December 31, 2020--Out On A Rail

The only people who almost as much as Melania want to see Trump ridden out of Washington on a rail are Mitch McConnell and Mike Pence. 

For different reasons. 

Melania hates Washington itself and longs to resume lazy lunches at the Plaza in New York with her girlfriends. She can't wait to begin to collect her pre-nup money. Just being with him she earned every million and now wants to enjoy it. 

She's been packed up for weeks ready to depart, fearing that her husband will figure out a way to have some entity--the Supreme Court, the Electoral College, the Proud Boys--overturn the results of the presidential election.

My advice to her? Keep packing and before making any lunch reservations, check to see if any of your old girlfriends are willing to be seen in public with you. (Ditto Jared and Evanka.)

Then there is Mitch.

For him it's not about issues he cares about (are there any?) or money or sex. It's about power and with Trump remaining in town McConnell will continue to be left to scrape for crumbs while being expected to continue to serve as enabler in chief.

He has his ideal job--since he was five-years old all precocious little Mitchy wanted was to be Minority Leader. Can you imagine? On the rare occasions he would join other kids on the streets of Sheffield, Alabama, where he spent his childhood years, they wanted to talk about the Crimson Tide while he read Article 1 of the Constitution to them. It is no surprise he was the last one to picked for a softball team. But only after all the girls were chosen.

So he's with Melania--

Then there is poor Mike. 

Pence was thrilled when Trump wasn't reelected. After four years of bondage he finally would be able to stand in places other then the shade of Trump's left shoulder. And finally get his 2014 campaign going. Tomorrow is not a day too soon with Rand Paul, Marco Rubio, and Ted Cruz stirring about, all but announced. 

More than anything else, though, what Pence wants is a Pence of his own. 

A mini-Pence willing to put up with big-Pence's incessant flexing, primping, and blow drying. And be OK delaying his own presidential aspirations. Willing to be Pence-Lite for eight more years.

I know this scenario is not as much fun as the old GOP clown car. But I'll take it.

May 1, 2020--That Masked Man Still At It

After reading my recent post about face masks, Vice Pesident Pence showed up yesterday at a GM factory in Indiana that makes ventilators.

And wouldn't you know it, he was wearing a paper face mask.

Glad to be of service Mr VP.

Oh, and Pence lied about the Mayo Clinic, claiming that he didn't know they had face mask rules. This after the director of the unit he visited, because of their policy, offered to give him one.

April 30, 2020--Who Was that Masked Man?

Masked Man?  Clearly not Mike Pence. 

He was maskless at the Mayo Clinic the other day when he and a delegation of Trump administration officials visited to thank doctors for their work on combating the virus.

The Mayo has a firm policy that anyone working there or visiting MUST wear a mask. When Pence showed up without one and declined to use one his hosts offered to provide, they pressed him and he continued to demure, asserting that the masks are to protect people from spreading the virus and since he is not infected (he claimed to be tested "regularly") he didn't need to wear one.  

And didn't. 

His hosts were gracious enough not to turn him away, as I would have.

What conceit, what arrogance. Or was it vanity--that he didn't want to mess up his $500 haircut?

Wondering about this, a panel of guests on Morning Joe Wednesday, searched for an explanation about why Pence insisted on going without a mask.

They came up with all sots of complicated speculation while a simple one was obvious.

It is not just because the person he is making a career out of sucking up to, Trump, also refuses to wear one. Though they both insist on never being seen with one.

Let me suggest a stretch of a comparison to how President Franklin Roosevelt, who was paralyzed from the waist down from polio, did all he could never to reveal the steel braces he needed to wear on his legs.

Doing so was political--FDR wanted to project strength and thus this "cover up."

The last thing Pence and Trump want is to appear fallible. And they do not want to remind voters that there are complicitous in the spread of the coronavirus. Their agenda is to deny its reality and obscure their series of policies that have it much worse, much deadlier.

Wearing a mask would underscore that the pandemic is still very much with us and until and before there are effective treatments, including vaccinations, they are desperate to vamp their way though the crisis by using theatrics, distortions, and lies to cover up their failures.

For them, business as usual.

As Jared Kushner just said, It's a "great success story." 

November 13, 2019--Vice President Nikki

I spoke too soon when I wrote snarkily last week that if Michael Bloomberg wants to enter the Democratic contest and is playing to win, running on a bipartisan ticket with someone like Nikki Haley as his Vice Presidential candidate could be a politically smart move.

But then a couple of things happened--first, I had second thoughts about Haley after a rush of friends' comments inspired me to take a closer look at her resumé. It's not that impressive. She clearly has a lot of personal sizzle but not much substance. 

And, then, in conjunction with the publication of her book, With All Due Respect, she appears to be signaling that she is available right now to run for vice president--not on a Bloomberg ticket but on Trump's, after he dumps Mike Pence.

I can only imagine her pitching Trump that if he taps her that will solve his problem with suburban women. And as a woman of color, that too would be helpful. Win, win, win.

Gossipy books such as this, for which she received at least a $2.0 million advance from Simon & Schuster, need to have enough juicy stories to generate prepublication buzz and advanced orders on Amazon. As of this morning it is 4th on Amazon'a best seller list.

In the case of Haley, the juicy stuff is her claim that in the early days of the Trump administration she was approached by Secretary of State Rex Tillerson and Chief of Staff John Kelly to join them in "saving the country" by "undermining Trump." 

If true, one might call this treason.

But is her revelation true?

She was asked point blank Monday night on Fox News by Sean Hannity if she told the president about this plot. She said, "absolutely."

He failed to follow up. He did not ask her why, then, she did not mention it in her book. If it happened, wouldn't she have written about alerting Trump and wouldn't he, if she brought this treasonous allegation to his attention, have had Tillerson and Kelly escorted by federal marshals to the Oval Office and fired them on the spot?

So I doubt her story and see it as fabricated for an audience of one, Trump, to maneuver him to put her on his ticket. And to sell books.

On the other hand, candidate Bloomberg with a moderate Republican as his vice president may still be a good idea.

October 30, 2019--Nancy

In a government of incompetents--executive and legislative--there is one shining exception: how the House of Representatives has been handling the impeachment process.

