July 30, 2020--Follow the Sex

When prosecutors or investigative reporters are closing in on a subject, it is often said, "Follow the Money." Al Capone comes to mind.

This is certainly true about Donald Trump. District attorneys in New York, among other things, are looking into the finances of the Trump Foundation while others were given the go ahead recently by the Supreme Court to have access to eight years of his tax returns.

Also, while seeking explanations for Tump's cozy relationship with Vladimir Putin, it is speculated that it's all about money, Trump's obsession with building a Trump Tower in Red Square in Moscow.

While all of this and more are likely true, there may also be other powerful forces at work. Sex, for example.

Remember Stormy Daniels? She's the porn star with whom Trump had an affair and attempted to hush up by slipping her $130,000. Trump's fixer lawyer, Michael Cohen, wound up in jail for serving as the intermediary for this transaction. 

Then there is the notorious BuzzFeed Dossier, which, if it exists, may include evidence that Trump, when in Moscow in 2013 for the Miss Universe pageant cavorted with Russian prostitutes. If true, it is not hard to imagine that former KGB agent Putin has a dossier of his own that includes incriminating evidence of a sexual nature. Enough to buy Trump's silence about Russia's meddling in the 2016 election that swept him into the White House.

And, recently, we are hearing more about Trump and Jeffrey Epstein, who for years in Palm Beach provided the famous and rich with access to teenage girls.

Epstein's girlfriend and procurer, Ghislaine Maxwell, was recently indicted and jailed in New York without bail on a range of sexual trafficking charges. Prosecutors can't wait to get their hands on her little black book. At least two presidents--one retired, one current--are likely to be found therein. 

Thus, at a covid briefing last week, when Trump, to everyone's surprise, was asked about her, seemingly totally rehearsed, matter of factly, he indicated he knew her and, three times, said he hoped she was "doing well." Code to her--if she gets rid of the address book and doesn't implicate him she'll get the Roger Stone treatment--a commutation or pardon.

And finally, the reporter who asked Trump about Maxwell, as if out of the blue, was Steven Nelson, from, of all places, Rupert Murdoch's NY Post, which hardly qualifies as a newspaper.

Conspiracy theories welcome.

Hint--follow the sex, not the money.

December 13, 2019--It's In Their Hands

Earlier in the week there was a blizzard of presidential poll results. 

Mainly about how the candidates were faring in Iowa and New Hampshire and how, nationally, individual Dems were doing in head-to-head contests with Trump.

The upper tier could not but feel encouraged. Even Amy Klobuchar, who was in about 8th place overall at four or five percent, appeared to be leading Trump by five or six percentage points. In first place, holding steady, Joe Biden was nine percentage point ahead of Trump.

Yes, the election is still nearly a year away, though almost everyone I know would like it to be next Tuesday, or tomorrow, and we know from the 2016 polling and results that people who eventually voted for Trump didn't reliably show up in the polls--apparently many people were and perhaps are reluctant to admit, perhaps are embarrassed to reveal they plan to vote for Trump--Biden's numbers especially are looking encouraging to anyone who wants to send Trump packing to Mar-a-Lago.

There was also a trickle of related poll and election results chat in the media that was both encouraging and concerning.

Some of the polls broke out data about how women are thinking about Trump and a generic Democratic opponent. Encouraging, 60 percent said they planned to vote for Trump's opponent, but concerning, 34 percent of polled women said they planned to vote to reelect him.

I know 60-34 represents a landslide and I'll take it, but how can one account for the fact that more than a third of American women say they will vote for Trump in spite of all the outrages he has committed when it comes to women.  From Stormy Daniels to the Access Hollywood tape to the way he characterizes any women with whom he disagrees. Ask Congresswoman Maxine Waters how he has smeared her.

And then, when discussing the polling results someone on "Morning Joe" reminded the panel and viewers that in 2016 only 19 percent of young people voted. Not for Trump, not for Hillary but did not vote at all. 

Also, someone pointed out that three years ago 4.4 million of Obama's 2012 voters did not vote.

So, looking toward 2020, unless women turn out, especially if black women vote at close to Obama levels, unless young people turn out, Trump could win a close Electoral College victory.

The good news though--it's all in our hands. 

March 23, 2019--Rats: Hope Springs Eternal

Let's hope Alexander Pope has it right because if Hope cooperates with the House Judiciary Committee, considering what she likely knows, a pack of frenzied rats will be pushing others out of the way as they race to the gangplank of the sinking SS Trump.

