This is not entirely a bad thing even though much of what is leaked will be discredited. 

The reason it is a good thing, however, is that the more the public gets to know about what went on inside the Trump organization and campaign the less likely it will be that the new Attorney General, Robert Barr, if inclined (and I don't think he will be), will choose not to release the Mueller report as a good portion of it will in this informal way already have been made public and any attempts to obscure it will fail. The politics on the ground will not allow that.

January 8, 2019--Trump's Emergency

With the Mueller report likely to surface soon, Trump is experiencing his own private emergency and now he appears to want to drag the rest of us into a much larger, generalized one. A national emergency.

His is real, the one he has in store for us concocted.

At first, hearing about the possibility that Trump was finally trumped, with some Democratic friends I was gleeful.

"This only shows Trump's desperation," one said. Another, that "He's finally painted himself into a corner from which there is no way out."

But then I thought more about this. Yes, there may be no easy exit from the trap he clumsily set for himself, with Nancy Pelosi playing him subtly like a well-tuned piano. And on the other side, to his base, there is more trouble represented by Rush Limbaugh and Ann Coulter, both of whom warned that they would call his manhood into question if he caved in to the Dems by agreeing to reopen the government as part of a deal that would get him a pittance more for his cement, steel, tissue paper wall, fence, barrier, curtain, whatever. Call it anything you like. He just wanted out of the trap.

For the man whose ghostwriter wrote the book on the art of the deals it was looking bleak. No deal in sight. Just plunging poll numbers.

But then there is the potential game-changing idea for Trump to declare a national emergency--he would claim, as he did last night in an Oval Office speech, that the country is threatened by caravans of murderers, rapists, gang members, and drug dealers, augmented by tens of thousands of terrorists sneaking annually across the border. And, oh yes, there is a humanitarian crisis.

Never mind that there were just six (6) potential terrorists who were intercepted by the border patrol during the first half of 2018. Compounding this lie, Trump went on, claiming most of the opioids threatening our young people are coming though the same way--strapped to Mexican MS-13 gang members, while in fact they are hidden in and smuggled across the border by otherwise legitimate big-rig truckers.

If Trump declares a national emergency (and he has the power to do so), he will no longer need Congress (read Democrats in the House of Representatives) to pass a Homeland Security Department budget with $5.0 million allocated for the wall because he will just redeploy those and many more billions from the Pentagon budget (in an official emergency he likely has the power to do that as well as deploy soldiers to take the lead in building the wall).

By this scenario Nancy and Chuck will become irrelevant, Trump will look extra macho to Ann Coulter, Rush will be re-smitten, and too much of the public will think that Trump did the bold and right thing to protect us from all those dangerous brown people heading north on moonless nights.

And then the final irony--since it will cost $50 to $100 billion to build a 500-mile wall, because the money will have come from the Pentagon budget, Trump will demagog Chuck and Nancy into coming up with enough to replace it. The last thing Dems want is to appear wimpy when it comes to military spending. You know--"support our troops."

This strategy is so perversely brilliant that it could have come from only one source. Trump's current senior staff and advisors are incapable of thinking about how to get themselves out of a paper bag and so a play this multi-layered and intricate is beyond their devious capacities.

Therefore this has to be the idea of only one possible person. One evil genius--

Steve Bannon. Remember him?

The only problem--it won't work. 

Trump's favorables will continue to hover in the 35 percent range. His act is becoming boring to all except his relatively few dead-ender followers. Even Steve Bannon will not be able to think his way out of that.

December 19, 2018--True North

Heading north from Florida yesterday morning, on Jet Blue, I was able to watch on TV the news about former National Security Advisor Michael Flynn's sentencing.

Judge Emmet Sullivan was amazing. He wondered out loud why the Mueller investigators were recommending no prison time for Flynn though he "sold out his country" while on a parallel judicial tract two of Flynn's business associates who committed crimes less serious were facing between 10 and 20 years in incarceration.

Why might this be, the judge asked as did the commentators on the various cable news channels I flipped among.

Perhaps the cabin pressure got to me but the answer to why Flynn is likely to get off scot-free seems obvious--

This is because during the scant 24 days Flynn served as Trump's National Security Advisor he colluded directly and openly with Trump on devising strategies to mobilize Russian support for the newly sworn-in president. This after a campaign in which Flynn and Trump also colluded with the Russians in exchange for their massive support for the Trump presidential campaign.