Actually, how Speaker of the House Nancy Pelosi is managing the investigation.

It easily could have been a fiasco. Three or four committees of the House competing with each other for the lead role in conducting hearings would have sown more confusion than light. The public by now, with short attention spans, would have tuned out and drifted back to watching sports and Dancing With the Stars on TV. 

Trump would be tipped back in his Barka Lounger, puffing on a victory cigar while the rest of us would be left to dread what it would be like to have another four years of Trump, Fox News, Republican senators, and Rudy Giuliani.

But under Pelosi's firm direction we have seen a manageable procession of witnesses who, in the aggregate, are producing a narrative that is coherent and almost certain to lead to the impeachment of Trump and a trial in the Senate.

It is considered unlikely that the Republican-controlled Senate will vote to turn Trump out of office. Acknowledging this, allow me to spin a fantasy--

The aggregated evidence of how Trump's behavior has imperiled our national security is so compelling that before Thanksgiving he is impeached by the House. New evidence emerges that his high crimes and misdemeanors are so felonious that 20 GOP senators vote to expel him. This, along with all Democratic senators, is enough to turn him out of office. 

Mike Pence becomes president and as in the past we do not have a Vice President. (For example during the second term of the Nixon presidency.)

The House Intelligence Committee continues its work, this time with Pence under the microscope. Evidence accumulates quickly that he was even more directly involved than Trump in impeachable behavior when it came to pressuring Ukraine to dig up dirt about the Bidens. 

As a result he is impeached and voted out of office, again by the Senate.

We thus do not have a president until the next in line is sworn in.

The 25th Amendment on presidential succession requires that when there is neither a sitting president nor vice president--the Speaker of the House becomes president.

This means Speaker Nancy Pelosi becomes president.

We would finally have a woman serving as our commander-in-chief. A tough and competent one at that.

October 22, 2019--Jack Sputtering

Jack, alone, was slumped in a booth, seemingly talking to himself when we arrived at the Bristol Diner. 

Rona poked me and mouthed that maybe we should leave him alone. 

She whispered, "I think he's unraveling."

"If he is then maybe we should sit with him."  She nodded and led the way. 

"What's up Jack? You seem all out of joint?"

"I'm sick of those assholes."

"Who might they be?" Rona asked.

"Senators."

"Senators?" I said, "All of a sudden you care about them? I thought all that interested you was your president."

"That's my point."

"I'm not following you," I said. "Though I assume you're bent out of shape about the Republican senators."

"You assume correctly."

"I don't see why you're so down on them," Rona said, "They've rolled over for him. They'd be among those who wouldn't care if he shot someone on Fifth Avenue. All they're interested in is covering for him so he doesn't sic his base on them. Primary them, for example. They'll do anything to get reelected and believe if they cover for him, if they look the other way he won't come after them."

"It may surprise you," Jack said, "that I agree with most of that. They're a bunch of slimy hypocrites."

"Of course they're hypocrites. But I'm not getting your problem with them. As Rona said they're protecting him. I assume that's what you'd want them to do. Protect him from the Democrats."

"My problem is that these senators don't care about him but only about themselves. They'd throw him under the bus if they thought they could get away with it. This means the protection they provide is very thin and that makes Trump vulnerable."

"From your mouth to God's ear," Rona said. "I am hoping, to be honest, that they do throw him under the bus. My fantasy is that Pence becomes president. As bad as I think he would be he'd be like a breath of fresh air."

"His own people hate Trump and that scares me."

"Hate him?"

"If you were a Republican senator . . ."

"What a nightmarish thought," Rona said.

"If you were a Republican senator wouldn't you hate him? I don't mean express that openly. No one in their right mind who wants to remain in the Senate or run for president in four years would openly criticize him. As I said, they depend upon him to get reelected. So they show support for him and he reciprocates. Talk about quid pro quo."

"But I don't get the hate part. Why do they hate him?"

"They, all senators from both parties think of themselves as being members of the world's most exclusive club. There are only 100 senators, and they pride themeless on their independence and like to pretend they're above the grimy fray. In their own minds they're statesmen and compare themselves favorably to members of the House where representatives are comfortable doing whatever their leaders tell them to do. For example, how to vote. Look at how powerful Nancy Pelosi is. If she says jump, they jump. These days she even has AOC under her thumb. She housebroke her. Pun intended."

"I'm with you so far," Rona said.

"So how do you think it makes senators feel when they find themselves jumping when Trump tells them to do so? Or when Trump's lackey Mitch McConnell tells them to jump? Not too good, right?"

"I imagine not," Rona said.

"If true, then, a whole lot of Republican senators are not feeling very good about themselves. They're not the independent-minded big shots they like to think they are. They're a bunch of lackeys too. And politically and psychologically that can be dangerous for Trump. It means support for Trump in the Senate is thin because it was coerced and therefore is ready to explode or collapse. If Romney or Lindsey Graham, both still wanting to be president like half the senators do, were to pull the plug on their support for Trump, his presidency could come crashing down. Again, because most of the Republican senators hate him for what he has turned them into. How he has diminished and humiliated them. They know he has contempt for them. He doesn't even make the effort to pretend to pay attention to them much less take them seriously."

"This is quite an indictment," I said, "Sorry, though, for the indictment reference."

For the first time that morning Jack smiled.

March 19, 2019--Two Predictions

For the Democratic presidential nomination I predict it will come down to three finalists--

In third place, Kamala Harris; the runner up will be Bernie Sanders; and the winner--Joe Biden (assuming he cuts out the rapidly wearing-thin coy act and gets in the race).

Biden will select Harris to be his running mate and they will go on to defeat Trump or Mike Pence.

Can we vote now?

Second prediction--

The Mueller report is about to land and, as a courtesy, the special counsel informed Trump's attorneys that he and members of his family are about to be indicted. Trump as an un-indicted co-conspirator.

The FBI will not break into Eric's, Don Junior's, or Jared's homes because as big-game hunters the sons' places are likely armed to the teeth with elephant guns. They will thus be invited to turn themselves in by the end of the month.