I am referring to Hope Hicks. Trump's most devoted aide. Whatever her title, at the White House she was Communications Director, her real job was to be Trump's unquestioning, totally loyal, always available, willing to do anything right-hand "girl."

Only 29 when she left him, in effect she grew up in his offices, brought there by daughter Ivanka for whom she also worked. Over time she became Trump's favorite "daughter." Many say he trusted her even more than biological Ivanka.

Ivanka knew what would work for Daddy, what he required. She, after all, before venturing forth, played pretty much the same role. She also knew he liked his women glamorous, with full faces of makeup, and well plastic-surgeried. (Melania, Stormy Daniels, Karen McDougal, and of course Ivanka herself.)

When working for the Trump Organization, Hope was situated right outside his open office door and would show up in a instant when he would bellow, "Get in here." They had a similar set up and arrangement in the Oval Office.

Now the Democratic leadership of the House Judiciary Committee is interested in seeing everything she has--personal and work diaries and note books, emails, texts, and phone logs as it investigates possible obstruction of justice and conspiracy.  

The committee is also interested in any materials she may have that pertain to Michael Flynn, any evidence that Trump paid hush money to former girlfriends, potential notes and documents about the firing of James Comey, and any information she may have about the infamous June, 2016 meting with the Russians at Trump Tower. Again, where she was prominently ensconced. 

Rather than resist the committee's request for documents, which, by claiming executive privilege she could do and thereby slow down the investigative process, Hope herself has apparently agreed to willingly turn over whatever she has directly to the Nadler Committee. She isn't having her attorneys nor the White House counsel serve as obstructionist intermediaries. At least this is how it looks at the moment.

These are ominous signs for Trump because if she flips or even just voluntarily turns over what she has, a smoking gun could easily turn up. 

It is clear she does not want to spend years in an orange jumpsuit. 

As often is the case when conspiracies are investigated it is the "little people" who contribute most to exposing and bringing them down. The Michael Cohens, the Hope Hicks, the John Deans, and soon Trump's personal accountant, Allen Weisselberg.

August 6, 2018--All the President's Women

Rona can be skeptical. Even on occasion a little cynical. And so when it was widely reported that First Lady Melania Trump appeared to be showing signs of independent thought, when First Daughter Ivanka in public spoke critical words about her Daddy, and then when it was reported that Hope Hicks on Saturday was seen sneaking onto Air Force One to join Trump on a flight to a rally in Ohio, Rona was quick to conclude that all female family and special friends, all hands were urgently summoned on deck as recent polls show Trump's support among college-educated women approaching zero percent. He can't win reelection with only middle-age, to quote Trump, "low-IQ" white guys on board.

First the First Daughter--

Ivanka went a version of rogue last week. This was previewed by her and husband Jared showing up again at their senior-advisor White House jobs. They had been AWOL for months while things were unraveling as if to stay as far away as possible from it and the widening stain. Perhaps concluding they had nothing to lose before they themselves were scooped up in the same net.

And though Ivanka refused to answer probing questions during her interview last week with AXIOS, she did concede that the separation of young children from their parents at the Texas-Mexico border was "a low point" in the Trump presidency and that she is"vehemently opposed" to family separation. 

Then there was Melania-- 

After porn star Stormy Daniels and Playboy model Karen McDougal hit the headlines with their claims that Trump paid them off so they wouldn't reveal their trysting, as if she were hearing this for the first time, the First Lady absented herself for a number of weeks (including to the hospital), made a couple of solo visits to the border, and while there--contravening Trump's policies--she showed some empathy for the plight of migrants.

Then, when she resumed traveling with Trump and appeared with him at the NATO and EU meetings and after that the visit to England and the Helsinki summit with Putin, on the flight home, the president caught her sneaking a look at CNN. He went ballastic, demanding that on AFOne, Fox News was to be on all TVs all the time. Melania demurred saying loud enough for many to hear that she'll watch what she wants, thank you very much.

And then, after Trump railed against LeBron James, when Melania said she'd be open to visiting with him at the school he is funding in Ohio for at-risk kids, Twitter and switchboards lit up across the country, suggesting that James is more untouchable than the Pope, who, during the campaign Trump got away with trashing. Sniping at James, though, calling him "low IQ" (Trump's favorite epithet for black people) may be a red line that Trump crossed at great risk as LeBron is very popular among Trump's base of dead-enders.