Further, as evidence of Flynn's value as a witness against Trump and the resulting slap-on-the-wrist non-sentence he will receive in March in compensation for that, isn't it likely that Flynn, formerly Director of Defense Intelligence for the U.S. military and thus well versed in these matters, isn't it likely that he wore a wire and has Trump on tape directing him as to what to do to keep the Russians on board as his presidency began to roll out?

If true, this could make Flynn the most important Trump insider to have been flipped by Mueller's investigators.

As they say, stay tuned. 

December 10, 2018--Rats

This is not to contend that Republicans of varying stripes are rushing to abandon Trump as documents filed with the courts are becoming more explicit in their charges that Trump himself likely participated in felonies; though there is no rush yet of Trumpian rats deserting the ship, there are the first inklings, at a minimum, of some backing away from the thus-far Unbreachable One.

Up to now my two favorite examples of such self-serving behavior are Trump's lawyer, the increasingly preposterous Rudy Giuliani, mocking how long it took Trump to answer Mueller's soft ball written questions and Fox News's Tucker Carlson, who recently called Trump's competency to be president into question.

In an interview with The Atlantic, Rudy was quoted as saying that it was "a nightmare." It took three weeks rather than "what would normally take two days." For Rudy to acknowledge this represented a gutsy poke at Trump's fragile ego, especially when his intelligence is called into question. 

Then Tucker Carlson, a member, along with Laura Ingraham and Sean Hannity of Fox News's triumvirate of prime time apologists, in an interview with the Swiss magazine, Die Weltwoche, called Trump "Incapable of sustained focus." Another sensitive issue for Trump who has referred to himself as "a very stable genius."

Carlson said, "I don't think he's capable. I don’t think he’s capable of sustained focus. I don’t think he understands the system. I don’t think the Congress is on his side. I don’t think his own agencies support him." 

He added, it was "mostly Trump's fault that he hadn’t been able to deliver on his pledges, because “you really have to understand how the legislative process works and be very focused on getting it done.”

"Trump," he continued, "knows very little about the legislative process, hasn't learned anything, hasn't surrounded himself with people who can get [his agenda] done, hasn't done all the things you need to do. It's mostly his fault that he hasn't achieved those things" he promised to do during the campaign.

One more--as my mother would have put it, Chris "Crispy" is backing off a bit in his support of Trump, saying that the language that Mueller is using to outline the perfidies suggests that the investigators have a surplus of damning evidence.

And so this drip, drip, drip of criticism will be the model until the investigation produces a classic smoking gun. Then even wimpy Rand Paul may squeak something out. In the meantime, some of Trump's transactional "friends" are figuring out that if they are to have professional lives after he is no more they need to distance themselves from him or risk going down to the briny bottom with the USS Trump.

Tucker Carlson

December 3, 2018--Cozying Up

He wouldn't agree to fly the flag at the Capital at half mast and it took two days after he died for him to squeeze out a few words of condolence. 

So, after treating John McCain's death shabbily I've been wondering why Trump so quickly had appropriate words to offer about his passing and generously ordered Air Force One to fly to Houston to bring George H. W. Bush's body back to Washington. 

When thinking about Trump's true feelings about Bush and his sons "generous" and "appropriate" aren't words that come quickly to mind. 

This from a man who during the campaign mocked Jeb for having "low energy" and who said, "We need another Bush in office about as much as we need Obama to have a 3rd term." In Trump's political cosmology that's about as nasty as it gets--including Bush and Obama in the same sentence.

But there you are.

Could it be, then, that behaving with uncharacteristic moderation is Trump's way of thanking our 41st president for dying at just the right time to distract the nation and the media from the bad news for Trump emerging daily from the Mueller investigation?

Since for Trump it's always about himself, now that we know him as intimately as we do, this helps explain his unexpectedly thoughtful behavior. 

Though Trump resents and hates his betters (a very long list that includes all former presidents except Jackson, about whom he in fact knows nothing), he has an instinct for spotting his betters and for our outer-borough president that includes the Kennedys, Obamas, and Bushes. With each he has a complicated hate-love relationship. 

Trump so craves positive attention that by thrusting himself into the events that are following H. W.'s death he likely hopes that by cozying up some of the personal characteristics that made 43 respected might rub off on him. 

This is a case of legitimization by association.

The tributes flowing in about Bush do not fit Trump's character but since he is not someone to be shy about pushing his way into all available spotlights, during the services expect Trump to be on camera more than anyone other than Bush family members.

In any list of Bush qualities, Trump palls by comparison. 