So Trump will be faced with pressure to pardon them and perhaps Paul Manafort and others while he's at it. To obviate this, we will learn that Mueller has referred their cases and turned over the evidence he has amassed to the pardon-proof prosecutors of the New-York-City-based Court of the Southern District of New York.

These impending arrests have Trump crazed, off his pins, and thus he has been launching a record number of vitriolic tweets, including two this weekend again about John McCain and five about suspended Fox News personality, Janine Piro. In total, a clinically-concerning 50. 

Further evidence of his desperation is the fact that he and Melania went to church last Sunday.

If there is a just God, that will not help.

February 25, 2019--Mitt Who??

Rona said--"Do you remember someone named Mitt something-or-other?"

"You must mean Mitt Romney."

"That could be. I think he ran for president a few years ago and then disappeared only to resurface when he had some tough things to say about Trump and Trump University."

"Yeah, he called Trump a phony and that his promises are as worthless as a degree from Trump University."

"I remember that," Rona said, "Romney also said that Trump was playing Americans for suckers. If I have this right, he also said that Trump was getting a free ride to the White House and all we're getting in return is a lousy MAGA hat."

"That's why I thought he'd be a maverick once he got to the Senate. In the mold of John McCain."

"Then, if I have this straight, he ran for the Senate from Utah where I think he won."

"Yes, it's coming back to me," I said, "I remember seeing Mike Pence swearing him in. I assumed they hated each other and I enjoyed, I'll admit, watching Pence squirm."

"It was as if Romney had him targeted in crosshairs. Though I shouldn't put it that way since clueless Roger Stone got himself in trouble last week for threatening his judge when he tweeted about her being in crosshairs."

"It seemed obvious that Romney got himself elected to position himself for another go at the presidency, either running in 2020, if Trump decides not to seek reelection or, if he thinks he can win the nomination, he decides to challenge Trump in the primaries." 

"And of course Pence is thinking the same thing."

"So," I said, "we expected to enjoy watching Romney and Trump going at each other and of course waiting for more Trump criticism from Senator Romney."

"It's all coming back to me," Rona said.

"And?"

"And nothing. Literally nothing. I was beginning to think, since he's been so invisible, that I was hallucinating about Romney winning Orrin Hatch's old Senate seat."

"It is weird," I said, "One would have expected Romney to have a few choice things to say about Trump's bogus national emergency."

"I can't explain it," Rona said. "What kind of power does Trump have over even someone like Romney who has more money than Trump and very few skeletons in his closet that Trump can threaten him about?"

"It's scary. If someone like Romney is too intimidated to speak out, to at least say something, I'm afraid we may be cooked."

Rona said, "My thoughts exactly."

December 5, 2018--Homebody

Have you noticed that Trump seems to be cutting back on his overseas travel? Way back?

Last month, he skipped three annual summits in Asia--the first time since 2013 that an American president has been absent. He sent Mike Pence in his place and left him on his own to tussle with China's president, Xi Jinping.

And he canceled scheduled visits to Ireland on the way home from the recent G-20 meeting which was held in Argentina.

White House aides said the president was too busy to stop in Bogota, a visit intended as a make up after Trump canceled a trip to Peru and Colombia in the spring. The Ireland stop, which was supposed to be tacked onto a recent trip to Paris, reportedly was to include a check-in at the Trump International Golf Links at Doonbeg. Not even a round of golf on one of his course could lure him.

What's up?

First, he likes to sleep in his own bed. During the 2016 presidential campaign after rallies he almost always flew home to New York City, to Trump Tower, no matter the distance, so he could curl up with his "blanky."

Then, he doesn't do group very well. At the G-20, for example, he had to share some of the spotlight with the other 19 leaders who attended. Considering his ego--always wanting to have the focus on himself--the thought of sharing the stage with his peers likely made his skin curl.

At the G-20, as the time drew near when he could make it back to the security of his bunk in Air Force One, he was caught on a hot mic, barking at one of his aides, "Get me out of here."

Or how fun is it to travel if all the other world leaders dislike him so much (I'm being kind putting it that way)? While away he therefore has no one to schmooze with. 

When in Buenos Aires, how he must have envied seeing Vladimir Putin and Saudi Arabia's murderous dictator MBS (Mohammed bin Salman) high-fiving and having the time of their lives joshing about how they handle dissidents and annoying journalists. One could see the sulking Trump eyeing them enviously.  

For various reasons it would not have been politically wise for there to be an equivalent video of Trump yucking it up with these erstwhile pals.

Also, Trump is scaling back on his overseas travel for fear that one time when he is on another continent there will be a coup back home and he will find himself thrown out of office and Trump Tower converted to public housing.

This is a common concern of dictators where this sort of thing actually happens. For example to Cambodia's Pol Pot and Uganda's Idi Amin.

So look for Pence and Mike Pompeo to be on the road and racking up those frequent flyer miles.

November 6, 2018--Final Predictions

While people are still voting and before there are any results, to distract myself here are a few predictions and speculations--

The numbers in the Senate will remain the same with the GOP continuing to hold a one-seat majority.

Arizona and Texas will flip from Republican to Democratic with Beto O'Rourke emerging as the brightest new Democrat star. By Thursday, no, by tomorrow he will become the frontrunner for the 2020 presidential nomination and two years from now will defeat Mike Pence.

Obviously, this means that Donald Trump, for one reason or another, will not serve out his first term. Early next year he will declare Mission Accomplished and turn the keys to the Oval Office over to Pence.

In the House we will see a real "wave election." Still stung for getting 2016 wrong (no one predicted Trump would win, including Trump himself), pollsters and media pundits are being very conservative this time in analyzing the data and making projections. The consensus going in is that the Democrats will eek out just enough flipped seats (they need 23) to take control. I suspect they will do much better, winning close to 50 currently Republican-held seats.

As it should be, this will be the headline. 

Anticipating this, Trump in recent days has been saying he's been concentrating exclusively on the Senate. There are too many seats in the House for him to pay attention to, he said, and thus he won't be surprised if the Democrats take control of the House. "We'll work it out," he has been saying. 