Finally, Hope Hicks--

This one I don't get. If they are fooling around, Air Force One is not the best place for that. But perhaps because the Mueller probe is closing in fast (there's the Manafort trial underway, new threatening information about the collusion meeting in Trump Tower (Trump finally admitting yesterday it was about getting dirt on "an opponent"), Michael Cohn leaking one of his tapes, and the deposing of Trump's H&R Block accountant, the president is unraveling. The various rallies at which he recently appeared exposed a seemingly desperate man fighting for his life. Holding Hope's hand and being assured by her how wonderful he is and how unfair everyone is being to him could be a version of just what the doctor ordered. That is, if Trump had a real doctor.

So, in spite of Rona thinking this is a carefully choreographed piece of political manipulation designed to show Trump's compassion for children in order to offset the hemorrhaging of support for Trump among women, I am inclined to see it as every woman for herself.

For them it's about life after Trump. Five minutes after he leaves the White House Melania, understandably, will be looking to cash in her prenup and be rid of him. Can you imagine what even one day with him must be like for her?

Ivanka had or has an independent life in New York City among the wealthy, progressive, youthful elite. She needs to beat a path back to them if she wants to resume life as she knew it. But don't expect this to work. She could by now be toxic.

Hope? I suspect she will be the last one to walk away. There is something between them that is even stronger than family. If you're inclined, she's the one to feel sorry for.

With Hope Hicks

May 14, 2018--"Rudy" Awakening

During our first week in Maine we turned the TV on exactly one time and at that for a total of only about half an hour--last Sunday night to watch a little American Idol. We would have watched more but fell asleep after driving seven hours to get here.

So it was a rude awakening or, forgive the pun, a Rudy awakening when we finally turned it on again this past Saturday after pretty much a full week of no TV. 

It was all Rudy of Rudy Giuliani all the time because his antics as Trump's new lead attorney were splashed all over the news. None of it good. All off it tumultuous, out-of-control, or just plain crazy. 

Whoever said this has it right--he's lost a step. Though from all the messes he created or stepped into during the past two weeks working for Trump, I'd say he's lost more than that. It looks as if he's lost his entire mind.

First, when pooh-poohing Trump's other personal lawyer, Michael Cohn's paying off Stormy Daniels, Rudy said that was no big deal. It's the sort of thing he and his firm routinely do for his and their famous and wealthy clients. Shrugging, he boasted, we just write the women "a couple of checks." What's $130,000? No big deal.

It appears, though, that it is a big deal to the law firm in which Rudy is (or should is say, was) a partner. The other partners met and voted to force him to resign. We don't do that kind of thing, they said.

But he appears to continue to serve as Trump's butt-boy lawyer, slamming Stormy Daniels' attorney, Michael Avenatti, who challenged Rudy to a one-on-one debate (I'd pay to watch that), sneering, "I don't get involved with pimps."

Avenatti couldn't restrain himself from noting the obvious--in effect saying, "You pay off women for your rich and famous clients and you call me a pimp?"

Just as this was reminded me what I've been missing since cutting the cable, along came more breaking news--what White House aide Kelly Sadler cruelly said at a meeting in the West Wing about critically ill John McCain.

The meeting included a discussion about the upcoming vote to confirm or reject the nomination of Gina Haspel to head the CIA. Her appointment is controversial since as a high-level CIA staffer she presided over one or more so-called "black sites" where accused terrorists were tortured.

McCain, having been tortured in a North Vietnam prison for years, is on record as opposing her nomination and this may mean she will not be confirmed. Not willing to vote for her, Sadler said, "doesn't matter. He's dying anyway."

So here it is early Monday morning and I'm torn. 

I know Trump is about to start tweeting and Rudy is soon to crawl out of bed after dreaming about all the outrageous things he can do to stir the pot and make everyone crazy. Should I turn on Morning Joe? Should I  . . . ?

But no. I think I'll take a pass and watch the sun rise over Johns Bay.

Left to Right--Rudy and Donald Trump

April 2, 2018--Sabre Rattling

One good thing about the resumption of the Cold War is that we'll finally get to see what if any goods Putin and the Russians have on Donald Trump.

During the entire 2016 campaign and the first year of his administration Trump had nothing but positive and admiring things to say about the Russian leader. For someone who was attempting to project a tough-guy, commander-in-chief image, in regard to Putin, Trump came off as quite a wimp. 

