May 6, 2020--Yellow Peril

The one foolhardy thing Trump has not (yet) tried to distract the public and rescue himself from responsibility for making the coronavirus crisis worse is "wagging the dog."

Traditional wagging the dog involves getting the U.S. military involved in a small scale war against a feeble opponent. All designed to elevate presidents' approval ratings. 

Like the small war in Grenada during Ronald Reagan's administration, in Panama when George H.W. Bush was in office, and in Kosovo when Bill Clinton was president and ensnared in a sex scandal.

As in all such situations the message to the world is that America is not to be messed with. More accurately, President So-In-So is a tough dude and not reluctant to carry and use a big stick. 

He might even be represented as a little crazy and thus extra dangerous. With Kissinger shilling for him, Nixon played that card.

In regard to Trump and wagging, keep an eye not on Iran but China. Yes, China. By no means a feeble opponent.

Then why China?

From even before he was elected it has been apparent that Iran is in Trump's crosshairs. He unilaterally abrogated Barack Obama's deal with them to limit for 15 years their nuclear weapons' program and recently there has been an intensification on both sides of saber rattling.

But this emerging confrontation seems to have calmed since Iran-hawk John Bolton (remember him?) left the Trump Cabinet.

The focus now is preposterously shifting to China. Not just to it's cheating in the acquisition of purloined intellectual property and its unfair trade practices, but also in response to our charging them with the intentional fabrication and spread of COVID-19. 

This, in an effort to shift blame from Trump's inability to limit its impact by attributing it to the "Yellow Peril," the way conservatives and American isolationists during the Cold War in a racist way referred to the Chinese Communists.

Secretary of State Pompeo has been mobilized by Trump to assert that there is "enormous evidence" that the virus "originated" in a lab in Wuhan and to imply to the Chinese leadership that unless they cease this behavior the United States is even prepared for military intervention.

In response the Chinese Foreign Ministry has accused the Trump administration, in their words, of "shirking responsibility for their own epidemic and prevention and control measures and divert public attention."

In other words, classic wag the dog. In this case a very big dog but Trump has a big crisis to wish away and an ego out of control that is bigger than the island of Grenada.

January 6, 2020--Trump's Benghazi

If you are still wondering about why Trump gave the order last week to "take out" Qassim Suleimani, Iran's most powerful military leader, it's simple.

It's not because Suleimani was about to launch a terrorist attack on U.S. troops in Syria, or because he was planning an invasion of Israel, or just that Trump wanted to wag the war dog to distract the public from his impeachment. 

Bill Clinton did a version of that in mid-December, 1988 just as the House of Representatives was about to impeach him. He had the military join Britain in bombing Iraq because they failed to comply with UN resolutions to not build weapons of mass destruction. 

It didn't deter Iraq but did work to slow down the process. Just slow it down as the House only a few days later voted two articles of impeachment.

Rather Trump has us bombing in the Middle East because of Benghazi.

Remember Benghazi?

In September 2012, in Libya, in the city of Benghazi, within the walls of a CIA annex, American ambassador Chris Stevens was killed by rebels along with three other embassy officials. The killers torched the facility and one or more of the Americans was burned to death.

Hillary Clinton was secretary of state at the time and Republicans held her personally responsible for not authorizing sufficient security to protect our citizens. It became an enormous political issue as she was preparing to run for president in 2016. 

To that end, in an act of political theater, three years later, in 2015, GOP congressmen hauled Clinton before the House Select Committee On Benghazi and put her through 11 hours of interrogation.

They and nine other congressional committees searched for evidence that Clinton and others in the Obama administration lied about and covered up the truth about the raid. 

None of the investigations turned up any incriminating evidence.

Subsequently, in 2016, Clinton became the Democratic nominee but was defeated by Trump.

Last week when Trump saw photos and videos of the fire-gutted facilities in the U.S. embassy in Baghdad that was attacked last week by Iran-supported Iraqi militia it made him think it was deja vu; but this time he, not Hillary would get the blame for not adequately protecting and defending our embassy and staff. 

The last thing Trump wanted was to be associated in any way with the Clintons, especially Hillary. To be linked to a woman when being accused of not protecting American interests was more than macho, misogynist Trump could bear. And thus he gave the impulsive order to assassinate Suleimani.

This is also a huge political gamble. If the Iranians respond with restraint that could contribute to reelecting Trump. But if things more likely do not go well his already riled isolationist base (including the likes of Fox News' Tucker Carlson) will be even more outraged and some, a few will abandon him. Perhaps enough to contribute to the election of the Democratic candidate.

March 22, 2017--Wag the Dog

If I am right that the Russian-connection dots lead back to Donald Trump, and if we learn that in one way or another he authorized some of his people to collude with their Russian paymasters, this situation is much more serious than any other presidential scandal from Teapot Dome to Watergate to Monic Lewinsky.

If true, expect the master of distraction, out of fear and desperation, to trot out the wag-the-dog defense. Wag the Dog, recall, is the title of a Clinton-era 1997 black comedy in which a political spin doctor (Robert De Nero), days before the presidential election, to distract the public from a sex scandal, hires a film producer (Dustin Hoffman), to stage a fake war with Albania.

It worked. The president is reelected.

What distraction might we expect from our current president?

Minimally, a war with North Korea.

Not that North Korea doesn't deserve serious attention and, who knows, at some point military action to "take out" their nuclear arsenal and missile delivery systems since they are working on developing the capability to reach our west coast cities.

But under unrelenting political pressure and media scrutiny, Trump may ignore the diplomatic approach and reach for the "football" and nuclear codes.

My bet, though, is that he has something more Trump-like in mind. Something more reality-show.

He will fulfill one of his most outrageous campaign pledges--he will get the Attorney General to arrange for Hillary Clinton to be indicted.

That would push everything else off the front pages. There will be no talk about healthcare; no back and forth about defunding Meals On Wheels or Planned Parenthood; no coverage of Judge Neil Gorsuch's Supreme Court nomination hearings; no gossip about Ivanka Trump's new West Wing office; and, most important to Trump, talk will be suspended about his possible involvement with the Russians to undermine the presidential election.

It would be his equivalent of Wag the Dog's fake war with Albania.

"Lock Her Up"