December 28, 2020--Chaos Theory

People are wondering what's going on with Trump.

The latest has us trying to understand why he, in full Grinch mode, is either not going to sign the Covid relief legislation or will sign it or then again maybe he'll veto it.

I have a theory--

If we have learned one thing about him we know he is the opposite of consistent.

We also know he cares about nothing or anyone other than himself. 

And then we know that more than anything else he is desperate to continue as president beyond January 20th. Not to govern but in order to remain indictment poof. 

So far he's taken the judicial route, gambling that a federal court somewhere or the Supremes will find in his favor and rule that Biden stole the election and thus Trump can serve as president in perpetuity. 

And thereby stay out of jail in perpetuity. 

This approach, we know, isn't working. Court after court, was many as 50, have summarily thrown out his petitions. 

So what's left for Trump?

Something at which he excels--Chaos!

If he can engender enough chaos to justify his imposing martial law he might be tempted. Trump could then try to make the case that food riots (which would be the result of the end of Covid relief money) threaten America's cities and he thus has no choice but to . . . 

And, of course, he has to continue (unindicted) as president to save the county from the Crips and Bloods and MS-13.

Keep an eye on recently-pardoned, retired general Michael Flynn. If he shows up at the White House (where he is again welcome) in a homemade uniform, that will be evidence that his new assignment is not at Fox News but rather to lead the effort to bring about chaos. We'll also understand why he's no longer walking around in an orange jumpsuit.

This is a very dark scenario but the good news is that it has virtually no change of even getting off the ground. The courts and the military have already signaled that they will not sit still for any funny business of this kind. And our bone-spurred president, we know, is a physical coward. So don't expect to see him in camouflage. 

But this does not suggest that Tump is not thinking about martial law. He should, though, be thinking about getting himself some good lawyers. He'll require at least a dozen. Not including Rudy. This time he'll be needing real lawyers.

Breaking News--Before I posted this Trump capitulated and signed the relief bill. Next--he packs up to leave the White House.

September 12, 2019--Bolting

We were having breakfast together and John Allan said, "With John Bolton no longer the National Security Advisor--whether he resigned or was fired not withstanding--unlike most other high-level changes in the Trump administration, this change will make us feel safer."

"How's that?" Rona asked.

"You remember, don't you, that when Rex Tillerson resigned or was pushed out as Secretary of State and Jim (Mad Dog) Mattis, among many others, quit as Secretary of Defense, we felt more vulnerable as they were supposed to be the adults in the room who would restrain Trump from unilaterally implementing policies that would endanger us, that would make us less safe. Like attacking Iran or North Korea." 

"And?" I said.

"And then," John said, "Trump brought in Bolton to be his third National Security Advisor, the first of whom, Michael Flynn, on the same day Bolton was exiting was in New York facing sentencing for admitting to committing perjury while serving in the White House."

"Yeah, Bolton was a five-year-old to Trump's seven-year-old self. That was our foreign policy team. Two impulsive children, with Bolton being the real mad dog--clinically crazy and in that way making Trump look good by comparison."

"Right," Rona said, "by comparison he would make Trump look reasonable."

"But Bolton," John said, "wasn't happy being anything other than in charge of foreign affairs. He saw himself as a version of Henry Kissinger--Bolton fancied himself the preeminent one in the Trump administration, making foreign and even defense policy." 

"The joke, though, turned out to be on him," I said, "Bolton underestimated how much Trump sees himself as the all-knowing expert on global affairs. And everything else."

John said, "Then there is the actual Secretary of State, Mike Pompeo, who has his own Kissinger-like ambitions."

"With Trump," Rona said, "He will learn, there can be no Kissinger. Except Trump himself. I think as word leaks out about what happened it will turn out that Pompeo did Bolton in. And then of course, Pompeo will be the next to go."

"I wouldn't be surprised," John said. "But back to my point--how Bolton's leaving makes us safer. Unlike, as I said, when, for example, Mattis left we felt less safe. This is because Bolton is a genuine menace. He really wants to start wars all over the globe. Look at the mess he already made in Venezuela. And we know what he had in mind for Iran and North Korea. Wars. With us right in the middle of them. With North Korea, which has atomic bombs and intercontinental missiles."

"These are all good points," Rona said. "With Bolton skulking around the Oval Office and Trump crazier by the day with regard to his reelection chances, we could easily have had a wag-the-dog situation with Bolton urging Trump to start a war to distract the public and to gin up support for him as he faces a tough reelection battle."

With a wink, John said, "I couldn't have said it better. Though, I worry, a war could still happen."

December 19, 2018--True North

Heading north from Florida yesterday morning, on Jet Blue, I was able to watch on TV the news about former National Security Advisor Michael Flynn's sentencing.

Judge Emmet Sullivan was amazing. He wondered out loud why the Mueller investigators were recommending no prison time for Flynn though he "sold out his country" while on a parallel judicial tract two of Flynn's business associates who committed crimes less serious were facing between 10 and 20 years in incarceration.

Why might this be, the judge asked as did the commentators on the various cable news channels I flipped among.

Perhaps the cabin pressure got to me but the answer to why Flynn is likely to get off scot-free seems obvious--

This is because during the scant 24 days Flynn served as Trump's National Security Advisor he colluded directly and openly with Trump on devising strategies to mobilize Russian support for the newly sworn-in president. This after a campaign in which Flynn and Trump also colluded with the Russians in exchange for their massive support for the Trump presidential campaign.

Further, as evidence of Flynn's value as a witness against Trump and the resulting slap-on-the-wrist non-sentence he will receive in March in compensation for that, isn't it likely that Flynn, formerly Director of Defense Intelligence for the U.S. military and thus well versed in these matters, isn't it likely that he wore a wire and has Trump on tape directing him as to what to do to keep the Russians on board as his presidency began to roll out?

If true, this could make Flynn the most important Trump insider to have been flipped by Mueller's investigators.

As they say, stay tuned. 

August 22, 2018--The Fall of the House of Trump

On split-screen TV, on the same day, during the same hour, with the conviction of Donald Trump's campaign manager Paul Manafort, the guilty pleas of Trump fixer Michael Cohen, who will now sing like a canary, with the reminder yesterday that former National Security Advisor and confessed felon, Michael Flynn is still spilling the beans to the Mueller investigators, and the promise of more troubles to come (like the indictment of Don Jr?), well short of two years into his presidency, before our eyes, Trump World is unraveling.

As a result we can expect to see a great deal of desperate, out of control behavior by our deflating president.

There will be firings, there will be pardons, expect an intensification of insults and threats to soft targets such as Little Rocket Man, expect distractions, including some wave-the-dog military action. Expect more unhinged rallies like the one last night in West Virginia, and of course there will be more tweet storms with Mueller and Sessions in the crosshairs as Trump also continues to savage Omarosa, Maxine Waters, Nancy Pelosi, and Hillary. 

Melania will disappear from sight (also yesterday she announced she's about to take off on a solo trip to some "s-hole" countries in Africa) as will the Kusners. Unless Jared as well finds himself under the Mueller bus.