Some said that Trump the crypto-totalitarian had genuine admiration for how the Russian strongman governed. He was a role model for the draft-dodging Trump. 

Others claimed that Trump was blackmailed into overlooking Putin's dictatorial methods because the Russians knew about Trump's history of money laundering, including direct Russian involvement, and sexual peccadilloes. There is that titillating BuzzFeed dossier hanging over Trump's head that allegedly alludes to Trump's bad-boy behavior during the Miss Universe pageant in Moscow in 2013.

In response to Trump's obsequious behavior, Putin for the past two years has made a version of nice. Unlike with Obama, who he wouldn't even pretend to look in the eye, Putin has had many flattering things to say about candidate and then president Trump, calling him, for example, a "genius"; while Trump cooed back, "He has done a really great job of outsmarting our country." 

A seeming bromance. And perhaps, as unlikely as it might seem, some speculated that with Trump and Putin maybe actually getting along, there would be the opportunity for a genuine reset in Russian-American relations.

But then the Russians poisoned Russian ex-spy, Sergei Skripal, and his daughter in London in early May. Seizing on this to revive her collapsing political fortunes, British prime minister Theresa May somehow manged to get NATO allies to condemn and sanction Russia. Diplomats were expelled from England, France, Germany, and a host of other western European countries. Leading the world in expressing outrage, May even got Trump to agree to send home 60 Russian diplomat/spies and shut down the Russian consulate in Seattle.

Wounded by this, the Russians retaliated, expelling equivalent numbers of our diplomats and spies and shutting down our consulate in St. Petersburg. It was Cold War deja-vu all over again.

And to make his actions emphatic, Putin had the Russian military fire off one of their newest Satan 2 intercontinental ballistic missiles (ICBMs) that has the capacity, they claim, to carry up to 10 miniaturized hydrogen bombs.

So now we not only have North Korea launching missiles that can reach America, we have the Russians doing the same, claiming that their missiles are "invulnerable" to American defenses.

If you're having trouble sleeping nights, this may be the reason. If you have kids in school, expect them soon to be diving under their desks during "take-cover" drills.

And if Trump gives in to his aides (read, John Bolton) who, the New York Times reported, are calling for "tougher Russia policies"--presumably increasing economic sanctions against Putin and his billionaire cronies--expect Putin to reply tit-for-tat. 

Then, if we get deeper into things, such as killing more Russian "volunteers" fighting in Syria, if he has salacious stuff about Trump, expect Putin to begin to leak it out.

That will manage to push Stormy Daniels off the front pages.

March 30, 2018--Stormy Weather

The two most watched TV shows in at least a decade were aired last week--the return of Rosanne (18.2 million viewers) and the Stormy Daniels interview on 60 Minutes (22 million tuned in). 

They had one thing in common: Donald Trump. 

One thing he is good at is attracting a crowd. Sort of like watching a car wreck.

Since Rosanne Barr is an enthusiastic Trump supporter and the "Rosanne" character on the show is as well (she talks about how America has been made great again)  she received a congratulatory phone call from him. 

Stormy Daniels, in contrast, didn't even get a tweet. In fact, as I write this, it has been about a week since Trump has had something to say about anything having to do with Stormy. That in itself is remarkable since the president has never before been shy about making comments about anything that he perceives to be affecting him.

It appears remaining silent about her is one of the very few things his lawyers, actually, his one remaining lawyer, has been able to convince him to do.

Wondering about this and also, I confess, coming away feeling disappointed that the 60 Minutes interview turned out to be boring, that it wasn't salacious enough, I had been hoping that she would reveal what was on that threatening-feeling DVD disc that her lawyer, Michael Avanatti, had hyped in advance--maybe pictures--wondering, I concluded that what she and he concocted was brilliant--

They weren't thinking about what would appeal to an audience of 22 million, but to an audience of one--Donald Trump. The only audience that mattered to them.

Their entire strategy is to smoke him out. To get him on the record carelessly saying something defamatory. If they could get under his skin enough as the result of the daily media barrage Avanatti is engaged in, they might have a chance to sue him for defamation and thereby make him liable to being deposed, to force him to answer questions in open court rather than in the secrecy of an arbitration procedure where typically individuals who have signed an NDA (non-disclosure agreement) wind up.

They focused most of their jabs on Trump's lawyer, Michael Cohen, who says he paid Stormy $130,000 in hush money out of his own pocket--money he claimes he got from a personal home equity loan--without Trump's knowledge or approval. 