Since he's all about winning, "losing" the House will be what will motivate him to not run in 2020. Better to declare victory than try to deal with losing.

In early January the Democrats, who will control all House committees, will begin a judicious number of investigations. To launch too many will make it look as if there is in fact a witch hunt going on, that the election to Democrats was all about the opportunity to overturn the 2016 election. 

These congressional investigations, where the Dems will have subpoena power, will focus on Trump's finances. Especially his business dealings with the Russians. The Mueller report, which will be submitted within the month, will cover the same ground, and with both dominating the discourse it will make Trump crazier than anything else that might be revealed about him. In a panic he will fire Attorney General Sessions, Rob Rosenstein, and Mueller himself. 

But this will not impede the House's work. The genie is coming out of the bottle and it will lead to Trump's downfall. Giving up the presidency will not stall this momentum much less end the investigations.

Most important, tomorrow's results will be the beginning of the end of the Trump presidency and will ultimately lead to his own more personal decline because there is so much corruption and criminality waiting to come to light that even he, as nimble as he has been at surviving (his whole life has been about wiggling out of trouble) will not be able to squirm free. After decades, his luck is finally running out.

This is why people today are voting in record numbers: it is to say to him--"Enough."

Unpacking the polling data later this week we will discover that ten percent of his supporters will have either stayed home, not voted because they can't bare to vote for Democrats, or held their noses and pulled the lever for those who opposed Trump.

Republican survivors in Congress who have been among his enablers will begin to abandon ship. All they care about is having power; and with Trump now a liability, they will cut and run. Even Lindsay Graham will be looking for another macho man to suck up to. 

In addition, there is considerable pent-up schadenfreude that needs to and will be expressed. 

My final prediction is that all will begin to turn out for the best, The system will have been shown to work. That's a very big thing.

August 22, 2018--The Fall of the House of Trump

On split-screen TV, on the same day, during the same hour, with the conviction of Donald Trump's campaign manager Paul Manafort, the guilty pleas of Trump fixer Michael Cohen, who will now sing like a canary, with the reminder yesterday that former National Security Advisor and confessed felon, Michael Flynn is still spilling the beans to the Mueller investigators, and the promise of more troubles to come (like the indictment of Don Jr?), well short of two years into his presidency, before our eyes, Trump World is unraveling.

As a result we can expect to see a great deal of desperate, out of control behavior by our deflating president.

There will be firings, there will be pardons, expect an intensification of insults and threats to soft targets such as Little Rocket Man, expect distractions, including some wave-the-dog military action. Expect more unhinged rallies like the one last night in West Virginia, and of course there will be more tweet storms with Mueller and Sessions in the crosshairs as Trump also continues to savage Omarosa, Maxine Waters, Nancy Pelosi, and Hillary. 

Melania will disappear from sight (also yesterday she announced she's about to take off on a solo trip to some "s-hole" countries in Africa) as will the Kusners. Unless Jared as well finds himself under the Mueller bus.

One thing not to expect--more than a handful of critical comments from wimped-out Republicans. They helped create Trump, rode his coattails to congressional leadership, doubled their bets on him as the midterms approached, and now will trickle down to insignificance with him. 

It is too late for these "rats" (Trump's word) to abandon ship. Live by him, die by him. As Tennyson wrote, to class up this sordid tale, we are seeing "Nature red in tooth and claw."

No one in Congress is writing a profile in courage.

And don't expect anything Trump perpetrates to protect him beyond Election Day. Even if Mueller is fired, like the Pentagon Papers, his report will see the light of day and, as a result, after Democrats win control of the House in early November, investigative hearings will begin January 2nd, Trump will be impeached by the House by the fall of 2019.

Though he will not be convicted by the Senate even if Democrats retake the majority since that requires an impossible 67 votes.

But in spite of this Trump will not retain the presidency beyond 2020. Knowing he can't win reelection, after declaring "mission accomplished," expect him to opt out for "health reasons." He will do a Nixon and turn the keys to the White House over to Mike Pence. Another nightmare in waiting.

But rather than focusing on that, let's enjoy the moment and the evidence from yesterday that the "system" may be working.

Paul Manafort Mugshot

May 2, 2018--Let's Make A Deal

With Kim Jong-un saying last Sunday that he will give up his nuclear arsenal if Trump pledges not to invade North Korea, Kim and Trump could conclude a deal in less than half an hour. 

What else would need doing besides Trump figuring out the  theatrics of the summit meeting?

If Trump didn't require more than a day in Moscow in 2013 to run the Miss Universe Pageant, talk about a Moscow Trump Tower, and do whatever that night in Moscow's Motel 6, the situation with North Korea, thanks to Kim, is shaping up to be even more of a walk in the park.  

Of course Trump will make that pledge if that's all it takes. No need for dozens of diplomats (which we, by the way, no longer have) to work on the devils in the details. All Kim has to do is agree to having a couple of UN disarmament people resident in North Korean to make sure Kim complies. And all Trump has to do is, well, not very much. 

No need for Kim to schlep all the way to Singapore or Mongolia to meet. He doesn't have a dependable airplane to get him there anyway and the train he rides around in is so ladened with bombproofing that it can rumble along at only 22 miles per hour. He'd have to leave Pyongyang tomorrow to get to Singapore by mid May. 

To make things simple and convenient they could meet on Air Force One. Trump could fly it into Pyongyang Sunan International Airport and Kim could use an Uber to get to the meeting.

I'm making light of this because I think I may be hallucinating. I temporarily increased my meds last week and I don't trust myself these days.

But the more serious side of me senses the makings of a deal. To sign off on one there needs to be self-interest on all sides. 

And there is.

Let's start with South Korea. If we stumble into a war on the peninsular, which was feeling more and more likely just before the Olympics--remember "little rocket man" and who had the bigger nuclear button--military experts estimated that in the first half hour up to half a million Koreans would be killed. Of course, Pyongyang would be bombed back to the Stone Age and Seoul to the Iron Age, there would be no winners, very much including the global economy. So hyper-capitalistic South Korea doesn't want to go there. No more Samsung? No more Kia? No more Hyundai? 