One thing not to expect--more than a handful of critical comments from wimped-out Republicans. They helped create Trump, rode his coattails to congressional leadership, doubled their bets on him as the midterms approached, and now will trickle down to insignificance with him. 

It is too late for these "rats" (Trump's word) to abandon ship. Live by him, die by him. As Tennyson wrote, to class up this sordid tale, we are seeing "Nature red in tooth and claw."

No one in Congress is writing a profile in courage.

And don't expect anything Trump perpetrates to protect him beyond Election Day. Even if Mueller is fired, like the Pentagon Papers, his report will see the light of day and, as a result, after Democrats win control of the House in early November, investigative hearings will begin January 2nd, Trump will be impeached by the House by the fall of 2019.

Though he will not be convicted by the Senate even if Democrats retake the majority since that requires an impossible 67 votes.

But in spite of this Trump will not retain the presidency beyond 2020. Knowing he can't win reelection, after declaring "mission accomplished," expect him to opt out for "health reasons." He will do a Nixon and turn the keys to the White House over to Mike Pence. Another nightmare in waiting.

But rather than focusing on that, let's enjoy the moment and the evidence from yesterday that the "system" may be working.

Paul Manafort Mugshot

March 19, 2018--Hell Hath No Fury . . .

Since Friday when Attorney General Jeff Sessions, under intense pressure from President Trump, fired F.B.I. deputy director Andrew McCabe two days before he was eligible for a full government pension, there have been a series of angry crescendos from the president and his lawyers claiming it is now time to shut down Robert Mueller's investigation of potential collusion between Russians and the Trumps to tip the 2016 election by undermining the Clinton campaign. And in retaliation there have been threatening statements from McCabe and previously-fired F.B.I. directer James Comey.  

The latter two asserted ominously that very soon they will spill the goods they have regarding Trump's direct involvement in a potential criminal conspiracy. Comey  for example, who has a tell-all book about to be published, on Saturday tweeted, "Mr. Presidnet, the American people will hear my story very soon. And they can judge for themselves who is honorable and who is not."

This is ominous because Comey, we already know, wrote and secured contemporaneous memos to the file about encounters with Trump during which the president attempted to get him to agree to back off from his investigation of Michael Flynn, then National Security Adviser, now self-confessed felon. 

Drawing on these Comey surely has quite a story to tell.

Then, over the weekend, McCabe, implied there is the likelihood that he did the same thing, memorializing in real time, also via memos to F.B.I. files, conversations he had with director Comey, who seemingly and wisely for corroboration purposes filled him in about Trump's attempts to pressure him to end all investigations of Flynn and the Russian subversion of the 2016 election. Likely indictable offenses.

What with all of this and the Stormy Daniels situation spinning out of Trump control, there is good reason for the president and his enablers in and out of the White House and Congress to be more than a little worried. It would be understandable if there was out-and-out panic. Thus the flailing about, the leaks, the threats, the rushing to any media outlet that will welcome hearing about the opining and spiraling charges and countercharges. 

Of course, all of this is a Trumpian campaign to attempt to further erode public confidence in all parts of the federal justice system, from the integrity and nonpartisan history of the F.B.I. to the Mueller investigation, where there are again assertions that his senior team of invesitagors is biased (it is true that though Mueller himself is a Republican, almost all of his senior investigators are Democrats) to of course the alleged liberal bias of the media.

The real danger is the constitutional crisis that will result from any active moves to dismiss Mueller. How many Republicans would protest? I suspect only a few and that the outcry would be at most a week-long story, with Stormy Daniels again dominating the headlines  

Or is this too cynical?  

If not, the best hope for justice would be a Democratic sweep in November with the House flipping and with the then new chairman of the Intelligence Committee, Adam Schiff immediately cranking up a real congressional investigation.

Nothing focuses a politician's mind more than the possibility of not being reelected.

In the meantime, some related news--apparently Andrew McCabe has already received four or five job offers from Democratic congressmen who have things they would like him to do for them, which would, not coincidentally, restart his pension clock. If he worked for just a few days for any of them, because these would be government jobs, it is felt he would become entitled to a pension that could pay him as much as $60,000 a year. 

Putting aside for the moment the question of any government worker being able to receive a pension after only 20 years in federal employ, whereas almost all other workers have to put in many more years than that for a lot less money, let's think of this as a warm and ironic story.

Andrew McCabe

January 25, 2018--Mueller's "Whitewash"

I have a Facebook friend who has been consistently pessimistic about everything involving Donald Trump and the fate of the world. Among other things he expects to see nuclear war with North Korea breaking out this year.

He is very angry and may be right on all counts as he is smart, successful, and well informed.

Here's a recent, slightly edited example from his postings--

I'm now worried that Mueller is going to do a whitewash. I cannot understand why he hasn't brought in Trump's lying son or Kushner and his wife. At first I thought it was because he knew if he did Trump would fire him. But now I don't know. They all need to go to jail if not for lying than for money laundering and tax evasion. They must be deterred from ever seeking public office. I'm worried.

Thinking about this and the list of witnesses Mueller has interviewed and is planning to seek testimony from, it is curious that the Kusners and Trump's sons are not on the list. Trump himself, though, clearly appears to be.

Traditionally with investigations and prosecutions of this kind, where there may be collusion, obstruction of justice, and conspiratorial behavior, prosecutors work their way up the witness food chain. From, in this case, the likes of George (Coffee Boy) Papadopoulos to Paul Manafort to Michael Flynn to Jeff Sessions to Steve Bannon and then on to members of Trump's inner-inner circle, including ultimately the president and his potentially implicatable family members.

So what is Mueller's logic of seemingly not seeking testimony from Trump's sons, daughter, and beloved son-in-law?

I've been struggling to make sense of these curious omissions and have finally come to what I now see to be very clever. This should have been apparent to me sooner as Mueller is nothing if not clever.

The special counsel is intentionally not planning to include the children in his investigation and thus will not charge them in his ultimate findings.

Keeping his eye on the big picture--Donald Trump and what he did that is potentially indictable or impeachable in order to cleanse the system, Mueller does not want to incite Trump even more than he is fulminating at present.

Mueller suspects that if he moves against any of the children, Trump will go off the rails and immediately pardon them, disband Mueller's team, and fire Attorney General Sessions and Mueller himself, precipitating a constitutional crises that will make Watergate look no more troubling than a parking ticket.

As a backup to a version of likely mass firings reminiscent of the Watergate Saturday Night Massacre, in addition, the main thing from a Mueller perspective, is to get enough work completed, enough evidence double and triple checked, enough of the mosaic of evidence pulled together into a coherent and convincing narrative, and to insure enough channels are in place to leak all of this to the public and Congress if it hits the fan before he completes his work. 

Mueller wants to make it certain that Americans get the full report of his findings. To, if necessary, leak them so no matter what Trump does to him and his staff, the truth will out.

The bottom line for the investigation and for us is what Trump knew and then did. If our democracy is to survive we need to know the peril in which we have been so that we can recover what has already been lost. Everything Mueller does should be viewed in this critical light.

