September 30, 2019--Ukraine Fall Out

We should stay focused on the House of Representatives' move toward the impeachment of Donald Trump. That is obviously the most important and promising news of the last two, three years.

But also of consequence is the effect it will have on the 2020 election. Concern that it could tip things in Trump's direction was the primary reason Nancy Pelosi was so reluctant to proceed. She remembered how Bill Clinton's approval rating went up while his impeachment unfolded.

So what should we expect?

Unlike Trump, Clinton was in his second term and the economy was booming. Not as currently primarily for wealthy people. So, I am not expecting to see Trump's number rise. In fact, in just the one week since Ukraine Gate was exposed they appear to be plummeting.

Expect then to see Trump take a political hit. Enough, perhaps, to upend his reelection chances.

What then about the Democrats?

I am anticipating that as we get deeper into all that was going on between Ukrainian officials and oligarchs and Trump, his children Giuliani, Paul Manafort (remember him?), and many others there will be much more fall out. Ukraine, after all, is primarily a place known as a money laundry.

Fairly or not, therefore, expect to see Joe Biden driven from the race.

Again, fairly or not expect to see his son Hunter Biden dragged deeper into the mess. Does anyone believe that if his last name wasn't Biden he would have been invited to serve on the board of Burma Holdings, a Ukrainian natural gas producer?

He served on that board from 2014 to 2019, which happens to be among the same years that his father was Barack Obama's Vice President. That didn't hurt his employment prospects.

We know that Trump will hammer away at this. Who could expect him not too. It is teed up for him.

And so Joe Biden will have to leave the race because Democratic voters really do care about draining the swamp. And to make the case that Trump made the swap swampier, Biden needs to not be our nominee. He is already being characterized as part of the problem. By Democratic activists. And as a result he has little chance of being nominated. 

By remaining in the race he will only further sully his reputation.

The main political beneficiary? That's easy--Elizabeth Warren.

December 18, 2018--The Swamp Creature

When the swamp is mention these days, the swamp itself, metaphorically, is claimed to be the habitat of predatory people (mainly the political class and the media) who are engaged in evil practices. 

Denizens of the swamp are described as pestilential and thus dangerous. This fictive swamp thus needs to be drained as if it were a toxic dump while, ironically, actual toxic waste sites, Super Fund sites, by Trump and his administration are no longer perceived to be threats to the environment.

They have given swamps an undeserved bad reputation.

Focused as I tend to be on the politics of the figurative swamp referred to by Trump and his allies, I have lost sight of what characterizes a real swamp.

So here, from National Geographic, is what a swamp actually is--

Because the young of many marine animals find food and shelter in swamps, these wetlands are sometimes called the nurseries of the ocean. Many ocean species enter coastal wetlands to spawn. Fish swim into salt marshes to lay their eggs. When the eggs hatch, the young find food and some protection in swamp grasses or among tree roots. Other species spawn in the ocean, and the young swim into the wetlands and live there until they mature.

Swamps are among the most valuable ecosystems on Earth. They act like giant sponges or reservoirs. When heavy rains cause flooding, swamps and other wetlands absorb excess water, moderating the effects of flooding. Swamps also protect coastal areas from storm surges that can wash away fragile coastline. Saltwater swamps and tidal salt marshes help anchor coastal soil and sand. 

Swamp ecosystems also act as natural water treatment plants, filtering wastes and purifying water. When excess nitrogen and other chemicals wash into swamps, vegetation there absorb and use the chemicals. 

So, by definition, swamps are essential to life on our planet.

About one thing, though, Trump is right--there are many bad operatives in the government and the nation overall. But the most essential truth for the man who has sullied the notion of swamp as he has so many other things vital to life--is that if there is something that needs draining it is him and his corrupt henchmen.