May 6, 2020--Yellow Peril

The one foolhardy thing Trump has not (yet) tried to distract the public and rescue himself from responsibility for making the coronavirus crisis worse is "wagging the dog."

Traditional wagging the dog involves getting the U.S. military involved in a small scale war against a feeble opponent. All designed to elevate presidents' approval ratings. 

Like the small war in Grenada during Ronald Reagan's administration, in Panama when George H.W. Bush was in office, and in Kosovo when Bill Clinton was president and ensnared in a sex scandal.

As in all such situations the message to the world is that America is not to be messed with. More accurately, President So-In-So is a tough dude and not reluctant to carry and use a big stick. 

He might even be represented as a little crazy and thus extra dangerous. With Kissinger shilling for him, Nixon played that card.

In regard to Trump and wagging, keep an eye not on Iran but China. Yes, China. By no means a feeble opponent.

Then why China?

From even before he was elected it has been apparent that Iran is in Trump's crosshairs. He unilaterally abrogated Barack Obama's deal with them to limit for 15 years their nuclear weapons' program and recently there has been an intensification on both sides of saber rattling.

But this emerging confrontation seems to have calmed since Iran-hawk John Bolton (remember him?) left the Trump Cabinet.

The focus now is preposterously shifting to China. Not just to it's cheating in the acquisition of purloined intellectual property and its unfair trade practices, but also in response to our charging them with the intentional fabrication and spread of COVID-19. 

This, in an effort to shift blame from Trump's inability to limit its impact by attributing it to the "Yellow Peril," the way conservatives and American isolationists during the Cold War in a racist way referred to the Chinese Communists.

Secretary of State Pompeo has been mobilized by Trump to assert that there is "enormous evidence" that the virus "originated" in a lab in Wuhan and to imply to the Chinese leadership that unless they cease this behavior the United States is even prepared for military intervention.

In response the Chinese Foreign Ministry has accused the Trump administration, in their words, of "shirking responsibility for their own epidemic and prevention and control measures and divert public attention."

In other words, classic wag the dog. In this case a very big dog but Trump has a big crisis to wish away and an ego out of control that is bigger than the island of Grenada.

January 9, 2020--Trump the Nation Builder

Virtually all presidents shy away from talking positively about nation building. They know from experience and history (a few presidents actually know something about American history) that more frequently than not it doesn't work and that the nation attempting to carry out the nation building usually winds up paying a huge political price.

Lyndon Johnson and Richard Nixon come to mind. Both presidencies collapsed as the result of sinking into the quagmire that was the Vietnam War. 

And then we have George W. Bush who, during the October 2000 presidential debate with Al Gore, when asked by Jim Lehrer about nation building, said--

I think what we need to do is convince people who live in the lands they live in to build the nations. Maybe I'm missing something here. I mean, we're going to have kind of a nation building core from America? Absolutely not. Our military is meant to fight and win wars. That's what it's meant to do. And when it gets overextended, morale drops . . . I strongly believe we need to keep a presence in NATO, but I'm going to be judicious as to how to use the military. It needs to be in our vital interest, the mission needs to be clear, and the strategy obvious.

Then, ignoring his own advice, Bush authorized nation building after invading Afghanistan and Iraq. In both instances this turned out to be an expensive, bloody disaster that to this day many years later continues to fester.

And now we have Trump who as a candidate and later as president spoke contemptuously about his predecessors' nation building efforts.

Trump though now finds himself in an ironic situation. Like it or not, after mocking Obama and Bush he too finds himself supporting nation building in Iraq, Afghanistan, and now Iran where neo-con advisors such as Secretary of State Mike Pompeo have been pressing him to abrogate the de-nuclearization deal struck by Obama and a number of allies and to act more confrontationally.

I refer to current pressures that Trump is placing on Iran as ironic because the demands he is making and the aggressive military actions he has authorized are having unanticipated consequences.

Until Trump turned up the volume of threatening talk, bragging that we have the capacity to bring down the current regime and devastate the country, there were dissident political factions in Iran that might very well, with the right kind of support, have had enough power to challenge the ruling ayatollahs.

But the decision to assassinate general Soleimani so inflamed Iranian national pride that the contesting factions are now fully united in their hatred of Trump and America. Now everyone in Iran is chanting "Death to America."

For this example of nation building they and we have Donald Trump to thank.

October 4, 2019--Benghazi Redux

At taxpayer expense, I am sure, Secretary of State Mike Pompeo and his wife are galavanting around Italy, visiting diplomatic hot spots such as the Vatican Museum and the Sistine Chapel. And yes having a private audience with the Pontiff. 