January 5, 2018--Trump's End Game

One more prediction for 2018 (and it's a big one)--

For more than a year I've been claiming that much of Donald Trump's erratic behavior is the result of the anxiety and fear that derives from his intimate personal knowledge about the extent of his and his inner circle's colluding with the Russians to tip the election away from Hillary Clinton and, more than anything else, since he is motivated primarily by greed, how he was at the center of a major money laundering operation which also has Russian ties.

Then, of course, there is the cover-up, perhaps the most dangerous of their and his potential felonies.

But money is his pole star. Money laundering is his and his family's specialty. Especially the Kushners. Keep an eye on Trump and Kushner money that was borrowed from the Russians for bogus real estate deals and then subsequently was laundered by Deutsche Bank and the Bank of Cyprus.

Only he knows the full extent of this and, since it is vast scam, it is not surprising that under the emotional strain associated with the exposure of this Ponzi scheme he is unraveling.

Unravelling at a increasing rate as the Mueller investigation closes in on him and his family. 

Thus the panicky reaction to the new Michael Wolff book, Fire and Fury: Inside the Trump White House. Tomorrow, copies will be jumping off the shelves. I preordered one and can't wait to get my hands on it.

The book hit Trump broadside this past weekend as he was concluding his blissful vacation at his beloved Mar-a-Lago and on the golf courses in Palm Beach.

I suspect he felt, 'Who needs this?' I mean, the presidency. 

I have to believe that Melania and Ivanka took him aside while there for a heart-to-heart about all of this. I can hear them pleading--

"You're 71 years old, you eat crap from MacDonald's, you're 50 pounds overweight, you don't exercise, and you haven't had a real checkup in at least 10 years. You're a classic candidate for a stroke or heart attack. 

"Isn't it enough already? You never really wanted to be president, you didn't expect to get elected, you got into the race to boost your brand but here you are after surprising yourself by winning, having to live in that dump of a White House, rather than Trump Tower. You have to deal with the likes of Mitch McConnell when you could be hanging out with your pals in Palm Beach and playing golf every day of the year without getting grief about that from the snarky fake-news corps."

He would be nodding his head. They would continue--

"So here's what we recommend: declare 'Mission Accomplished' (or call it something else) and take a victory lap one last time by racing around the country on Air Force One. You love that plane. Pardon everyone from Flynn and his clueless son to Manafort to Don Junior to Eric to Jared and to me, Ivanka. So I won't be the first female president. I've seen enough about what that's like. You get called 'dumb as a brick.'

"Then, declare your work done and get the hell out of boring Washington. Turn it over to Pence who, if necessary, will pardon you."

I doubt that he said anything in response to Ivanka or Melania. But my prediction is that as he thinks it over he'll take what's behind door number one and pack it in.

December 4, 2017--Déjà Vu All Over Again

This Yogism rings true as the Mueller investigation closes in on the upper reaches of the Trump White House. 

To anyone old enough to remember the unraveling of the Watergate scandal more than 40 years ago, the recent defections from members of the Trump team will feel familiar---déjà vu all over again.

What eventually brought down the Nixon administration and led to the indictment or jailing of 40 of his associates was the squeeze, squeeze, squeeze, drip, drip, drip strategy. Just what we're seeing now.

In the case of Watergate, a smalltime player, former CIA agent James McCord, was caught with other burglars when breaking into the offices of the Democratic National Committee in the Watergate complex.

He was the first of the buglers to be convicted--on eight counts--and was facing many years of hard time in a federal prison. Just as he was to be sentenced, he informed the presiding judge that he and a story to tell. 

So a deal was stuck--McCord received a modest sentence in return for agreeing to blow the whistle on those above him in the Nixon administration hierarchy. Among them, White House counsel John Dean, who in turn made a deal to implicate those above him in the organization chart, also in return for a reduced sentence.

The special prosecutor continued to work his way up the food chain and many senior aides were successfully prosecuted. Nixon himself was listed as "an unindicted co-conspirator" and was forced to reign the presidency. And the rest was history.

Squeeze, squeeze, drip, drip.

Now we have exactly the same thing unfolding within the Trump administration.

First to be successfully squeezed was George Papadopoulos, a relatively minor player in the Trump campaign and transition. But someone the year before Trump listed as one of two of his "foreign policy advisors." Later, we know, disavowing him, Trump said Papadopoulos was so insignificant that he mainly remembers him as the intern who brought coffee to the principals. 

The other foreign policy "expert" Trump listed was the now-indicted, soon to be squeezed, Paul Manafort.

And a few days after that, Michael Flynn, a key advisor to Trump and his National Security Advisor for 24 days, stepped forward with the story he has to tell. That story, it is already being leaked, includes his assertion that, in regard to working with the Russians to defeat Hillary Clinton, he reported to and worked with son-in-law Jared Kushner. 

(Don't be surprised if it turns out that Lieutenant General Flynn tape recorded his calls with Kushner and who knows who else. He comes from a military intelligence background.)

If true, this would be incendiary because we already know who Jared reports to.

Then there is beloved daughter, Ivanka, who like her husband Jared, has also in recent months been relatively invisible. She and her family were not even in Florida with Trump and Melania during Thanksgiving.

With Flynn pleading guilty in large part to protect his chief of staff son from prosecution, with Jared and Ivanka and probably a Trump son or two in peril, it is getting to be Shakespearean. 

I'm thinking Lear. 

Trump already seems to be wandering around in a storm of his own devising. That appears to include stealth bombers right now moving closer to North Korea.

Even Trump was reported to say, "This is very, very, very bad."

I'd say, "It's very, very, very, very bad."

Michael Flynn & Michael Flynn Jr.

November 7, 2017--Swamp Creatures

Every day yields revelations about the arrogant behavior of one or more of Donald Trump's bottom-feeding associates. 

Be they cabinet members such as Commerce's Wilbur Ross, former chief of staff Michael Flynn, Treasury Secretary Steve Mnuchin, or recently indicted Trump campaign manager, Paul Manafort.

The list goes out.

In some cases such as Ross they are being exposed as continuing to engage in covert financial shenanigans, seemingly always involving Russians. Oligarchs as well as a son-in-law of Vladimir Putin.

In other instances, Mnuchin's, they have been nailed for deep feeding at the governmental trough. 

Our Treasure secretary, nearly a billionaire from his years at Goldman Sachs and a stint in Hollywood (like Steve Bannon), appears to have a penchant for the luxe life, especially flying around the country and world in private jets billed to the U.S. government (us) with his trophy wife who, while he spends an hour or two "working," shops.

Last week the New York Times had a good time revealing the details of these trips, quantifying their cost--how much it would have cost if he flew commercial and paid the highest coach fare versus how much his private military jet travel actually costs.

For example, the Times reported about the cost differential for the now infamous trip he and Mrs. Mnuchin took to and from Louisville, KY. Coach would have been $1,239; the private jet was a whopping $26,900!