Also, nationalist South Korean president Moon would very much like to shrug off the heavy American presence and hand, freeing his country of client statehood.

China also would like to see the U.S. less dominant in Asia. It is their goal to have us withdraw our 23,500 troops from Korea and for us to be less dominate in the regional economy. And our diminished role advances China's aspirations and worldview. 

Of course they would have to figure our a way to deal with a new Tiger Economy, millions of refugees wanting into China, and the possible unification of Korea. Korea would instantly become the new Germany and thus an economic power to reckoned with. China would have to figure out how to accommodate and/or co-opt that.

What a deal would mean to North Korea is evident. People there would have electricity and food, the roads would be fixed and Kim would have an Air Force One of his own. He also could use the money that participating in winning the Nobel Prize would provide. Perhaps for Kim, more than anything else, he would morph from pariah status to player on the world stage.

Trump too in important circles is a pariah but if he were to sign off on such a deal he would have a chance to get off that schneid. It might even help Republicans win more seats in the House of Representatives than currently projected and make it less likely that Trump would be impeached. It might also be an incentive for him to declare mission actually accomplished and decide to turn the keys over to Mike Pence.

He also could use the Nobel cash.

Kim at Pyongyang Airport

March 7, 2018--Korea

Finally, maybe, perhaps, could it be at last that there is some good news from Korea?

Change often comes about in unexpected ways.

South Korean leaders worked hard to convince North Korea to join an all-Korean contingent of athletes at the recent Olympics. 

Even maxim-leader Kim Jong-un's sister attended, sitting in the VIP box fewer than 10 feet from Vice President Pence, who did not even have the manners to smile in her direction. (His wife travels with him wherever he goes to keep him from paying attention to beautiful young women.)

Things felt so frosty that it seemed as if Trump couldn't wait for Pence to leave so he could get on with the business of nuking Pyongyang.

For the new president of South Korea, Moon Jae-in, having North Koreans participating in figure skating and ice hockey was less about sports or medal counts than high-stakes geopolitical politics.   

Moon ran for office as a new-style leader who would not wake up every morning with his marching orders delivered to him by our ambassador (assuming we ever again have one) but as one who would find his own way on the Korean peninsular, especially testing to see if there is any chance to make a deal for some sort of rapprochement before we, "fire and fury," incinerate both Koreas.

That opportunity may be coming into focus. Earlier this week high-level South Koreans travelled north where they had substantive discussions with their North Korean counterparts, including in the North Korean delegation, Kim's sister--the "Korean Ivanka." 

After the two days of meetings Kim announced that he would order the suspension of missile and nuclear testing during any talks Moon might be able to broker between the North and the United States. Further, Kim hinted, he is willing to discuss the denuclearization of North Korea, America's and the world's ultimate objective.

Trump's response? Moderate. Reasonable. Rational. No tweets about "Little Rocket Man" and "whack job." Just indications of appropriately skeptical openness to Kim's initiative.

Could this be, might this be, perhaps this represents . . .

I am reluctant to compete these sentences and jinx the situation.

But here's the framework for a deal. Admittedly, a stretch--

We agree to discussions (remember during the campaign how Trump said he would be willing to meet with Kim, that to do so would be "his honor"). South Korea, China and even Russia eagerly await the results and, back-channel, encourage Kim to be negotiable. 

After a couple of months, there is the outline of the deal--

In exchange for ratcheting-back their nuclear program, on route to reducing it, the North agrees not to develop nuclear weapons that are small and dependable enough to be delivered by their ICBM missiles that already have the capacity to reach the United States.

In return, we agree to draw down our military presence in South Korea, withdrawing the bulk of our current contingent of 23,500 troops. The UN agrees to deploy inspectors on both sides of the border to guarantee that North Korea and the U.S. fulfill their commitments.

Longer term, the country is unified, following the examples of Vietnam where there is now one Vietnam, and Germany where there is now one Germany. To help in the process, the economic behemoth, South Korea, devotes trillions to the modernization of North Korea, which in turn over time also becomes an economic powerhouse.

Trump one way or the other is forced to give up carrying out any tail-wag-the-dog actions in a desperate attempt to deflect attention from the now rapidly encroaching Mueller investigation. He has to settle for stumbling into helping to promote world peace.

Kim Jong-un and Donald Trump share the Nobel Peace Prize. Trump finally, with this at least, reaches parity with his predecessor. 

OK, too much, scratch that. But they are widely adulated. Enough so that Trump decides not to run for reelection, reminding us endlessly how he fulfilled all his promises. How the mission has been accomplished.

In fact, if anything like this plays out, unlikely partners as Kim and Trump are, they would deserve a lot of credit.

March 1, 2018--President Pence

Yesterday I began to worry about what kind of president Mike Pence will be.

Among other things what will it be like having a genuine religious fanatic in the Oval Office after the current narcissist-in-chief resigns. 

I worried that Pence may do more harm by actually being effective, with "effective" measured by what he will be able to get done by strokes of the executive-order pen as well as through legislation--enough members of Congress will be so relieved that Trump and his enablers packed up and left that they gleefully will vote to pass bills to allow prayer in schools as well as arm the teachers leading those prayers.

I know, I really do, that contemplating this is premature and overblown--I don't want to jinx it--but after eternally-loyal Hope Hicks up and quit, beaten-down Jeff Sessions hit back after Trump savaged him again on Twitter, calling it "disgraceful" that Sessions did not do enough to investigate Obama's alleged illegal surveillance of the Trump campaign and transition, feeling safe to do so because he sensed that Trump has been substantially diminished, I'm imagining Pence in charge because, in addition to the above, Jared Kushner is a politically deadman walking, and, above all else, Robert Mueller allowed the news to leak out yesterday that Trump is now officially a target of his widespread investigation--that he may be indictable for colluding with the Russians and leading the obvious obstruction of justice--for these reasons and more, time is running out for Trump, running out faster than senior staff of the White House are running out on the incredibly shrinking presidency (Kellyanne Conway is the latest from the inner circle apparently about to leave), for these reasons and more this is why I've begun to think about what a Pence presidency will look like.