How believable is that? Anyone have a lawyer who doesn't want to get paid?

So Daniels, and especially Avenatti, have been making the rounds of every possible cable talk show other than those on Fox, using Trump's own scorched earth approach against Cohen and especially Trump himself.

Thus far they managed to get Cohen and his lawyers (with anything having to do with Trump's lawyers need lawyers to protect and defend them) to step in it enough to get at least one defamation suite working it's way toward federal court.

It's still a long shot that they will succeed. But if they do, as with Bill Clinton it will be sex that brings Trump down, not collusion with the Russians or obstructing justice.

Stay tuned. Literally.    

Michael Cohen

March 29, 2018--The 42%

There is a recent CNN poll that has Donald Trump with a 42% approval rating. Up a few percentage points from four weeks ago.

This after what would appear to have been Trump's stormiest month ever.

It was the month during which Stormy Daniels and other women surfaced who claimed to have had intimate relations with our randy president.

It was a month in which Trump disposed of his Secretary of State and National Security Advisor, among various others.

It was a month in which he launched a trade war with some of our closest allies and then a couple of weeks later basically backed off from his threats.

It was a month that saw the stock market drop up to 10% in value.

It was another month in which more evidence accumulated that the Russians and his own operatives meddled (successfully) in the 2016 election, with Facebook and Cambridge Analytica providing the ammunition.

And of course the seemingly and continuingly popular Robert Mueller (with a 72% approval rating) and his investigators tightened the noose around Trump and his inner circle.

And yet Trump's approval rating went up nearly five points.

Forget Teflon Ronald Reagan.

When I mentioned this to Rona, she said, he is more popular because he provided Americans with a mega-dose of political entertainment.

"Love him, hate him (and you know where I stand) don't you wake up in the morning eager to see what he tweeted overnight and don't you turn on the TV every afternoon to find out who he fired or if anther woman has stepped forward waving an NDA, a non disparagement agreement? And don't you every night, before trying to get some sleep, one more time check your favorite news sites to see who else Mueller has flipped?

"I'm embarrassed to admit it, but, yes, I do, I do" I said, "I have grown accustomed to receiving my daily Donald Trump fixes."

"David Frum, liberals' favorite Republican, said that there is a 'conservative entertainment complex,' a place where members of the GOP either inadvertently or intentionally go to provide entertainment for the electorate."

"What does that have to do with Trump's approval rating?"

"The more entertaining he is the more popular he is among a wide swatch of voters. If he's at 42% that means a lot more than just his rock-solid base of fanatics is approving of him. I'd say, the more amusing he becomes there's at last 10% of the public up for political grabs. So, his base is maybe 35% and the additional seven percent in the poll you mentioned, are with him recently because he's had a very entertaining month."

"So, by your logic, Stormy Daniels rather than harming him among the electorate is actually contributing to his approval ratings?"

"Yes."

"And?"

"And, how pathetic are we to have allowed ourselves to become addicted to this political circus? And by 'we' I mean that 42% and . . . you and I. How far have we fallen?"

March 26, 2018--"Give Melania A Gun"

My second favorite sign at Saturday's New York City's March For Our Lives march was--

"The only thing easier to buy than a gun is a Republican politician."

My favorite--"Give Melania a Gun." This even before Stormy Daniels appeared on 60 Minutes.

Along the route, at Columbus Circle, we came upon the Trump International Hotel & Tower, a gilded blot on the landscape just across from one of the grandest entrances to Central Park. A tower of brass and glass as tasteless as its eponymous owner. Shame on anyone visiting New York who checked in. Certainly to call it anything International" is a boastful reach. It's more Atlantic City than Manhattan.

The kids who brilliantly organized the march paused there to chant abuse in its soulless direction--"Lock him up. Lock him up." And did the same a few blocks later when the marchers swung east onto Central Park South and, slowing, turn to face another eyesore, Trump Parc Condominium. A residential tower on which, for a hefty fee, the actual owners were able to affix Trump's tarnishing name.

Hooking south down sun-filled Avenue of the Americas, which every real New Yorker still refers to as 6th Avenue, one of the organizer kids noticed at 48th Street there was the headquarters of Fox News and, at street level, the studio where Fox & Friends is broadcast.

In a prepubescent voice not yet changed, he began to chant--

Hey, hey
Ho, ho
Fake News
Fox & Friends 
has got to go.

Hey, hey . . .