If one costs out all his trips--Washington to/from Miami; New York to Washington; the Louisville junket; to/from Parkersburg, W.Va; a European excursion (London, Berlin, Baden-Baden); to/from Bari, Italy; and a round trip to Ottawa--commercial would have totaled $19,265 versus how much these trips in fact cost--$631,959.

As usual, when confronted with this information, the Trump administration's default response was that this is nothing new. Particularly, Obama's people did the same thing.

Actually, this is another example of alternative facts--for example, Obama's Secretary of the Treasury Tim Geithner always travelled commercial, not even seeking to bump up to business or first class.

I know Tim Geithner (his father was a colleague at the Ford Foundation) and this doesn't surprise me at all. I know how he was raised. At Treasury he was far from perfect, but decidedly was not a denizen of the Washington swamp.

Steve Mnuchin's Private Jet Domestic Travel--$94,101

November 2, 2017--Papadopoulos

As we're relocating, this will be brief.

My prediction about Mueller's indictments turned out to be half right--

Manafort yes, Flynn no--which suggests Flynn may have already made a deal to become a government witness. If so, that would be terrifying to Donald Trump as former National Security Advisor Flynn likely has quite a story to tell.

And no Jared Kushner who after two months of being out of sight finally showed up on a "secret" visit to Saudi Arabia. What's that about? Probably he was trying to appear insouciant. Pretending not to have a care in the world.

Then there is the story in Vanity Fair that Trump is blaming his son-in-law for convincing him to fire Flynn and FBI director Comes and that this in turn led to the appointment of the special counsel. If true, and it sounds like it is, this is the beginning of the end. Greek drama time.

Biggest surprise--most dangerous to Trump of those indicted--is George Papadopoulos. He was "turned" by Mueller in June by agreeing to help the on-going investigation in return for a promised slap on the legal wrist. 

Though this occurred months ago, apparently no one on the Trump team knew or suspected he was from that time working against them as a kind of double agent.

Thus, he was likely "wearing a wire" during some or all of that time.

Who knows what discussions might have been recorded. 

A desperate Trump yesterday, in addition to trying to blame everything on Hillary, called Papadopoulos a "liar" and "a low level volunteer," as if his job was to run errands and get coffee for the senior people.

To believe this one needs to explain the picture below of Papadopoulos at the table with Trump and senior level campaign officials.

If not for this photo one would never know that Trump is so welcoming to low-level volunteers.

October 30, 2017--Mueller's First Moves

It is being widely reported that special counsel Robert Mueller is about to announce his first indictments. Perhaps as early as Monday.

Everyone is expecting that those charged will include Paul Manafort and Michael Flynn. I am expecting them to be at the top of the list.

But look for two other indictments, much higher profile and more incendiary--Donald Trump Jr. and son-in-law Jared Kushner.

A tip off about the latter is the fact that Kushner for a couple of months has been largely invisible. I have been speculating about his absence (as well as his wife Ivanka's). My first take was that they are separating themselves from Donald Trump Senior in large part not to be dragged down with him. Perhaps, based on this, there are other reasons Jared is nowhere to be found. Maybe because he is about to be arrested, fingerprinted, and soon to be tried minimally for perjury. 

What next--

Manafort and Flynn to save their skins will decide to cooperate with prosecutors. If they do, this will further jeapodize all Trumps, likely including the president.

And then?

Trump and his Fox News friends will accelerate their campaign to undermine the objectivity of the Mueller investigation. Mainly by trying to tie collusion with the Russians to Hillary Clinton. That won't work.

And so--

Look for Trump to pardon all involved. There is no way he will stand by and sacrifice his children. This is not the Old Testament.

And, he will attempt to fire Mueller.

Will it work?

Trump will not be impeached much less tossed out of office by the Republican controlled-Senate or the 25th Amendment.

And, though I do not understand all the legal moving parts, there is some credible opinion that all of these folks can be pursued by prosecutors in New York where any number of potential crimes may have been committed. If so, the presidential power to pardon would not work for New York based crimes.

Stay tuned. This week will be historically interesting.

Robert Mueller

July 22, 2017--Imploding

No one should be surprised. Least of all Donald Trump. It has been clear for a half year or more where all this was headed.

It's always been about the money.

The denouement will not be about Paul Manafort's money or Michael Flynn's or Jared Kushner's or Ivanka's money, nor even Don Junior's.

It will be about Donald Trump's money.

A good question--if he is so proud of his wealth how come he has refused to reveal his tax filings?

On the simplest level, he has resisted because he lies about how much money he has. He has a lot, about a billion or two, enough for most of us, but not the 5 to 10 billion he has long claimed.

Remember how Marco Rubio's crack during the primary debates about his small hands got under his skin? Well, this is the same sort of thing. Manhood. Size always mattered more to guys than to women.

But, he somehow managed to get elected and reluctantly moved to Washington and into the White House. Back in New York, in his Trump, Inc. operation, which was and still is a mom-and-pop business, he was used to being the only one whose ideas counted and he had no one ever pushing back on him when he went off and did something stupid. Like getting involved with gambling casinos in Atlantic City and Miss Universe pageants.

Over time, with the big boost The Apprentice gave to his brand, he effectively became a brand. Selling his name and endorsement to the highest bidders, raking in the licensing money with little effort other than keeping his name and gold-foil life style in the public eye. Thus, even the parade of girlfriends and wives, as he aged and swelled up, ones younger and younger, were a part of that charade.

Zeroing in--

When Trump needed to ante up money for a project or bail himself out of an impending bankruptcy, where do we think he turned for money? Citibank? Chase? Wells Fargo? Goldman Sachs? No chance.

We're talking chop shops like Deutsche Bank, loan sharks, and especially money laundries such as the Bank of Cyprus which until a few years ago was a favorite place for Russian kleptocrats to sanitize their dirty lucre.

In 2008, Trump Jr. on the record said that, "Russians make up a pretty disproportionate cross-section of a lot of our assets. We see a lot of money pouring in from Russia."

At least someone in his family is capable of letting the truth slip out.

Even a casual perusal of Trump's tax returns would reveal the sources of his money and income. Would it surprise anyone if we in this way discovered that he engaged in all sorts of shady deals and shenanigans with lots of money coming from Russia?

So when it finally dawned on Trump that special counsel Robert Mueller has the power to demand his tax and other financial documents, something Trump incredibly seems to have begun to pay attention to just this week, bells and whistles went off and that immediately became Trump's line in the sand--he told the New York Times he might fire Mueller if he pressed to scrutinize his finances.

We know for sure following the money trail is looming. It's Special Counsel 101.

And then, of course, Mueller would also see son Junior's and son-in-law Kushner's tax filings, which would make matters even worse.

What we'd be likely see is the inner financial machinations of a crime family.

Donald Junior is reported to be whining that he can't wait for this presidency to be over.

Well, he may soon get his wish. He may not have to wait another endless three-and-a-half years.

If Junior is unravelling as quickly as it appears, Trump's oldest son, feeling squeezed by the implosion, may follow in the footsteps of one of Bernie Madoff's sons. I can't bring myself to spell this out. If you don't remember the details, you're on your own to look it up.

