November 20, 2018--Jack's Take

"I know, you think I've been ignoring you"--that had occurred to me--"Well, I have been. Since Election Day." Jack was on the line. 

"How," Jack said. "did Obama put it after the 2010 midterms? That he and the Democrats took a 'shellacking'? Well, that just happened to us. Republicans in general and Trump and his people specifically. As he put it, it was as if he was on the ballot. Which is true. He made the election all about him and try as he might to spin what happened as a big win it was a disaster."

"I agree with this but frankly I'm surprised you are feeling this way. You prided yourself for having been the first person in town to put out Trump lawn signs. And the first person I know who very early on--when he seemed like a joke--to have predicted that not only would Trump win the nomination but also that he would win the election."

"Well let me then be the first Trump person you know to predict that if he runs for reelection (and that is not a certainty) he will lose. Except for two things."

"What pray tell are those?"

"Number one, if you guys nominate Bernie or, number two, you nominate Warren. Two losers. Even a weakened Trump would easily beat either one of them. They're going to win Pennsylvania or Ohio or Michigan or Florida or Wisconsin? States that the ultimate winner needs to carry? Get real. This is not going to happen with a candidate who will be almost 80 in 2020, who's from Brooklyn originally and now from Vermont, a socialist no less? Or a Harvard professor who's from Massachusetts? From my perspective it should only happen."

"I don't entirely disagree with you," I said, "The Dems this time around were really smart about who they ran for Congress. Military veterans, some in the right places who are social conservatives, a few deficit hawks, some who go to church regularly, and others who support the Second Amendment. Up in Maine one of the Democrats running for the House--and who won, Jared Golden--ran a whole bunch of commercials that included video of him on a rifle range."

"Yeah, they ran a lot of Republicans who pretended to be Democrats."

"Not true," I said, "the people I am talking about are mainly Democratic moderates and they appealed to a lot of people who in the past were called 'Reagan Democrats' because for decades they had voted the straight Democratic ticket but switched to vote for Reagan after the Democrats began to run candidates who were too elitist, too liberal, too out of touch with average people. Like Michael Dukakis."

I continued, "But what about the Mueller investigation? What happens if he issues a report that exposes all sorts of criminal activity carried out by Trump and his family?"

"That would be the best thing that could happen to us."

"What?" I was incredulous, "It's only 10:30 in the morning but have you been drinking?"

"No, and I'm taking my meds." He chuckled, sounding like the old swaggering Jack.

"I'm glad to hear that, but deal with the issue--what will happen when Mueller exposes all sorts of crimes--big ones--backed up with  emails and recordings of cell phone calls and the corroborating testimony of Michael Cohen, Paul Manafort, and a half dozen others? I fail to see how that could that be good news from your perspective."

"Look, it's obvious that all Republican in Congress and the right-wing media are terrified that if they say anything critical of Trump--forget negative--he will support people when they are up for reelection to go after them in primaries. No matter what he does a core of Republicans, maybe half of them, will stick with him and vote as he tells them to vote. Even, remember, if he kills someone on Fifth Avenue. In other words, Trump would primary anyone who says a critical thing about him. At least that's what has them shaking in their boots." He paused to hear my reaction.

"I need to run in a few minutes so could you speed this up?"

"You're back in New York, the Big Satan, for a couple of days and already you're in a rush."

"Well, I am. I happen to have a doctor's appointment."

"Nothing too serious, I hope."

"I'll let you know the next time we talk. But, please, finish your thought about Mueller."

"Simple--his report will give these quivering Republicans political cover."

"I think I see where you're heading with this."

"If Mueller provides conclusive evidence of high crimes and misdemeanors, Republicans will begin to back away from Trump, claiming their behavior--behavior they look forward to displaying since softening up their rhetoric is the only way to save themselves. They will say, 'What are we supposed to do with this mountain of evidence? Ignore it?' They have no choice but to back away from Trump while absolving themselves of blame. They might even fool enough people to win some primaries, rescuing themselves because by 'reluctantly' (put that in quotes) accepting what Mueller reports they will be able to pretend that they were reluctant Trump supporters all along. It will remove what wind is left in Trump's sails. It will be like hiding behind Mueller's skirt. This is why the ever-slippery Lindsay Graham is sounding as if he is uncoupling himself from Trump. He'll soon be on the lookout to find someone new to cuddle up to."

"I can see all of this happening. But why, from your perspective, is this good news? With your boy, Trump being brought down?"

"Here's the dirty little secret." Jack lowered his voice as if not wanting to be overheard. "Because Trump is being exposed as a loser. His whole thing has been to present himself as a winner. Remember during the campaign he kept saying, 'There will be so much winning you'll get tired of winning?'"

"I remember that."

"Well, after Election Day and the Mueller report he won't be able to get away with saying that anymore. Seeing nearly 40 Republican seats in the House flip to Democrats doesn't look like winning. Especially to Republicans in Congress who care only about their version of winning--getting reelected. Wait and see what will happen to Republican senators up for reelection in 2020 if they stay rafted up with Trump."

"But you already have him either not running in two years or if he does defeated by a Dem other than Sanders or Warren. So you have me totally confused about what you think or would like to see happen. Not what Republicans in general or members of Congress are up to. Let me put it to you directly--do you want Trump to be reelected or defeated? Or maybe just disappear?"

Half ignoring me, Jack said, "After last Tuesday there's blood in the water and everyone in Congress knows that. The Mueller report will just be the clincher. But crucial nonetheless since the Republicans can use it to justify their own independence from Trump and will not need to depend on riding his coat tales."

"But," Jack continued, still hushed, "Here's the secret--Trump will lose even to Elizabeth Warren."

"What?" It's that bad for him? I thought you said she or Bernie would lose? Now I'm totally confused."

"To tell you the truth I was trying to make myself feel better. I wasn't thinking things through. I was trying to begin to reconcile myself to a very unpleasant situation. The prospect of Warren or Sanders in the White House."

"But, remember me and my lawn signs," Jack said, "In the prediction business I have a pretty good track record. Though next time around things won't turn out so good."

"Again, what are you predicting? We're on the phone but I can feel you smiling. Like you're playing with me. And now I have to go, without enough time to be able to figure out what you're saying about your own position."

"Good luck with the doctor," he said, laughing and hanging up.