April 2, 2018--Sabre Rattling

One good thing about the resumption of the Cold War is that we'll finally get to see what if any goods Putin and the Russians have on Donald Trump.

During the entire 2016 campaign and the first year of his administration Trump had nothing but positive and admiring things to say about the Russian leader. For someone who was attempting to project a tough-guy, commander-in-chief image, in regard to Putin, Trump came off as quite a wimp. 

Some said that Trump the crypto-totalitarian had genuine admiration for how the Russian strongman governed. He was a role model for the draft-dodging Trump. 

Others claimed that Trump was blackmailed into overlooking Putin's dictatorial methods because the Russians knew about Trump's history of money laundering, including direct Russian involvement, and sexual peccadilloes. There is that titillating BuzzFeed dossier hanging over Trump's head that allegedly alludes to Trump's bad-boy behavior during the Miss Universe pageant in Moscow in 2013.

In response to Trump's obsequious behavior, Putin for the past two years has made a version of nice. Unlike with Obama, who he wouldn't even pretend to look in the eye, Putin has had many flattering things to say about candidate and then president Trump, calling him, for example, a "genius"; while Trump cooed back, "He has done a really great job of outsmarting our country." 

A seeming bromance. And perhaps, as unlikely as it might seem, some speculated that with Trump and Putin maybe actually getting along, there would be the opportunity for a genuine reset in Russian-American relations.

But then the Russians poisoned Russian ex-spy, Sergei Skripal, and his daughter in London in early May. Seizing on this to revive her collapsing political fortunes, British prime minister Theresa May somehow manged to get NATO allies to condemn and sanction Russia. Diplomats were expelled from England, France, Germany, and a host of other western European countries. Leading the world in expressing outrage, May even got Trump to agree to send home 60 Russian diplomat/spies and shut down the Russian consulate in Seattle.

Wounded by this, the Russians retaliated, expelling equivalent numbers of our diplomats and spies and shutting down our consulate in St. Petersburg. It was Cold War deja-vu all over again.

And to make his actions emphatic, Putin had the Russian military fire off one of their newest Satan 2 intercontinental ballistic missiles (ICBMs) that has the capacity, they claim, to carry up to 10 miniaturized hydrogen bombs.

So now we not only have North Korea launching missiles that can reach America, we have the Russians doing the same, claiming that their missiles are "invulnerable" to American defenses.

If you're having trouble sleeping nights, this may be the reason. If you have kids in school, expect them soon to be diving under their desks during "take-cover" drills.

And if Trump gives in to his aides (read, John Bolton) who, the New York Times reported, are calling for "tougher Russia policies"--presumably increasing economic sanctions against Putin and his billionaire cronies--expect Putin to reply tit-for-tat. 

Then, if we get deeper into things, such as killing more Russian "volunteers" fighting in Syria, if he has salacious stuff about Trump, expect Putin to begin to leak it out.

That will manage to push Stormy Daniels off the front pages.

February 15, 2017--All Roads Led to Moscow

At the elevator yesterday morning we ran into a neighbor, Jeff, who we hadn't seen for some time. He was wearing a big button that proclaimed, "New Yorkers Love Muslims."

I tried to restrain myself but passed him a skeptical look.

"I get that look all the time," he laughed in his usual light-spirited way, "But most people agree when I tell them where all this is headed." I knew what he meant by this.

"Yes?"

"All roads lead to Moscow."

He has a tendency to be enigmatic and though he preferred his utterings to just hang in the air, in spite of that, I asked, "Say a little more."

He shared his most enigmatic smile and said as he stepped into the elevator, "Think about it. It will be obvious once you do so."

"What do you think he means?" back in our apartment I asked Rona.

"He's very political and maybe he's referring to the Michael Flynn situation. You know, how Trump's head of the NSC was taking on the phone to the Russian ambassador before the Inauguration about who-knows-what."

"I suspect nothing good. And it would make some sense of Jeff's Moscow reference. But knowing Jeff, I suspect there's more to it than that."

"It appears that what Flynn did was pretty bad. Apparently the FBI interviewed him about this just a day after the Inauguration. Clearly they had been tracking these phone calls during the transition if not sooner. Probably have transcripts."

"And told the Trump transition team that the nature of the calls were such to suggest that Flynn might be a blackmail target."

"This is all so unbelievable," Rona said, "We're not even a month into the Trump presidency and already we've had a NSC head fired, an FBI investigation apparently still ongoing, other members of the Trump inner circle battling for primacy and his attention, but still I am wondering about Jeff's cryptical words. In the past, though he can be a little strange, he turns out to be right more often than not."

"What may really be going on here, and could explain among other things why Trump appeared to know about the Flynn phone calls at least three weeks ago he seemingly sat on the information until more about the situation began to leak out from the media. Then, he finally acted."

"Well, there's one explanation, one more ominous thing that could help unpack that Jeff may be thinking."

"Go on."

"That the real explanation, the real bottom line is that this is not primarily about Flynn and the Russians. Maybe it's about . . ."

I interrupted, "Are you saying maybe this goes higher within the new administration?"

"That's what I'm thinking and saying."

"I think I'm following you."

"Remember that famous 27-page memorandum that was appended to one of the early intelligence briefings Trump received? About alleged accusations that Trump seriously misbehaved when he was in Moscow for the 2013 Miss Universe pageant? About him with prostitutes among other things? And as a result the Russians have the goods on him. That he's the one subject to blackmail. Trump."

"That's my surmise," Rona said, "It could explain Trump's ignoring the information about Flynn. Hoping it would blow over and whatever the Russians have about Trump himself would fade away."