So, here are the final steps. They will happen quickly because we have a talented and mobilized press corps. Much more so than during Watergate. Trump is getting back in kind for what he dished out to the "fake-news" press. I wouldn't have recommended messing with that sleeping giant.

I suspect he'll skip the firing-Mueller step and move right to the pardons. Sacking Mueller, assuming Trump has the power to do that, would bring down the wrath of not only Democrats (that would be predictable) but also rouse the up-to-now hypocritical Republicans who despise Trump but support his agenda, such as it is.

Thus, Trump has been asking about what pardon powers he has and boasting about it. They are constitutionally wide ranging. He'll pardon Flynn and Manafort, which should keep them from throwing Trump under the bus (elegant metaphor), and he'll pardon all his family members. Then, and he is looking into this too, unlike Nixon who had his successor, Jerry Ford pardon him, Trump will try to get away with pardoning himself.

This will go to the Supreme Court and, who knows, with Gorsuch recently nominated by Trump, he might prevail, 5-4. Remember Bush v Gore in 2000. Or then again, he may not.

Then we'll see what happens in the streets. Progressives will demonstrate once or twice but use most of their energy appearing on and watching CNN and "The NewsHour."

Trump people (that hardcore 35%) will go crazy. They'll see this crucifixion of Trump (that will become their preferred point of reference) as part of the ongoing liberal conspiracy. Tune into late-night talk radio if you want a preview of that. It will make Benghazi look like a tea party. Scratch that, a polite debate.

June 5, 2017--To Russia With Love

In case you missed this, here is something I wrote and posted on February 15th. It could be updated but, for me, it is still the essential truth about why Donald Trump is so discombobulated and infuriated by any mention of Russia. Now, even his son-in-law is entangled. 

Could it be that soon Donald . . .

In New York City, at the elevator yesterday morning we ran into a neighbor, Jeff, who we hadn't seen for some time. He was wearing a big button that proclaimed, "New Yorkers Love Muslims."

I tried to restrain myself but passed him a skeptical look.

"I get that look all the time," he laughed in his usual light-spirited way, "But most people agree when I tell them where all this is headed." I knew what he meant by this.

"Yes?"

"All roads lead to Moscow."

He has a tendency to be enigmatic and though he preferred his utterings to just hang in the air, in spite of that, I asked, "Say a little more."

He shared his most enigmatic smile and said as he stepped into the elevator, "Think about it. It will be obvious once you do so."

"What do you think he means?" back in our apartment I asked Rona.

"He's very political and maybe he's referring to the Michael Flynn situation. You know, how Trump's head of the NSC was taking on the phone to the Russian ambassador before the Inauguration about who-knows-what."

"I suspect nothing good. And it would make some sense of Jeff's Moscow reference. But knowing Jeff, I suspect there's more to it than that."

"It appears that what Flynn did was pretty bad. Apparently the FBI interviewed him about this just a day after the Inauguration. Clearly they had been tracking these phone calls during the transition if not sooner. Probably have transcripts."

"And told the Trump transition team that the nature of the calls were such to suggest that Flynn might be a blackmail target."

"This is all so unbelievable," Rona said, "We're not even a month into the Trump presidency and already we've had a NSC head fired, an FBI investigation apparently still ongoing, other members of the Trump inner circle battling for primacy and his attention, but still I am wondering about Jeff's cryptical words. In the past, though he can be a little strange, he turns out to be right more often than not."

"What may really be going on here, and could explain among other things why Trump appeared to know about the Flynn phone calls at least three weeks ago he seemingly sat on the information until more about the situation began to leak out from the media. Then, he finally acted."

"Well, there's one explanation, one more ominous thing that could help unpack that Jeff may be thinking."

"Go on."

"That the real explanation, the real bottom line is that this is not primarily about Flynn and the Russians. Maybe it's about . . ."

I interrupted, "Are you saying maybe this goes higher within the new administration?"

"That's what I'm thinking and saying."

"I think I'm following you."

"Remember that famous 27-page memorandum that was appended to one of the early intelligence briefings Trump received? About alleged accusations that Trump seriously misbehaved when he was in Moscow for the 2013 Miss Universe Pageant? About him with prostitutes among other things? And as a result the Russians have the goods on him. That he's the one subject to blackmail. Trump."

"That's my surmise," Rona said, "It could explain Trump's ignoring the information about Flynn. Hoping it would blow over and whatever the Russians have about Trump himself would fade away."

"And hasn't it been reliably reported recently that though at first what's in the BuzzFeed leaked dossier could not be verified and was thought to be raw information gathering, that now some close to the ongoing FBI investigation are saying that some or even much of it is looking more-and-more credible."

"If that turns out to be true, the road to Moscow Jeff mentioned could be the road that Trump is on. Flynn then may turn out to be a minor player. Maybe even a witness. The real catch would be Trump. If that were to happen, it would be the biggest scandal in presidential history. Watergate, Monica Lewinsky, and JFK and his mistresses would turn out to be footnotes in any books about White House miscreants."

"I can't believe we're saying these things," I said.

"And it may turn out that Jeff's not so crazy."

May 31, 2017--Jack: Be Careful What You Wish For

"Sneaking around again?"

It was Jack who spotted us in Hanniford's parking lot.

"What? We're just here to pick up a few groceries."

"And, I see, a newspaper. I assume your New York Times."

I had it under my arm and pressed it closer to me as if to protect it from him. "Let me have a look. What's this morning's headline, as if I didn't know?" He reached for it and I reflexively backed away. But he managed to grab hold of the paper and extracted it from where I had been attempting to hide it.

He read, "'Inquiries Turn to Why Kushner Met a Putin Ally.' So predictable."

"So true," I said, feeling pounced upon, "I mean about Kushner. What was he . . ."

Jack cut me off, "That's this week's drumbeat--the mainstream media's push to get rid of the son-in-law. To get him to resign and go back in disgrace to New York."

"I don't know about . . ."

"That's what's going on. Haven't you been listening to Morning Joe and all the other MSNBC harpies? And CNN? And then of course the Washington Post? It's all Jared-all-the-time."

"OK, so tell me what he was doing talking to that Russian banker? He's an intimate of Putin's and is on our sanctions list. And this meeting or conversation was before Trump was inaugurated. You think that's not a problem?"

"Maybe not. You think it's a bad idea for us to have a private channel for conversations with the Russians, and especially Putin?"

"Again, you're missing the point. We have one government at a time and this was going on while Obama was still the president. Then there is the issue of Trump and Kushner doing business with this banker, Sergey Gorkov. You're OK with them wheeling and dealing with each other?"

"First of all, this is speculation. No one knows if there were business dealings. And if there were, so what? What would be wrong with that? It was before Trump was sworn in."

"Because, as I said, Gorkov's on the sanctions list which means he's dirty. You want our president and his senior advisor son-in-law doing business with someone like that? With him maybe having something on them that can be used for blackmail?"

"It sounds to me like you've been listening again to your late night talk radio. The programs that are devoted to conspiracy theories."