He also may or may not meet up with Bill Barr, our Attorney General, who is also in Italy, also with his wife. I think more to chow down than carry out Trump's agenda for him--to get dirt on how the hated Mueller investigation got gong. 

The impeachment inquiry spotlight is moving on to the two cabinet secretaries, and I am certain they are happy to be hidden away for the moment in the Hassler. As far from Trump as possible, who in the meantime is again in Florida playing golf.

Did I miss the memo that it's already Spring Break?

When Pompeo finally gets home I have an idea about how to reward him for his loyalty and service to the country. Something that he can include on his resumé as he prepares in four years to run for the presidency. Of the United States--

Now that he has been caught in a baldfaced lie--after denying that he was in fact listening in on Trump's infamous July 25th phone call with the president of Ukraine he was compelled to admit he was and as a result will certainly be called to testify before Adam Schiff's impeachment committee. 

When he does so, I have just the person who should interrogate him, who deserves to do so--Hillary. Yes, that Hillary.

In 2015 Pompeo was a member of Congress and on the House committee that interrogated Hillary Clinton who had been secretary of state when our diplomats were killed in Benghazi. She was questioned for more than eleven hours, most aggressively, most mean-spiritedly by Congressman Pompeo.

Schiff is apparently planning to have most of the questioning of witnesses done by staff and outside council. Like what the Rodino committee did during the Watergate hearings.

Why look any further than Hillary? She qualifies--she's a lawyer and God knows would have the motivation.

I'd pay to be there.

October 2, 2019--What's Up With Australia?

Before we could sit, John Allan said, "What's up with Australia?" His face with his new beard made him look cherubic. His eyes were as lively as I had seen for some time. He looked as if he had shed ten years since we had coffee with him just a few days ago.

"What's up with you?" I asked. 

"I was taking a shower and listening to NPR and they seemed to be talking about Australia. Is anything going on down there?" He was grinning and winking.

"I think I know what you're referring to," I said, "Trump."

"Right you are," John said, clapping his hands, now smiling playfully, "Remember George Papadopoulos? A low-level Trump operative who was stirring around looking for dirt about Hillary for the 2016 election? He somehow managed to meet with a high-level Australian diplomat in London who told him the Russians had stuff that could undermine Hillary's campaign. Including, I think, that the Ukrainians had their hands on a server that held thousands of her emails."

"I'm with you," I said, sliding into the booth.

"So, according to NPR Trump recently asked his cultural conservative pal, the Australian prime minister, Scott Morrison, who rose to prominence by leading the effort to close Australia's borders to refuges and immigrants, Trump asked him if he would help Attorney General, Trump's poodle, Bill Barr, who was traveling the world to gather information about the origins of the Mueller probe."

"He can't give that up," Rona said, "Even though he dodged the Mueller bullet, he's still obsessed with it."

"He never can let go of anything, especially anything critical of him," John said. "Even the smallest things. But that's just the beginning of the breaking news. All afternoon on Monday, beginning about 4 o'clock, there was one bombshell after another. First, we learned that Rudy was subpoenaed by three House committees to turn over to them documents about his Ukraine-related dealings."

"Next," Rona said, "we heard that Secretary of State, Mike Pompeo, was on the line during Trump's call with Ukraine president Zelezney. The 'do-us-a-favor' call that may turn out to be the smoking gun that brings Trump down."

"Then," John said, "there was the breaking news that Barr is on an undisclosed worldwide trip to gather dirt about his own FBI and the CIA. Specifically what they did to undermine Trump and help bring about the Mueller investigation. Barr's in Italy now."

"From the look of him," I said, "he's spending most of his time in trattorias."

"Nasty, nasty," John said, enjoying every word and tidbit of news and gossip, "We could go on," he said.

"I think it's the beginning of the end," Rona said. She's not prone to be optimistic about these matters.

"That's why you're looking so energetic and youthful," I said to John, "It's not just your beard." 

"I got some sleep and woke up at two in the morning, not as usual to anxiasize, but to see if there was any new news since I had gone to bed."

Rona said, "Speaking of sleep, I heard from my sister that my brother-in-law, for the first time in more than two years, had a good night's sleep."

October 1, 2019--2018 Midterms

If one needs evidence about the importance of voting, look no further than the 2018 Midterms.

If people hadn't turned out the Democrats would not have gained control of the House of Representatives and if that hadn't occurred we wouldn't know about Rudy Giuliani freelancing in Ukraine; we wouldn't have learned as we did yesterday that Secretary of State Mike Pompeo was on the line in July when Trump attempted to get the Ukrainian president to come up with dirt about Joe Biden and his son; and we wouldn't have heard about Attorney General Bill Barr's intentional mischaracterization of the Mueller Report and all the other scut work he has done to protect and cover for his president.