Among the many things being said about George H. W. Bush, he was thought to be temperate, inclusive, generous, bipartisan, thoughtful, informed, collaborative, modest, ethical, graceful, gracious, moderate, self-effacing, playful, and deferential. 

He was far from perfect and he should not be over-adulated now that he is gone, but even without the inclination to forget limitations and faults after one's passing, this still sounds like the real George H. W. Bush. 

Inverting this list, where generous becomes greedy and modest become narcissistic, would produce an accurate picture of the man who now occupies the former president's chair in the Oval Office.

Then, by this week's end Mueller will be back on the case and places for Trump to hide from culpability will be even more limited. Also, Bush's example won't be able to help protect Trump from himself. In fact, attempting to claim he is worthy of sharing in our former presidents' example Trump will find that the spotlight not only illuminates but can also scorch.

November 29, 2018--Triple Agent Paul Manafort

Paul Manafort may be all the bad things he has pled guilty to and even worse all that juries have found him guilty of, but though he may not be the shiniest penny, in regard to things important to him (money and power, especially money) he may actually be brilliant.

For someone so seemingly unimpressive he somehow managed to amass millions--tens or hundreds of millions--mainly by finding ways to be of serious service to some of the world's sleaziest operatives in some of the most complicated and corrupt regions of the world. Especially in parts of the former Soviet Union, more specifically, primarily in Ukraine.

He also managed for a while to put on a glittering show of opulent living, with houses and apartments in Manhattan (including in Trump Tower), East Hampton, and Brooklyn as well as his reputed million-dollar bespoke sharkskin wardrobe.

But now we see him being wheeled in and out of courtrooms, looking pathetic in an orange prison jumpsuit, seemingly brought low. But who knows, considering his slimy skills, he may be hatching a way to fool almost everyone and manage to walk away largely unscathed.

This could be because, after working in Eastern Europe where nothing it was it seems and there is someone scheming to cut you down at every turn, he has so mastered the art of subterfuge that he may have found a way to work for the Russians (Putin) and Trump while pretending to be working for Robert Mueller. 

In other words he may have figured out how to operate as a triple agent, playing these three sides against each other. 

And through one of the seams that connect these pieces Manafort may find a way to slither out to some version of freedom.

Working with the Russians, Manafort has more goods on Trump to market that are essential puzzle pieces that fit with the covert material the Russians already have on Trump--remember that dossier and what it allegedly contains about Trump's escapades with, among other transgressions, prostitutes in Moscow. If Manafort working as a secret agent for the Russians is true, think of the resulting additional leverage they have on Trump. It helps explain Trump's wimpy behavior when it comes to anything Putin.

Working concurrently for Trump as his campaign manager (my favorite part--for free) he managed to keep the Trump-Russia collusion going while on the surface doing all the basic gofer things campaign managers routinely do like getting a platform written that everyone can agree to and ultimately ignore.

And then, with Robert Mueller, the very smartest of his handlers, Manafort seemingly turned the tables on Trump to become a valuable resource to the special counsel and his investigators. In that role, other than Trump's boys who know all the family felonies, by ratting on Trump and his inner-inner circle, Manafort could help Mueller connect all the illegal dots while auditioning for the part of star witness before grand juries, congressional committees, and eventual impeachment hearings and criminal trials. For these services Manafort could expect to be rewarded by not having to do any jail time and might even wind up with his own show on Fox News.

That seemed to be where things were headed until a few days ago when Manafort was discovered to have been lying to Mueller's team. As a result Mueller puled the plug on Manafort, leaving the investigation bereft of anyone who could testify with direct knowledge about the BIG picture.

Furthermore, in his role as a secret agent mole within the Mueller operation, a few days ago we learned from Trump's lawyers that Manafort's lawyers have been colluding with them, leaking to Trump's people inside information about the workings and strategies of the Mueller probe. 

When it comes to Manafort so much is complicated and seemingly self-inflicted. 

So much so that most of the print and cable legal analysts are left scratching their heads, frustrated that they can't seem to make sense of Manafort's recent moves--lying to Mueller and his people after making a sweet deal to get a reduced sentence by cooperating truthfully. Apparently  as a result of lying to Mueller, Manafort seems to be facing at least a decade of hard jail time.

It could turn out that Manafort blew it. But it may mean he will be pardoned with gratitude by Trump for undercutting arch-villain Mueller (he will be pardoned in a matter of just weeks) and figure out a way to skulk back to Ukraine where he can live out the rest of his natural life in whatever splendor Ukraine has to offer. This assumes, of course, that he will find a way to keep from getting killed by a Putin hit squad.

