November 29, 2018--Triple Agent Paul Manafort

Paul Manafort may be all the bad things he has pled guilty to and even worse all that juries have found him guilty of, but though he may not be the shiniest penny, in regard to things important to him (money and power, especially money) he may actually be brilliant.

For someone so seemingly unimpressive he somehow managed to amass millions--tens or hundreds of millions--mainly by finding ways to be of serious service to some of the world's sleaziest operatives in some of the most complicated and corrupt regions of the world. Especially in parts of the former Soviet Union, more specifically, primarily in Ukraine.

He also managed for a while to put on a glittering show of opulent living, with houses and apartments in Manhattan (including in Trump Tower), East Hampton, and Brooklyn as well as his reputed million-dollar bespoke sharkskin wardrobe.

But now we see him being wheeled in and out of courtrooms, looking pathetic in an orange prison jumpsuit, seemingly brought low. But who knows, considering his slimy skills, he may be hatching a way to fool almost everyone and manage to walk away largely unscathed.

This could be because, after working in Eastern Europe where nothing it was it seems and there is someone scheming to cut you down at every turn, he has so mastered the art of subterfuge that he may have found a way to work for the Russians (Putin) and Trump while pretending to be working for Robert Mueller. 

In other words he may have figured out how to operate as a triple agent, playing these three sides against each other. 

And through one of the seams that connect these pieces Manafort may find a way to slither out to some version of freedom.

Working with the Russians, Manafort has more goods on Trump to market that are essential puzzle pieces that fit with the covert material the Russians already have on Trump--remember that dossier and what it allegedly contains about Trump's escapades with, among other transgressions, prostitutes in Moscow. If Manafort working as a secret agent for the Russians is true, think of the resulting additional leverage they have on Trump. It helps explain Trump's wimpy behavior when it comes to anything Putin.

Working concurrently for Trump as his campaign manager (my favorite part--for free) he managed to keep the Trump-Russia collusion going while on the surface doing all the basic gofer things campaign managers routinely do like getting a platform written that everyone can agree to and ultimately ignore.

And then, with Robert Mueller, the very smartest of his handlers, Manafort seemingly turned the tables on Trump to become a valuable resource to the special counsel and his investigators. In that role, other than Trump's boys who know all the family felonies, by ratting on Trump and his inner-inner circle, Manafort could help Mueller connect all the illegal dots while auditioning for the part of star witness before grand juries, congressional committees, and eventual impeachment hearings and criminal trials. For these services Manafort could expect to be rewarded by not having to do any jail time and might even wind up with his own show on Fox News.

That seemed to be where things were headed until a few days ago when Manafort was discovered to have been lying to Mueller's team. As a result Mueller puled the plug on Manafort, leaving the investigation bereft of anyone who could testify with direct knowledge about the BIG picture.

Furthermore, in his role as a secret agent mole within the Mueller operation, a few days ago we learned from Trump's lawyers that Manafort's lawyers have been colluding with them, leaking to Trump's people inside information about the workings and strategies of the Mueller probe. 

When it comes to Manafort so much is complicated and seemingly self-inflicted. 

So much so that most of the print and cable legal analysts are left scratching their heads, frustrated that they can't seem to make sense of Manafort's recent moves--lying to Mueller and his people after making a sweet deal to get a reduced sentence by cooperating truthfully. Apparently  as a result of lying to Mueller, Manafort seems to be facing at least a decade of hard jail time.

It could turn out that Manafort blew it. But it may mean he will be pardoned with gratitude by Trump for undercutting arch-villain Mueller (he will be pardoned in a matter of just weeks) and figure out a way to skulk back to Ukraine where he can live out the rest of his natural life in whatever splendor Ukraine has to offer. This assumes, of course, that he will find a way to keep from getting killed by a Putin hit squad.

In Manafort's line of work, you win some and you lose some.