And who knows what breaking news there will be today.

So, if you know of anyone who says they are not planning to vote unless Bernie or Mayor Pete or Elizabeth Warren or Joe Biden is nominated, take them aside, put an arm on their shoulder, and remind them of this.

September 12, 2019--Bolting

We were having breakfast together and John Allan said, "With John Bolton no longer the National Security Advisor--whether he resigned or was fired not withstanding--unlike most other high-level changes in the Trump administration, this change will make us feel safer."

"How's that?" Rona asked.

"You remember, don't you, that when Rex Tillerson resigned or was pushed out as Secretary of State and Jim (Mad Dog) Mattis, among many others, quit as Secretary of Defense, we felt more vulnerable as they were supposed to be the adults in the room who would restrain Trump from unilaterally implementing policies that would endanger us, that would make us less safe. Like attacking Iran or North Korea." 

"And?" I said.

"And then," John said, "Trump brought in Bolton to be his third National Security Advisor, the first of whom, Michael Flynn, on the same day Bolton was exiting was in New York facing sentencing for admitting to committing perjury while serving in the White House."

"Yeah, Bolton was a five-year-old to Trump's seven-year-old self. That was our foreign policy team. Two impulsive children, with Bolton being the real mad dog--clinically crazy and in that way making Trump look good by comparison."

"Right," Rona said, "by comparison he would make Trump look reasonable."

"But Bolton," John said, "wasn't happy being anything other than in charge of foreign affairs. He saw himself as a version of Henry Kissinger--Bolton fancied himself the preeminent one in the Trump administration, making foreign and even defense policy." 

"The joke, though, turned out to be on him," I said, "Bolton underestimated how much Trump sees himself as the all-knowing expert on global affairs. And everything else."

John said, "Then there is the actual Secretary of State, Mike Pompeo, who has his own Kissinger-like ambitions."

"With Trump," Rona said, "He will learn, there can be no Kissinger. Except Trump himself. I think as word leaks out about what happened it will turn out that Pompeo did Bolton in. And then of course, Pompeo will be the next to go."

"I wouldn't be surprised," John said. "But back to my point--how Bolton's leaving makes us safer. Unlike, as I said, when, for example, Mattis left we felt less safe. This is because Bolton is a genuine menace. He really wants to start wars all over the globe. Look at the mess he already made in Venezuela. And we know what he had in mind for Iran and North Korea. Wars. With us right in the middle of them. With North Korea, which has atomic bombs and intercontinental missiles."

"These are all good points," Rona said. "With Bolton skulking around the Oval Office and Trump crazier by the day with regard to his reelection chances, we could easily have had a wag-the-dog situation with Bolton urging Trump to start a war to distract the public and to gin up support for him as he faces a tough reelection battle."

With a wink, John said, "I couldn't have said it better. Though, I worry, a war could still happen."

March 24, 2019--Queen Trump

Secretary of State Mike Pompeo and his wife were visiting Lebanon late last week during Purim season.

While there, in an interview with the Christian Broadcasting Network, he was asked if "Mr. Trump was put on earth [by God] as a modern day Queen Esther, who saved the Jews from a Persian official [Haman] in ancient times."

Pompeo, who is an evangelical Christian said, "As a Christian, I certainly believe that's possible."

December 5, 2018--Homebody

Have you noticed that Trump seems to be cutting back on his overseas travel? Way back?

Last month, he skipped three annual summits in Asia--the first time since 2013 that an American president has been absent. He sent Mike Pence in his place and left him on his own to tussle with China's president, Xi Jinping.

And he canceled scheduled visits to Ireland on the way home from the recent G-20 meeting which was held in Argentina.

White House aides said the president was too busy to stop in Bogota, a visit intended as a make up after Trump canceled a trip to Peru and Colombia in the spring. The Ireland stop, which was supposed to be tacked onto a recent trip to Paris, reportedly was to include a check-in at the Trump International Golf Links at Doonbeg. Not even a round of golf on one of his course could lure him.

What's up?

First, he likes to sleep in his own bed. During the 2016 presidential campaign after rallies he almost always flew home to New York City, to Trump Tower, no matter the distance, so he could curl up with his "blanky."

Then, he doesn't do group very well. At the G-20, for example, he had to share some of the spotlight with the other 19 leaders who attended. Considering his ego--always wanting to have the focus on himself--the thought of sharing the stage with his peers likely made his skin curl.