In Manafort's line of work, you win some and you lose some.

November 20, 2018--Jack's Take

"I know, you think I've been ignoring you"--that had occurred to me--"Well, I have been. Since Election Day." Jack was on the line. 

"How," Jack said. "did Obama put it after the 2010 midterms? That he and the Democrats took a 'shellacking'? Well, that just happened to us. Republicans in general and Trump and his people specifically. As he put it, it was as if he was on the ballot. Which is true. He made the election all about him and try as he might to spin what happened as a big win it was a disaster."

"I agree with this but frankly I'm surprised you are feeling this way. You prided yourself for having been the first person in town to put out Trump lawn signs. And the first person I know who very early on--when he seemed like a joke--to have predicted that not only would Trump win the nomination but also that he would win the election."

"Well let me then be the first Trump person you know to predict that if he runs for reelection (and that is not a certainty) he will lose. Except for two things."

"What pray tell are those?"

"Number one, if you guys nominate Bernie or, number two, you nominate Warren. Two losers. Even a weakened Trump would easily beat either one of them. They're going to win Pennsylvania or Ohio or Michigan or Florida or Wisconsin? States that the ultimate winner needs to carry? Get real. This is not going to happen with a candidate who will be almost 80 in 2020, who's from Brooklyn originally and now from Vermont, a socialist no less? Or a Harvard professor who's from Massachusetts? From my perspective it should only happen."

"I don't entirely disagree with you," I said, "The Dems this time around were really smart about who they ran for Congress. Military veterans, some in the right places who are social conservatives, a few deficit hawks, some who go to church regularly, and others who support the Second Amendment. Up in Maine one of the Democrats running for the House--and who won, Jared Golden--ran a whole bunch of commercials that included video of him on a rifle range."

"Yeah, they ran a lot of Republicans who pretended to be Democrats."

"Not true," I said, "the people I am talking about are mainly Democratic moderates and they appealed to a lot of people who in the past were called 'Reagan Democrats' because for decades they had voted the straight Democratic ticket but switched to vote for Reagan after the Democrats began to run candidates who were too elitist, too liberal, too out of touch with average people. Like Michael Dukakis."

I continued, "But what about the Mueller investigation? What happens if he issues a report that exposes all sorts of criminal activity carried out by Trump and his family?"

"That would be the best thing that could happen to us."

"What?" I was incredulous, "It's only 10:30 in the morning but have you been drinking?"

"No, and I'm taking my meds." He chuckled, sounding like the old swaggering Jack.

"I'm glad to hear that, but deal with the issue--what will happen when Mueller exposes all sorts of crimes--big ones--backed up with  emails and recordings of cell phone calls and the corroborating testimony of Michael Cohen, Paul Manafort, and a half dozen others? I fail to see how that could that be good news from your perspective."

"Look, it's obvious that all Republican in Congress and the right-wing media are terrified that if they say anything critical of Trump--forget negative--he will support people when they are up for reelection to go after them in primaries. No matter what he does a core of Republicans, maybe half of them, will stick with him and vote as he tells them to vote. Even, remember, if he kills someone on Fifth Avenue. In other words, Trump would primary anyone who says a critical thing about him. At least that's what has them shaking in their boots." He paused to hear my reaction.

"I need to run in a few minutes so could you speed this up?"

"You're back in New York, the Big Satan, for a couple of days and already you're in a rush."

"Well, I am. I happen to have a doctor's appointment."

"Nothing too serious, I hope."

"I'll let you know the next time we talk. But, please, finish your thought about Mueller."

"Simple--his report will give these quivering Republicans political cover."

"I think I see where you're heading with this."

"If Mueller provides conclusive evidence of high crimes and misdemeanors, Republicans will begin to back away from Trump, claiming their behavior--behavior they look forward to displaying since softening up their rhetoric is the only way to save themselves. They will say, 'What are we supposed to do with this mountain of evidence? Ignore it?' They have no choice but to back away from Trump while absolving themselves of blame. They might even fool enough people to win some primaries, rescuing themselves because by 'reluctantly' (put that in quotes) accepting what Mueller reports they will be able to pretend that they were reluctant Trump supporters all along. It will remove what wind is left in Trump's sails. It will be like hiding behind Mueller's skirt. This is why the ever-slippery Lindsay Graham is sounding as if he is uncoupling himself from Trump. He'll soon be on the lookout to find someone new to cuddle up to."