I said nothing to that but I had been, though all the conspiracies being discussed were right wing ones. "Maybe we'll find out they lied. Trump and Kushner."

"So," Jack said, "how about waiting until then to condemn them and drag them through the mud?"

"The whole business with Russia, and I mean more than business, stinks to the high heavens. There are too many Russian connections between Trump's people and Putin and his henchmen."

"I get it. You want to bring Trump down and think the best way to do that is by demolishing all the people close to him."

Involuntarily, I nodded, "This is the way Nixon was exposed and had to resign."

"So, that's your plan--to get Trump to resign by trashing the reputations of his closest advisors?"

That was essentially true but I did not want to acknowledge that to Jack.

"As the saying goes, 'Be careful what you wish for.' Sometimes it works out that you get what you want and that in turn presents an even bigger problem."

"Go on."

"OK. Like with Nixon, to get Trump you start out be squeezing underlings. For Nixon it was Ehrlichman and Halderman; for Trump Flynn and Manafort. Then you get Kushner in the net and after that Trump himself." He looked at me for further confirmation. "To you and your friends that sound good, right?" I stopped nodding. "So, let me ask you this." He didn't wait for a response, "Kushner and, and this is big, Ivanka both resign and move back to New York. That's the hope?"

"That wouldn't be the worst thing. This business of the two of them right next to the Oval Office gives me the creeps."

"And tell me what the Trump presidency would look like with the two of them run out of town."

I hadn't thought much about that.

"You want him there all alone without his wife--who I predict will say in New York and only show up for glitzy foreign trips and state dinners--and without the two people in the world closest to him and who are the only ones who have a chance of keeping him from doing crazy things? Because, left to his own devices, even I, who still supports him, think he has the capacity to do crazy, even dangerous things."

"This sounds worrisome. That it's only Jared and Ivanka who are keeping him from blowing up the world?"

After a moment, Jack, leaned closer to us and softly said, "That's what I think."

"Then we're cooked," I sighed. This was not what I was wanting to talk about in Hanniford's parking lot on a beautiful Tuesday morning.

"Nepotism is not my favorite thing," Jack said, "But in this case maybe . . ."

A car backing out almost ran into us.

"Enough," I said. "I think I won't read today's paper. Maybe just the sports."

May 12, 2017--RussiaGate

Here's where this is headed.

But first a little history--

On June 17, 1972, James McCord was one of five burglars who were caught in the Watergate complex while breaking into and bugging the offices of the Democratic National Committee. Nearly a year later, on March 19, 1973, after being convicted of eight counts of conspiracy, burglary, and wiretapping, the trial judge, "Maximum John" Sirica, who was famous for the severity of his sentences, was prepared to throw the book at McCord, potentially sentencing him to 35 years in federal prison.

Facing decades of incarceration, McCord wrote a letter to the judge in which he confessed that his testimony was perjured and that he would like to correct the record. In effect, he was offering to tell the truth, implicating the other defendants and White House staff who authorized and paid for the break in and then led the attempts to cover up the crime. Including the president, Richard Nixon.

The judge read the letter in open court and, after McCord's recanted testimony, set his sentence at one-to-five years and over the next two years a parade of high level officials, including John Mitchell, the former Attorney General and the two most senior presidential staff, H.R. Halderman and John Ehrlichman were convicted and sent to prison.

The world collapsed around Nixon and he resigned the presidency on August 9, 1974.

James McCord's Letter to Judge Sirica

Now we have RussiaGate, and I suspect we will see the denouement unfold in a similar way. 

A Michael Flynn or a Paul Manafort or even more likely, the lower-level Carter Page, will wind up being indicted, regardless of who becomes the director of the FBI (the investigations will proceed no matter what Donald Trump does to impede them), and one or more of them will be convicted and thus face a Sirica-like sentence.

The threat of a decades' long sentence, as with Watergate, will focus the attention of the new felons and we can subsequently expect to see plea-bargaining--the promise of a reduced sentence for testimony about the higher-ups. Perhaps including the president.

This prospect is why President Trump made what seems to be an impulsive decision to fire FBI director James Comey.

Trump may not know much about history, to quote Sam Cooke's song, but he knows how to survive. We'll see how he does the time and how wonderful the world actually is.

May 10, 2017--Firing James Comey

Many are saying that Donald Trump's firing of FBI director James Comey smacks of Watergate. We had the Saturday Night Massacre then and the Tuesday Night Massacre last night.

This comparison doesn't sound like a stretch to me. 

In fact, back on March 21st I posted a blog about where they would lead if one were to connect all the dots about how Trump's men were directly involved in the Russian hacking of the presidential election and how this subversion of our election is much, much worse than Watergate.

Anyone wondering why Trump fired Comey, claiming that he did so because of how Comey failed to indict Hillary Clinton, is capable of believing most anything. The truth is much simpler than that. And chilling. 

So below is my posting from March.

Here's what happened and it's pretty obvious.

Admittedly this is speculation but since it explains most of Donald Trump's behavior regarding Russia's tampering in our election, let me air it out--

Last spring when it was obvious Donald Trump would win the nomination and then that summer, after securing it, one or more members of Trump's entourage with on-going Russian connections (fierce supporter General Michael Flynn and/or campaign chairman Paul Manafort) told candidate Trump that their Russian connections, or handlers, indicated that they had the capacity to hack into Hillary Clinton's campaign and in that way dig up enough dirt to help the underdog, Donald Trump, win the election.

As someone who loves winning above all else, Trump with a nod and a wink gave them the go-ahead.

The rest of the election is history.

All the while, the FBI or NSA, as part of their routine work, were tapping into the Russian ambassador's and other Russian officials' electronic communications.

In the process, they stumbled on Flynn's and Manafort's machinations and began a deeper investigation into their work with Russia, including their involvement in the Clinton sabotage effort.

So here's the big problem--

If a version of this is true, the connected dots lead directly back to Donald J.Trump.

Trump of course knows the full extent of this, especially his own direct involvement, and thus the frantic attempt to divert attention from this festering situation and out of desperation turn the heat on his predecessor, Barack Obama, accusing him of "wiretapping" Trump Tower.

Here's how this will unfold--

Flynn or Manafort, eventually facing 20 years in prison, will make a James McCord, Watergate-like deal with the prosecutors and throw President Trump under the bus.

That is unless Trump has already been pardoned by his successor, President Mike Pence.

Left to Right--Manafort, Trump, Flynn

April 13, 2017--Bromance Kaput

The New York Times lead story on Wednesday said it all--"Trump's Sudden Shift on Russia Leaves Heads Spinning."

It referred to the White House's accusation Tuesday that Russia is engaged in a cover-up of the Syrian government's deployment of Sarin gas on its civilian population. This accusation was based on an alleged declassified National Security Council report on the attack which also included a rebuttal of Moscow's assertion that insurgents were responsible for the use of chemical weapons. Trump's people claimed that the Syrians and Russians released "false narratives" to mislead the world community about their own complicitous involvement.