To move the process along here's what I think Trump should do. My two-cents--

Surprise everyone by holding true to all the things he put on the table yesterday before congressional leaders regarding what to do to implement gun controls. Follow Dick Sports' and Walmart's example by raising to 21 the age required to buy all types of guns from 22 pistols to semi-automatic weapons; require "hard" background checks for all gun purchases, including those through gun shows; provide money to enable schools to become "hard targets"; consider limiting the sale of military-style rifles, especially to the mentally disturbed; and forget the crazy idea to arm teachers.

Work hard at this during his remaining time in office and not by tomorrow abandon the agenda to the NRA.

Then, return to the deal that a bipartisan congressional group agreed to last month that peeked Trump's interest for 48 hours before he jettisoned it and the DACA youth it was intended to legalize. It was a potential piece of legislation that had a good chance of being enacted into law. Many Republicans as well as most Democrats want to dispose of this politically toxic issue so take advantage of that. 

By doing this Trump would leave behind something of an actual legacy. Not just the obverse of everything Obama stood for and accomplished. 

Thus fortified by history, before things with Mueller get worse for Trump, as they now rapidly will, Trump should declare victory and join Omarosa, Kellyanne, Hope, and Ivanka wherever they settle. 

If Gerald Ford who succeeded Richard Nixon after he resigned the presidency claimed when he assumed the presidency that as a result "Our long national nightmare is over," Trump justly would be able to say his long nightmare is over.

Then we know what happened to Ford after he pardoned Nixon--in 1976 he lost the presidential election to Jimmy Carter. If this is a harbinger that would mean we'd have to endure President Pence for just a couple of years.

But we will be able to quote what Gerald Ford also said on the day he assumed the presidency--"Our constitution works."

January 19, 2018--Rx Trump: GirthGate

Donald Trump finally had a physical and the results are more or less known. More or less because there is already chatter that he and his doctor are not telling the truth about the results. 

Two things--

In spite of what the doctor said, his LDL, "bad cholesterol" numbers are sky high and suggest he has not insignificant heart disease.

And he is borderline obese, which is not good for the health of his heart, especially in combination with the LDL numbers and lack of exercise. Riding around in a golf cart doesn't qualify as exercise.

Take a look at this picture from two weeks ago. Does it suggest that Trump is only, as White House doctor Ronny Jackson claims, 10 to 15 pounds overweight? I'd say, it's more likely 50 pounds. Some are criticizing the doctor for fibbing about the president's actual weight. Skeptics are calling it Girthism or, I prefer my name for this--GirthGate.

In other words the president could be a ticking time bomb. Maybe in a bipartisan gesture presidential candidate Oprah Winfrey could help him out with a gift membership to Weight Watchers. 

In the meantime, what's one-heartbeat-away-from-the-presidency Mike Pence up to these days? In addition to standing behind Trump, nodding and smiling. That should tell us something about his boss's true medical condition. 

I hear he's staying away from carbs and working out.

Then there is the senility test. The Montreal Cognitive Assessment (MoCA) Trump took. It takes 15 minutes to administer, not the half hour they claimed. Unless Trump needed the extra time in pursuit of a perfect score--30 out of 30.

Speaking of mental tests, we had a wonderful Aunt Madeline who was a great character, but during the last years of her life was in and out of hospitals. Occasionally, to take a brief break from the rest of her life.

One time when helping her check into Beth Israel in New York City they gave her a cognitive test to see, at her age, if she was showing signs of dementia. Among other things they asked her to repeat "Car, cat, tree."

She was great at that and everything else. She more than had all her marbles.

"Car, cat, tree," she said over and over again. Not because she was senile and thus repeating herself, but to show them and Rona and me how good her mind still was.

They also asked her to reverse it--"Tree, cat, car." 

"No problem," she said before rattling it off. Again repeatedly, grinning proudly. 

That became a mantra. Whenever one of us would forget a name or an event from years ago, rather than being frustrated we'd chant, "Car, cat, tree" to show we were OK. Still do even though she's no longer with us.

This reminded me of the test Trump asked to take to counter the assertion in the Michael Wolff book, Fire and Fury, that Trump is losing it. Or, has already lost it.

They also asked Trump to repeat car, cat, tree as well as take a paper and pencil test. Below is a sample. It's self explanatory.

What do you think? Is this the kind of test to use to see if our commander-in-chief is fit for office? That he should be trusted with the nuclear codes?

Or is it more appropriate to see if a first grader is fit for promotion to the second grade?

On the other hand, I do want my president to know his hippos.

December 17, 2017--Fuddy-Duddies

At lunch the other day I was surprised to note, after the election in Alabama, that though I was by far the oldest at the table, I was the only one feeling optimistic.

"How can you be that way?" Henry said, sounding exasperated. "For sure, there were the surprising results in Alabama, but Trump still controls the agenda and no matter what happens he manages to survive."

"Don't be too casual about the election results. For a very pro-abortion Democrat to win a seat in the Senate is astonishing. Alabama is about the redest state in America. And though I agree with you guys that Trump is still president and controls the narrative, this weakens him."

"You're telling me that the person who controls the nuclear codes is weak?"

"Not weak, weakened. I agree there is little likelihood he'll be impeached much less convicted in the Senate. And of course as commander in chief he has awesome power. Scary power. But I'm talking about him being weakened politically. Among voters--even some of his supporters who are beginning to abandon him, at least in private, and the Republican Party--and especially among Republicans in Congress. I feel certain that there is virtually no loyalty to him. In fact, they hate him. The contempt he has shown them. The way he mocks them. Drain the swamp. Tutored and manipulated by Steve Bannon, who wants to see everyone thrown out of office. He wants to bring them down. All politicians and officeholders. Being involved with Trump is to be slimed. Look for more and more to distance themselves. Especially as 2018 approaches and being associated with him makes them all vulnerable to losing their seats in Congress."

I pushed my dim sum dumplings around with my chopsticks.

"But look at all the terrible things he's done," Matthew said, "To the environment, our allies, civility, to cutting taxes for the rich and big corporations. You're feel optimistic about that?"