At the G-20, as the time drew near when he could make it back to the security of his bunk in Air Force One, he was caught on a hot mic, barking at one of his aides, "Get me out of here."

Or how fun is it to travel if all the other world leaders dislike him so much (I'm being kind putting it that way)? While away he therefore has no one to schmooze with. 

When in Buenos Aires, how he must have envied seeing Vladimir Putin and Saudi Arabia's murderous dictator MBS (Mohammed bin Salman) high-fiving and having the time of their lives joshing about how they handle dissidents and annoying journalists. One could see the sulking Trump eyeing them enviously.  

For various reasons it would not have been politically wise for there to be an equivalent video of Trump yucking it up with these erstwhile pals.

Also, Trump is scaling back on his overseas travel for fear that one time when he is on another continent there will be a coup back home and he will find himself thrown out of office and Trump Tower converted to public housing.

This is a common concern of dictators where this sort of thing actually happens. For example to Cambodia's Pol Pot and Uganda's Idi Amin.

So look for Pence and Mike Pompeo to be on the road and racking up those frequent flyer miles.

October 11, 2018--October Surprises

In election cosmology an October Surprise is a news event deliberately created, timed, or occurring spontaneously that influences the outcome of an election, particularly for the presidency.

With the upcoming midterm elections, since Donald Trump has kidnapped them and made the hundreds of congressional contests all about him--in effect, a referendum on his presidency--by nationalizing these individual races, it would not be unexpected for him to come up with a whopper of an October Surprise. One that would underscore what he claims to be his achievements (tax cuts, renegotiating NAFTA, withdrawing from the Iran deal, a strong job market) a surprise designed to motivate his base to vote for candidates he supports. Essentially, any and all Republicans running for office.

Recent examples of October Surprises include leaking the news in 2000, when George W. Bush was locked in a tight contest with Al Gore, that some years earlier Bush had been cited in Maine for driving while under the influence.

Four years later, to undermine Bush's reelection chances, Osama bin Laden released a videotape in which he took credit for the 9/11 terrorist attack in the hope that this would remind voters of Bush's failures.

The 2008 stock market crash weakened John McCain's chances in his race against Barack Obama. Republicans in general were blamed and the onset of the Great Recession boosted the chances of all Democrats, especially Obama's. So much so that the Democrats took control of both houses of Congress.

And then most recently, in 2016, it is generally agreed that FBI director James Comey ruined Hillary Clinton's candidacy when in late October he summarily released thousands of emails of hers that, even though they contained nothing disqualifying, reminded the voting public that she was not trustworthy.

What then might Trump have in mind for us during the next few weeks? We know he shapes a daily political drama to dominate the news cycle and thus I suspect there will be at least two surprises of magnitude that will suck up all the media oxygen. I predict there will, unprecedented, be at least two such surprises since for Trump more is never enough.

One will involve foreign affairs, the other will focus on domestic theatrics.

Secretary of State Mike Pompeo recently spent a week in Asia. In China but more interesting in North Korea. After his Korea visit he said little progress was made in denuclearization talks. I wonder.

My guess is that he brought with him for Kim Jong-un one of those love letters Trump mentioned the other day. Letters so steamy that even the exhibitionist president said they were too amorous to disclose.

Trump's to Kim likely included a plea--

"Help me out please! I'm about to get shellacked in the midterm elections and need your help. Maybe you could blow up a big missile or two on live TV. I could then say you're on track to getting rid of all your nukes. Of course that's really unnecessary. I just need a good show one of these mornings. Maybe you could time it so it could be shown on Fox & Friends. My favorite."

Then domestically, a couple of days ago, without a formal announcement, Trump launched the Month of the Woman. It began with UN ambassador Nikki Haley announcing on live TV in the Oval Office that she is resigning. 

There they were, Trump and Haley together shamelessly flirting with each other. 

The Month of the Woman will culminate with Trump appointing Dina Powell, a woman, to replace Haley. Unless Trump can convince daughter Ivanka to allow him to appoint her. One advantage for her--it would get her out of Washington (which she hates) and back to New York City.

Recognizing that the so-called "gender gap" is hovering at about 30 points, some are saying it's not a gap but a chasm, realizing that, Trump will do all sorts of things between now and November 6th to focus on how good his presidency has been for women and then will hope that at least a few will show up at the polls in November and vote for him.

If women come out in a wave of votes for Democrats, he'll need more than a couple of surprises to keep him from being impeached in January. There aren't enough angry old white guys to keep him politically safe. We'll see, then, if he can bamboozle enough women to vote for Republicans as he did in 2016.

I'm saying, more than anything else, Kim has to come through for him.