"I can see all of this happening. But why, from your perspective, is this good news? With your boy, Trump being brought down?"

"Here's the dirty little secret." Jack lowered his voice as if not wanting to be overheard. "Because Trump is being exposed as a loser. His whole thing has been to present himself as a winner. Remember during the campaign he kept saying, 'There will be so much winning you'll get tired of winning?'"

"I remember that."

"Well, after Election Day and the Mueller report he won't be able to get away with saying that anymore. Seeing nearly 40 Republican seats in the House flip to Democrats doesn't look like winning. Especially to Republicans in Congress who care only about their version of winning--getting reelected. Wait and see what will happen to Republican senators up for reelection in 2020 if they stay rafted up with Trump."

"But you already have him either not running in two years or if he does defeated by a Dem other than Sanders or Warren. So you have me totally confused about what you think or would like to see happen. Not what Republicans in general or members of Congress are up to. Let me put it to you directly--do you want Trump to be reelected or defeated? Or maybe just disappear?"

Half ignoring me, Jack said, "After last Tuesday there's blood in the water and everyone in Congress knows that. The Mueller report will just be the clincher. But crucial nonetheless since the Republicans can use it to justify their own independence from Trump and will not need to depend on riding his coat tales."

"But," Jack continued, still hushed, "Here's the secret--Trump will lose even to Elizabeth Warren."

"What?" It's that bad for him? I thought you said she or Bernie would lose? Now I'm totally confused."

"To tell you the truth I was trying to make myself feel better. I wasn't thinking things through. I was trying to begin to reconcile myself to a very unpleasant situation. The prospect of Warren or Sanders in the White House."

"But, remember me and my lawn signs," Jack said, "In the prediction business I have a pretty good track record. Though next time around things won't turn out so good."

"Again, what are you predicting? We're on the phone but I can feel you smiling. Like you're playing with me. And now I have to go, without enough time to be able to figure out what you're saying about your own position."

"Good luck with the doctor," he said, laughing and hanging up.

November 15, 2018--Trump Agonistes

In Trumpworld every day provides the opportunity to encounter something so bizarre that it can be said that we never witnessed such behavior before. 

His funk in Paris last weekend is a case in point. 

He clearly didn't want to be there for the 100th anniversary of the armistice that ended World War One. To make matters worse, it was on the very same weekend he had in mind for his own Soviet-style military parade in Washington replete with nuclear missiles trundling down Pennsylvania Avenue.

In France he cut out on events, including one in a drizzle at an American military cemetery. He also didn't show up for other scheduled meetings and left a day early to, some cynics said, get back to the security of his White House bedroom and Fox News 24/7.

It was speculated in the Los Angeles Times and Washington Post that he is unraveling as the Mueller probe is closing in on him and some of his closest advisors, likely including members of his family. (Which son or son-in-law will be the first to flip and agree to become a Mueller witness?)

It didn't help, the press speculated, that the full extent and implications of the results of the recent midterm election finally dawned on Trump and he had no spin handy to deflect from the trouncing he and congressional Republicans experienced. 

It finally became clear to him that the Democrats, who will control the House, will immediately launch investigations of his potentially criminal conduct both before and while serving as president. So assuming he is able to shut down the Mueller investigation (even his new best friend Lindsay Graham says he won't be able to) Adam Schiff and other committee-chairs-in-waiting are licking their legislative chops

Is it any wonder that he hasn't been able to sleep and wants to hide in his bedroom with the blankets pulled up over his head.

And so it was not only in Paris that he withdrew from public view but back in Washington too.

He apparently was so shut off from the world outside his bubble that his wife, Melania, who couldn't get his attention on a matter of some urgency to her, felt she had to plant stories on Fox News, knowing he was watching, to elicit a response.

The strangest was the leak from her office earlier this week about deputy national security advisor, Mira Ricardel. Apparently still smarting from some of the fiascos associated with her trip last month to "shithole" countries in Africa (which was really more about showing off her tropical wardrobe than anything smacking of diplomacy), Mrs. Trump, who never met her, blamed the whole mess on Ricardel who, she claimed, didn't arrange appropriate seating for accompanying journalists and, I am certain, her junketing tag-along New York friends, she tried to talk to her husband about it but he was so tuned out that that didn't work and so the First Lady had her spokesperson issue a public statement saying Ricardel no longer "deserved the honor" to work in "this White House."