"Not about that, of course. I hate all those things too. But, again, since he will serve until 2020, a weak Trump is an improvement over an empowered one. That is a reason to feel guardedly optimistic. Also, I prefer a weakened Trump to a President Pence, who might be able to get Congress to do a lot of even more awful things."

Ellie said, "Then how do you explain the apparent passage of regressive, so-called tax reform? This from a weak Trump?"

"Fair point. I'm not saying he'll be powerless, especially in regard to the few things Republican politicians are obsessed about. Cutting taxes for wealthy people and big corporations more than anything else. But, with the victories in Virginia in November and Alabama last week, people who oppose Trump must be thinking--'We can do this! We can make things happen! We can win! Getting off our behinds and becoming activated can bring about success."

" I worry," Henry said, "That people will declare victory and check out."

"Not in my view," I said, "Nothing breeds success like success. Just think about how empowered African Americans must be feeling. Being essential to the victory in Alabama, which for them initially must have seemed hopeless. When was the last time black people had someone they supported in the South elected to statewide office?"

"Could be," Ellie said, "I was struck by the fact that lily-white Doug Jones did better among black voters than even Barack Obama."

"And don't forget that he also did better than expected among white women. Particularly women and young people. That's the traditional Democratic coalition. They are the ones who elected Doug Jones. If  that coalition holds together and we nominate good people, including moderate Democrats in purple districts, next year we can win back control of both houses of Congress."

"What about the 2020 presidential election?" Matthew said. "That's the ballgame as far as I'm concerned."

"Again," I said, "I'm optimistic that we can win then too. As long as we don't nominate someone like Elizabeth Warren. As good as she is as a Senator and advocate, I don't think America is ready for an ultra-liberal president who was a female Harvard professor."

Everyone stared at me. "Come on guys. You're acting like a bunch of old fuddy-duddies. Eat your soy sauce noodles."

October 5, 2017--Back to North Korea

While the country has been preoccupied with hurricane news and now the mass murder in Las Vegas, concern about North Korea has largely faded from the front pages. 

It will be back.

In the meantime, Secretary of State Rex Tillerson was in China last week where he openly stated that the U.S. and North Korea are seeking channels through which to talk with each other about a way forward--"Stay tuned," he said.

Donald Trump, though, did/or did not chide him for that, tweeting, "Rex, don't waste your energy" trying to talk with them. Soon enough they will bear the consequences of their intransigence.

Were they playing good cop/bad cop or did Tillerson go rogue and got slapped down for it?

The over/under betting line is that Tillerson will be gone in a few weeks, or days, especially after he called Trump a "moron." This reliable reported by NBC, among others.

Apparently, after hearing about that, Vice President Mike Pence frantically tried to talk Rex down. We'll see how that works out.

My comment about Trump and Tillerson--that he "did/or did not" chide his Secretary of State--suggests that some or all of this public back forth might be more an act than a reality. To confuse the North Koreans and terrify them that Trump is not bluffing but is actually as crazy as he seems. If true, Trump and Tillerson may be concocting confusing signals that remind one of the crazy-act Nixon put on which was orchestrated by his Secretary of State, Henry Kissinger, to perplex and frighten the Russians and Chinese.

Last week I wrote about a breakfast conversation with Phil, who laid out four options that might explain what is going on between us and the Kim Jong-un regime.

I have heard from quite a few people about that blog posting, including my ex-wife yesterday who asked, among those options, which I think are most likely. 

Here then is how I see the possibilities, acknowledging I have no special insights or inside knowledge about to what is transpiring. Who does?  

I have ranked these possibilities from the most likely scenario to the least--

Most likely--back channel discussions are in fact inching along. Recall that it took two years back in the early 1950s for us to work out an agreement to suspend the war between North and South Korea, with us, of course, the principal player on the side of the South. 

Are you old enough or immersed in history enough to recall the months it took just to work out the shape of the negotiating table and the height of the chairs? Yes, that was a complicated point of contention. It finally was resolved and the negotiations proceeded. The war was eventually suspended via an armistice (we are thus still technically at war with North Korea) and the rest should have been history. 

I suspect something of this sort is underway now. Tillerson, no Kissinger, carelessly leaked what is happening and therefore needed to be publicly chided to assure the North Koreans we can be trusted to keep our diplomatic mouths shut.

Second most likely--Kim Jong-un will be assassinated. The South Koreans have revealed that they are making plans for this and I suspect they are with our direct assistance. The gamble is that there is enough under-the-surface dissatisfaction with Kim on the part of the North Korean leadership class and that though they may be cowed and/or terrified by him, they also want to live on and not be bombed to smithereens by us. They have their Swiss bank accounts and condos in the West and are as a result not part of a suicide cult. Thus, some of them are likely involved in helping to overthrow Kim, or worse. Or better.

Next--The U.S. has all-encompassing cyber warfare and traditional military capabilities that we have not revealed to potential adversaries. Capacities, if they were known to the Russians or Chinese they could devise ways to counter. 

According to this scenario, using these weapon systems, we pull the plug on North Korea--we bunker-bust their underground facilities, using cyber methods we cut off their power supply, their connection to the Internet, disrupt their financial system, their access to fuel and food supplies, and even disrupt, perhaps disable their nuclear and missile activities. In other words, we may have the ability to shut them down and dramatically reduce their ability to engage in warfare. 

If we did this, if we have the capacity to do this, unleashing these new kinds of weapons would, the theory holds, bring them rapidly to negotiations. It would also mean war. But of a less bloody sort. But a war, nonetheless, with all its surprises, complexity, and dangers.

The good news: least likely--all-out war itself. Shock and awe times ten. What Trump said about "totally destroying" them. This puts Saigon's millions and our 28,000 troops currently in South Korea at great risk, and, who knows, more players in the region--Japan also gets bombed as does Guam and the Seventh Fleet. 

And then there is China--what would they do about the outbreak of a major war, perhaps a nuclear war, on their border? Back in 1950 when U.S. troops pushed across the 38th parallel and began an advance toward the Yalu River that separates Korea from China, China sent nearly 3.0 million "volunteers" across the Yalu to directly confront the American military. 180,000 Chinese were killed as were many thousands of Americans.