Soon, all of his classmates and the rest of us stopped in the street to join the now soaring, angry chant. "Hey, hey . . ."

"Isn't it something," Rona said with welling eyes, "that these kids know all about Fox & Friends. Six weeks ago, back in Florida, they were thinking about the upcoming prom."

March 22, 2018--BREAKING NEWS!!!

Rona is making predictions again. This time about Stormy Daniels.

Not about what she will reveal Sunday evening on 60 Minutes. Not about the headlines she will inspire, even if she brings along a picture or two of a certain gentleman caller in flagrante delicto. 

But rather her prediction is about the headlines that gentleman caller will inspire.

Headlines Monday morning of the most shocking kind that, in a banner, will span all six columns at the top of the front page of the New York Times and every other paper in the United States and western world and will lead to 24/7-days of Breaking News on the three cable news channels.

TRUMP FIRES SPECIAL COUNSEL ROBERT MUELLER!!!

In the case of the New York Post, over a photo of Trump, pointing at the camera, in his Apprentice pose--

YOU'RE FIRED!!!

"Expect that to occur," Rona says, "Sunday afternoon to allow editors to get their stories written and typeset. To scoop Stormy. She'll be relegated to page 14, below the fold, and will be mired there for as long as it takes for this Sunday massacre to play out. Probably for the whole week after Republican members of Congress emerge from their bunkers and join Democrats in expressing upset about the 'constitutional crisis,' which, by the way, you can explain to me when you have a moment,"

When I overcome my shock, I ask, "Explain what?"

"'Constitutional crisis.' I have no idea what that means."

"It means," I stammer, "It means . . .  you know I really don't know. Maybe until they get the impeachment process going?"

"Dream on," Rona says, "You really think Republicans in Paul Ryan's House are going to impeach Trump? Enrage his base? They'd all get tossed out of office in November."

"Dream on," I cynically say.

"Maybe the crisis will result from what gets unearthed by various congressional committees."

"Dream on," I say. 

"You're right. There will be no committee investigations with the GOP in the majority."

"Correct. The Dems can jump up and down and scream about the need to get to the bottom of things but unless Ryan and Mitch McConnell allow it to happen there will be no meaningful investigations. The way Congress works the leaders and committee chairman totally control the agenda, including not allowing members of the minority, Democrats, to even call witnesses. It's almost as totalitarian as the Russian or Chinese legislatures. We've seen those in action. Members behave like zombies."

"This is very scary stuff. Is it the beginning of the end of our democracy? What if nothing can be done about this?"

"I have a crazy idea," I say, "Organize a Guerilla Congress."

"You're making light of this? We're in a crisis and you're cracking jokes?"

"I'm totally scared by what you said about Trump firing Mueller this weekend. I'm trying to keep myself from going crazy because what you are predicting sounds more than plausible to me. Look at the new lawyers he's hiring. That Joe diGenova is a killer."

"So what's your idea about Congress?"

"Since the Democrats have no power whatsoever, while waiting for the midterm elections in November, they should rent a big conference room in a Washington DC hotel and hold a Rump or Guerrilla Congress there. Do their  own investigations, try to get witnesses to show up, take testimony, issue findings. All of it unofficial, of course, but if they invite people carefully they could get quite a few to come before them. For example, by mid April, former CIA director Jim Comey will be on the talkshow circuit to publicize his new book and I suspect would appear before the Guerrilla Congress. As would another former head of the CIA, John Brennan, who went off yesterday on Morning Joe when he implied that the Russians may have personal dirt on Trump."

"Not a bad idea," Rona said, "I'll bet MSNBC and CNN would give it some coverage. It would break the mold and in its own way be entertaining. Which is sadly required by the news these days."

"There was a Rump Parliament in England in the middle of the 17th century. I think it has something to do with Charles I."

"Yours may be a crazy idea," Rona says, ignoring my historical example, "but we'll have to come up with things of this kind to keep Trump's and his sycophants' feet to the fire."

"Back to your prediction."

"You know I don't make them often, but about this one . . ."

"Please, for the sake of my sanity, don't finish the thought."

Rump Parliament

March 19, 2018--Hell Hath No Fury . . .

Since Friday when Attorney General Jeff Sessions, under intense pressure from President Trump, fired F.B.I. deputy director Andrew McCabe two days before he was eligible for a full government pension, there have been a series of angry crescendos from the president and his lawyers claiming it is now time to shut down Robert Mueller's investigation of potential collusion between Russians and the Trumps to tip the 2016 election by undermining the Clinton campaign. And in retaliation there have been threatening statements from McCabe and previously-fired F.B.I. directer James Comey.  