When the statement was broadcast on Fox News Trump finally noticed it and apparently just now arranged for some flunky to get Ricardel to pack up her stuff and await "another assignment." An assignment of the same sort, I assume, they arranged for Omarosa.

Melania Trump On Safari

November 13, 2018--Pour It On Mr. President

I know this sounds counterintuitive but I welcome the appointment of Matt (The Hulk) Whittaker to be acting attorney general.

I love the idea that he is totally unqualified to hold that office for even a day. I love the fact that he is somehow implicated in a scheme to defraud clients who were paying a company for which he was an official a fee to secure patents they never received. (Sound familiar?) I especially love that he has been a flunky for Trump for at least two years and seems eager to do his bidding, including and perhaps especially shutting down the Mueller investigation. 

I love this since even firing the special counsel will not thwart the investigation, only further sully Whitaker and Trump by piling on additional counts of obstruction of justice. With Democrats about to control the House, this guarantees that Mueller's report in one way or another will become public and lead to Trump's impeachment. If the Pentagon Papers leaked out so will the ultimate Mueller report. 

And I love the fact that Trump is in open warfare with journalists, acting like a bully and in the case of black women exposing his deep racism. Wouldn't it be great, I am thinking if he would ban a few more from the White House.

To keep his opposition motivated, the worse the better.

On the international front, I like the way Trump behaved over the weekend in France at the gathering of world leaders to mark the 100th anniversary of the end of the First World War.

It was perfect that he arrived late and left early. (As did his best friend and handler, Vladimir Putin.) Since the gathering was not about him, he saw no purpose in being there and was not shy about letting everyone take note of his petulance. 

I can't tell you, though, how happy I am that he did come to Paris and am overjoyed that he didn't show up for a memorial gathering at a cemetery for American soldiers killed in action, claiming that since it was drizzling he would have to be driven to the site rather than helicoptered in and that it was too foggy even for that.

I suspect that the real reason Trump skipped the ceremony was because if he got wet his orange-dyed face might run. Also, in his twisted cosmology, as a perverse commander-in-chief, he deems men killed in action "losers," not unlike John McCain was a loser because he was captured. He likes only winners such as himself who couldn't hold onto the House of Representatives. 

I do not need to speculate what veterans might be feeling about this draft dodger who didn't serve in Vietnam because he got five deferments and allegedly had a bone spur in one of his feet. But if as a result fewer vets vote for him in 2020, so much the better.

Do not worry that the alliances he is undermining can never be reestablished. Quite the contrary. Our true allies know the problem is Trump, not America nor the American people. Days after he is defeated two years from now French, German, and English leaders will be be on the first flight out to meet with the president-elect to begin the reconciliation process.

The more Trump does things of this kind the better it is. And so I say, bring it on. 

Please Mister President, keep up your outrageous behavior because the more you do things of this kind the more likely it is that you will not be reelected. Keep up the hissy fits and white supremacist talk because the more you behave this way the more likely you lose.

That's the next prize to keep eyes on. We did good work last week in regard to the House and local elections around the country, but that was the intermediate prize. The big one is now teed up.

Acting Attorney General Matt Whitaker

This is my 3,500 blog posting. The first one appeared August 26, 2005.

September 19, 2018--Trump On Thorazine

Whatever meds the White House staff are lacing into Trump's Big Macs I want to get me some.

Last week former Trump campaign manager and money launderer, Paul Manafort went down, pleading guilty to dozens of felonies as part of a flip deal with the Mueller investigation, effectively joining the prosecution team in its probe of Trump's criminal empire.

It is now obvious that shortly after the midterms Mueller will move to indite First Son, Donald Jr, and First Son-In-Law, Jared Kushner, with Manafort, by then Mueller's favorite canary, chirping about the true nature of what went on in Trump Tower and Trump and his family's ongoing dealings with Russia, especially Russian oligarch money cleansed and passed through as bailout loans to Trump through that global financial laundromat, Deutsche Bank.  

One would have expected a torrent or vicious tweets from Trump, savaging everyone from Manafort to Mueller to Jeff Sessions to Hillary Clinton and Barack Obama.

But, no, since Friday, there has not been even one hot tweet. Or, for that matter, a cool one. Nothing whatsoever about Manafort flipping. Not even a reiteration of the preposterous idea that flipping should be illegal.