They hate Kim and the North Koreans but they do provide a buffer for the Chinese who do not want to see a united Korea with the South and the U.S. dominating. They also do not want millions of North Korean refugees pouring into China.

If I have this right, of the four most likely scenarios, I am seeing the most optimistic one as most likely--negotiations--and the most cataclysmic one--all-out war--as most unlikely. 

At least that's my hope.

Negotiations in Panmunjom

July 3, 2017--Jack: Political Bull Fight

"I know you love Joe and Mika."

"Not really," I said to Jack who has taken up residence in the Bristol Diner.

"Don't you watch Morning Joe all the time?"

"Not so much in Maine where we limit our TV watching. Especially cable news."

"But I assume you're aware of the flap between them and Trump?"

"How could I not be, though I already disagree with you."

"I'm all ears."

"It's not between them. It's a situation that Trump created by his venomous tweets. And I mean them since the tweets were almost as nasty about Joe Scarborough as they were about Mika Brzezinski. I think the president called him a psycho, among other things. And of course got into all that blood business again, this time about Mika bleeding from the chin."

"And you think Mika and Joe are wholly innocent?"

"Whatever they might have said about Trump is not in any way equivalent. He's the president of the most powerful country in the history of the world and they are talkshow hosts."

"Let me quote a few things to you that on the air they said about Trump. Let's see if you feel they crossed the line."

"Before you begin let me agree in advance to one thing."

"I can't wait to hear this."

"During the campaign for the Republican nomination Joe and Mika, like a lot of other TV and print people, cozied up to Trump because he was a good story, quotable, and whenever he was on the air they would see their ratings skyrocket. And of course it was good for Trump as well as it gave him many millions of dollars worth of free air time. It was win-win for them while for the country it was lose-lose."

"And then," Jack said, "after he was elected they thought he would continue to be their pal and remain available to them. But once he was in the Oval Office he was no longer so eager to be on their show. He had other ways to communicate with his base. Mainly via Fox News. And tweeting of course. Joe and Mike admitted at the end of last week that he cut them off when they began to criticize him after they tried to influence his appointments and policies. He ignored them and they felt used, left out, conned. All of which they were."

"So far there's nothing new about this," I said, "Talkshow people like Sean Hannity, Mika and Joe, and real journalists are all about their contacts and sources. They live off access and leaks."

"That's why they snuck off to Mar-a-Lago New Years. To hobnob with Trump."

"It's an ugly business all a round. But remember, Trump's the president and what he said about the two of them went way over the line. Though as Maureen Dowd said yesterday, he's not a sexist pig but a pig."

"I'll get to her in a minute," Jack said, "but before I do, do you disagree that over the past few months Mika and Joe have questioned his stability, mental health, and ability to serve as president? This is different than criticizing his policies and the activities of his cabinet and White House staff. This is to call him crazy."

"But again," I said, "he's the PRESIDENT (all caps) of the United States. They are, what, by comparison small time operators. If he could manage to keep his mouth shut or stop tweeting, basically ignore them, that would be the best way to retaliate. Ignoring them is the best way to deal with people with big personalities and egos."

"But again, I mentioned Mika and Joe not to talk that much about them but about something that should be of greater concern to you."

"I'm happy to move on. Do you want to talk now about Maureen Dowd's column where she did in fact call him a pig?"

"Not about that," Jack said, "but about something else she wrote. More in line with what Brzezinski and Scarborough and the people appearing on their show have bene staying about him. Let me read you something she wrote this weekend--

"He is not built for this hostile environment [Washington, DC] and it shows in his deteriorating psychological state."

"What's wrong with that?"

"First of all, Joe and Mika and Maureen are not psychiatrists. Calling him reprehensible is one thing, but attacking his mental health is another matter. Are they beginning to make the case that he's psychologically impaired and so it's time to roll out the 25th Amendment and declare him incompetent to continue as president? If so, expect people in the streets with torches and pitchforks."

"I could see that happening," I said, "His people are pretty riled up. Many, worse than that."

"One more thing--there was that New York Times' lead editorial on Saturday--'Mr. Trump, Melting Under Criticism.'"

"I saw that."

"And what did you think?"

"I basically agreed with it."

"I have to agree with some of it as well--particularly the part that criticizes him for all his disgusting references to bleeding, really women's bleeding. It's obviously some sort of reference to menstrual blood. He must have male menophobia--an actual condition. But now here I go playing psychiatrist! What concerns me is the title of the piece. How it too suggests Trump's unfit, maybe psychologically unfit to be president. The Times even praises Nixon, if you can believe it, for the 'grace,' that's the word they used, with which he handled the press during the height of Watergate. That's as low a blow as anyone could deliver to a president--comparing him unfavorably to Nixon."

I said, "I too thought that was way below the belt. Nixon was disgraceful when it came to the press. He illegally wiretapped dozens of them and got the IRS to audit many of their taxes. That doesn't qualify as grace."

"But here's my real concern--do you and your friends really want to see Trump meting down, cornered? I mean, he appears to be very thin skinned and if he feels trapped who knows how he might act or, worse, retaliate. And I'm not talking tweets and stupid videos of Trump body slamming a fake CNN reporter at a WrestleMania  match. I'm talking Syria, North Korea, Putin, China, and a few other little things like that."

"Say more," I said, "And by the way, you're being very reasonable this morning."

He ignored that and said, "From your perspective would you want an out-of-control Trump or Mike Pense in charge? Pence who could probably work more effectively with Congress?"

"I'll have to think about it. I did write a few months ago that from a progressive perspective a weak Trump for three-and-a-half more years may be the best thing to hope for."

"You told me once that when you spent a half year in Mexico and during your times in Spain you enjoyed bull fights."

"I admit that I did. I know it's not politically correct, but I went to a lot of corrida de toros."

"And as part of every fight in an attempt to weaken the bull the banderillas planted barbed sticks in its shoulders. This did weaken him, lowered his head, but also enraged him and, my point, made him more dangerous."

"I am getting your analogy."

"I know you and your friends are enjoying Trump's fall, but maybe you're also making him more dangerous. If I were you, I'd think about this."