What happened to all the flattering references to Vladimir Putin? What happened to the possibility of a new partnership if Donald Trump were elected? Why does it feel as if the Cold War has been resumed? What are all the accusations and saber rattling about?

As in the past I am looking for the simplest explanation that answers the most seemingly-puzzling questions.

Mainly, what's in it for Putin to allow or encourage its Syrian ally to use poison gas and why is Trump so suddenly accusing Putin of being an international war criminal? What happened to the bromance?

To answer these questions requires us to explore each of their likely motives.

For Trump it is to try once more to deflect and overwhelm the on-going investigations about Russia's hacking the 2016 presidential election to undermine Hillary Clinton's campaign in an attempt to help Trump emerge victorious.

Trump's pinprick bombing of a Syrian airfield, his movements on the world stage, especially the recent meeting with the Chinese president Xi and Secretary of State Tillerson's Moscow visit did in fact for a day or two deflect attention from the Trump campaign team's possible collaboration with the Russian hackers.

But Xi is back in China and the focus has shifted again to what did or did not happen during the campaign. Ominous for Trump is the new story that one of his senior foreign policy advisors, Carter Page, with FISA authorization, is being investigated by the F.B.I. to see if he was or is a covert Russian operative. With former NSC director Michael Flynn seeking immunity, the Page investigation is a potential bombshell and it is thus understandable that Trump would want to change the subject. The best way at the moment to change it is to demonologize Putin.

Putin has a much more complex agenda. He is seeking nothing less than the destabilization of the Western world and the resulting return of Russia to its prior Soviet glory. This process is greatly assisted by direct Russian interference in democratic elections from France to Germany to of course the United States.

This process of Sovietization is also facilitated by helping to bring about chaos in Western societies. So it should be no surprise that Putin's Russia would ally itself directly and indirectly with murderous dictators such as Bashar al-Assad, rogue states such as Iran, and terrorist groups including Hezbollah.

Trump wants to survive; Putin wants to dominate. Their tangled relationship serves both of their purposes--Putin having the goods on Trump effectively neutralizes him and Trump as intentional disruptor thrives in a roiled world.

Here, though, is what to worry about--

We do not want to see either of them become desperate. In addition to historical forces we are talking about two very fragile people. Individuals with fragile egos can be particularly dangerous if they have powerful tools or wield catastrophic weapon systems. Obviously, both Putin and Trump do.

Which brings me again to North Korea--

If Trump's survival strategy, his desperate and increasing need to deflect the search for the truth about his possible involvement with the hackers, if that strategy includes looking for opportunities to have the tail wag the dog, the most  fearsome example of that is not more targeted raids on Syria but a nuclear encounter with North Korea. If that were to occur, and I fear we may be headed in that direction, who any longer would be asking what Paul Manafort knew-and-when-did-he-know-it or on which Russia payroll Michael Flynn or Carter Page are to be found.

We would have our eyes on other matters. Mushroom clouds, for example.

March 21, 2016--The Russian Connection

Here's what happened and it's pretty obvious.

Admittedly this is speculation but since it explains most of Donald Trump's behavior regarding Russia's tampering in our election, let me air it out--

Last spring when it was obvious Donald Trump would win the nomination and then that summer, after securing it, one or more members of Trump's entourage with on-going Russian connections (fierce supporter General Michael Flynn and/or campaign chairman Paul Manafort) told candidate Trump that their Russian connections, or handlers, indicated that they had the capacity to hack into Hillary Clinton's campaign and in that way dig up enough dirt to help the underdog, Donald Trump, win the election.

As someone who loves winning above all else, Trump with a nod and a wink gave them the go-ahead.

The rest of the election is history.

All the while, the FBI or NSA, as part of their routine work, were tapping into the Russian ambassador's and other Russian officials' electronic communications.

In the process, they stumbled on Flynn's and Manafort's machinations and began a deeper investigation into their work with Russia, including their involvement in the Clinton sabotage effort.

So here's the big problem--

If a version of this is true, the connected dots lead directly back to Donald J.Trump.

Trump of course knows the full extent of this, especially his own direct involvement, and thus the frantic attempt to divert attention from this festering situation and out of desperation turn the heat on his predecessor, Barack Obama, accusing him of "wiretapping" Trump Tower.

Here's how this will unfold--

Paul Manafort, eventually facing 20 years in prison, will make a James McCord, Watergate-like deal with the prosecutors and throw President Trump under the bus.

That is unless Trump has already been pardoned by his successor, President Mike Pence.

Left to Right--Manafort, Trump, Flynn

March 6, 2017--Kool Aid

Anyone who thinks Barack Obama during the last months of his presidency had anything to do with bugging Donald Trump's Trump Tower email server is drinking the Kool Aid. This time with Steve Bannon, his Brietbart News, and talkshow lunatic Mark Levin pouring refills.

That Obama would commit a felony, literally a felony in support of Hillary Clinton's candidacy, when it was universally thought she had a commanding lead, is delusional. Starting with Trump who, dangerously, believes this stuff.

The explanation is a lot simpler--

The coverup being perpetrated by the current president and his flunkies is coming undone. Even poor attorney general Jeff Sessions sold his chief out, deciding on his own, without consulting Trump, to plead recusal when it comes to the Russian connection, basically abandoning the president to twist slowly in the wind as one piece of fabrication after another peels away, leaving Trump and his senior staff vulnerable to further exposure.

What happened is as follows--

As part of their routine monitoring of Russian electronic communications chatter, the NSA or CIA or FBI stumbled on conversations between the Russian ambassador and Trump operatives such as Michael Flynn and Paul Manafort, both of whom have longstanding ties to high-level Russians, have been on various Russian payrolls, and as a result are significantly compromised, including, as Flynn finally fessed up, engaged in perhaps illegal discussions before taking office about reducing the sanctions the Obama administration imposed on Russia in retaliation after they were caught red-handed (pun intended) hacking into Hillary Clinton's campaign.

Digging deeper, members of the intelligence community discovered other connections, including, in his own words, Donald Trump, Jr. boasting about all the Russian money "pouring into" various Trump projects. Minimally from black-money laundries such as Wilber Ross' Bank of Cyprus.

With this evidence in hand, including transcripts of these back-channel discussions, it was easy for the FBI (not Obama) to secure FISA-court approval to monitor further conversations between Trump campaign operatives, transition team staff, and various Russian spies. As a result, intelligence officials discovered that the campaign outreach to the Russians and more recently the coverup reached very high into the Trump organization.

So, in the aggregate thus far, we have flunkies such as Flynn and Manafort directly involved in encouraging the Russians to sabotage Clinton's campaign, minimally inappropriately talking with them about what the compromised Trump administration would do after taking office to "compensate" Russia for its help in the campaign, and now of course the massive coverup that likely reaches to Trump himself.

Then of course there is what is revealed in the infamous BuzzFeed dossier about Trump and his Russian capers.