Then there is the response to the accusation that Supreme Court nominee, Brett Kavanaugh, more than 35 years ago, attempted to rape a 17 year-old girl. From a man who devoted so much effort attempting to stifle women from telling their stories about their sexual escapades with him, including by paying them hush money, to say the least, it comes as a surprise that Trump yesterday sounded almost normal when he said that we should respect Kavanaugh's accuser's right to tell her story, "to be heard," even if it delays by a week or so a vote to confirm his lifetime appointment to the highest court in the land.

There is one single truth that is revealed by both of these responses--Trump is scared. Terrified. As he should be. The circle is closing, the end is near, and he knows it.

Anything is now possible. Including this semblance of reasonableness which to Trump proceeds political self-imolation or surrender.

March 1, 2018--President Pence

Yesterday I began to worry about what kind of president Mike Pence will be.

Among other things what will it be like having a genuine religious fanatic in the Oval Office after the current narcissist-in-chief resigns. 

I worried that Pence may do more harm by actually being effective, with "effective" measured by what he will be able to get done by strokes of the executive-order pen as well as through legislation--enough members of Congress will be so relieved that Trump and his enablers packed up and left that they gleefully will vote to pass bills to allow prayer in schools as well as arm the teachers leading those prayers.

I know, I really do, that contemplating this is premature and overblown--I don't want to jinx it--but after eternally-loyal Hope Hicks up and quit, beaten-down Jeff Sessions hit back after Trump savaged him again on Twitter, calling it "disgraceful" that Sessions did not do enough to investigate Obama's alleged illegal surveillance of the Trump campaign and transition, feeling safe to do so because he sensed that Trump has been substantially diminished, I'm imagining Pence in charge because, in addition to the above, Jared Kushner is a politically deadman walking, and, above all else, Robert Mueller allowed the news to leak out yesterday that Trump is now officially a target of his widespread investigation--that he may be indictable for colluding with the Russians and leading the obvious obstruction of justice--for these reasons and more, time is running out for Trump, running out faster than senior staff of the White House are running out on the incredibly shrinking presidency (Kellyanne Conway is the latest from the inner circle apparently about to leave), for these reasons and more this is why I've begun to think about what a Pence presidency will look like.

To move the process along here's what I think Trump should do. My two-cents--

Surprise everyone by holding true to all the things he put on the table yesterday before congressional leaders regarding what to do to implement gun controls. Follow Dick Sports' and Walmart's example by raising to 21 the age required to buy all types of guns from 22 pistols to semi-automatic weapons; require "hard" background checks for all gun purchases, including those through gun shows; provide money to enable schools to become "hard targets"; consider limiting the sale of military-style rifles, especially to the mentally disturbed; and forget the crazy idea to arm teachers.

Work hard at this during his remaining time in office and not by tomorrow abandon the agenda to the NRA.

Then, return to the deal that a bipartisan congressional group agreed to last month that peeked Trump's interest for 48 hours before he jettisoned it and the DACA youth it was intended to legalize. It was a potential piece of legislation that had a good chance of being enacted into law. Many Republicans as well as most Democrats want to dispose of this politically toxic issue so take advantage of that. 

By doing this Trump would leave behind something of an actual legacy. Not just the obverse of everything Obama stood for and accomplished. 

Thus fortified by history, before things with Mueller get worse for Trump, as they now rapidly will, Trump should declare victory and join Omarosa, Kellyanne, Hope, and Ivanka wherever they settle. 

If Gerald Ford who succeeded Richard Nixon after he resigned the presidency claimed when he assumed the presidency that as a result "Our long national nightmare is over," Trump justly would be able to say his long nightmare is over.

Then we know what happened to Ford after he pardoned Nixon--in 1976 he lost the presidential election to Jimmy Carter. If this is a harbinger that would mean we'd have to endure President Pence for just a couple of years.

But we will be able to quote what Gerald Ford also said on the day he assumed the presidency--"Our constitution works."

January 19, 2018--Lock Them Up

Announced Friday was the first in at least three chapters about how Russians influenced the 2016 presidential election. 

This report from the Mueller investigation and the Department of Justice did not contain a "smoking gun."

That means no one from the Trump campaign, including President Trump, was accused (yet) of knowingly playing a direct part in the dozens of efforts to derail Hillary Clinton's campaign while boosting his.

But a smoking gun, in a second or third chapter, will soon be forthcoming.