The latter two asserted ominously that very soon they will spill the goods they have regarding Trump's direct involvement in a potential criminal conspiracy. Comey  for example, who has a tell-all book about to be published, on Saturday tweeted, "Mr. Presidnet, the American people will hear my story very soon. And they can judge for themselves who is honorable and who is not."

This is ominous because Comey, we already know, wrote and secured contemporaneous memos to the file about encounters with Trump during which the president attempted to get him to agree to back off from his investigation of Michael Flynn, then National Security Adviser, now self-confessed felon. 

Drawing on these Comey surely has quite a story to tell.

Then, over the weekend, McCabe, implied there is the likelihood that he did the same thing, memorializing in real time, also via memos to F.B.I. files, conversations he had with director Comey, who seemingly and wisely for corroboration purposes filled him in about Trump's attempts to pressure him to end all investigations of Flynn and the Russian subversion of the 2016 election. Likely indictable offenses.

What with all of this and the Stormy Daniels situation spinning out of Trump control, there is good reason for the president and his enablers in and out of the White House and Congress to be more than a little worried. It would be understandable if there was out-and-out panic. Thus the flailing about, the leaks, the threats, the rushing to any media outlet that will welcome hearing about the opining and spiraling charges and countercharges. 

Of course, all of this is a Trumpian campaign to attempt to further erode public confidence in all parts of the federal justice system, from the integrity and nonpartisan history of the F.B.I. to the Mueller investigation, where there are again assertions that his senior team of invesitagors is biased (it is true that though Mueller himself is a Republican, almost all of his senior investigators are Democrats) to of course the alleged liberal bias of the media.

The real danger is the constitutional crisis that will result from any active moves to dismiss Mueller. How many Republicans would protest? I suspect only a few and that the outcry would be at most a week-long story, with Stormy Daniels again dominating the headlines  

Or is this too cynical?  

If not, the best hope for justice would be a Democratic sweep in November with the House flipping and with the then new chairman of the Intelligence Committee, Adam Schiff immediately cranking up a real congressional investigation.

Nothing focuses a politician's mind more than the possibility of not being reelected.

In the meantime, some related news--apparently Andrew McCabe has already received four or five job offers from Democratic congressmen who have things they would like him to do for them, which would, not coincidentally, restart his pension clock. If he worked for just a few days for any of them, because these would be government jobs, it is felt he would become entitled to a pension that could pay him as much as $60,000 a year. 

Putting aside for the moment the question of any government worker being able to receive a pension after only 20 years in federal employ, whereas almost all other workers have to put in many more years than that for a lot less money, let's think of this as a warm and ironic story.

Andrew McCabe

March 9, 2018--My 3,333rd Blog Posting: Suicide Is Painless

The one thing thus far missing from the Trump Show is a murder or suicide. 

In regard to that he's not keeping up with the Clintons who, according to the conspiracy-minded, as early as their first year in the White House, already had a few.

Vince Foster comes to mind.

He was a colleague of Hillary's in the Rose law firm in Little Rock and her suspected lover. He followed the Clintons to Washington and during the first six months of Bill's presidency served in the administration as deputy White House counsel.

One day, after not showing up for work, Foster was found dead in Fort Marcy Park, shot in the head. 

Many on the lunatic fringe claimed that the Clintons murdered him, though five separate investigations found that Foster, unhappy in Washington, had grown despondent and killed himself. 

For years afterward, Clinton haters did not accept that verdict, including Jerry Falwell, who, through the Arkansas Project, alleged that there were two witnesses who had incontrovertible evidence that Foster was murdered by Bill and Hillary. However, before they could testify, Falwell claimed they were killed in two separate plane crashes.

On late-night talk radio, along with a continuing drumbeat of accusation about Hillary's role in the death of our embassy workers in Benghazi, one can still hear ranting about the murder of Vince Foster.

Thus far with Trump, we hear about Playboy centerfolds and porn stars, but nothing yet about suicides or murders. 

Give them time. He's been in office only 14 months.

As things close in tighter and tighter on Trump and his inner circles, I anticipate there will be a few. 