"And hasn't it been reliably reported recently that though at first what's in the BuzzFeed leaked dossier could not be verified and was thought to be raw information gathering, that now some close to the ongoing FBI investigation are saying that some or even much of it is looking more-and-more credible."

"If that turns out to be true, the road to Moscow Jeff mentioned could be the road that Trump is on. Flynn then may turn out to be a minor player. Maybe even a witness. The real catch would be Trump. If that were to happen, it would be the biggest scandal in presidential history. Watergate, Monica Lewinsky, and JFK and his mistresses would turn out to be footnotes in any books about White House miscreants."

"I can't believe we're saying these things," I said.

"And it may turn out that Jeff's not so crazy."

October 4, 2016--Donald: Alone In Trump Tower

Richard Nixon to me is the most fascinating of presidents.

Not best, not "near great" as historians rank chief executives and, as president, but if one can set Watergate aside, in many ways--with Russia and especially China--he was quite effective.

But, yes, it turned out he was a "crook," and during the last two years of his presidency, as his life crashed down upon him, like Lear, he raged at even the elements.

Thus, my favorite book about Nixon is Richard Reeves, Nixon: Alone In the White House, in which those final years are starkly and even poetically rendered.

We find Nixon more-and-more alone and isolated, ensconced in his Executive Office Building hideaway office, not sleeping, with the fireplace roaring even in August, brooding while drinking excessively, filling page-after-free-associative-page in his ever-present yellow legal pads. It is not difficult to imagine the thoughts that were tormenting him. All brought upon himself.

It is equally easy to imagine the thoughts now tormenting Donald Trump as his personal universe is imploding. Used to winning he is now losing with the cataclysm again mostly self-inflicted.

Not only did he lose the first debate to Hillary Clinton but as part of the bait she held out so subtly to entrap him, "to get under his skin," was her barb about his undue interest in beauty pageants and how he responded by making unmotivated, disparaging remarks about Alicia Machado, a former Miss Universe, while lacerating Hillary and commenting without foundation, libelously about Machado's "disgusting" weight gain and sex life.

Clinton's was an artful thrust calculated to distance him further from the few women voters who for some reason continue to say that they plan to vote for him.

Trump, rather then letting that taunt go unresponded too--he could have righteously taken the high road, noting how it was beneath him to respond as it should have been beneath Clinton to raise while the country and world roil.

Instead, Trump, lacking impulse control, knowing no high road, took the bait and doubled-down late Friday night-very early Saturday morning, firing out tweets to his 12 million followers--

At 5:14 a.m. he wrote, "Wow, Crooked Hillary was duped and used by my worst Miss U. Hillary floated her as an 'angel' without checking her past, which is terrible!"

Five minus later, Trump posted, "Using Alicia M in the debate as a paragon of virtue just shows that Crooked Hillary suffers from BAD JUDGMENT! Hillary was set up by a con."

At 5:30 he mercifully concluded--"Did Crooked Hillary help disgusting (check sex tape and past) Alicia M become a U.S. citizen so she could use her in the debate?"

This says nothing about either Clinton or Machado but it is a window into Trump insomniac mind.

Or should I say soul?

August 27, 2015--TRUMP: Swimsuit Competition

Barack Obama's former senior political advisor, the savvy David Axelrod, posted a clever Tweet on Tuesday.

Attempting to sum up the TRUMP phenomenon, especially TRUMP's continued surge in national and local polls, knowing that The Donald has owned the Miss USA and Miss Universe Pageants, Axelord said--

"In a parlance Trump would appreciate: We're still in the swimsuit competition. It gets harder in the talent rounds."

Now, I don't know if TRUMP knows how to play the harmonica or can pull off a hula hoop routine, but so far he is looking good and I think will continue to widen his lead over all the other candidates because his talent may be the swimsuit competition.

Not talent of the sort traditional political strategists such as Axelrod respect and feel is essential to a candidate who wants to be taken seriously as a potential commander in chief.

Ditto for James Carville and Mary Matalin. On Morning Joe yesterday, when asked why TRUMP is doing so well they both in effect agreed with Axelrod--TRUMP's electoral balloon will burst soon because of his lack of substance. They both said that once the public begins to pay attention they will want to know his specific policies about the Middle East, strengthening the US economy, fixing the education system, balancing the budget. His shtick will wear thin, they say, and the public will discover that the emperor has no hair.

Or, if you will, there's no there there. Or that there's sizzle but no beef.

They failed to note that the public they claim is not yet paying attention to the campaign is turning out in droves for his appearances and the largest TV audience in history, 24 million, tuned in to the first Republican debate. Four years ago, the initial GOP debate was watched by 3.2 million. Eight times fewer.

The next thing we'll hear from old-school political analysts is that these numbers have little to do with TRUMP but reflect voters' deep interest in Marco Rubio and Ted Cruz.

Oh really?

They don't get the fact that in addition to liking TRUMP's tell-it-like-it-is style (a quality that huge numbers of potential voters like to think they have), his can-do enthusiasm and optimism (Make America Great Again! is his campaign slogan), and his track record as a business man, a large part of TRUMP's appeal is that he seems to have just stepped out of a reality show.

In fact he did.

But beyond starring in The Apprentice for 11 years, he and his glittering family share many characteristics of the Kardashians. They are beautiful, smart, successful, comfortable with themselves, exhibitionistic, quirky, titillating, and intriguing in a Modern Family sort of way.

If you doubt this, wait until bionic wife Melania, extraterrestrial-looking daughter Ivanka, his three perfect boys, his second Daughter Tiffany (named after the store), and I suspect his previous two wives, Ivana and Marla Maples join him on the campaign trail. There hasn't been as glamorous a political family since the Kennedys.

This mix is very powerful political medicine in our celebrity-sodden culture.

Melania Trump