This explains the towering rage Trump unleashed on his staff on Friday after Sessions recused himself without even talking with Trump about his intentions. He opted not to take a bullet for the boss and has as a result already outlived his usefulness. Expect him to be exiled and as the drip, drip, drip continues and various members of the Trump team to begin to peel away. I suspect that this will soon include Rex Tillerson who refuses to drink the Kool Air because he doesn't want the coda to his remarkable career to be that he went down with the Trump ship. And, yes, Watergate style, FBI director James Comey to be fired.

February 24, 2017--Jack, On Immigrants

"So tell me what you and your friends would do about the more than 10 million illegal immigrants."

It was the morning after the Trump administration unveiled a new executive order that outlined plans to round up and deport millions of undocumented workers and their families and Jack was sounding excited.

Before I could respond, he continued, "My boy was back on his heels last week what with the Flynn fiasco, Kellyanne Conway, and that press conference. But with this he's back. And the general he appointed to replace that crazy Flynn is everyone's favorite. Even your crowd's."

"Well I do agree about General McMaster but about the immigration executive order, I'm not so sure."

"Perfect bleeding heart material for you liberals. Feeling sorry for all those displaced Latin Americans. See, I didn't say 'Mexicans.'" I sensed that made him feel good about himself. "But we've got a lot of problems and needs of our own not to have to worry too much about them."

"Well, they're here and for the most part are hard working and law-abiding. I just read that the crime rate among undocumented people is actually lower than among citizens."

"Probably from your New York Times. But aren't they all doing illegal things? I mean, just being in the country without documents or visas is itself illegal."

"So you'd round up everyone? Even the so-called Dreamers? Young people who were brought to America when they were very young children?"

"Maybe not them and as I understand it for some time at least the Trump immigration police will leave them alone."

"Just send their parents back?" I hope he heard my sarcasm.

"You know your American history."

"And?"

"And wasn't it true that when your grandparents as well as mine came to America, because they didn't have the money, many left family members behind? Isn't that a version of the same thing? Isn't it in the nature of immigration itself?"

"I'll have to think about that some more. But it is true that for almost everyone--though they faced a lot of discrimination--they had legal status. They in most cases were sort of welcomed here as laborers, to build railroads, or settle and work on farms in the Midwest."

"Don't we have a guest worker program here that allows people to legally cross borders so they can work on farms and restaurants?"

"We do," I acknowledged.

"But we're getting sidetracked," Jack said. "I come back to my initial question--what would you do about the millions and millions of illegal immigrants? And I should remind you that your president Obama was the deporter-in-chief. He rounded up and sent back about two and a half million. More in total than all his predecessors combined."

"That's true but he didn't do it in the same kind of mean-spirited way. Unlike your president." It upset me that I was beginning to sound like Jack.

"Sure, Obama didn't publicize it because he didn't want to get legal Hispanic-Americans all upset. He wanted their votes. And pretty much got them."

"Can we forget Obama? Trump is now our president, so let's limit ourselves to what he's doing. Not much good as I see things."

"So you're Ok with all the illegals living here, sending their kids to our schools and hospitals, and . . ."

"The evidence is overwhelming that from an economic point of view, from a cost-benefit perspective, immigrants, even undocumented ones, contribute more that they get in government services. In other words, in bottom line terms, we get more in return than we pay out. Also, most of the unassimilated immigrants do work that, forgive the expression, real Americans don't want. Like a lot of the restaurant and field work. How many Americans do you know who want to wash dishes, cut lawns, or pick lettuce?"

Jack was silent so I said, "I take that to mean you don't know too many field hands who are citizens."

"Up here plenty of the farmers are Mainers. But to tell you the truth there are also a lot of Hispanic agricultural workers. Again, we keep getting off the subject. So let me try again--what would you do about the millions of illegals? Just let them be? Make them all citizens?"

"First of all, can you find another name for them. 'Illegals' sounds really nasty."

"Let me come at this another way. You live half the year in New York City, right?"

"Right, but where are you going with this?"

"You're a so-called sanctuary city, right?"

"Right. But again?"

"Which means that you don't cooperate with federal immigration enforcement people."

"Not entirely true because if an undocumented person commits a felony in most cases they do get turned over to the ICE people."

"But basically, if they obey the law, illegals, sorry, illegal immigrants, can stay in the city as long as they want, get drivers licenses, have any kind of job, etcetera."

"Basically true. And most New Yorkers are fine with that. In fact, we feel good about being welcoming and tolerant."

"We're not talking abut refugees, right, but people who came here or overstayed their visas to live and work?"

"Again, I don't have all day so can you get to your point because it feels as if you're building up to some revelation."

"I'll cut to the chase."

"At last." I was feeling exasperated with Jack. I liked him better when he didn't call so much. I did have things I wanted to get to and he has the ability to get under my skin.

"You have any immigrants living in your building?"

"I haven't checked but I assume so."

"They'd have to be rich ones, right, considering how much apartments sell for?"

"That's true," I admitted.

"So you're OK with where you're living?"

"Pretty much."

"It doesn't disturb you that your place isn't diverse?"

"What do you mean by that?"

"That everyone, I assume, is pretty much like you? All rich and . . . "

"There are some who have lived here for decades, before prices shot through the roof, and they are more modest than most of the rest of us. And again, your point is?"

"That you live pretty isolated from your typical illegal immigrant. My guess is, and it's an easy one, that you don't have any Mexicans who snuck across the border living in your building."

"Could be."

"And so this subject for you is pretty theoretical because the only illegals you maybe encounter are working in restaurants, cleaning up after you're finished with dinner?"

"Could be." I was starting to feel defensive.

"I'll bet you don't wake up in the morning and meet any in your elevator when you're heading out for breakfast. Except if someone is renovating their apartment and some of the illegal construction workers are around."

"Could be."

"How would you feel if somehow one morning you woke up and half the apartments in your building were occupied by Guatemalan or Syrian refugees?"

"That is . . . ," I sputtered.

"Go on. You can say it. You'd hate it."

"I don't know. This is all so crazy."

"But it's not theoretical to people here in Lewiston, Maine, where more than 5,000 refugees have been relocated. Altogether, including the refugees, there are only about 35,000 living in Lewiston. Some for generations. They wake up in the morning and see their neighborhoods and downtown turning into Somali enclaves. Ask them, from your Manhattan sanctuary, how they feel about that. And these are good people. But it's not how most want to live."

"But other places like Buffalo, New York, seem to be welcoming refugees and undocumented people because they contribute to their economy. Things are pretty bleak up there and new arrivals rent places, do the work that a lot of local people don't want to do, and buy things from Buffalo merchants. So it appears that it's good all around."

"I read about that too. In your Sunday Times, and I get it. But in just as many places, again like Lewiston, nobody asked the local people what they wanted. Refugees from Somalia just began to show up with the assistance of the U.S. government."

"I can understand that. I want us to be welcoming but local people should have a say in relocation programs. And I'll concede that refugees are not the same as undocumented people."

"As long as they don't move into you building."

I was out of gas and didn't respond.

"I hear you, you've got other things to do. I'll call you next week."

I said to myself, "If you must."

Somalis In Lewiston Maine