Would one be surprised if Trump's so-called "outside" lawyer, Michael Cohen, who has created a fiasco out of attempting to obscure and silence talk about Trump's longterm extra-marital affair with porn star Stormy Daniels, took a handful of pills? 

He is clearly one of those Trump enablers who has been with him for years, cleaning up his messes, who feels as if he would take a bullet for Trump. Barring that, killing himself would serve. 

And, of course, this would have the additional benefit of Sean Hannity blaming it on Hillary. 

Then there is the strange case of Sam Nunberg, another Trump hanger-on, who until recently was also available to take a bullet for the big guy and who became a household name earlier this week among cable news devotees as he made the rounds of talk shows, muttering semi-coherently about being subpoenaed by one of Robert Mueller's grand juries. On the Ari Melber show, for example, he was so agitated that Melber and his panelists suspended normal interviewing and tried to talk him down from the ledge. 

As of this morning Nunberg says he will cooperate with Mueller, his is not off the wagon, and though he's still alive, he's on my watch list. 

And, of course, if he does do himself in, Rush Limbaugh can always blame it on Obama.

Would anyone be surprised if Paul Manafort was found dead soon after imbibing some exotic Russian potion? Either administered by the same operative who poisoned the Russian defector and his daughter earlier this week in London (he could have had an open-jaw plane ticket from Moscow to London to Washington to Moscow) or the polonium-210 could have been self-administered by Manafort who at age 68 is looking at 80 years in federal prison. That would make him even older than my 107-year-old mother if he managed to serve his entire sentence.

What with his literal million-dollar custom wardrobe, which he paid for with Ukrainian money, living the rest of his life in a 50 square foot jail in an orange jumpsuit with no belt or shoelaces is not that GQ. 

But again, if Manafort is no more, his demise can be blamed on Huma Abedin or Susan Rice or Eric Holder. 

And, finally, there is Trump himself. From the current look of him it appears as if he is eating himself to death. A few more supersized Big Macs, with his clogged arteries, who knows. 

On the other hand he'll have no one to blame but himself.

January 29, 2018--Reiterating

With the Mueller investigation at full boil, with so many moving parts, it is again time to step back and look for a big picture that links most if not all the seemingly disconnected pieces.

Previously, I've turned to Ockham's Razor, employing that ancient philosophical tool that seeks the simplest but most comprehensive explanation when confronted with seemingly unrelated, even contradictory elements.

In Trump's case we have just this week seen the White House and the Trump enablers at Fox News and Republicans in Congress in almost complete disarray.

There has been a sustained campaign in general to undermine the credibility of the FBI and Robert Mueller's investigation in particular. There has been the absurd charge attributed to the president that the reason Mueller is incapable of being fair is because of a dispute about membership fees at one of Trump's golf courses! And we have been hearing about a secret Illuminati society within the FBI leading efforts to depose Trump and his administration.

And of course there is the revelation that back in June Trump ordered the White House counsel, Donald McGhan, to fire Mueller, even though he does not have the power to do so. He in turn threatened to resign (in a rare burst of integrity from among the Trump people) if forced to proceed.

There is more, much more. All of it, though, made coherent with the help of the 14th century Franciscan friar--

Trump's desperate behavior is because ONLY HE KNOWS THE FULL TRUTH AND EXTENT OF HIS OWN INVOLVEMENT IN RUSSIA-GATE, and because that truth is so devastating, he is frantically grasping at anything that he feels can rescue him from this self-made crisis.

Trump alone knows the full and truthful story of his and his minions' involvement in colluding with and encouraging the Russian government to intervene on his behalf in the 2016 election.

Only Trump knows fully what he and his acolytes have done to cover up, to obstruct their malfeasance. What he and they have done to obstruct justice.

Trump is the only one who knows all the details of Trump, Inc's business involvements with Russia, including the massive sums of money that were likely laundered in the process.

Trump alone knows the truth about what is included in the infamous dossier. Not the Clinton campaign's minimal involvement, which they have attempted to generalize, but Trump's business dealings in Russia as well as his possible involvement with Russian prostitutes.

Only Trump knows what his children and son-in-law have been up to in regard to everything from conspiratorial activities to money laundering to attempts to subvert justice.

Only he knows the full story of his adulterous affair with pornstar "Stormy Daniels" and what appears to be Melania understandably leaving his side.

Again, the panicky behavior we are witnessing is the result of the truth about Trump's involvements, the full extent of which he and only he knows.

It's enough to make one crazy. And that is what we are seeing. But the end is near. Quite near.