The second chapter will show the many ways in which Trump's people wittingly were involved, likely including Trump himself. A third chapter, knitting everything together, will reveal how money was the root of all evil that led to this widespread malfeasance--how Russians indirectly and directly laundered oligarchs' ill-gotten gains (including from Putin) through western banks such as Deutsche Bank, which in turn loaned it to the likes of Trump (and the Kushners) to bail out their failing real estate deals.

Expect in these two chapters to hear directly from the perpetrators themselves as perhaps up to a dozen have been cooperating, for months working undercover for the Mueller investigation, wearing a wire, in exchange for not being tried, convicted, and sent to jail.

Thus far, some of this is unintentionally ironic.

For example, we learn how pervasive and effective Russian interference was in the 2016 campaigns and likely continues to be, including as we grind toward the 2018 midterm elections.

Their use of social media and their direct involvement in dirty tricks undoubtedly helped tip the election to Trump. By working strategically how could the Russians not have turned the few thousand votes Trump needed in purple states (which they targeted) such as Ohio, Michigan, Wisconsin, Virginia, Florida, and Pennsylvania to build his winning margin in the Electoral College?

This means (the irony) that the Russian campaign in 2016 was more effective than Hillary's--Trump won with Russian support; she lost for the same reason.

Rattled by the implication that he is an illegitimate president Trump spent the weekend off the golf course (too windy) attacking via tweets those he perceives to be his enemies from Congressman Adam Schiff (who he called a "monster") to his own National Security Advisor, General H.R. McMaster to . . . Oprah, who Trump says is "insecure".

Making what the Russians were up to vivid, Mueller, in this first series of indictments revealed how Russian operatives showed up at campaign events, including in West Palm Beach, FL with a flatbed truck on which there was a simulated jail cell within which there was "incarcerated" an actress dressed in an orange prison jumpsuit pretending to be Hillary Clinton.

Mueller is now moving quickly, wanting to complete as much of his work as possible before Trump attempts to fire Deputy Attorney General Rod Rosenstein in an attempt to shut down the investigation.

None of this will work. Friday witnessed the beginning of the end of the Trump presidency.

January 29, 2018--Reiterating

With the Mueller investigation at full boil, with so many moving parts, it is again time to step back and look for a big picture that links most if not all the seemingly disconnected pieces.

Previously, I've turned to Ockham's Razor, employing that ancient philosophical tool that seeks the simplest but most comprehensive explanation when confronted with seemingly unrelated, even contradictory elements.

In Trump's case we have just this week seen the White House and the Trump enablers at Fox News and Republicans in Congress in almost complete disarray.

There has been a sustained campaign in general to undermine the credibility of the FBI and Robert Mueller's investigation in particular. There has been the absurd charge attributed to the president that the reason Mueller is incapable of being fair is because of a dispute about membership fees at one of Trump's golf courses! And we have been hearing about a secret Illuminati society within the FBI leading efforts to depose Trump and his administration.

And of course there is the revelation that back in June Trump ordered the White House counsel, Donald McGhan, to fire Mueller, even though he does not have the power to do so. He in turn threatened to resign (in a rare burst of integrity from among the Trump people) if forced to proceed.

There is more, much more. All of it, though, made coherent with the help of the 14th century Franciscan friar--

Trump's desperate behavior is because ONLY HE KNOWS THE FULL TRUTH AND EXTENT OF HIS OWN INVOLVEMENT IN RUSSIA-GATE, and because that truth is so devastating, he is frantically grasping at anything that he feels can rescue him from this self-made crisis.

Trump alone knows the full and truthful story of his and his minions' involvement in colluding with and encouraging the Russian government to intervene on his behalf in the 2016 election.

Only Trump knows fully what he and his acolytes have done to cover up, to obstruct their malfeasance. What he and they have done to obstruct justice.

Trump is the only one who knows all the details of Trump, Inc's business involvements with Russia, including the massive sums of money that were likely laundered in the process.

Trump alone knows the truth about what is included in the infamous dossier. Not the Clinton campaign's minimal involvement, which they have attempted to generalize, but Trump's business dealings in Russia as well as his possible involvement with Russian prostitutes.

Only Trump knows what his children and son-in-law have been up to in regard to everything from conspiratorial activities to money laundering to attempts to subvert justice.

Only he knows the full story of his adulterous affair with pornstar "Stormy Daniels" and what appears to be Melania understandably leaving his side.

Again, the panicky behavior we are witnessing is the result of the truth about Trump's involvements, the full extent of which he and only he knows.

It's enough to make one crazy. And that is what we are seeing. But the end is near. Quite near.